What is the direction of highest probability today? (05/11/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

12:00PM GMT – BoE rate decision

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If the Bank of England raises interest rates, we could see the Pound shoot for the stars

If the Bank of England lowers interest rates, we could see how the Pound gets pounded. I will not be surprised if we see a cut. Remember the low GDP figure we saw last month?

12:45PM GMT – ECB rate decision

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If the European Central bank raises interest rates, we could see the EUR move higher although this is highly unlikely

If they cut interest rates, the EUR could fall considerably. I do not think they would do anything. Listen to the speech afterwards by Pres. Trichet. Maybe the market could move then if it has not moved yet..

Probability Studies:

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Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4820
Bearish Probability below:1.4820
Significant support: 1.4820, 1.4660
Significant resistance:none

Direction of  Highest Probability: NA
Bearish Probability below: 1.6267
Bullish Probability above: 1.6570
Significant resistance: 1.6570, 1.6625
Significant support:1.6056, 1.6267

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9100, 0.9130
Bullish Probability above: 0.9130
Significant resistance: 0.9130, 0.8940
Significant support:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 90.35
Bearish Probability below: 90.35
Significant support: 90.35
Significant resistance:90.25

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This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan