by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)
Key events today:
12:00PM GMT – BoE rate decision
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If the Bank of England raises interest rates, we could see the Pound shoot for the stars
If the Bank of England lowers interest rates, we could see how the Pound gets pounded. I will not be surprised if we see a cut. Remember the low GDP figure we saw last month?
12:45PM GMT – ECB rate decision
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If the European Central bank raises interest rates, we could see the EUR move higher although this is highly unlikely
If they cut interest rates, the EUR could fall considerably. I do not think they would do anything. Listen to the speech afterwards by Pres. Trichet. Maybe the market could move then if it has not moved yet..
Probability Studies:
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Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4820
Bearish Probability below:1.4820
Significant support: 1.4820, 1.4660
Significant resistance:none
Direction of Highest Probability: NA
Bearish Probability below: 1.6267
Bullish Probability above: 1.6570
Significant resistance: 1.6570, 1.6625
Significant support:1.6056, 1.6267
Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9100, 0.9130
Bullish Probability above: 0.9130
Significant resistance: 0.9130, 0.8940
Significant support:
Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 90.35
Bearish Probability below: 90.35
Significant support: 90.35
Significant resistance:90.25
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This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory
Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system
within.
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http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class
Enjoy and good luck!
Johan
Please if you dont know what you are talking about in fundamentals dont write about. You making the company look bad and the other sites your article feeds too…I saw this at another site and decided to make my rounds
what??? ECB cutting rates, BOE cutting rates? please make sure you catch up on the fundamentals… nobody is looking at interest rates, specially for the bank of england…. maybe you meant to say QE, but clearly not….
Fair enough. They will most probably keep rates at 0.5 and everyone knows what are their intentions pertaining to QE
I write my articles in an “educational fashion” sometimes where I explain “what would happen if this is done and what would happen if that is done”
A 25 basis point cut could still happen although it is highly unlikely as no one expects this to happen. Nevertheless, I (Johan Kriek) would not be surprised if we see a 25bp cut and if there is a cut we could see the pound go South alot
The same applies to the ECB but still a rate cut cannot be ruled out.
Why do I have to speculate of what exactly these Central banks will do? I merely told you that currency prices could rise if we see a hike and currency prices could fall if we see a cut
The fact that I will not be surprised if the BoE cuts rates is merely my own view
I hope you make a serious amount if pips today and you are always more than welcome to reply to my articles and post your views