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EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 02

swibowo — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 05:06:38 +0000

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: September 02

swibowo — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 04:57:33 +0000

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 108.59 and closed at 108.13. As you can see on my h4 chart below, overall price is in bullish correction phase after bottomed at 105.43 and making a bullish channel. Immediate resistance at the minor trend line resistance (red) and 108.59. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 109.20/50 region. Immediate support at 107.65. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 106.57 but as long as price move inside the bullish channel the upside correction scenario remains intact.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also corrected higher yesterday, but still unable to break above 130.80 resistance so far. Potential range at 130.80 – 128.65. Break above 130.80 could trigger further upside correction towards 132.00 before testing the upper line of the bearish channel but as long as price move inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains bearish. On the downside, we need a break below 128.65 to continue the bearish scenario testing 126.75.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above 0.9040 resistance area, topped at 0.9113 but traded lower around 0.9070 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9145. Another move below 0.9040 could lead us into neutral zone with potential downside pullback testing 0.8950/60 region but as long as price move inside the bullish channel and above 0.8858 key support area I still prefer a bullish scenario.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 02

swibowo — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 04:49:54 +0000

GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday on broad Dollar weakness, topped at 1.5489 and closed at 1.5451. The major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we could have another potential upside correction testing the trend line resistance (red) and 1.5525 – 1.5575 area especially if price break above 1.5489. Immediate support at 1.5385. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.5326 before targeting 1.5250 region.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 02

swibowo — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 04:44:27 +0000

USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.67 but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed higher at 84.43. Potential range area at 84.82 – 83.59 but still within a major bearish scenario. Break above 84.82 could trigger further upside pressure but only a move above the trend line resistance could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 02

swibowo — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 04:32:31 +0000

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0065 but closed higher at 1.0156 and keep moving higher around 1.0175 at the time I wrote this comment. On daily chart below we can see that although yesterday’s price action not really made a hammer candle stick formation for potential upside pullback, but the fact that price is now back above 1.0130 could trigger further upside correction testing 1.0220 area as bearish pressure may have exhausted. Break above 1.0220 could trigger further upside momentum testing the trend line resistance (red). The major scenario remains bearish but we need a consistent move below 1.0130 to see further bearish pressure testing 1.0030.

EUR/USD Daily Review 1 Sep 10

ltan — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:09:04 +0000

Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view EUR/USD Reviews.

Good day forex trading koalas.

Today is mid week and i hope you are harvesting your pips!

In our last review, i mentioned that the lower personal income in the US may bear a burden on the US economy as consumer spending may lessen too. The general sentiment was rather negative as investors worried about the recovery of the economy.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, the currency pair seems to be done with ranging for now and has since shot up.

S&P 500 is advancing and is now at 1078+.

Oil is around $73+.

Gold remains elevated at $1246+. This is a reminder that we may not be quite out of the woods yet as gold is often a popular investment during times of uncertainty.

***

Better than expected industrial data from both of the world’s economic giant, the US and China brought upon a wave of positive sentiments. Investors were negative and this turn out of positive economic data probably triggered a knee jerk reaction. Joining on the party is Australia as the country posted economic expansion from the first quarter.k

On the employment front, the US remains weak as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out worst than expected. While the media is not focusing on this for now, always keep a look out for reversal. The unemployment crisis in the US remains and threatens to derail the recovery.

From a technical point of view, the 1.28 line may be a tough nut to crack.

Tomorrow brings us data such as the Euro Zone Minimum Bid Rate and US pending home sales.

Trade Safely.

***

Do you like Twilight? While i find the story a little too much of a fantasy, i must say the romance experienced by Edward and Bella leaves me smiling to my self. ( P/S Jacob is handsome ! )

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view EUR/USD Reviews.

Mid-week Trading Update (September 1, 2010)

amustapha — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 13:36:51 +0000

“… It is intuitive to stay with losing trades; it is counter-intuitive to have a stop loss and to embrace small losses. It is intuitive to get out of winning trades too soon; it is counter-intuitive to let your winners run. It is intuitive to enter a trade in the direction of the price action after an extended rally or sell-off; it is counter-intuitive to wait for the imbalance of buyer and sellers to go against the herd. And, it is intuitive to pile on multiple indicators in an effort to get as much information as possible; it is counter-intuitive to reduce and simplify incoming data. Default thinking is often intuitive; it follows naturally occurring biases, which make it difficult to follow-through with pre-determined objectives.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Hello:

This is an update on some of the movements on the markets and what I’m doing about them, plus our losses and profits. The analyses are based on daily charts, looking at the Big Picture, though my entries are on a smaller timeframe. My preferred leverage is 1:100 and our position size is 0.01 lots for each $1000. My maximum drawdown in a week is 3% (worst case scenario). I use the Price Behavior rules for strategic decisions and customized indicators for tactical entries. I open primary positions without predetermined exit target in mind, riding the trend for as long as it continues. The value of patience will forever be emphasized. As long as we stick to our rules and keep our risk low, we’re immune to fear.

We need to trade like an insurance company to ensure our ultimate survival, because over time the insurance company will make more money than the insured. We’re fortunate to have so many vehicles at our disposal, but we need to know the right time to utilize them and protect and insure ourselves against risks.

AUDUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
I plan to buy at 0.8755 and ride it till I’m stopped out. Despite the fact that the trend has been bearish, there are many factors pointing to possible bullish correction or reversal. Just note that the present bearish trend is weak.

NZDUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The present overall trend has been bearish for a few weeks. Price level 0.6950 was tested before a temporary bullish correction and it stands the possibility of being tested again, after which the price is expected to move up.
Order: Buy Limit
Entry date: September 1, 2010
Entry price: 0.6940
Initial stop: 0.6790
Current stop: N/A
Exit price: N/A
Exit date: N/A
Status: Pending
Profit/loss: N/A
Percentage growth: N/A

EURCAD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is no open order on this cross right now. The high spread on it is simply not a significant since I only go for long-term trades, looking for hundreds of pips. I’m looking for a serious turning point on the market. For example, I may sell at 1.3700 if the price eventually gets there.

EURAUD
Primary trend: Bearish
Price level 1.4150 was tested and broken before the market went up. It’s assumed that the market would retrace and even test the strong support at 1.4100 before going up. The price could even push further lower in the present bearish scenario (as indicated by the SMA &ADX, and eventually the EURAUD is supposed to shoot up.
Order: Buy Limit
Entry date: September 1, 2010
Entry price: 1.4090
Initial stop: 1.3840
Current stop: N/A
Exit price: N/A
Exit date: N/A
Status: Pending
Profit/loss: N/A
Percentage growth: N/A

EURNZD
Primary trend: Bullish
It’s better to stay way from this cross for now until it hits a strong level where the turning potential is high. It’s unthinkable to hear how certain eccentrically superstitious people are about the markets. Someone went to a soothsayer to know what he could do to stop the consistent losses he was experiencing on the markets. The soothsayer told him that since the markets were controlled by demons, he needed to sacrifice a goat to conciliate the demons in other to make consistent profits from the markets. Readers, should I slaughter a goat when I finally see a signal on EURNZD? Or don’t you want me to make a profit? LOL!!! It’s extremely absurd indeed.

AUDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
Bullish correction was rejected when the price hit 77.50. I’m looking forward to a possible long trade when the price hits 73.45, though other factors have to be taken into consideration.

Conclusion: False breakouts are no longer a curiosity and sustained trends are rather a rare find. It shouldn’t be forgotten that though all strategies will face stubborn challenges on the markets, good risk management will help them survive. So trading isn’t how much money you make – it’s how much you don’t lose.

Please, I’d like to conclude with this quote:

“To be blunt, over time, the capital of those who fall for the illusion trap typically ends up in the bank accounts of those who focus on the reality of pure supply and demand in markets. The objective supply and demand relationship in markets is revealed most clearly in price and price alone.” – Sam Seiden

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

Nice trading tips are available at: www.ituglobalforex.com
And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Strong Australian and Chinese Reports Boost The Euro

mcarniol — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 11:59:21 +0000

Better than expected reports on Australian GDP and Chinese manufacturing gave a predictable lift to the Australian dollar against the USD. But the reports also helped the euro reach its best level in nearly two weeks of trading. Why?

Aussie GDP grew by 1.2% in the April to June period from the previous three months, when it rose a revised 0.7 %. Much of the increase was attributed to China’s insatiable demand for coal and iron ore. Overall exports gained by 5.6%, adding 1.1 percentage points to overall GDP. Amazingly, real gross domestic income rose 4.0%, the largest quarterly growth since March 1973. Real net national disposable income increased by 5.1% in the quarter and by 9.5% over the past four.

Australia is incredibly productive as well; Unit labor costs in real terms decreased by 0.2%, and indication that inflation will stay relatively muted.

In China, The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.7 from 51.2. July’s reading had been the weakest since February 2009. All in all, the number is an indication that manufacturing in China may have reached its lowest point and is due to increase in coming months.

So, why did all this news from the other side of the world affect EUR/USD?

The reason lays with the reports effects on S&P futures, which are a reliable guide for movement in EUR/USD. S&P futures, like the spot FX market, moves throughout the day (except between 5pm and 6pm ET). The euro moves with S&P futures just as it moves with the actual S&P 500 during its trading hours in NY, and these reports helped S&P futures to a gain of just over 1% in overnight markets.

I’m writing this article about two hours before the Institute for Supply Management’s report on manufacturing, which is due out at 10am ET. Should that report print worse than economists’ expectations (53.2) you can expect to see things reverse very quickly, i.e. the euro and Australian dollar will fall against the USD as the S&P 500 retreats (assuming an absence of unexpected positive news). But look especially at the employment index within the report; should that slide for a second month you might really see traders become even more risk-averse than they generally are.

Things will probably reverse very quickly on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports on the August job numbers. Expect to see the report show a gain or actual loss of private sector jobs of 10,000 either way. The reason I say this is because of the report on weekly unemployment claims which came out on August 19, which showed that there were 500,000 new claims.

The BLS report is the result of a survey that is taken over a one week period and in August, that week coincided with the August 19th report on unemployment claims. As it happens, that reading was the worst in many weeks and had risen from a low of 438,00, which means the trend in new private sector jobs has to be moving lower.

Therefore, I suspect that new private sector jobs will grow by 10,000 or so, at best, and that an outright loss of about 10,000 is well within the realm of possibility. What’s interesting is how the market might react.

Because Mr. Bernanke conditioned the Fed’s response to a lack of employment growth “regardless of the risks of deflation,” we could see the dollar weaken dramatically should these numbers prove to be correct. Why? Because the market could assume that a weak report on jobs will lead to another round of “electronic printing” by the Federal Reserve.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 01

swibowo — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 05:37:13 +0000

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. From another perspective on h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a triangle formation indicating consolidation but the main scenario remains to the downside. Immediate support at 1.2620/30 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2587 – 1.2523. Initial resistance at 1.2742 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.2825 as the triangle is broken to the upside.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: September 01

swibowo — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 05:27:09 +0000

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price slipped above 107.65 but whipsawed to the downside, hit 106.24 and closed at 106.73. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in a major bearish scenario. On h1 chart below we have a rising wedge formation. Break above the formation could trigger further upside momentum re-testing 107.65 and 108.25. On the other hand break below the formation could continue the bearish scenario testing 105.43.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 128.65 but traded higher around 129.54 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 130.50 followed by 130.80. Break above 130.80 could trigger further upside correction but as long as price move inside the major bearish channel I still prefer a bearish scenario. On the downside, break below 128.65 could continue the bearish scenario testing 126.75.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday but had some upside pressure earlier today in Asian session. I have made adjustment to the bullish channel, connecting the lower line of the channel to key support 0.8858 which has been a strong support preventing further bearish attack and keep the bullish scenario intact. Immediate resistance at 0.9040. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.9145.