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Articles by Mark De La Paz

September 16th, 2014 @ 3:39 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPYDaily

Monday’s USDJPY turned out to be a bearish Harami with the pattern suggesting we risk a pullback in today’s trade. True that with the 4th quarter a mere two weeks away we have increased speculation that the BoJ’s Kuroda may finally be in a position to pursue his quantitative agenda, we may have seen a move that is too fast too soon. With the preceding days seeing smaller real bodies the suggestion is momentum for the upside has dissipated with a push to prior highs serving as an opportunity to short from a better vantage point. Note we will be hearing from the BoJ Governor at 0530GMT, just under two hours as of this posting.

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September 15th, 2014 @ 9:44 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSDDaily

 

Friday’s attempt to cover the gap from last weeks open turned into a hanging man by the close of markets in New York. Asian traders meanwhile appear to have been reading a Morgan Stanley that said be wary of a  UK rally as the big referendum date nears and the consequences of a yes vote set in for the majority of the people in Scotland. Sovereignty may be all well and good for the Scottish politicians but people need their pensions and the trend in Geopolitics is bigger is better. For now we remind people of the big date, September 18 where a No vote is the kind of reassurance that global markets need and will likely be kicking Cable into a quick reversal or recent losses. As for the Yea we may have already priced in a big chunk of the downside as governments will likely be reasonable enough to negotiate and orderly separation else just end up ruining both countries future prospect’s. The UK’s more than Scotland.

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August 29th, 2014 @ 8:06 am by Mark De La Paz

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Normally I do not believe that there is such a thing a a sure bet but when a central banks reputation is at stake then there is a lot on the line. While its true that a central bank is not all powerful nor is it infallible, recall George Soros and the Bank of England in the nineties, more than most players in the market it has the ability to consistently influence pries. And this take us to EURCHF, the open hostility between Russian forces and Ukraine’s security apparatus in rebel held territory has seen markets on the edge for risk aversion. This has meant that for the pair we have seen an acceleration of losses for the swiss franc. Yet the SNB has a standing commitment of a floor for the pair at 1.2000 and unlike the Soros / BoE tussle which saw the latter lose badly it is far more easier for a central bank to weaken a currency than to strengthen it. The latter needs credibility and actual demand by external parties to see a stronger currency. To weaken you need only resolve to print money ideally as inflation pressures are nil.

EURCHFWeekly

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August 28th, 2014 @ 2:22 pm by Mark De La Paz

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Just a grab on the Ukraine story:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – Russia is no longer leading the fighting in Ukraine “from behind,” a senior military officer from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said Thursday. “It is more overt now,” the official told Dow Jones Newswires. NATO says Russia has “well over” 1,000 troops operating in Ukraine now, and Ukraine on Thursday accused Russia of having seized a coastal town and several villages near the border with Russia. “It is clear that Russia is not willing to accept the defeat of the separatists,” Dow Jones Newswires quoted the officer as saying. “It will most likely do anything it takes to prevent such a defeat.” Russia has said any Russians fighting with the separatists are volunteers, but the officer said these are organized fighters. “You can have a rabble of people holding guns, or you can have an effective fighting force. And what we have here is the latter,” the officer said. A U.S. diplomat on Thursday called Russian claims that it is not destabilizing Ukraine “absurd.”

Looks like e are building an exuse for Gold to make a run one the 61.8 Fib retracement of the sell off the pat two months, at 1317.51. Such a move would also mean we trigger a descending wedge with a classic resistance breakout. The question here really is just what will the west do? Any hints of additional support in the military front by Europe and the US would be just the catalyst that’s needed to get things moving.

 

XAUUSDDaily

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August 28th, 2014 @ 10:16 am by Mark De La Paz

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Ukrainian President Poroshenko has cancelled a trip to Turkey to meet with the country’ defense council. Coinciding with the Ukraine Government’s tweeting of Novoazovsk falling to separatist hands and previous reports of Russian troops inside the country this is now being describe as a ‘Russian Invasion’.

Knee jerk response has been broad based gains for the Japanese Yen and Swis Fran with the dollar also coming off its earlier lows. Still for us to get more the the daily averages we will need third party confirmation on these developments. Focus now will be for the more exposed majors EURJPY and GBPJPY though it would also be interesting to see what the SNB will do as pries near its floor of 1.2000 for EURCHF.

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February 11th, 2014 @ 1:17 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8969 moderate / 0.9004 moderate / 0.9045 minor
Support: 0.8937 moderate / 0.8912 moderate / 0.8880 moderate

Aussy ended up with a ‘hanging man’ at the close monday as market saw little conviction with data elsewhere turning out weak in line with the US results Friday. For the moment we have prices stuck in between the EMAs while other indicators has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up, looking to push through the zero line. Note daily price charts show a fractal with its top a false break of the 55D EMA. Latest releases has Aussy numbers mixed with Business Confidence picking up reading 8 though house inflation pressures has eased and home loans contracted. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals out of the 4H charts while hourly indicators has a confluence of buys courtesy of data, stochastic crossing up while macd pushes clearly past the zero-line. That said we are looking for a test of the fractal highs at most the psychological resistance at 0.9000 and shorts there after.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3701 moderate / 1.3739 moderate / 1.3776 moderate
Support: 1.3649 minor / 1.3615 moderate / 1.3595 minor

Euro is seeing a strong start for Tuesday with a follow through to our trend line breakout, mondays close managing tostay above the resistance line off swing highs at 1.3893. Among indicators we have daily stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is looking to push up through the zero line. At this point we appear set tomake a run for the 1.3740 highs from January. From the lower timeframes we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic in both hourly and 4H charts looking to push back above the 80 threshold while macd’s are also heading up. Note we appear to be seeing markets attempting to price in a dovish sounding Janet Yellen in her first testimony as Fed Chairperson.

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February 10th, 2014 @ 1:35 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 139.94 moderate / 140.34 minor / 140.71 minor
Support: 139.50 minor / 139.04 moderate / 138.82 minor

At the close we have EURJPY around Friday highs just through the R1 then as markets expect the Fed’s taper to get bogged down with the weak Jobs numbers and equities rally on the idea. We appear to be seeing a follow through to Tuesday’s piercing pattern and the subsequent hammer off 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from November 07 of last year. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s at brink of a bullish cross over. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with the weeks open a slight upside gap while indicators show 4H stochastic oscillating around overbought areas and macd head up. Hourly charts has stochastic just off overbought levels and macd still heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for better pricing. Consider buys off the daily pivot particular if Asian equities see a strong start for the week. Note we have prices around the 21D and 34D EMA’s in need of a daily close above it.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3633(43) moderate / 1.3667 minor / 1.3703 minor
Support: 1.3611 moderate / 1.3585 minor / 1.3560 moderate

Euro managed to close Friday around its highs following the weak NFP numbers out of the US to see us just below the January bear channel resistance line for the moment. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing through the overbought barrier while macd also has a bullish crossover. Note we have prices just above the daily pivot after opening well inside the real body for Friday’s candle. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys as stochastic pushes back into overbought levels while macd is heading up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd above the signal line though we also appear to be topping off. We are maintaining a bullish view for the Euro though with little sense of urgency. Look for long hourly tails with real bodies still above the daily pivot, 1.3611 to signal that bulls are beginning to come in. Alternatively a push past Fridays highs at 1.3643 signals a bullish entry.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6418 moderate / 1.6454 moderate / 1.6488 moderate
Support: 1.6378 moderate / 1.6344 moderate / 1.6317 minor

After seeing long tails in the daily charts since Tuesday we finally saw Cable breaking higher courtesy of poor US jobs data. At the close we find prices just under the days highs and still just below the 21D EMA after crossing through the 55D and 34D EMA’s heading up. Despite the rally daily indicators see a mixed view as stochastic heads up while macd’s are still pointing lower just under the zero-line. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with side-by-side white candles in the making, a bullish continuation pattern while stochastic is overbought and macd’s have just pushed through the zero-line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading down and macd flat above the signal line. For the moment we have little sense of urgency through a push past the 21DEMA may be taken as an excuse to go long looking for a follow through rally.

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January 31st, 2014 @ 2:00 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1249.53 moderate / 1256.54 moderate / 1261.09 moderate
Support: 1241.72 minor / 1235.54 moderate / 1231.47 moderate

Gold saw a big sell-off Thursday pushing under the daily EMA lines and dragging indicators into a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for the over areas while macd has a new bear cross. Note overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. Recall we are in a rejection from the 38.2 fib retracement level of our sell-off from August. Intraday we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd has sold off. Hourly charts however suggests pullback risk with stochastic trying to cross up and macd seeing a bullish cross. For now we remain sidelined waiting for a break of 1241.72 to get the bears going.Key test will be the support at 1235.54 break of which opens the December congestion floor.

Aussy
Resistance: 0.8825 moderate / 0.8854 minor / 0.8890 moderate
Support: 0.8768 moderate / 0.8735 moderate / 0.8711 moderate

Aussy saw a rally Thursday closing around the days highs with indicators showing stochastic heading up and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. We are however well resisted at the 0.8825 region and by the daily EMA lines. Indicators however show a confluence of buys a bullish divergence in stochastic and a new bullish crossover in macd. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with the 4H stochastic in overbought areas while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s rising. At this point Aussy is well resisted though the bullish indicators suggests we probe the daily EMA’s. That said our preference may beto just play the crosses looking for an attempt in the topside in Aussy and a bearish Euro to see a big drop in EURAUD.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.5408 minor / 1.5495 moderate / 1.5552 minor
Support: 1.5321 moderate / 1.5232 moderate / 1.5148 moderate

At the close we have EURAUD at around the 23.6 Fib retracement level of our rally from November and the days lows. Note overall trend remains bullish though projected lows should be around our moderate support of 1.5232. Among indicators we have daily stochastic looking to push oversold while macd’s also see a bear cross. In intradat charts we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping while in the hourly scale we have stochastic oscillating around oversold areas suggesting a bear trend. Hourly macd’s for their part are below zero and the signal line. Given the big sell-off consider shorting at push below the 1.5321 S1 our objective 1.5232 projected lows and previous low as well.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3588 minor / 1.3632 moderate / 1.3658 minor
Support: 1.3545 minor / 1.3500 psychological / 1.3466 minor

Thursday saw steady sell-off in EURUSD taking us under the daily EMA’s for what could be a resumption of the overall bearish tone closing the day just around its lows. Note we now have Euro just above the floor for January’s consolidation. Daily indicators are seeing a new confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is crossing lower. From the lower time-frames we have stochastic in oversold areas for the 4H charts while macd is dropping though we need a catalyst for the next drop as momentum has faltered. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic trying to come off overbought levels while macd has a bullish crossover. For now remain sidelined waiting for a break of the 1.3545 area then a move down through S1 from pivots along with the months lows and psychological support at 1.3500/10.

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