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Articles by Mark De La Paz

September 13th, 2013 @ 1:54 am by Mark De La Paz

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XAUUSD
Resistance: 1333.69 minor / 1337.84 moderate / 1347.09 moderate
Support: 1327.98 minor / 1320.47 minor / 1309.91 moderate

With the US Sec.of State Kerry heading in Geneva for negotiating the Syrian disarmament with his Russian counterparts we have Gold selling off sharply as geopolitical risks are reduced. Note the weeks sell-off has taken XAUUSD down to its head and shoulder target of 1323.62. Indicator wise we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is looking to ease under the zero-line. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oversold while macd is also heading lower. From the hourly picture we have stochastic poised to push overbought and macd with a new bullish crossover. Note we have a piercing pattern from the 4H candles which suggest we look for a push higher. Today being Friday and with ongoing geopolitical issues over the weekend we risk position squaring, a bounce to the 1347.09 region 38.2 fib of our sell-off.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.75 minor / 133.02 moderate / 133.38 moderate
Support: 132.37 moderate / 131.88 moderate / 131.37 minor

Thursday ended up with a long tail as markets bounced following the open of the US and we saw more delays on the planned US air strikes in Syria. Daily indicators retain a bullish bias as macd’s stay above the signal lines and the zero threshold even as EMA lines point up though stochastic is once more trying to come off overbought levels. In 4H charts we have mixed signals as stochastic heads up along with price action while macd remains bearish, we had a dragon fly doji from the European midday break. Hourly charts has an overbought stochastic while macd is looking to push up through the zero line. With a bullish overall bias consider a buy on dips to the 132.37 region.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9281 moderate / 0.9318 moderate / 0.9355 minor
Support: 0.9255 minor / 0.9209 moderate / 0.9177 moderate

Aussy saw a bearish engulfing with yesterdays close as attempts to bounce failed to hold their highs, withthe coming weekend and event risks we now face a potential technical correction. From indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is also topping out, we risk mean reversion play after a two week rally. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic heads upcoming off oversold levels while macd for its part is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is flat above the signal line. It appears that there is little sense of urgency with the pairs though given the engulfing candle we favor looking for further weakness. Consider shorts on a push below 0.9255,our objective the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our rally the past two weeks at 0.9177, projected lows are at 0.9180. Note we are equally willing to buy on an hourly close above 0.9281.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5805 moderate / 1.5839 moderate / 1.5891 moderate
Support: 1.5772 moderate / 1.5743 minor / 1.5685 moderate

Cable saw a consolidation as attempts for a follow through surged failed to see prices stay above 1.5820 the previous weekly double top breakout point. From indicators we remain bullish with stochastic overbought still though seeing a cross while macd is still heading up, price action suggests a loss of momentum. From the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd also has a new bear cross, note we have prices under the daily pivot to underscore the down siderisks. In hourly charts we have stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also heading lower. Note after a sharp rally the past two weeks, and given signs of loss momentum along with the weekend our objective for now is to trigger the hourly double  top and possibly get a mean reversion play going.

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September 12th, 2013 @ 1:37 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5828 minor / 1.5862 moderate / 1.5895 moderate
Support: 1.5790 moderate / 1.5751(55) moderate / 1.5718 minor

After a quiet Asian trade Cable spiked up on more good news from the UK with stronger jobs growth and the unemployment rate easing to 7.7%. We now have GBPUSD back inside the double top range from August of last year to earlier in January. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is heading up. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing back into overbought levels while macd is also on the rise. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish stochastic with macd also seeing a new bear cross as we spent much of the rest of the day in consolidation following the data spike. At this wewe prefer to continue playing the buy side with a buy on dips to the daily pivot at 1.5790 or on a push past 1.5828.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.37 moderate / 133.80 minor / 134.53 moderate
Support: 132.79 minor / 132.42 moderate / 131.91 moderate

EURJPY saw a tight range play Wednesday with USDJPY dragging the pair lower even as EURUSD surged up. At the moment we have prices taking outthe immediate uspport at 132.79 though we face a moderate support at 132.42 and have very little news to move the market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crossing lower though still overbought while MACD for its part is still heading up. In the lower time-frames we are seeing calls for a pullback with 4H stochastic easing to oversold areas while macd has also seen a new bear cross. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also poised to drop under the zero line. Immediate risk calls for a bear market an hourly close under 132.79 maybe seen as a potential entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3324 moderate / 1.3344 moderate / 1.3363 minor
Support: 1.3307 minor / 1.3281 moderate / 1.3263 moderate

In the end we saw Euro with a strong rally Wednesday closing just under its highs following a surge in New York trade after a very tight range game in Asia and Europe. We now have daily stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is waiting to push back up above the zero line. From the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing into overbought areas in the 4H picture while macd’s are also rising. Hourly charts for their part are also seeing a confluence of buys as stochastic heads back up and macd stay above the signal line though looks flat. Price action itself suggests the market is waiting for a catalyst given the mostly ranging action. For now, look for a close above 1.3324 for a possible bullish entry with targets at 1.3385.

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September 11th, 2013 @ 1:55 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9318 strong / 0.9344 moderate / 0.9371 minor
Support: 0.9282 moderate / 0.9245 moderate / 0.9217 moderate

Aussy saw further gains as we got a follow through to the inverted head and shoulder breakout from Friday with data out of China and Australia itself showing marked improvement from the prior months trends. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought areas while macd’s are pushing and he EMA lines begin to see new golden crosses. Note we are once more looking at Aussy data, with Consumer Sentiment up for release at 0030GMT. In the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals as 4H charts remain bullish stochastic crawling overbought though macd is flat above the signal while hourly charts has a bear cross in macd and stochastic oversold. Price action itself has a ‘dark cloud cover’ in 4H charts. Immediate risk calls for a pull back though with the overal picture and changing economic trends we prefer a buy on dips to 0.9245 or follow through rally past 0.9318.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 93.57 moderate / 93.89 moderate / 94.43 minor
Support: 92.94(04) moderate / 92.30 moderate / 92.01 minor

Tuesday saw a sharp follow through rally for AUDJPY with prices nearing the daily double bottom target from Tuesday the previous week. Among indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd’s are also on the rise confirming the idea of a bullish trend even as EMA lines now have the 21D EMA crossing 55D EMA forming more golden crosses. Intraday we also have more bullish signals in the 4h charts with stochastic crawling overbought and macd heading up. hourly charts though is suggesting pullback risk with stochastic dropping and macd’s seeing a new bear cross. At this point we are looking forward to see a further rally a bullish cross in hourly stochastic could be our signal though we need to point that we are already within reach of the double bottom target.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.46 minor / 100.68 moderate / 100.88 moderate
Support: 100.07 moderate / 99.69 moderate / 99.34 moderate

With Syria reportedly agreeing to turnover its chemical weapons stockpile and the risk of a September taper now much reduced we have equity markets picking up once more and with the Yen pairs rallying. USDJPY Tuesday saw a bullish breakout closing past the previous swing highs from Wednesday last week at 100.22. Indicators show stochastic overbought in the daily having pushed back up monday while macd’s are also rising. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in 4h charts stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd’s pushing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also dropping. It appears that the 100.30 78.6 Fib retracement for the July sell-off is holding for now though overall trend remains bullish. At this point we would like to focus more on a buy on dips to 100.07 possibly 99.69 on a bullish cross from hourly stochastic or if we have along tail in the hourly chart.

Gold
Resistance: 1366.79 minor / 1370.34 moderate / 1382.90 moderate
Support: 1359.61 moderate / 1353.50 moderate / 1347.09 moderate

Gold saw a sharp sell-off Tuesday as the threat of an immediate military action in Syria has been averted with the US willing to pursue Russian proposal on dealing with the chemical weapons. With the Tuesday drop we are once more seeing a valid SHS breakout with the pattern target down to 1323.68. Indicators show stochastic poised to push oversold while daily macd is dropping and prices are currently back under the 55D EMA. In the intraday picture we have a bearish bias as 4H stochastic looks to push back under the oversold threshold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a new bear cross in stochastic with macd looking for its own bearish crossover. For now we are at a possible short just under the 1359.61 immediate support, our target is at 1347.09.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5754 moderate / 1.5781 moderate / 1.5811 minor
Support: 1.5719 moderate / 1.5685(95) moderate / 1.5650 minor

We continue to see further gains in Cable though yesterdays ranges was tighter. From the daily charts we saw new highs and a close just beneath 1.5744. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing overbought and macds with a new bullish cross. In the lower time frames we have 4h stochastic in overbought areas though at risk of coming off while macd is bullish. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic rising and macd’s flat below the signal line. Overall trend remains bullish in Cable as data out of the UK outpaces that of other G7 economies though there is little sense of urgency. For now look for buys off 1.5719, the daily pivot, should price action warrant or on a push past 1.5754.

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September 10th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3280 minor / 1.3301 moderate / 1.3320 moderate
Support: 1.3250 minor / 1.3232 moderate / 1.3187 moderate

Euro saw a follow through rally from Friday’s piercing pattern seeing the close above the daily EMA lines. Note we’ve pushed back up above the trigger of a daily double top pattern from two weeks back. Daily indicators has stochastic looking for a push back into overbought areas while macds have a bullish cross and is looking to push back above the zero line. In the lower time-frames we are mixed as 4H stochastic comes off overbought levels and macd’s push through zero even as candlesticks show a gravestone doji. Hourly charts are the opposite with stochastic coming of oversold levels even as macd is bearish though largely flat below the signal line. For the moment we prefer remaining sidelined though bias is for the buy side, consider going long off 1.3232 better yet 1.3187.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5732 moderate / 1.5750 moderate / 1.5781 minor
Support: 1.5685 moderate / 1.5650 minor / 1.5624 minor

Cable saw a strong start for the week pushing past swing highs at 1.5716 with daily indicators showing stochastic looking poised to push overbought and macd’s with a new bullish cross. Note economic releases of late suggests that the UK is seeing the fastest pace of recovery among the majors. Daily price charts show little sign over the rally for the past week losing momentum. Intraday we are seeing signs of potentially steeper pullback as candlesticks see a ‘dark cloud cover’ in 4H charts and stochastic come off overbought levels and macd’s top-off. Hourly charts as are mixed for their part as stochastic comes off oversold levels and macd’s head down. For the moment we prefer looking for basebuilding and a possible bounce off the daily pivot at 1.5685 or joining a bullish breakout at the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9240 moderate / 0.9258 moderate / 0.9317 moderate
Support: 0.9212 moderate / 0.9183 moderate / 0.9166 minor

Aussy triggered a an SHS pattern Friday and saw a follow through rally yesterday. Note his could be the start of a major pullback as the premise for weakness begin to fade. Among indicators we have daily stochastic pushing further into overbought areas as the macd’s managed to cross the zero line heading up and EMA lines form golden crosses. From the calendar we are waiting for potential catalyst for the buyside, a recover in NAB Business Confidence at 0130GMT and China data at 0530GMT. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of buys in the making as macds in both hourly and 4H charts look to push up, while 4H stochastic is overbought and hourly stochastic is heading for the 80 threshold. We are already long with the break of 0.9240 the immediate moderate resistance, projected highs call for a rally to 0.9307 while the key resistance is at 0.9317.

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September 9th, 2013 @ 1:57 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 10.10 minor / 100.30 moderate / 100.65 moderate
Support: 99.74 minor / 99.29 minor / 99.01 minor

USDJPY gapped higher at the open after seeing a sharp sell-off Friday which saw the pair testing the daily EMA lines with its lows. At the moment we have prices at the upper range of Fridays large bearish real body while price action is suggesting we cover the gap. Indicators has new golden crosses from the EMA lines while stochastic is off overbought areas and macd is rising. Intraday we have mixed signals as candlesticks show a bearish engulfing in the making for both hourly and 4h charts even as indicators show the 4H picture mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s bottoming out. Hourly charts has stochastic in overbought levels with macd’s looking to push back above zero. At the moment we prefer remaining sidelined given that price action is suggest we cover gap against the bullish indicators, a close below 99.74 however may be seen as argument to short for 99.10 Friday’s close.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 156.42 minor / 156.76 moderate / 156.96 minor
Support: 155.90 minor / 155.50 minor / 1555.02 moderate

GBPJPY opened the week with a bullish gap quickly seeing apush through Fridays highs in thin trading during the Wellington session. Among indicators we have a mixed view as stochastic comes-off overbought areas while macd is pushing up and as we see a wide gap between prices and the daily EMA lines. From the lower time frames we have a bearish engulfing among candlesticks with a big double top in the making in 4h charts. This as we see a mixed view with stochastic pointing up in this time frame and macd dropping. In the hourly level we are also seeing mixed signals with stochastic off overbought areas and macd’s pushing backup. Note we have an ongoing attempt to cover the bullish gap with the push back under R1 155.90 serving as an entry signal. Closing levels from Friday is at 154.83 while today’s projected low is merely 155.98.  Consider shorts at market.

EURJPY
Resistance: 131.38 minor / 131.82 moderate / 132.14 minor
Support: 131.02 moderate / 130.51 moderate / 130.27 minor

Friday saw a rejected from our wide range play resistance in EURJPY though the weeks open saw a bullish gap pushing past Friday highs for our range play ceiling. Daily indicators has mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s up though price action has already started the process of covering the Wellington gap. In the lower time frames we have a mixed set of signals starting off with the 4H stochastic heading up for the overbought threshold while macd is at zero and beneath the signal line. hourly charts are the opposite with stochastic already coming off overbought areas and macd’s pushing up just passing through the zero line. At the moment given our breakout we have a sell at market with an objective of 130.61 Friday’s close and today’s projected lows.

Gold
Resistance: 1393.67 moderate / 1399.80 minor / 1404.47 moderate
Support: 1384.35 moderate / 1378.85 minor / 1373.77 moderate

Gold saw a turn-around Friday after triggering a daily head-and-shoulder the day before as markets were disappointed with the weakness exhibited in the NFP results following a sharp downside adjustment for the July figures. Indicators show mixed signals with stochastic seeing a bullish divergence while macd is heading lower, the candlestick themselves has a piercing pattern from the daily level. From the lower times we ae however seeing a confluence of buys as hourly charts show anew bullish cross in stochastic while macd is also above the signal line. In the 4H scale we already have stochastic crawling overbought while macd waits to push above the zero line heading up. For now immediate risk is for further gains look for a push past 1393.67 as our trigger for a rally. Note we have geopolitical tensions in the middle-east providing a lift for alternative haven assets.

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September 6th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3128 minor / 1.3150 moderate / 1.3191 moderate
Support: 1.3103 moderate / 1.3078 moderate / 1.3048 moderate

Following a pull back to the 3-week double top trigger Wednesday, we have EURUSD resuming its bear market with Thursdays close just above the 50 fib retracement level of our rally from July. Daily indicators has macd’s pushing through the zero-line for both main and signal line with stochastic looking to ease back-under the 20 mark after taking a quick peek out of oversold areas. Note we have dead crosses forming among the daily EMA’s. Intraday we are seeing a mixed picture, 4H stochastic is oversold and macd’s are bearish beneath the zero mark. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish stochastic and a new bullish crossover in macd. Given the immediate support we appear to be looking for a technical bounce for the moment though a strong NFP read from the US will have us looking for a sell-off to the psychological 1.3000 area.

EURJPY
Resistance: 131.50 moderate / 131.97 moderate / 132.41 moderate
Support: 131.03 moderate / 130.73 minor / 130.51 moderate

EURJPY pulled back Thursday as we finally saw EURUSD breaking lower on strong US jobs numbers and a more cautious take by the ECB to recent strength in Eurozone economic numbers. Daily indicators has a mixed view with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd has a bullish cross. Note that our price charts are forming a double-top with-in a double top with and even wider weekly scales double top. From the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of bears, in 4H charts stochastic is looking to push into oversold areas while macd has anew bearish crossover. Hourly charts has the macd easing further beneath the zero line and stochastic dropping. Immediate risk is for further weakness as we try to form a top in the big picture. Look for a close below yesterdays lows at 131.03 as a possible entry point for new shorts.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.37 moderate / 100.62 minor / 100.86 moderate
Support: 99.96 moderate / 99.61 moderate / 99.24 moderate

With a broadly firmer dollar we have USDJPY seeing new highs for the week pushing on following the invalidation of Tuesday’s high wave spinning top as markets look for a strong us jobs figure. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas while macd is also pushing higher even as daily EMA lines see golden crosses. In the 4H picture we have stochastic overbought while macd is flat and the price chart shows indecision. Hourly charts for the moment has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk appears to be for a pullback as limited position squaring ahead of possibly volatile NFP release could be expected. A strong read later could bring forward the tapering off risk in US QE. We prefer looking for buys on dips to the 99.60(71) region S1 in pivots.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1377.80 moderate / 1384.35 moderate / 1391.07 moderate
Support: 1365.25 minor / 1356.41 moderate / 1347.09 moderate

Gold managed to trigger a daily head and shoulder pattern Thursday following a good read in he US claimant count and with strong non-manufacturing PMI’s. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is dropping though prices are inside the EMA lines. From the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd is heading down. Hourly charts however are looking for a technical bounce as stochastic is poised to push overbought. At this point immediate risk is for a correction though the overall view for gold suggests vulnerability as we face a a potentially strong US jobs number.

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September 3rd, 2013 @ 1:50 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9016(22) moderate / 0.9043 minor / 0.9070 moderate
Support: 0.8985 moderate / 0.8962 minor / 0.8935 minor

Aussy started the week on a strong footing gaping higher at the open of Wellington markets and pushing on to close the day just under the daily EMA lines with a double bottom clearly forming. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push into overbought areas while macd has just crossed up, we are looking to takeout the immediate resistance 0.9016(22) 21D EMA. From the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with 4H and hourly stochastic poised to push overbought while macd’s in the former time-frame have managed to push through the zero line heading up and in the hourly level is seeing a new bullish crossover. Note we have a busy calendar for Australia with Retail Sales at 0130GMT a possible catalyst for further gains at reads above 0.4%. We also have the RBA with a Rate Statement at 0430GMT.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 90.11 moderate / 90.55 minor / 91.07 minor
Support: 89.52 minor / 89.06 moderate / 88.70 minor

With a sharp rally from Asia to European trade we have AUDJPY pushing through bearish daily EMA lines Monday to close just under the 55D EMA and our trigger for a big picture double bottom. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought areas while macd’s are looking to push through the zero line even as prices are currently tangling with the 55D EMA, 89.84. Intraday we have a ‘Mat Hold’ in 4H charts while stochastic is crawling above 80 and macd continue to push higher. From the hourly picture we have stochastic just inside overbought territory while macd also has a new bullish cross. Immediate risk calls for our daily pattern to be triggered, a push through the 90.11 region may be seen as an entry, technically pattern target is at 93.84 though for today we are looking at a more modest high at 90.55 possibly 91.07 on an equity/commodity market rally.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.67 minor / 99.95 minor / 100.30 moderate
Support: 99.38 minor / 99.19 moderate / 98.72 moderate

USDJPY saw a push through the resistance line from July 7 highs with prices again surging just before the open of Japanese markets. It appears that we have risk appetite as fears of an immediate action against Syria appears to have died down and numbers yesterday suggested global manufacturing has seen a turn. Among indicators we have a bullish picture as stochastic push overbought and macd’s continue to head up while EMA lines are poised at developing golden crosses. In 4H charts we have a ‘Mat Hold’ bullish continuation pattern while stochastic crawls overbought and macd pushes up. Hourly charts has stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is looking for a bullish cross. For the moment intraday charts appear to be overextended following yesterdays breakout. We prefer looking for a buy on dips to the daily pivot. Alternatively look for a break higher at the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5568 minor / 1.5590 moderate / 1.5716 moderate
Support: 1.5523 moderate / 1.5500 psychological / 1.5483 moderate

Despite a sharp drop in holiday hit North American markets we have GBPUSD still with a bullish daily candle as we bounced off the EMA lines continuing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Daily indicators continue to look mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s pointing lower. Note we have prices oscillating around the daily pivot. In the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals as 4H charts show stochastic heading lower and macd heading up above the zero-line to suggest a bullish trend. Hourly charts for now has a confluence of bears. For the moment we have an indecisive intraday picture and prefer to remain sideline. Look for a close above 1.5480, the daily pivot to signal a bullish resolution of the current indecisive action.

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September 2nd, 2013 @ 1:51 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8957 minor / 0.8978 minor / 0.9012 moderate
Support: 0.8922 minor / 0.8893 minor / 0.8875 moderate

Despite a bearish close Friday, a Chinese Manufacturing PMI released over the weekend has Aussy gapping up at the open already pushing through its R1 from pivots for a possible mean reversion, the 21D EMA at 0.9012. Daily indicators has stochastic crossing up coming off oversold areas while macd is bottom out. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys among the macds with both hourly and 4H charts heading for the zero-line, while stochastic sees the former overbought and the latter coming out of oversold areas. Numbers coming-out of Australia so far also support the notion of a strong Aussy with the AIG manufacturing Index seeing a marked improvement to 46.4 from 42.0 previously. We are also waiting for Building Approvals and Company Operating Profit figures at 0130GMT with strong reads an excuse for a follow through rally to the 21DEMA, projected highs are at 0.9019 just above the said level. Look for a close above R1 at 0.8940 as your entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3216 moderate / 1.3259 moderate / 1.3278 moderate
Support: 1.3178 moderate / 1.3144 minor / 1.3103 moderate

Friday ended up as a hammer for Euro as we saw a late bounce ahead of along weekend in the US. Still we’ve triggered a daily level double top with the weeks open already gapping lower and indicators suggesting we look for further weakness as stochastic pushes oversold while we have macd pushing under the zero-line suggesting we look for follow through weakness. In the lower time-frames we have a bearish bias with 4H charts showing a confluence of bears stochastic just crossing lower while macd is flat right around the signal line. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push oversold and macd flat above its signal line though still below zero. Note target for the daily double top is at 1.2975. Look for a close under S1, 1.3178, to get the sell-side going or a rejection from 1.3216,the daily pivot.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.22 moderate / 130.51 moderate / 130.80 minor
Support: 129.78 moderate / 129.29 moderate / 128.90 minor

At the close we still had a bearish candle for EURJPY though with less hawkish talk out of the US and encouraging releases over the weekend we have started the week on a bullish gap to the middle of Fridays real body. Indicator wise we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd is poised to cross lower. From the 4H picture we are seeing a confluence of buys as macd begins to open up while stochastic is well on its ways higher and macd is opening up. Hourly charts for their part is already overbought according to stochastic and macd is poised to cross-up through the zeroline. Immediate risk calls for further gains though the absence of a bullish reversal pattern suggest caution. We prefer getting a bounce from the daily pivot, 129.78, alternative entry will be on a close above 130.22.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5517 minor / 1.5547 moderate / 1.5581 minor
Support: 1.5499 minor / 1.5463 moderate / 1.5429 moderate

After seeing a spinning top Friday we have Cable opening higher with the gap starting us at the 21D EMA for the week and price action suggesting we get a follow through. From indicators we are seeing a mixed view n intraday charts with stochastic heading up and macd’s still pointing down. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys with 4H stochastic poised to push overbought and macd just seeing a bullish crossover looking to make a move on the zeroline. hourly charts has stochastic crawling overbought and macd just pushing up through the zeroline. Note our daily fractal remains valid with our sell-off the past two weeks looking like a healthy pullback. With the pattern of higher highs and higher lows we view the previous wednesday as our latest higher low and the push through the 21D EMA as the start of our next surged to another higher high. A close above R1 would make a good excuse forgoing long.

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