Live Trading Room Quick Links:
Forex Academy Quick Links:
Misc. Quick Links:
Language:
English

Articles by Mark De La Paz

January 7th, 2014 @ 2:19 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3652 moderate / 1.3677 minor / 1.3717 moderate
Support: 1.3617 moderate / 1.3582 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

Monday saw a technical correction with prices pulling back to the previous double top breakout point from our daily charts. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also heading lower suggesting we look for a follow through still to Fridays pattern breakout. Note we have the daily EMA’s right on top of the market. In the lower time frames we are seeing a mixed view from 4H charts with stochastic just crossing up while macd is poised at a bear cross. Hourkly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd seeing a new bearish crossover. Given the big picture pattern and EMA lines our preference is to look for a bearish breakout. Consider selling a push below the daily pivot at 1.3617, our objective to ease down to the psychological 1.3500 area.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6433 minor / 1.6473 moderate / 1.6500 psychological
Support: 1.6349 moderate / 1.6320 moderate / 1.6258 moderate

Monday saw Cable with a high wave candle with tails pushing all the way down to the 34D EMA. Daily indicators show a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to push oversold and macd seeing a new bear cross, though again prices are just above the EMA lines now. We are currently triggering a double top in hourly charts. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s bottoming out below zero in the 4h picture. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence and a new cross lower while macd is above the signal line. given the on going double top breakout immediate risk is for a bear market. Though we prefer looking for buys coming off the 1.6349 region, S1 in pivots.

Gold
Resistance: 1246.33 minor / 1253.63 moderate / 1264.90 moderate
Support: 1235.30 moderate / 1226.80 minor / 1219.23 moderate

At the close we have gold with a high wave candle suggesting a loss of momentum from its daily double bottom breakout. Currently we have prices inside the daily EMA lines and above the daily pivot with stochastic in overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic bullish in 4H charts and macds seeing a new bear cross. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s dropping. There appears to be no sense of urgency in getting anywhere though we have an attractive resistance at 1253.63, where we have previous congestion highs and the 55D EMA. Consider buys coming off the daily pivot, 1235.30, for a test of the 55D EMA.

Click here to read the full article.

January 6th, 2014 @ 1:54 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3619(23) moderate / 1.3659 moderate / 1.3717 moderate
Support: 1.2582 minor / 1.3555 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

Euro saw a double top triggered in the daily charts Friday, pushing through EMA lines and closing under the 55D EMA to form the second top of a weekly scale double top pattern. This may be seen as a follow through to the rejection off 1.3832, 61.8 Fib retracement level of the Sell-off from 2011 highs. Indicators has daily stochastic pushing into oversold areas while macd is also dropping. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals for now following the weekend break with prices just under the daily central pivot. We have 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for theirpart has stochastic coming off oversold levels heading up and macd with a bullish crossover. We prefer looking for better pricing with shorts off 1.3623, pattern trigger and roughly 55D EMA. Alternative entry will be a break of the 1.3582 area, Fridays lows.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9059 minor / 0.9094 moderate / 0.9125 moderate
Support: 0.9027(33) moderate / 0.8988 moderate / 0.8967 minor

The swiss franc saw a strong close last week with a weekly scale bullish engulfing off its bounce from the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 2011. The move has seen us triggering a daily double bottom with prices now above the daily EMA’s with the close near its highs, well above the 55D EMA. With the break we now have stochastic pushing into overbought areas and macd poised to push up through the zero line as well. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the overbought threshold while macd is rising to underscore a bullish trend. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a bearish divergence and macd a bear cross as well. We do not see a sense of urgency, this being the case we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the 0.9027(33) area possibly 55D EMA at 0.9017 though a push past 0.9059 will also be seen as a bullish entry.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1241.54 minor / 1247.96 minor / 1253.63 moderate
Support: 1232.80 moderate / 1226.80 minor / 1219.23 moderate

Gold saw a strong from last week as we bounce following its worst year since 1981. At the open of the new year we triggered a double bottom coming off the 1180 lows and possibly forming a second bottom in the weekly charts given the long tails. From indicators we have stochastic pushing further into overbought areas as macd’s also head up for the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4h stochastic reentering overbought areas to signal a bullish trend as macd’s for their part are already above zero and heading up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic crossing up and macd’s heading lower. Look for a push through Friday highs as a bullish entry or a bounce off the daily pivot. Our objective will be a run toward the 55DEMA.

Click here to read the full article.

December 17th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8945 minor / 0.8969(70) moderate / 0.9007 moderate
Support: 0.8921 minor / 0.8890 moderate / 0.8845 moderate

Aussy saw a slow start for the week continuing Friday’s consolidation ahead of today’s release of the latest RBA minutes. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears still with stochastic remaining oversold and macd’s remaining under zero and seeing a new bear cross. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic heading lower and macd’s crossing up. Hourly charts for their part is oversold though macd is flat just under the zero line. At this point we retain a bearish bias though key will be what’s in the RBA’s minutes. With the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector, a budget deficit blowing out, and the commodity super-cycle turning pressure is mounting for the RBA to step in. We will be looking for argument for either direct intervention from the minutes or aggressive policy easing to contain developing internal risk.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3768 moderate / 1.3789 minor / 1.3810 moderate
Support: 1.3738 moderate / 1.3709 moderate / 1.3677 moderate

After breaking higher in European midday trade we saw the single currency pullback down through R1 to see a long wick for the daily candle though also retaining a good size real body. Still we have a lower high once more in the big picture reinforcing the notion of a top. From indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s climbing. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic heading lower with macd’s just under the zero line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bear cross while macd is dropping. We have already jumped short in EURUSD with the objecting of eventually getting to the daily EMA lines currently, 21D EMA is at 1.6359. Note all our indicators are bearish we have lower highs in the daily chart, and we could be forming the second peak of a weekly scale double top pattern.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6311 minor / 1.6347 moderate / 1.6372 minor
Support: 1.6262(74) moderate / 1.6231 moderate / 1.6195 minor

Cable saw a long wick at the close as attempts to push back inside the daily top trigger failed to gain traction. Among indicators we have daily stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is also heading lower though prices for now are just above the daily EMA lines. Note we have an active double top to work with. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is flat trying to cross through the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking to push overbought and macd’s poised for its own bullish crossover. At the moment we are not in a position to take immediate action though we prefer shorting from the 1.6347 area or on a push under 1.6274.

Gold
Resistance: 1251.76 moderate / 1256.89 minor / 1263.26 minor
Support: 1239.82 moderate / 1233.30 minor / 1228.31 moderate

At the close we have a high wave candle for gold prices testing the daily EMA lines in New York trade though failing to hold given the broadly firmer dollar and all the talk for a taper. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic seeing a new bullish cross and macd’s heading up to the zero line. Price charts themselves have formed a double bottom though the EMA lines are right on top of current levels. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with 4H charts showing a bearish divergence in stochastic and bullish macd while hourly’s have the opposite with a bullish stochastic and new bear cross in macd. Given the overall trend and the presence of the EMA’s we prefer a sell on rallies off yesterdays high at 1251.76. Alternative entry will be on a close below 1239.82.

Click here to read the full article.

December 16th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

USDJPY
Resistance: 103.37 moderate / 103.76 minor / 103.92 minor
Support: 102.97 moderate / 102.66 moderate / 102.37 minor

In the end we have a false breakout in USDJPY Friday with a long wick to form a shooting star in the daily charts suggesting pullback risk. Daily indicators has stochastic oscillating just under 80 while macd has already topped off crossing lower with mean reversion a possibility. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic in waiting to push oversold in 4H charts while macd has crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish stochastic with macd looking to ease under the zero line. At this point we may be forming a tripple top in the daily charts with the long daily wick indicative of bulls pulling back. Look for a push below 102.97 in European trade to get the bears going. Alternative entry will be coming off the 103.37 daily pivot, note we risk a false breakout above the said price.

EURJPY
Resistance: 142.02 moderate / 142.20 minor / 142.62 moderate
Support: 141.43 moderate / 141.22 moderate / 140.98 moderate

As with USDJPY we have long wick for the daily chart in EURJPY possibly defining the second high of a daily top. On an even bigger picture the weekly close is a shooting star following a break early in the week of the 140.98 61.8 Fibretracement level of the sell-off from 2008. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is topping out. From the lower timeframes we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic crossed up while macd sees a new bear cross. Hourly charts are the opposite with a new bullish crossover in macd and bearish stochastic. At this point we have very little conviction in the market despite a huge potential from a weekly shooting star. We prefer looking for a close under 140.98 on a daily scale before taking big trades. For intraday trades consider shorts of 142.02 at the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8963 moderate / 0.9000 psychological / 0.9031 minor
Support: 0.8909 minor / 0.8890 moderate / 0.8845 strong

Friday turned out to be a consolidation day for Aussy following two sharp drops in the daily charts with the close turning out to be a spinning top. Indicators however continue to be bearish with daily macd’s now crossing lower and stochastic easing down to oversold areas suggesting we look for a test of the key support at 0.8845. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised at a beasr cross while macd is flat below the signal line and under zero. Hourly charts for their part has macd looking to cross lower while stochastic is oversold. We have seen prices eased through the daily pivot at 0.894. Along with the bearish big picture we are now looking for prices to ease down to the key support level at 0.8845. Note we have Chinese flash manufacturing PMI at 0145GMT a possible catalyst for movement.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3762 moderate / 1.3790 minor / 1.3810 moderate
Support: 1.3710 minor / 1.3690 moderate / 1.3650 moderate

Euro turned out to be a high wave candle as we saw a bounce in New York trade for long shadows in the daily charts. Note we still had a bearish body and can view things as a confirmation for the daily fractal. On the weekly close we do have a shooting star suggesting a second peak has been formed for a double top pattern. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off overbought level while macd is heading up. Intraday we have a bearish macd with stochastic poised to see a bearish crossover from the 4H picture though we also have a piercing pattern. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic reentering overbought levels while macd is heading up. Immediate risk calls for a possible retest of the highs at 1.3810 though we would still look for a top and shorts around the area with stops above 1.3832.

Click here to read the full article.

December 13th, 2013 @ 2:19 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3764 moderate / 1.3790 minor / 1.3810 minor
Support: 1.3736 moderate / 1.3690 moderate / 1.3660 minor

Euro turned out to be a fractal in the daily charts following the failure to push for the previous swing highs at 1.3832. wednesday. We now have daily stochastic coming off oversold areas with the close a bearish engulfing for Thursday reinforcing the notion of a near term top. Note we risk forming a shooting star in weekly charts which would suggest a the second peak for a double top pattern. In the lower time frames we have stochastic staying oversold in 4H charts and macd’s heading lower. Hourly indicators has macd heading down and stochastic with a new bear cross. Given the daily fractal and sell signals we prefer looking for shorts from just under the daily pivot at 1.3764 or at a break of the lows for Thursday 1.3737, roughly the low for Tuesday and Wednesday as well. We may be seeing the start for a big picture double top with its trigger at November’s 1.3303 lows. At the very least it would be interesting to try heading for the said number.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8943 minor / 0.8973 minor / 0.9000(10) moderate
Support: 0.8913 minor / 0.8893 moderate / 0.8845 strong

Aussy saw a huge sell-off Thursday following statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens of an 0.8500 comfort zone for AUDUSD. A broadly firmer dollar also helped push the currency through the psychological support at 0.9000 with 0.8845 as the next key target. We now have daily stochastic in oversold areas while macd is crossing lower once more below the zero line. In 4H charts stochastic is crawling in oversold areas while macd is still dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic and a new bullish cross in macd though price action thus far remains mixed. Note this is Friday with very little data to watchout for in the calendar. Our more immediate risk is ofr a technical correction perhaps to 0.9000 psychological area with 38.2 Fib retracement for the sell-off at 0.9010. Still target in the near term is now a test of 0.8845 then on to 0.8500.

Click here to read the full article.

December 6th, 2013 @ 1:29 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 166.60 moderate / 167.09 minor / 167.69 moderate
Support: 165.88 minor / 165.32(44) moderate / 164.73 minor

Thursday saw a sell-off in GBPJPY following a daily fractal with indicators now seeing a new confluence of bears on a daily scale. We have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has a bear cross as well. Note after a 4-week rally we are potentially at risk of developing a ‘dark cloud cover’ from the weekly candles. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the oversold threshold while macd is heading lower just having crossed the zero line. From the hourly level we have stochastic looking poised to push into overbought areas while macd have a new bullish crossover. Immediate risk calls for GBPJPY pushing up through the daily pivot at 166.60 though our preference would be to look for shorts from the said level and 167.69

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3677 moderate / 1.3731 moderate / 1.3776 minor
Support: 1.3621 moderate / 1.3578 moderate / 1.3525 moderate

Thursday saw Euro finally getting out of its consolidation for the week following a more optimistic assessment of the Eurozones prospects by the ECB. Among indicators we are now seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s also rising. Note we have prices reasonable above the EMA’s and the previous congestion resistance. in the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic pushing further into overbought areas and macd’s heading up though price action suggests a loss of momentum. Hourly charts for their part have sell signals anew bear cross in macd and stochastic well on its way to oversold levels. With immediate risk calling for a pullback while the overall picture has been bullish our preferred course of action will be to look for a pullback to to the breakout point 1.3621, our consolidation resistance, and consider buys off the said price.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6345 moderate / 1.6370 minor / 1.6403 minor
Support: 1.6300 minor / 1.6260 moderate / 1.6235 moderate

After earlier attempts at bouncing failed in European morning trade we have Cable selling off to close well below the real bodies of the preceding candles suggesting a bearish break out and opening the possibility of a shooting star at the close off week. We appear to be forming a rounding top following the long wicks from earlier in the week while indicators now have stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s topping off. At the moment we have prices jut under the daily pivot while indicators show a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic looking to push oversold and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic bearish and macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. For now with little catalyst in Asia we prefer remaining sidelined though shorts off 1.6345, the daily pivot, should be considered at the open of European markets.

Click here to read the full article.

December 5th, 2013 @ 1:37 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9055 moderate / 0.9089 minor / 0.9112 moderate
Support: 0.9000 psychological / 0.8971 moderate / 0.8942 minor

Aussy saw a break of the congestion floor for the past five days following a weaker than expected read in GDP yesterday and speculations of a taper in the US resurfacing. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in stochastic looking poised to head back down below the oversold threshold while macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower and hourly charts having stochastic come off overbought areas as macds head up. From the calendar we are waiting for the release of the latest trade balance figures a read well below the -380 million consensus forecast would be a fresh excuse to look for weakness. A close below 0.9000 could be seens as a trigger for a follow through to our bearish breakout. Alternative entry will be coming off 0.9055.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6398 minor / 1.6414 moderate / 1.6438 moderate
Support: 1.6370 moderate / 1.6338 moderate / 1.6293 minor

Following a late surge Cable saw along tail for Wednesday closing well within the range from earlier in the weak where we saw long wicks in turn. We have a hanging man, for a daily candle. Among indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is just beginning to top top-off. Intraday we have a failed double top from the 4H picture as an earlier break failed to see sustained losses on the late rip with 4H indicators now showing a bullish stochastic though macd remains bearish. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic now pushing oversold while macd is also bullish. For now it appears we have lost bullish momentum though bear have yet to really come in droves. We risk getting mean reversion plays started considering the gap between prices and EMA lines with a break of 1.6370 a possible bearish entry. Note we will be  hearing from the BoE later.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 167.77 minor / 168.38 moderate / 168.70 minor
Support: 167.35 minor / 166.90 moderate / 166.46 moderate

GBPJPY has seen two days of high wave spinning tops with lower highs and lower lows this as equity markets have retreated from highs with growing talk of a US taper once more. From indicators we have stochastic finally coming off overbought levels while macd is topping out. In 4H charts we have macd’s easing off while stochastic is hovering just above the oversold areas thus far failing to push under 20. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Despite the mixed intraday charts the gap between prices and daily EMA’s along with the loss of bullish momentum suggests we ought to look for a sharper pull back. Persistent weakness in equity markets can be seen as a convenient intermarket correlation excuse for shorting. Immediate objective will be to get to S1 in pivots at 166.90 possibly a break to start mean reversion should equity markets drop.

Click here to read the full article.

December 4th, 2013 @ 1:39 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

Gold
Resistance: 1225.74 moderate / 1230.41 moderate / 1237.30 moderate
Support: 1219.85 minor / 1215.29 moderate / 1207.46 moderate

Gold saw a tight range Tuesday after the big sell-off at the start of the week. Daily indicators show stochastic pushing itno oversold levels while macd’s are just under their signal line heading lower beneath zero. Note we have been in a bear market in gold for some time with lower highs and lower from daily charts and consistently bearish daily EMA’s. In intraday charts we have indecision candles all over while indicators call for a technical correction with stochastic heading up in the 4H picture and macd’s bottoming out. Hourly charts for their party has a confluence of buys with stochastic heading for overbought levels and macd’s pointing up. With intraday charts showing buy signals we are hoping for a bounce to the previous congestion floor at 1237.30 and take the sell side from the said prices.

Cable
Resistance: 1.3690 moderate / 1.6436 moderate / 1.6473 moderate
Support: 1.6377 minor / 1.6345 moderate / 1.6308 strong

After attempts at pushing for the swing highs in European trade we have Cable with another long wick pushing all the way up though failing to see 1.6441 for a lower high. From indicators we are seeing stochastic come-off overbought levels while macd is pushing up in the daily picture. We appear to have opened the risk of mean reversion the trigger at 1.6345. At the momnet we have prices just under the daily pivot while 4H charts show a double top in the making with 1.6345 as the trigger. Indicators has macd’s heading lower while stochastic also see a new bear cross. In the hourly scale we have macd’s heading lower poised to push under the zero line while stochastic has just come off oversold areas in indecisive markets. Immediate risk calls for completing the double pattern a break of 1.6377 could be an excuse to get to the trigger though any sell-off would have to contend with a string support at 1.6308.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9146 moderate / 0.9167 moderate / 0.9204 moderate
Support: 0.9113 moderate / 0.9080 moderate / 0.9056 moderate

Aussy ended the day just under Tuesday highs as initial attempts at a sell-off failed when the RBA backed-off the idea of active currency intervention. At the close we still remained inside the weeks ranges though indicators now shows a confluence of buys with stochastic heading up and macd’s bottoming out. Note the daily EMA line appears to be chasing prices down as we consolidate. For now we have prices between the daily pivot 0.9113 and R1 0.9167. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic pushing overbought in the 4H picture while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with a new cross down in macd and stochastic heading lower. Given Australain GDP numbers at 0030GMT we prefer remaining sidelined though a poor read would be a nice excuse to retest the congestion floor at 0.9056. Consider a straddle with the release.

Click here to read the full article.

Our Global Forex Community

Follow us on Twitter! Join us on Facebook! Watch us on YouTube! Stumble Us!

Advertising

Next Free Forex Webinar

Free Market Commentaries

Advertising

Forex Links

Educational Partners

The Geek Knows
AgriMoney.com
Traders' Magazine

Finance Blogs Blogarama - The Blog Directory Fave this Blog on Technorati