Articles by Mark De La Paz

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0243 moderate / 1.0267 minor / 1.0289 moderate
Support: 1.0215 moderate / 1.0186 moderate / 1.0151 moderate

Wednesday saw the Aussy getting rejected from the daily EMA lines to see a ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ with prices now under the 38.2 Fib of the mean reversal rally monday. Among indicators we still have daily stochastic heading up and macd with its new bullish cross though releases earlier suggests sentiment is turning with the Trada Balance at a bigger than expected deficit of AUD $1.06 billion against a -510 million consensus forecast. In the lower time frames we has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is poised to cross lower in 4H charts. Hourly indicators has a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. Look for shorts under 1.0215 or coming off 1.0243 with hourly ‘shooting star’ or ‘grave stone doji’. Note we are still looking for a follow through sell-off to a weekly double top breakout.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8295 minor / 0.8320(23) strong / 0.8349 minor
Support: 0.8256 moderate / 0.8222 moderate / 0.8192 minor

After brief attempts to rally up past the daily EMA lines Kiwi eventually saw a big black candle getting rejected from the strong resistance at 0.8320(23), 21D EMA and 38.2 Fib retracement of the sell-off from February 14. Daily indicators has stochastic in the process of crossing lower inline with the bearish macd and new dead crosses among the EMA lines. In 4H charts candlesticks suggests building bearish momentum while stochastic has pushed oversold and macd is crossing lower. Hourly indicators has stochastic oscillating around 20 and macd heading lower. Going forward focus should be on further weakness for Kiwi with shorts on a close under 0.5256 in hourly charts or coming off the 38.2 Fib area at 0.8320(23), the 38.2 Fib and 21D EMA.

USDJPY
Resistance: 94.11 minor / 94.45 strong / 94.77 minor
Support: 93.67 moderate / 93.24 minor / 92.84 moderate

Wednesday saw USDJPY rallying on broader dollar gains following a strong ADP number. Note we have triggered a daily flag pattern and a bounce off the 21D EMA with the key resistance at 94.45 now in sight. Indicators have daily stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is bottoming out, poised to cross higher. In the lower timeframes we have buys isgnals from both hourly and 4H charts. In the latter we have stochastic overbought while macd has opened. Hourly charts for their part has macd heading higher and stochastic just crossing up. For now we prefer a buy on dips to 93.67 or following a push past 94.45. Projected high calls for the psychological 95.00. On the fundamental side we have BoJ Governor Shirakawa presiding over his last monetary policy meeting with Kuroda taking the helm on the 19th.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5000 psychological / 1.5045 minor / 1.5079 moderate
Support: 1.4966 minor / 1.4926 moderate / 1.4859 minor

At the close we have Cable under the psychological 1.5000 area following strong jobs numbers out of the US private sector. This effectively gives us a lower low in the range play for the last two weeks. With yesterdays drop daily stochastic has crossed lower while macd remains flat. In the lower time frames we have an oversold 4H stochastic while macd has just crossed lower. Hourly charts for the moment has bullish in stochastic while macd is bottoming out. Note that our sell-off was basically a dollar issue and not Cable weakness, as such we are looking for a push back above the 1.5000 region to signal that the previous range play remains valid. Consider buys on an hourly close above 1.5000 with stops under 1.4966.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3074 moderate / 1.3101 minor / 1.3150 moderate
Support: 1.3042 moderate / 1.3000 psychological / 1.2966 moderate

Tuesday saw an indecision candle for EURUSD with a bullish spinning top following the hammer monday. Daily indicators has a bullish divergence out of stochastic while the macd is bottoming out. Note we appear to have Euro stabilizing around the psychological 1.3000 area though the gap between prices and the EMA lines suggests mean reversion risk persists. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic just crossing up inline with the bullish macd. Hourly stochastic for its part is poised to reenter overbought levels while macd is beginning top open up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a push past 1.3074 will signal furthering the mean reversion play for the 1.3140 area projected high.

EURNZD
Resistance: 1.5694(06) moderate / 1.5733 minor / 1.5776 moderate
Support: 1.5659 minor / 1.5594 minor / 1.5509 moderate

Tuesday saw EURNZD pushing under the 200D SMA following through its rejection from the daily EMA lines at the start of the week. Among indicators we have stochastic oversold while the macd line is opening lower. In the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing oversold in 4H charts with inverted hammers in candlesticks while macd is also dropping. Hourly charts also show a confluence of bears. At this point we have little catalyst for price action suggesting a slow drop though markets are technically bearish our immediate objective the previous swing lows at 1.5594 then on to the 1.5500(09) psychological area.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0278(86) moderate / 1.0312 moderate / 1.0341 strong
Support: 1.0240 moderate / 1.0215 minor / 1.0185 moderate

Aussy is currently around the 21D EMA with aquick follow through thrust higher to yesterdays big white candle following as expected news, with the quarterly GDP at 0.6%. From indicators daily stochastic is looking to push overbought while macd has just crossed up. Intraday we have 4H stochastic trying to reenter overbought levels while macd is up. Hourly charts similarly has stochastic posied to move above 80 with macd opening up as well. With prices just under the 21D EMA and indicators near overbought immediate risk calls for a bullish breakout though we suggest buys only after we stabilize above 1.0278(86). Take too long to see a bullish push and we will look for shorts around the European open.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3042 moderate / 1.3084 minor / 1.3120 minor
Support: 1.3000 psychological / 1.2966 moderate / 1.2938 minor

Euro saw limited ranges monday though prices closed near their hangs with a clear bounce off the 1.3000 psychological support level. Daily indicators has macd heading lower while stochastic is forming a bullish divergence. Note we have a big gap between prices and the EMA lines opening the possibility of mean reversion. In the lower time frames we have stochastic overbought and macd beginning to open up while prices are just under 1.3042 with the charts showing a double bottom break out in progress. Hourly charts has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is rising. For now we have a bullish bias though we prefer going long only on a close above 1.3042 or coming off the 1.3000 area with stops under 1.2966. At this point we should note that nay Euro upside will be limited given the Italian election results which has brought back the debt issue for the Eurozone.

USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0265 minor / 1.0307 moderate / 1.0341 minor
Support: 1.0241 minor / 1.0217 moderate / 1.0199 minor

Following Friday’s ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ we have an ‘inverted hammer’ in the daily charts for USDCAD with the long wick suggesting we look for a pullback to the daily EMA lines. Today’s calendar may be clear for the Loonie though we have an interest rate decision Wednesday. Among indicators we have a bearish divergence from stochastic while macd is looking poised to cross lower at the daily level. Intraday we have a descending or ‘double top’ in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd dropping. Hourly indicators has stochastic under 20 while macd is heading down. For now we have just pushed under the 1.0265 trigger though the previous hourly candle is a hammer. Given the contradicting developments in price action we prefer seeing USDCAD stay under 1.0265 for a while before committing to the sell side of the market.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0223 minor / 1.0240 minor / 1.0273 moderate
Support: 1.0184 moderate / 1.0149 strong / 1.0115 minor

Monday saw Aussy reversing earlier losses from Asia to end up with a long tail in the daily charts, opening the possibility of mean reversion. Among indicators daily macd has bottomed out while stochastic is pushing higher. From the calendar we have just seen an upside surprise out of the Retail Sales figures at 0.9% up from -0.2% and more than twice the consensus forecast of 0.4%. Going forward we are waiting for a possibly optimistic statement from the RBA in its latest Rate Statement at 0330GMT. In intraday charts we have a bullish view with 4H macd’s just crossing up while stochastic has also just pushed to overbought levels. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oscillating around 80 inline with the rising macd to suggest a bullish trend. For now we are looking for a rally to the 21D EMA at 1.0273. Consider a buy on dips to 1.0184 or on apush past the 61.8 Fib retracement at 1.0223.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0183 minor / 1.0214 minor / 1.0240 moderate
Support: 1.0149 strong / 1.0115 minor / 1.0098 moderate

Aussy saw its weakest close yet from last Friday with the close clearly reinforcing the notion of a weekly double top breakout. Earlier we saw poor numbers out of Australia with quarterly operating profits for businesses continuing to contract while Building Approvals also fell month-on-month against expectations of a recovery. From indicators we have daily stochastic pushing further into oversold areas while macd is dropping. Intraday we have a confluence of bears in both 4H and hourly levels as stochastic pushes oversold in both while macd for the latter has just opened down. Notew we ahve an ongoing sell-off in response to the earlier releases our key objective 1.0149. A close under 1.0149 in the daily charts opens the way to parity possible under it. For now look for shorts from just under 1.0183.

USDJPY
Resistance: 93.87 moderate / 94.04 minor / 94.45 strong
Support: 93.50 minor / 93.16 minor / 92.75 moderate

Yen pairs saw a rally a day after the nomination of ADB chief Kuroda as the new BoJ Governor to see USDJPY back above the daily EMA lines with the swing highs at 94.45 within sight. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought suggesting a need for a quick bullish break to remain valid, while macd is flat. For the moment we have an ongoing confirmation hearing for Kuroda before the Diet. In the lower timeframes we have a flag in 4H charts while stochastic is overbought and macd rising. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic trying to cross up while macd is flat above the signal. For now we prefer to wait for the confirmation hearing to finish though comments so far suggests we look for a surge to 94.45 the previous swings highs possibly up to the psychological 95.00.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3042 moderate / 1.3084 minor / 1.3120 moderate
Support: 1.3000 strong / 1.2954(66) moderate / 1.2907 moderate

Friday saw Euro trying to generate follow through weakness to its bear trend only to see an abortive breakout out with a long tail in the daily candle. Indicators however continue to show a bearish bias with stochastic oscillating around the 20 mark while macd is dropping. Note we have a huge gap between prices and EMA lines opening the possibility of mean reversion. In 4H charts we have indecision from the candlesticks as macd remains flat and stochastic pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys in the making with macd up and stochastic in the process of crossing higher. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though given the support and the loss of bearish momentum we are looking for a possible buy on dips to 1.3000 or on a push past 1.3042.

USDJPY
Resistance: 92.69 moderate / 93.02 minor / 93.50 minor
Support: 92.41 minor / 92.01 moderate / 91.63 minor

Thursday turned out to be a slow day for USDJPY with the confirmation of Kuroda as the designate BoJ governor failing to inspire a buying spree among the yen pairs. For now we havr prices just under the 21D EMA, 92.69 while indicators has daily stochastic crossing up and macd pointing lower. Note daily candles from Tuesday and Wednesday have very long tails for hammers. In 4H charts we have macd pointing up and stochastic just crossing higher heading back to overbought levels. Hourly charts has a flat macd and bearish stochastic. Overall we retain a bullish bias for USDJPY, an hourly close above the 21D EMA should be seen as a possible bullish entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3093 minor / 1.3120 moderate / 1.3160 minor
Support: 1.3053 minor / 1.3018 strong / 1.3000 psychological

Ignoring a morning star doji in the daily charts, Thursday saw the Euro easing off in New York trade to close around Wednesdays open, 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from July 2012. Indicators has stochastic oscillating around 20 to suggest a bear market while macd is bearish. From the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic oversold and macd at risj of crossing lower while price charts have a higher low and candlesticks show loss of bearish momentum. We could be forming a double bottom. In hourly charts stochastic is pushing higher coming off oversold levels while macd is flat below the signal. Consider long from 1.3018 with stops below the psychological 1.3000 support. Aggressive buys may also be taken off 1.3053 or a push a close above 1.3073 with tight stop at 1.3045, ideally under 1.3000.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 95.00 moderate / 95.55 minor / 95.98 minor
Support: 94.56 minor / 94.09 minor / 93.52 minor

AUDJPY has seen two consecutive hammers the past two days suggesting that the sell-side is losing steam. Among indicators we have daaily stochastic beginning to cross up though macd remains bearish. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with macd crossing up and stochastic overbought. Hourly charts has stochastic oscillating around 80 while macd is pushing up. For now we have prices just around the 50 fib area of the sell-off from monday. Note we are looking for a further surge up following the Japanese PM’s announcement of Kuroda as his choice for BoJ governor at 0200GMT. Consider buys above 95.00 on confirmation of a Kuroda appointment.

EURJPY
Resistance: 122.25(28) moderate / 122.71(81) moderate / 123.64 minor
Support: 121.22 minor / 120.40 minor / 119.71 minor

With long tails sticking out beneath the 55D EMA for the daily candles this week we have EURJPY surging yesterday following the hammer from Tuesday. Note we could consider this a bounce off the 23.6 Fib area 119.79 for the rally from July last year. Daily stochastic has just crossed up while macd is pointing lower. From the lower time frames we have macd’s crossing up and stochastic pushing overbought in 4H charts. hourly indicators have reentered overbought areas while macd is rising. Price action has an hourly flag pattern triggered at the open of Asian markets. For now we are just waiting to confirm Kuroda’s nomination for BoJ governor a catalyst for weaker Yen given his views on inflation targeting and monetary easing. Look for a buy on dips to 121.22 with averages ranges suggesting a 124.24 target though we expect to be well resisted at 122.28(28) and 122.71(81).

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3160 minor / 1.3203 minor / 1.3265 strong
Support: 1.3120 moderate / 1.3071 minor / 1.3038 minor

The high wave doji from Tuesday in Euro lead to a strong rally yesterday for a morning start in our daily candlesticks. Note we have this bounce off the 38.2 Fib retracement of the rally from July of 2012. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off sharply from oversold territory while macd is bottoming out, with the daily EMAs as our target for the mean reversion though trends have shifted with dead crosses forming. In the lower time frames we have stochastic overbought and macd beginning to push higher in 4H chrts though hourly indicators are mixed as stochastic comes off overbought area while macd remain bullish. At this point the shock of Berlusconi should be passing though the European debt issue is back to fore suggesting no new highs, no new push to the 1.4000 level. We are looking for a buy on dips to 1.3120 or on a push past 1.3160.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3071 minor / 1.3120 moderate / 1.3168 minor
Support: 1.3018 strong / 1.3000 psychological / 1.2964 minor

After the Berlusconi driven sell-off Monday we have EURUSD turning out a high wave doji yesterday with finding support at the approach of the psychological 1.3000 area. Daily indicators have stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals the 4H stochastic crossing down while macd bottoms up and in hourly charts stochastic is coming out of overbought areas while macd is opening higher. With mixed signals in intraday charts we are not inclined to take any immediate action though the loss of bearish momentum as suggested by the daily doji has us looking for a possible bounce, perhaps just off the psychological support area at 1.3000.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5152 moderate / 1.5193 moderate / 1.5217 minor
Support: 1.5113 minor / 1.5069 moderate / 1.5000 psychological

Attempts to get a follow through to monday’s gap covering failed Tuesday with Cable selling off in midday European trade. This follows the broader risk averse theme with markets getting hit by the Italian election and approaching sequestration in the US. Among indicators we have daily macd heading lower though stochastic has taken a peek from oversold areas while the gap between prices and the EMA lines have widened. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic oversold and macd above the signal line for 4H charts. In the hourly level we have a bearish macd while stochastic is poised to cross lower. Given the fundamental issues hounding the UK we prefer looking for shorts until 1.5000. Consider a sell on rallies to 1.5193 or on an hourly push below 1.5113.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5261 strong / 1.5321 minor / 1.5400 moderate
Support: 1.5220 moderate / 1.5168 moderate / 1.5132 minor
Cable has seen a huge sell-off over the past two weeks since getting rejected from the 21D EMA. For Thursday daily candles gave us a hammer closing just around the supposed strong support at 1.5261, lows for the range play in the last two year. Prices for their part has a big gap with the daily EMA lines suggesting mean reversion risk. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is still pointing down. From the lower time frames we have stochastic overbought in the 4H picture while macd has just crossed up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd above the signal. Given the daily hammer and the close for the week we prefer looking for a technical correction, consider buys on an intraday close above 1.5261.

EURJPY
Resistance: 123.44 strong / 124.15 moderate / 124.65 minor
Support: 122.48 moderate / 121.57 minor / 120.77 strong

Thursday saw EURJPY closing below the 21D EMA and triggering a descending triangle breakout among the daily charts. Pattern target calls for 118.85, a moderate support. Intraday we have 4H indicators mixed as stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd is dropping. Hourly indicators are also mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up. Given the mixed signals and a press conference by the Economic and Finance Ministers we prefer remaining sidelined. Still with a strong resistance at 123.44 our pattern breakout point shorts may be consider under the said price on bearish candlestick patterns.

USDJPY
Resistance: 93.25 moderate / 93.52 minor / 93.87 minor
Support: 92.78 minor / 92.22 moderate / 91.79 minor

With USDJPY breaking lower yesterday we have a clear should-head-shoulder pattern in the daily charts while indicators also have a bearish bias with daily stochastic heading down and macd dropping. From the big picture we have prices just under the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the sell-off from June 2007, 94.11. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with 4H macd heading lower and stochastic coming off oversold areas while hourly charts are the opposite with stochastic bearish and macd just crossing up. At this point we prefer remaining sidelined ahead of the Japanese Cabinet meeting where the Finance Minister and Economic Minister, Taro Aso and Akira Amari, will be holding a press conference afterwards. Still a close under 92.22 the SHS neckline could trigger a bigger pullback.