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Articles by Mark De La Paz

December 16th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 103.37 moderate / 103.76 minor / 103.92 minor
Support: 102.97 moderate / 102.66 moderate / 102.37 minor

In the end we have a false breakout in USDJPY Friday with a long wick to form a shooting star in the daily charts suggesting pullback risk. Daily indicators has stochastic oscillating just under 80 while macd has already topped off crossing lower with mean reversion a possibility. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic in waiting to push oversold in 4H charts while macd has crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish stochastic with macd looking to ease under the zero line. At this point we may be forming a tripple top in the daily charts with the long daily wick indicative of bulls pulling back. Look for a push below 102.97 in European trade to get the bears going. Alternative entry will be coming off the 103.37 daily pivot, note we risk a false breakout above the said price.

EURJPY
Resistance: 142.02 moderate / 142.20 minor / 142.62 moderate
Support: 141.43 moderate / 141.22 moderate / 140.98 moderate

As with USDJPY we have long wick for the daily chart in EURJPY possibly defining the second high of a daily top. On an even bigger picture the weekly close is a shooting star following a break early in the week of the 140.98 61.8 Fibretracement level of the sell-off from 2008. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is topping out. From the lower timeframes we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic crossed up while macd sees a new bear cross. Hourly charts are the opposite with a new bullish crossover in macd and bearish stochastic. At this point we have very little conviction in the market despite a huge potential from a weekly shooting star. We prefer looking for a close under 140.98 on a daily scale before taking big trades. For intraday trades consider shorts of 142.02 at the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8963 moderate / 0.9000 psychological / 0.9031 minor
Support: 0.8909 minor / 0.8890 moderate / 0.8845 strong

Friday turned out to be a consolidation day for Aussy following two sharp drops in the daily charts with the close turning out to be a spinning top. Indicators however continue to be bearish with daily macd’s now crossing lower and stochastic easing down to oversold areas suggesting we look for a test of the key support at 0.8845. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised at a beasr cross while macd is flat below the signal line and under zero. Hourly charts for their part has macd looking to cross lower while stochastic is oversold. We have seen prices eased through the daily pivot at 0.894. Along with the bearish big picture we are now looking for prices to ease down to the key support level at 0.8845. Note we have Chinese flash manufacturing PMI at 0145GMT a possible catalyst for movement.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3762 moderate / 1.3790 minor / 1.3810 moderate
Support: 1.3710 minor / 1.3690 moderate / 1.3650 moderate

Euro turned out to be a high wave candle as we saw a bounce in New York trade for long shadows in the daily charts. Note we still had a bearish body and can view things as a confirmation for the daily fractal. On the weekly close we do have a shooting star suggesting a second peak has been formed for a double top pattern. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off overbought level while macd is heading up. Intraday we have a bearish macd with stochastic poised to see a bearish crossover from the 4H picture though we also have a piercing pattern. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic reentering overbought levels while macd is heading up. Immediate risk calls for a possible retest of the highs at 1.3810 though we would still look for a top and shorts around the area with stops above 1.3832.

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December 13th, 2013 @ 2:19 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3764 moderate / 1.3790 minor / 1.3810 minor
Support: 1.3736 moderate / 1.3690 moderate / 1.3660 minor

Euro turned out to be a fractal in the daily charts following the failure to push for the previous swing highs at 1.3832. wednesday. We now have daily stochastic coming off oversold areas with the close a bearish engulfing for Thursday reinforcing the notion of a near term top. Note we risk forming a shooting star in weekly charts which would suggest a the second peak for a double top pattern. In the lower time frames we have stochastic staying oversold in 4H charts and macd’s heading lower. Hourly indicators has macd heading down and stochastic with a new bear cross. Given the daily fractal and sell signals we prefer looking for shorts from just under the daily pivot at 1.3764 or at a break of the lows for Thursday 1.3737, roughly the low for Tuesday and Wednesday as well. We may be seeing the start for a big picture double top with its trigger at November’s 1.3303 lows. At the very least it would be interesting to try heading for the said number.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8943 minor / 0.8973 minor / 0.9000(10) moderate
Support: 0.8913 minor / 0.8893 moderate / 0.8845 strong

Aussy saw a huge sell-off Thursday following statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens of an 0.8500 comfort zone for AUDUSD. A broadly firmer dollar also helped push the currency through the psychological support at 0.9000 with 0.8845 as the next key target. We now have daily stochastic in oversold areas while macd is crossing lower once more below the zero line. In 4H charts stochastic is crawling in oversold areas while macd is still dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic and a new bullish cross in macd though price action thus far remains mixed. Note this is Friday with very little data to watchout for in the calendar. Our more immediate risk is ofr a technical correction perhaps to 0.9000 psychological area with 38.2 Fib retracement for the sell-off at 0.9010. Still target in the near term is now a test of 0.8845 then on to 0.8500.

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December 6th, 2013 @ 1:29 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPJPY
Resistance: 166.60 moderate / 167.09 minor / 167.69 moderate
Support: 165.88 minor / 165.32(44) moderate / 164.73 minor

Thursday saw a sell-off in GBPJPY following a daily fractal with indicators now seeing a new confluence of bears on a daily scale. We have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has a bear cross as well. Note after a 4-week rally we are potentially at risk of developing a ‘dark cloud cover’ from the weekly candles. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the oversold threshold while macd is heading lower just having crossed the zero line. From the hourly level we have stochastic looking poised to push into overbought areas while macd have a new bullish crossover. Immediate risk calls for GBPJPY pushing up through the daily pivot at 166.60 though our preference would be to look for shorts from the said level and 167.69

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3677 moderate / 1.3731 moderate / 1.3776 minor
Support: 1.3621 moderate / 1.3578 moderate / 1.3525 moderate

Thursday saw Euro finally getting out of its consolidation for the week following a more optimistic assessment of the Eurozones prospects by the ECB. Among indicators we are now seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s also rising. Note we have prices reasonable above the EMA’s and the previous congestion resistance. in the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic pushing further into overbought areas and macd’s heading up though price action suggests a loss of momentum. Hourly charts for their part have sell signals anew bear cross in macd and stochastic well on its way to oversold levels. With immediate risk calling for a pullback while the overall picture has been bullish our preferred course of action will be to look for a pullback to to the breakout point 1.3621, our consolidation resistance, and consider buys off the said price.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6345 moderate / 1.6370 minor / 1.6403 minor
Support: 1.6300 minor / 1.6260 moderate / 1.6235 moderate

After earlier attempts at bouncing failed in European morning trade we have Cable selling off to close well below the real bodies of the preceding candles suggesting a bearish break out and opening the possibility of a shooting star at the close off week. We appear to be forming a rounding top following the long wicks from earlier in the week while indicators now have stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s topping off. At the moment we have prices jut under the daily pivot while indicators show a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic looking to push oversold and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic bearish and macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. For now with little catalyst in Asia we prefer remaining sidelined though shorts off 1.6345, the daily pivot, should be considered at the open of European markets.

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December 5th, 2013 @ 1:37 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9055 moderate / 0.9089 minor / 0.9112 moderate
Support: 0.9000 psychological / 0.8971 moderate / 0.8942 minor

Aussy saw a break of the congestion floor for the past five days following a weaker than expected read in GDP yesterday and speculations of a taper in the US resurfacing. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in stochastic looking poised to head back down below the oversold threshold while macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower and hourly charts having stochastic come off overbought areas as macds head up. From the calendar we are waiting for the release of the latest trade balance figures a read well below the -380 million consensus forecast would be a fresh excuse to look for weakness. A close below 0.9000 could be seens as a trigger for a follow through to our bearish breakout. Alternative entry will be coming off 0.9055.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6398 minor / 1.6414 moderate / 1.6438 moderate
Support: 1.6370 moderate / 1.6338 moderate / 1.6293 minor

Following a late surge Cable saw along tail for Wednesday closing well within the range from earlier in the weak where we saw long wicks in turn. We have a hanging man, for a daily candle. Among indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is just beginning to top top-off. Intraday we have a failed double top from the 4H picture as an earlier break failed to see sustained losses on the late rip with 4H indicators now showing a bullish stochastic though macd remains bearish. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic now pushing oversold while macd is also bullish. For now it appears we have lost bullish momentum though bear have yet to really come in droves. We risk getting mean reversion plays started considering the gap between prices and EMA lines with a break of 1.6370 a possible bearish entry. Note we will be  hearing from the BoE later.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 167.77 minor / 168.38 moderate / 168.70 minor
Support: 167.35 minor / 166.90 moderate / 166.46 moderate

GBPJPY has seen two days of high wave spinning tops with lower highs and lower lows this as equity markets have retreated from highs with growing talk of a US taper once more. From indicators we have stochastic finally coming off overbought levels while macd is topping out. In 4H charts we have macd’s easing off while stochastic is hovering just above the oversold areas thus far failing to push under 20. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Despite the mixed intraday charts the gap between prices and daily EMA’s along with the loss of bullish momentum suggests we ought to look for a sharper pull back. Persistent weakness in equity markets can be seen as a convenient intermarket correlation excuse for shorting. Immediate objective will be to get to S1 in pivots at 166.90 possibly a break to start mean reversion should equity markets drop.

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December 4th, 2013 @ 1:39 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1225.74 moderate / 1230.41 moderate / 1237.30 moderate
Support: 1219.85 minor / 1215.29 moderate / 1207.46 moderate

Gold saw a tight range Tuesday after the big sell-off at the start of the week. Daily indicators show stochastic pushing itno oversold levels while macd’s are just under their signal line heading lower beneath zero. Note we have been in a bear market in gold for some time with lower highs and lower from daily charts and consistently bearish daily EMA’s. In intraday charts we have indecision candles all over while indicators call for a technical correction with stochastic heading up in the 4H picture and macd’s bottoming out. Hourly charts for their party has a confluence of buys with stochastic heading for overbought levels and macd’s pointing up. With intraday charts showing buy signals we are hoping for a bounce to the previous congestion floor at 1237.30 and take the sell side from the said prices.

Cable
Resistance: 1.3690 moderate / 1.6436 moderate / 1.6473 moderate
Support: 1.6377 minor / 1.6345 moderate / 1.6308 strong

After attempts at pushing for the swing highs in European trade we have Cable with another long wick pushing all the way up though failing to see 1.6441 for a lower high. From indicators we are seeing stochastic come-off overbought levels while macd is pushing up in the daily picture. We appear to have opened the risk of mean reversion the trigger at 1.6345. At the momnet we have prices just under the daily pivot while 4H charts show a double top in the making with 1.6345 as the trigger. Indicators has macd’s heading lower while stochastic also see a new bear cross. In the hourly scale we have macd’s heading lower poised to push under the zero line while stochastic has just come off oversold areas in indecisive markets. Immediate risk calls for completing the double pattern a break of 1.6377 could be an excuse to get to the trigger though any sell-off would have to contend with a string support at 1.6308.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9146 moderate / 0.9167 moderate / 0.9204 moderate
Support: 0.9113 moderate / 0.9080 moderate / 0.9056 moderate

Aussy ended the day just under Tuesday highs as initial attempts at a sell-off failed when the RBA backed-off the idea of active currency intervention. At the close we still remained inside the weeks ranges though indicators now shows a confluence of buys with stochastic heading up and macd’s bottoming out. Note the daily EMA line appears to be chasing prices down as we consolidate. For now we have prices between the daily pivot 0.9113 and R1 0.9167. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic pushing overbought in the 4H picture while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with a new cross down in macd and stochastic heading lower. Given Australain GDP numbers at 0030GMT we prefer remaining sidelined though a poor read would be a nice excuse to retest the congestion floor at 0.9056. Consider a straddle with the release.

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December 2nd, 2013 @ 1:03 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9145 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9204 moderate
Support: 0.9100 moderate / 0.9070 moderate / 0.9016 minor

Aussy saw a consolidation during the US holidays with Friday turning out to be a high wave candle around the 78.6 Fib of the rally from August. This puts a pause to our sell-off following the daily head and shoulder break out from November 21st. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s trying bottom out. Note we have big gap between prices and daily EMA lines opening the possibility of mean reversion. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in the making with 4H macd heading up and stochastic poised to rejoin it. Hourly charts also have a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to push overbought and macd juts crossing higher. Immediate risk calls for a pullback with the break of 0.9145 a trigger for buys though we do not plan on overstaying our welcome considering the RBA’s threats of intervention to weaken the currency.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 0.9145 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9204 moderate
Support: 0.9100 moderate / 0.9070 moderate / 0.9016 minor

Aussy saw a consolidation during the US holidays with Friday turning out to be a high wave candle around the 78.6 Fib of the rally from August. This puts a pause to our sell-off following the daily head and shoulder break out from November 21st. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s trying bottom out. Note we have big gap between prices and daily EMA lines opening the possibility of mean reversion. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in the making with 4H macd heading up and stochastic poised to rejoin it. Hourly charts also have a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to push overbought and macd juts crossing higher. Immediate risk calls for a pullback with the break of 0.9145 a trigger for buys though we do not plan on overstaying our welcome considering the RBA’s threats of intervention to weaken the currency.

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November 29th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6357 moderate / 1.3679 moderate / 1.6406 minor
Support: 1.6325 moderate / 1.6304 moderate / 1.6260 moderate

Taking advantage of low liquidity we have Cable managing to sustain its rally from Wednesday getting a follow through to its bullish breakout,the push past 1.6260 with charts now looking set to move on the two year highs at 1.3679. Indicators show stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is heading up with EMA’s also pushing higher with a modest gap with prices above it. In the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the 80 threshold while macd is flat above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s also dropping. Note we have formed a double top in the hourly picture. Given the latter immediate risk is for a pullback though we would like to see base building around the 1.6304 level or at the breakout point at 1.6260 and consider buys off the said prices for a run to the two year highs at 1.6279.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9065 minor / 0.9100 moderate / 0.9136 moderate
Support: 0.9014 moderate / 0.8960 moderate / 0.8916 moderate

After an early bounce in Thursdays trade we have Aussy easing off as the US stayed closed in North American markets for a long wick in the daily charts. We are currently seeing new lows on a poor start for the last trading day of the month with earlier numbers a convenient excuse for resuming the bear market as with Private Sector Credit falling short of expectations to read 0.3%. Among indicators we have stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is down with market thus far ignorning the widening gap between prices and EMA lines. From the $H picture we have a confluence of bears in the making as stochastic is poised to push oversold while macd is also at risk of a bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is dropping. We already have half the average daily range for Aussy. Consider shorts at market with prices under 0.9065 our objective the moderate support at 0.9014. Note this is all part of a big picture head and shoulder breakout.

USDJPY
Resistance: 102.51 moderate / 102.63 minor / 102.90 minor
Support: 102.20 moderate / 101.92 moderate / 101.65 minor

Given the ‘Thanksgiving Holidays’ in the US we have USDJPY seeing a tight range play though at the close we still managed to push for new highs as we look set to make a run for the 5-year highs at 103.69. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought areas with a new bullish crossover this as macd’s are also rising. note we have a huge gap between prices and daily EMA lines though there is little callfor mean reversion in the price action. From the lower timeframes we have a confluence of buys as stochastic is crawling in overbought areas while macd is flat above the signal line. hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s pointing down. We remain bullish overall though entry is preferably a buy on dips to 101.92 or on a close above the 102.51 area in European open trade.

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November 27th, 2013 @ 1:48 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9139 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9190(04) moderate
Support: 0.9070(76) moderate / 0.9023 minor / 0.9000 psychological

Aussy saw a follow through sell-off yesterday despite the spinning top in the day prior to it on reports of hedge fund activity. In the end we extend the sell-off from Wednesday last week to ease down to just above the 78.6 Fiob retracement of our rally from August. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold levels and macd’s heading lower even as EMA lines begin to open up with 21D EMA falling steeply after the dead crosses last week. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys between 4H stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is heading up for the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic bearish and macd’s heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for shorts from under the daily pivot in European morning trade or coming off R1 at 0.9190.

USDJPY

Resistance: 101.37 moderate / 101.60 moderate / 101.91 minor
Support: 101.12 minor / 100.87 moderate / 100.43 moderate

In the end with equity markets getting nowhere and generally bearish we have USDJPY with a bearish engulfing at the close seeing stochastic come off overbought areas while the macd indicators is topping off. Note we have a big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines that mean reversion is also a distinct possibility. From the 4H picture we have stochastic hugging oversold levels while macd is heading lower, we have seen a steady drop of the candles highs and lows for this time period. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is also bottoming out. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a break of 101.12 could be seen as a bearish entry for 100.43, we will also consider selling if prices stay under 101.37 by the time European markets open.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.4888 minor / 1.4933 moderate / 1.4991 moderate
Support: 1.4841 moderate / 1.4820 moderate / 1.4753 moderate

With Aussy taking a hit and the Euro bouncing off EMA lines EURAUD managed to rally Tuesday pushing past Monday’s shooting star highs seeing indicators with further buys. From indicators we see daily stochastic overbought and macd’s heading up while EMA lines are also pushing higher. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in the 4H level with stochastic remaining above the 80 threshold while is pushing back up through its signal line, price action has us testing yesterdays highs. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing higher while macd is flat below the signal line. Given the general picture we expect to see a bullish Euro and bearish Aussy to continue to drive EURAUD up for the psychological 1.5000 level. Consider buys at the break of 1.4888 or on a bounce off 1.5841.

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