Articles by Mark De La Paz

EURCHF
Resistance: 1.2217 minor / 1.2256 moderate / 1.2274(83) moderate
Support: 1.2168(71) moderate / 1.2142 moderate / 1.2121 minor

After covering gap from its open monday, EURCHF saw another big sell-off getting rejected from the daily EMA lines as the Euro area faces turmoil on Cyprus rejection of the terms for its bail out. Daily indicators has stochastic taking a peak off oversold levels though we expect it to oscillate around 20 as we see prices push under the moderate support at 1.2168(71) while macd is bearish. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals as well in 4H charts with stochastic crossing just off the 20 mark while candlesticks are indecisive and macd bearish. Hourly charts has macd’s flat under the signal line while stochastic is trying to cross up. Given the immediate support we prefer looking for a close under 1.2168 before shorting. Alternatively we could look for shorts from under 1.2257. Note we have a double bottom forming in hourly charts.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0384 minor / 1.0413 moderate / 1.0443 moderate
Support: 1.0356 minor / 1.0340 moderate / 1.0318(21) moderate

Aussy sold-off Tuesday getting rejected from the 200D SMA and its 61.8 Fib retracement for the year’s sell-off. At this point we have prices just above the 55D EMA, a previous bounce off point. From indicators we have macd’s pushing higher while stochastic is coming off overbought levels. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in 4H charts with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Note we have a double top from the price charts. Hourly indicators for their part has a flat macd and stochastic heading lower. For now we prefer looking for a bounce off 1.0340 though an hourly close under the 55D EMA, 1.0340 will also be seen as a bearish entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2877 strong / 1.2923 moderate / 1.2962 minor
Support: 1.2803(14) moderate / 1.2765 minor / 1.2734 minor

With the Cypriot rejection of their bail out terms we have Euro closing Tuesday under the key support at 1.2877 50 Fib retracement of the rally from July 2012. Note we have a bearish engulfing for the daily candle. Among indicators daily stochastic is oversold while macd is beginning to open lower. Intraday we have had a high wave candle in New York trade from the 4H picture with macd’s dropping and stochastic just crossing up. Hourly macd is bottoming out while stochastic is coming off oversold areas. For now we prefer looking for a push past the high wave candle lows before jumping short though with prices under a strong resistance the longer it takes for us to move back up the more we will consider shorting at market by European midday trade.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0413 moderate / 1.0443 moderate / 1.0475 moderate
Support: 1.0387 minor / 1.0364 minor / 1.0340 moderate

Following the rally off its bearish gap from the open we have Aussy closing just under the 200D SMA with the bounce off daily EMA lines looking set to push past the 61.8 Fib of our sell-off for the year, 1.0413. Among indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought levels while daily macd is still rising, we have prices currently pushing past the 200D SMA. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower in line with the bearish macd. Hourly charts however had a bullish macd and a stochastic at risk of crossing higher. For now we prefer remaining sidleined with a close above 1.0413, 61.8 Fib a likely trigger for further gains. Take too long for a push through the said price and we may end up looking for shorts by the time European markets are open.

USDJPY
Resistance: 95.88 minor / 96.25 moderate / 96.59 minor
Support: 95.43 minor / 95.08 moderate / 94.81 minor

After gapping lower at the open of Wellington markets yesterday we have USDJPY rallying in whipsaw markets to cover its bearish gap with prices now back above the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have mixed signals in the daily charts with stochastic crossing higher and macd’s with a new bear cross. Intraday we have macd bottoming out in 4H charts, nearing a bullish cross, while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly indicators are also seeing a confluence of buts with stochastic again poised to push for overbought levels while macd is rising. Note we appear to have a double top forming in the hourly picture. For now we prefer looking for a buy on dips to 95.08 our moderate support though we do not expect a bug surge this early as the BoJ transitions to a Kuroda leadership from Shirakawa’s today.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2967 minor / 1.2994(00) moderate / 1.3042 minor
Support: 1.2923 minor / 1.2877 strong / 1.2825 minor

In the end Euro’s attempt to cover its gap from the Wellington open Monday ended up with a long wick in the daily charts with late action unable to hold on to gains with prices still remaining under the 200D SMA. Yesterdays pullback highs were at the 50Fib retracement level for the sell-off from Friday highs. In intraday charts we have mixed signals as stochastic is poised to cross lower in 4H charts while macd has bottomed out. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys between macd and stochastic. For now with little sense of urgency a moderate resistance at 1.2994(00), we prefer looking for shorts from the said price, 50Fib retarcement ang psychological resistance area.

EURJPY
Resistance: 122.70 minor / 123.06 moderate / 123.50 moderate
Support: 121.19 minor / 121.62 moderate / 121.08 moderate

Markets saw a sharp sell-off at the open of Wellington trade as Cyprus over the weekend decided to slap deposits with a one-time tax. We have EURJPY selling off to the 55D EMA in Wellington trade though seeing a bounce there after. Among indicators the news has pulled daily stochastic into oversold levels while macd’s has also crossed lower. Note we now have a double top in the weekly charts following the gap down. In the 4H picture we have prices just around the 23.6 Fib of the drop from Friday high, 122.57, with stochastic trying to come-off oversold area though macd is heading lower. Hourly charts is similarly seeing a bullish cross in stochastic and bearish macd. Given the extent of the earlier gap and sell-off along with talk of renogotiating the levy, we are looking for markets to try to cover the gap, a bounce to atleast the 34D EMA at 123.06.

EURGBP
Resistance: 0.8575 moderate / 0.8602 minor / 0.8631 minor
Support: 0.8532(35) moderate / 0.8449 moderate / 0.8363 moderate

After gapping down at the open of Wellington market for the week we had EURGBP seeing a further sell-off to see sub 55D EMA levels by the time Japanese markets opened. We have now triggered a daily level double top with pattern target at 0.8338. Looking at indicators we have daily stochastic oversold and macd’s opening lower. In intraday charts we have 4H macd’s and stochastic heading lower while at the hourly level we have stochastic oversold and macd heading down. Note we have already seen the average daily range within two hours of markets reopening for the week For now we prefer looking for a sell on rallies to the 0.8575 moderate resistance. Going forward we expect to see a substantial reversal of the gains in EURGBP for the year.

USDJPY
Resistance: 95.00 psychological / 95.43 minor / 95.88 minor
Support: 94.16 minor / 94.14 strong / 93.79 moderate

Friday saw USDJPY closing under the earlier lows for the week and around the day’s lows to suggest a bearish breakout following a mostly ranging trading week. Daily indicators already have stochastic heading for oversold levels then with macd’s now crossing lower. Note given the turmoil caused by the Cypriot bank levy we expect to see a risk averse market for the day. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals out of 4H stochastic and mace the former coming out of oversold levels as we almost fully covered the gap from the open. Note we have a double top triggered in the 4H candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has price action suggesting a loss of momentum with short covering already done and market likely to head down again though stochastic is still pointing up. For now immediate objective will be a retest of the days lows at 94.14 a strong support level possibly a drop to the 34D EMA at 93.79.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0395 moderate / 1.0413 moderate / 1.0462 minor
Support: 1.0362 minor / 1.0341 moderate / 1.0307 moderate

Aussy turned-out to be among the surprise winners in Thursdays trade following better than expected jobs numbers, the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 5.4% as the economy generated 71,500 new jobs. At the moment we have Aussy just under the 200D SMA at 1.0395 while daily stochastic is just above 80 and macd is rising. Intraday charts we have sell signals out of hourly macd and stochastic suggesting a pullback to 1.0341, the previous weekly double top trigger. From the 4H picture we jave mixed signals with stochastic dropping and macd topping of while candlesticks show a loss of momentum. We prefer a sell on rallies look for a rejection from the 200D SMA.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 145.13 minor / 145.77 moderate / 146.36 moderate
Support: 144.76 moderate / 144.07 moderate / 143.56 minor

Given the huge rally in Cbale yesterday we have GBPJPY closing just above the resistance level at 144.76. right under its daily highs. From daily indicators we have a rising macd and stochastic pushing higher, with the Thursday rally a bounce off EMA lines. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts with stochastic overbought and macd opening up. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic heading to oversold levels and macd topping off. Note that we have GBPUSD just under the 21D EMA, a sharp rejection in the pair could see GBPJPY coming off the 144.76 moderate support level. Look to short only on a close under the said price or coming off 145.77.

USDJPY
Resistance: 96.17 minor / 96.49 minor / 96.70 minor
Support: 95.94 minor / 95.67 moderate / 95.44 minor

Thursday saw USDJPY with a long wick and modest tail for a daily spinning top inside the range for the week. Indicators show a bullish macd staying above the signal line though mostly flat while stochastic has come off overbought areas. We appear to have a flag pattern in the daily picture. From the lower time frames we have a bearish 4H macd with stochastic pointing down and price charts seeing a broad double top. Hourly charts are equally bearish with macd below the signal though flat while stochastic is heading lower. We have just heard of the confirmation for BoJ Governor Kuroda and his deputies Iwata and Nakaso making for a very dovish MPC in the next BoJ meeting. Look for a buy on dips to 95.67, the weeks congestion floor.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5119 moderate / 1.5152 minor / 1.5189 moderate
Support: 1.5073 minor / 1.5042 minor / 1.5000 psychological

Cable saw a huge rally Thursday bringing prices to the 21D EMA line, 1.5119. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing higher still looking to push overbought while macd is also heading up. From the 4H picture we have narrow bodied spinning top in Wellington trade with stochastic overbought and macd pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has macd topping out while stochastic has just crossed up. Note we have a flag pattern in the hourly charts. At this point we are waiting for bears to come into the picture with sell stops below the congestion lows at 15073 for a pullback to the psychological support level at 1.5000.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0341 strong / 1.0367 minor / 1.0386 moderate
Support: 1.0309 minor / 1.0283 moderate / 1.0266 minor

Tuesday saw a follow through rally in Aussy despite disappointing numbers once more with the NAB Business Confidence index slipping to 1 as commodities in general rallied early in New York trade. For the moment we have prices just under the 55D EMA with an even stronger resistance at 1.0341 the weekly double top trigger. Indicators has stochastic pushing overbought while macd is rising. In the lower time frames we have stochastic just above 80 while macd is still rising though the candlestick from wellington trade is a hanging man. Hourly indicators for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd has crossed lower and price charts see a double top with its trigger at 1.0309. For now we are looking for a close under 1.0309 to trigger a bear market. Alternatively look for a rejection from 1.0341 with tight stops above the said price.

USDJPY
Resistance: 96.28 minor / 96.70 minor / 97.79 moderate
Support: 95.70 minor / 95.27 minor / 94.80 moderate

With the sudden reversal in the strong US equity open and opposition to Iwata’s nomination as BoJ Deputy Governor we have USDJPY with a sudden bearish engulfing in daily charts yesterday though indicators remain bullish with stochastic still overbought and macd pointing up. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals as candles in 4H charts show spinning tops and doji’s following the pullback yesterday. We have macd’s heading lower while stochastic has crossed up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with macd just crossing up along with the stochastic. For now we prefer remaining sidelined with the mixed indicators from different time frames suggesting caution. Look for a close above 96.28 before buying or a close under 95.70 for a mean reversion plays.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.2637 minor / 1.2675 moderate / 1.2700 minor
Support: 1.2605 minor / 1.2568 moderate / 1.2535 minor

Tuesday saw EURAUD finally pushing through the 61.8 Fib retracement level of its rally for the year following two weeks of range play above 1.2675. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing back to oversold territory while macd is heading lower and the EMA lines are seeing new dead crosses. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels in 4H charts while macd is trying to bottom out and price actions has a series of spinning tops. Hourly indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic just crossing higher in line with the macd. Immediate risk calls for a pullback in EURAUD though shorts off 1.2675 the breakout point aught to be considered.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 99.22 minor / 99.52(57) moderate / 100.00 psychological
Support: 98.84 minor / 98.61 moderate / 98.39 minor

AUDJPY saw a whipsaw day yesterday with a long tail at the close a considerable wick as well for a possible hanging man in the daily picture. From indicators we have stochastic flat in overbought levels while macd is rising, the gap between prices and EMA lines have widened the past few days suggesting the need for mean reversion. In 4H charts we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic just crossing up while macd is heading lower. Hourly indicators are similarly mixed with stochastic pointing higher and macd below the signal. For now we have USDJPY stuck in its own range pkay and AUDUSD looking vulnerable under key resistances. As such we prefer looking for a bearish breakout an hourly close under 98.84 will be our entry signal.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3044(45) moderate / 1.3079 moderate / 1.3117 moderate
Support: 1.3023 moderate / 1.2987 minor / 1.2954 moderate

After Friday’s big sell-off we have EURJPY with technical pullback as prices closed at 1.3000 last week failing to stay under the psychological price point. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to cross up with a bullish divergence in tow, while macd is also crossing higher. Intraday we have a broadening pattern in 4H charts suggesting atleast bearish momemtum is lost if not a bullish reversal with macd just crossing up and stochastic looking to push overbought. Hourly charts has macd’s heading up and stochastic looking to cross higher. At this point we seem to be consolidating after the recent hammering that Euro took with prices remaining under the daily EMA’s suggesting bearish breakouts are a possibility. For now we appear to be at risk of mean reversion the 21D EMA at 1.3117. Consider longs on a close above 1.3045.

EURJPY
Resistance: 125.96 moderate / 126.58 minor / 126.96 minor
Support: 125.20 minor / 124.82 moderate / 124.16 minor

EURJPY saw a modest rally monday following a push through the congestion resistances in New York trade, at 125.20 with price closing just around Friday’s highs covering the long wick of our daily shooting star. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is heading up as prices try to push back into a range play from 2009/early 2010. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts stochastic overbought macd above the signal though flat while candlesticks show momentum even in the Wellington trade. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought areas and candlesticks showing a shooting star. For now we prefer buying but only on a close above 125.96. Alternatively look for buys following a pullback to the 125.20 breakout point. Talk out Japan continues to suggest a bullish market with consensus in the BoJ looking for a further expansion in monetary policy.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0296 moderate / 1.0315 moderate / 1.0341 strong
Support: 1.0267 moderate / 1.0241 moderate / 1.0204(08) moderate

Monday saw Aussy closing strongly sticking to the highs above the 21D EMA as prices finally see a daily close inside the EMA lines. From indicators we have stochastic crossing higher with macd also pointing up suggesting we push further inside the EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have an overbought stochastic while macd is pushing up and candlesticks show loss of momentum, though this during the Wellington market. Note we have an inverted head and shoulder in the 4H level. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic at risk of crossing up while macd is also bullish. Calendar wise we have seen weaker than previous results in the Business Confidence index for for February from NBA at 1 against the prior 3 with Conditions reading -3. Given the charts immediate risk suggests we make a run for the key resistance at 1.0341 though fail to make a move early on and we will look for prices to ease below the 1D EMA, ah hourly close under 1.0267 would be an excuse to look for a bear market.

USDJPY
Resistance: 96.55 minor / 96.72 moderate / 97.49 minor
Support: 95.78 moderate / 95.50 minor / 94.98(00) moderate

USDJPY managed to see a strong follow through to Thursday bullish breakout with strong US Jobs data seeing a broadly firmer dollar. From the daily picture candlesticks suggests momentum is building while we have an overbought stochastic and bullish cross in macd. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic poised to cross up inline with the bullish macd. Hourly charts has a double top with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd heading lower. Given the latter we prefer looking for a pullback to the daily pivot at 95.78 initially before going long with stops under 95.50 the double top trigger.

EURJPY

Resistance: 125.20 minor / 125.84(94) moderate / 126.56 minor
Support: 124.64 moderate / 123.83 minor / 123.30 minor

Given the focus on a strong dollar Friday and the consequent losses in Euro we had EURJPY with a whipsaw unable to hold on to the risk appetite gains as EURUSD sold off. Daily indicators has stochastic crawling around overbought areas while macd has a new bullish cross over. Note we have reentered the previous descending triangles range. From the 4H picture we have macd’s flattening above the signal though stochastic has just crossed up the new crossover suggesting we look for a push past the immediate minor resistance at 125.20. Hourly charts has stochastic looking to reenter overbought levels with a new bullish cross while macd is flat under the signal. For now we prefer a buy on dips to 124.64 though a break of 125.20 may also be seen as a bullish entry for a rin to 125.84 then on to projected highs at 126.38.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 143.55 minor / 144.07 moderate / 144.76 moderate
Support: 143.00 moderate / 142.40(46) moderate / 141.50 moderate

Following strong USD jobs numbers we had GBPJPY with a follow through risk taking rally only to end the day with a shooting star as broad dollar strength saw Cable with new lows under 1.5000. Among indicators we have mixed signals in the daily charts as stochastic comes off overbought areas while macd has new bullish crossover. From the 4H picture we have a bullish bias with macd’s above the signal line and stochastic about to cross higher while candlesticks see a bullish harami. Hourly charts has macd’s heading down and stochastic poised to follow. Overall we have a bullish view for the yen pairs. Given the succession of moderate supports with the EMA’s at 142.40(46) we prefer a buy on dips though sustaining any rally may be difficult past Friday’s highs given the weak Cable.

EURJPY
Resistance: 124.63 moderate / 125.00(21) psychological / 125.94 moderate
Support: 123.86 minor / 123.30 minor / 122.81 moderate

After a long wait through the first half of the week we finally have EURJPY pushing past the 34D EMA and through the subsequent 21D EMA with prices now back inside the range of the previous descending triangle. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels and still pointing up while macd has also just crossed higher. In the lower time frames we have 4H candlesticks losing momentum in Wellington trade while stochastic is overbought and macd is rising. Hourly charts has macd poised to cross lower while stochastic is already well on its way to the 20 mark. At this point a combination of leadership changes in the BoJ and expectations over US jobs results later would mean focus is on further gains. For now we prefer a buy on dips to at least 123.86.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 143.00 moderate / 143.55 minor / 144.07 moderate
Support: 142.12(30) moderate / 141.60 moderate / 141.09 minor

Thursday saw GBPJPY push past the daily EMA lines inline with the broader risk taking appetite. Market appears to be pricing in the idea of a strong US job figure for February given recent figures. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought while macd has also crossed up. Intraday charts however appears to have a different view with price action showing a gravestone doji in the 4H candlesticks and stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is bullish. From the hourly picture we appear to be at risk of crossing lower in both macd and stochastic with a descending triangle forming among the candlesticks. Immediate risk calls for a pullback under the daiy EMA’s. We prefer looking for a bounce off the 55D EMA at 141.60 or after base building above the 142.12(30) region.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0273 moderate / 1.0314 moderate / 1.0341 strong
Support: 1.0258 minor / 1.0243 moderate / 1.0214 moderate

Aussy pulled back to the daily EMA lines Thursday on a broad based risk taking with pruces now just under 1.0273 the 21D EMA. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys though stochastic appears to be faltering under the 80 barrier while macd has a new bullish cross. From the lower time frames we have formed a double top in 4H charts with stochastic just crossing lower and macd flat above its signal line. Hourly indicators for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is poised to cross lower. For now we are looking for a bear market with a push under 1.0258 as our trigger. Note we have Chinese Trade Balance seen jumping to the deficit side, such a move would likely weigh on Aussy if coing worse than the -8.8 billion dollar consensus.

GBPUSD
Resistance:1.5042 minor / 1.5078 moderate / 1.5118 minor
Support: 1.5000 strong / 1.4966 moderate / 1.4909 minor

Cable managed to push back above the 1.5000 level as markets in general saw risk appetite and following the knee-jerk response to an ass-is decision on rates and the APF. Among indicators we have a flat macd with stochastic poised to push oversold. In intraday charts we have macd’s flat below the signal while stochastic has also just crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has macd flat aw well while stochastic is bullish. For now we prefer remaining sideline though we see more ranging action consider buys off 1.5000 and shorts at the approach of 1.5200.