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Articles by Mark De La Paz

November 22nd, 2013 @ 1:56 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0526 minor / 1.0548 moderate / 1.0568 minor
Support: 1.0516 minor / 1.0499 moderate / 1.0472 moderate

USDCAD saw a strong close Thursday,just under the days highs, as broader dumping of commodities and commodity currencies gave us a bounce of the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys with daily stochastic poised to push into overbought levels while macd has anew bullish cross. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s topping out. Note we have key data coming out of Canada later on with the month-on-month Retail Sales figures expected to read 0.2% for core and 0.3% in the headline. We are also seeing CPI figures around the same time at 1330GMT. Given the releases it would be bestto remain sidelined, a strong read will be an excuse to pullback to the daily EMA’s while poor numbers could see us pushing through the 1.0526 region.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9256 minor / 0.9285 moderate / 0.9320 minor
Support: 0.9221 moderate / 0.9177 moderate / 0.9112 moderate

Along with the rest of the commodity currencies we saw Aussy with a sharp sell-off this on a combination of RBA policy and the growing idea that the commodity super cycle for the past decade ha ended. Looking at the indicators we have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold in the daily charts while macd’s are heading lower and EMA lines see new dead crosses.Note we are just above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our rally from August lows. In intraday charts we are seeing signs of a technical correction after the huge sell-off the past two days. Hourly indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has bottomed out. In the 4H level we have a hammer in the candlesticks while stochastic is coming out of oversold areas though macd remains bearish. For the moment with prices coming off the 61.8 fib for the first time our immediate risk is a technical correction a bounce off 0.9221 for 0.9285 though we would look for a rejection of the said price.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6209 minor / 1.6238 minor / 1.6260 moderate
Support: 1.6178 minor / 1.6144 moderate / 1.6115 moderate

Cable saw a huge surge Thursday with GBPUSD closing at its highs pushing past the prior range play tops while daily indicators now have stochastic crawling overbought and macd’s above zero also heading up. This following a bounceoffthedaily EMA lines. Note this is a follow through to last weeks descending wedge breakout while candlesticks show a bullish continuation matt hold pattern. From the lower timeframes we are keeping a bullish bias with 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd has crossed up. Hourly charts has stochastic oscillating in overbought levels while macd is also pushing higher. Overall we have a bullish bias in Cable with 1.6260 as the key price target. Look for a bounce off 1.6144 asour entry point though alternatively we may use a break of the days highs for a bullish entry point. It appears that we may be forming a triple top.

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November 21st, 2013 @ 5:28 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3445 moderate / 1.3477 minor / 1.3496 moderate
Support: 1.3411 moderate / 1.3390 minor / 1.3356 moderate

Euro saw a sharp sell-off Wednesday following reports that the ECB is considering negative interest rates, we find ourselves with a daily candlestick coming off 50 Fib retracement level for the drop from October 25 while prices pushed all the way through the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic heading lower while macd’s lines are under zero though they have yet to see a bear cross. Intraday we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd’s poised to push below the zeroline though we have a “dragon fly doji” from the Wellington session. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking for a bear cross while macd’s are flat below zero. With the changing view from the ECB we prefer looking focusing on the sellside, ideally after a pull back to 1.3477 but we will considering selling off 1.3445 if we remain just under the price by the open of European markets. Alternative entry will be a break of the 1.3412 area.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1253.85 moderate / 1261.67 minor / 1271.69 minor
Support: 1240.71 minor / 1231.27 moderate / 1224.46 minor

Gold saw a sharp sell-off in afternoon US trade, as the Fed Minutes indicate serious talk of a taper happening sooner rather than later. At the close we were just above the days lows with the break of 1251.60 from October reinforcing the idea of lower highs and lows. Among indicators we have a confluence of bears in the daily charts with stochastic in oversold areas and macd’s heading lower still. In the lower time frames we have stochastic in oversold levels from the 4H picture while in the hourly’s we are oscillating around 20. The macd indicators is bearish and below the zeroline for both hourly and 4H charts. We continue to favor the sell-side of XAUUSD though preference is for us to come-off a pullback rather than just jumping short. Look for bearish price action from just under the 1253.85 level, today’s central pivot. Note we prefer taking action only at the open of European morning trade.

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November 20th, 2013 @ 1:26 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3567 minor / 1.3600 minor / 1.3647 moderate
Support: 1.3524 moderate / 1.3492 moderate / 1.3463 minor

At the close we saw Euro well past the daily EMA lines with EURUSD getting an early boost in Pre-Tokyo trade from the dovish statements of Chairman Bernanke. In daily indicators we have stochastic overbought and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. With the break of the Mondays highs we now view the high wave candle then as a consolidation of previous gains. In intraday charts we have macd’s heading up and stochastic looking to push into overbought levels for the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with macd’s heading up and stochastic coming off slowly easing lower. Given the penchant to pullback following an EMA breakout our preference will be for a buy on dips back to the EMA longs though targets now call for a test of the 1.3647 region.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6135 moderate / 1.6165 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6093 moderate / 1.6065 moderate / 1.6045 moderate

Tuesday gave us a long tail and a small body in Cable though prices appear to be whipsawing just above the daily EMA lines. Note this consolidation comes after a bullisgh breakout last week from a daily descending wedge. Among indicators we have daily stochastic staying in overbought levels while macd’s have also crossed up though still around the still just above the zero threshold. From the 4H picture we have a series of spinning tops among the candlesticks with the indecision underscored buy a stochastic having trouble pushing overbought and macd’s above zero though staying flat below the signal line. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is topping off. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a buy on dips to the EMA line at 1.6065 is a potential trade. Looking for the open of Europe to give us a bounce off 1.6093 or a break of 1.6135.

EURJPY
Resistance: 135.96 moderate / 136.38 minor / 137.00 minor
Support: 135.46 moderate / 135.00 minor / 134.67 minor

EURJPY saw a bullish breakout pushing past the 135.46 price point to close just under Tuesday highs of 135.70. Daily indicators has stochastic crawling in overbought areas with macd’s rising. Given the nature of our break out a push past level not seen since 2009 we need to show an ability to stay above 135.46. Look for consolidation just above the breakout point. Intraday we have a new bullish cross in 4H macd while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic seeing a bearish divergence and macd’s flat above the signal line. Consider longs off 135.46 in European morning trade or at a push past 135.93 then.

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November 18th, 2013 @ 1:02 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3530 moderate / 1.3568 minor
Support: 1.3469 minor / 1.3446 minor / 1.3418 moderate

Despite managing to see a bullish engulfing at the close Friday, Euro failed to take out the 55D EMA putting prices immediately under a key resistance area the psychological 1.3500. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys stochastic having just pushed overbought Friday while macds see a new bullish though both signal and main line remain below zero. In 4H charts we have stochastic in the process of crossing lower while the macd main line is flaty above the signal even as we also seem to have a dark cloud cover forming in among the candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for a rejection from the daily EMA’s either a break of 1.3469 for an hourly double top or coming from just under the 55D EMA 1.3500.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6131 moderate / 1.6165 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6099 moderate / 1.6050 moderate / 1.6022 minor

Cable saw a follow through to a descending wedge breakout Friday with prices closing around their highs and well above the prior days high wave candle. Daily indicators show a confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing overbought and macd also pushing back above the zero line. For the moment we have prices just above the daily pivot though we are having trouble making a run for Friday highs. Note latest of the BoE suggests the possibility of an earlier tightening , excuse for making a run to the 1.6260 highs. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators with stochastic looking to reenter overbought areas and macd rising though price action suggests a possible ‘dark cloud cover’. Hourly charts has a new bear cross in macd and stochastic just coming off overbought levels. Immediate risks suggests a trigger of the hourly double top though we plan on going long off the 1.6050 region. Alternative entry a break of the 1.6131 immediate resistance.

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November 15th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3458 minor / 1.3497 moderate / 1.3530 moderate
Support: 1.3419 moderate / 1.3374 minor / 1.3327 moderate

Euro saw a hanging man at the end of the trading day with the 55D EMA preventing any follow through rally early on. Indicators show mixed signals from the daily chart though with stochastic faltering at the overbought threshold and macd’s heading lower while already beneath the zero line suggests we focus on the sell side. Note we have dead crosses in the daily EMA lines and prices below the central pivot. From the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in the 4H picture with stochastic heading lower and steady highs while macd’s are topping off. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s poised to drop below the zero line. Consider shorts from the 55D EMA line or just off the daily pivot if its already the European morning trade.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6080 minor / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6050 moderate / 1.6023 minor / 1.5994 moderate

Cable the past few weeks has formed a descending wedge, that calls for a bullish breakout though our attempt yesterdays turned out to be a high wave candle. Prices at this point remain above the daily EMA lines after barreling through Wednesday. Indicators show a confluence of buys with macd coming off zero with a bullish crossover while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Intraday we have mixed signals in the 4H charts with stochastic showing a divergence while macd is heading up. Hourly charts show more mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading down. Given the mixed intraday signals we prefer remaining sidelined despite calls for a follow through rally from the higher time frames. Looking to straddle at the open of European markets sell stops under 1.6050, buys on the congestion highs from Asian trade.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1288.52 minor / 1294.69 moderate / 1301.57 minor
Support: 1286.49 moderate / 1278.74 moderate / 1272.77 minor

Thursday saw Gold with a follow through rally to the piercing pattern as mean reversion continues. Daily indicators has stochastic well on its way up while macd is bottoming out. note we have prices just above the daily pivot at 1286.49. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are the opposite with stochastic pushing higher and macd’s flat below the signal line. For now given the lack of conviction and catalyst from the Asian session we will remain sideline though looking for a follow through rally to complete our mean reversion play for the 21D EMA. We will consider longs at the open of European markets.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.39(45) moderate / 100.84 moderate / 101.21 minor
Support: 99.76 moderate / 99.37 moderate / 99.09 minor

USDJPY saw a bullish engulfing for Thursday seeing new highs as equity markets rallied on Janet Yellen’s dovish stance in her confirmation hearings. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought and macd’s rising with prices fast approahcing R1 from pivots, 100.39. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in both hourly and 4H picture. Stochastic has just pushed overbought in both time frames while macd’s are seeing new bullish crosses. Note we are also getting reports of overwhelming support of Abenomics seemingly driving Yen bears. Consider a buy on dips to the 99.76 region, the daily pivot though any base building around 100.00 over the course of the day will be a welcome bullish entry.

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November 14th, 2013 @ 1:21 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8300 moderate / 0.8319 minor / 0.8348 moderate
Support: 0.8268 minor / 0.8245 moderate / 0.8211 moderate

Kiwi managed to push back up above the previous key support at 0.8228, 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30 lows, prices are now just below the 21D EMA at 0.8300. We have a bullish engulfing from the daily candlesticks, indicators show stochastic off oversold levels and macd’s bottoming out. Strangely enough earlier figures were actually disappointing for New Zealand as Retail Sales turned out at 0.3% against a 0.9% consensus and Core Retail Sales contracted -0.1% against the 1.4% consensus forecast. From indicators we are seeing bullish signals the 4h stochastic overbought while macd is looking to push backup above the zero line. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s rising. We are currently seeing an attempt to rally up basically keeping our range play from 0.8228 to 0.8500 intact.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6066 moderate / 1.6091 minor / 1.6115 moderate
Support: 1.6034 minor / 1.6000 moderate / 1.5963 moderate

Cable saw a sharp rally Wednesday for a bullish engulfing that has taken prices all the way through the daily EMA lines after closing well below them Tuesday. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up while macd is bottoming out nearing a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with 4H stochastic pushing overbought while macd is heading backup for the zero line. Note bullish momentum appears to be waning as we move higher the latest candle at risk of forming a spinning top. From the hourly picture we have mixed signals with stochastic showing a bearish divergence while macd is heading up. Note by this time impact of good jobs numbers and speculations over BoE intent should be fully priced in. For now we prefer remaning sidelined looking for shorts on a push below 1.6034 at the open of European markets.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3505 moderate / 1.3547 minor / 1.3588 minor
Support: 1.3479 minor / 1.3452 moderate / 1.3412 moderate

Wednesday saw a follow through rally in Euro taking prices up to the 55D EMA line. Indicators continue to show mixed signals for the big picture with stochastic looking poised for a run through the 55D EMA and macd trying bottoming out. From the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing back into overbought levels from the 4H picture while macd has just pushed through the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Note hourly charts show long wicks for the past three hours suggesting a possible pullback consider shorts at the break of 1.3480. Consider shorts at the break of 1.3479.

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November 13th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3460 strong / 1.3498 minor / 1.3534 moderate
Support: 1.3418 minor / 1.3374 minor / 1.3326 moderate

Euro saw a follow through to Friday’s piercing pattern eventually seeing a bullish close to just under key resistances despite a poor start in the European open. Daily indicators see mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s dropping while EMA lines are also looking bearish. Intraday we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s crossing lower. For the moment we are well resisted with little conviction either way. Consider buys on a close above 1.3460 or a drop below 1.3418.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1271.49 minor / 1276.31 minor / 1283.93 moderate
Support: 1265.22 minor / 1260.86 moderate / 1251.33 moderate

After Fridays consolidation Gold started the week with a big sell-off as markets once again talk of taper for December putting prices within striking distance of the previous swing lows, key support at 1251.33. Indicator wise we have stochastic crawling oversold for some time now while macd is also bearish in the daily picture. Note this all appears to be a continuation of a bearish engulfing in the weekly charts from two candles back. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to reenter oversold areas while macd is opening lower after being flat with its signal line. Hourly charts are mixed with a double bottom in the candlesticks and stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is below the signal and the zero threshold. Given the bearish big picture we prefer looking for shorts through from better prices. Allow for a technical correction and consider shorts from just under the pivot, 1271.49 at the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5893 minor / 1.5918 moderate / 1.5957 minor
Support: 1.5851 moderate / 1.5828 minor / 1.5775 moderate

Monday saw Cable with a big sell-off after inflation metrics turned out much weaker than consensus forecast seeing GBPUSD push through the key 1.5918 congestion floor, 23.6 Fib retracement level of the rally from the 9th of July. We now have daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd line is already below the zero threshold dragging its signal line down with i, to suggest a bear trend. Daily EMA lines are also at risk of seeing dead crosses. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making with Hourly stochastic looking to push oversold and macd’s for a bear cross. From the 4H picture we have stochastic looking for a bear cross inline with the bearish macd. For now we are bearish at market with a stop and reverse incase of an hourly close back above 1.5918. Else we will look for a further sell-off down to the 1.5775 area.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9316 moderate / 0.9343 minor / 0.9367 minor
Support: 0.9280 strong / 0.9265 minor / 0.9221 moderate

Aussy saw a bear candle at the close after spending much of the day in a range play. We now find ourselves just above the key support at 0.9280. Daily indicators see a confluence of bears with macd’s already under the zero line heading lower while stochastic is pushing further into oversold areas. The daily EMA lines are poised to see dead crosses. From the lower time frames we have a bearish bias though for the moment 4H stochastic has come off oversold levels, macd however is still bearish. Hourcharts for their part are mixed with stochastic looking to cross lower and macd heading up. Note we have quarterly Wage Price Index coming out at 0030GMT, a poor read would be an excuse to take out the 0.9280 support. Consider a straddle ahead of the data.

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November 8th, 2013 @ 1:29 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3420 minor / 1.3460 strong / 1.3498 minor
Support: 1.3380 minor / 1.3327 moderate / 1.3293 moderate

With US equities selling off EURUSD managed to see a sharp bounce after the surprise rate cut by the ECB with saw us pushing under and closing below the key 1.3460 support area. From indicators we continue to see mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s heading lower this as prices continue to drop further beneath the daily EMA’s. Note given the changing policy environment for the Eurozone we are looking for sustained weakness. In the lower time we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing higher and macd’s seeing new bear crosses. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold and macd cross up. With US NFP numbers coming out later the preferred course of action is to remain sidelined though we retain a bearish bias considering the big picture breakout and daily close below 1.3460.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9473 moderate / 0.9507 minor / 0.9538 moderate
Support: 0.9425 moderate / 0.9389 moderate / 0.9367 minor

Aussy sold off following better than expected US Advance GDP that saw the greenback firmer across the board. We now have prices just above the 55D EMA while indicators from multiple time frames suggests down side risk. Daily stochastic has just crossed lower with yesterdays drop while macd has bearish and is looking to push below zero. From the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling oversold while macd is also dropping. Hourly charts for their part we have macd’s down and stochastic knocking at the oversold threshold. At this point we have AUDUSD looking for its own seminal bearish breakout with a push under the 55D EMA likely opening the possibility of a sell-off to the key support at 0.9287. Consider shorts on a break of 0.9425, 55D EMA, or coming from the daily pivot at 0.9473.

EURGBP
Resistance: 0.8349 moderate / 0.8383 moderate / 0.8411 minor
Support: 0.8303 minor / 0.8288 moderate / 0.8223 moderate

We did not get a divergent policy environment from yesterdays Central Bank meetings as the BoE failed to mentioned any hint of removing the APF or raising rates. The ECB however surprise with a 25bps cut and we are now looking for the BoE’s minutes for clues on future policy. Technically we have daily indicators calling for a bear market as stochastic stay oversold and macd eased further under the zero line. These while daily EMA’s see dead crosses. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic actually seeing a bullish crossover while macd has just crossed lower. Hourly charts are the opposite with stochastic oversold and macd’s crossing up. For the moment we see little sense of urgency though bias is for the sell-side. Consider shorts coming off the current levels 0.8349 at the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6072 moderate / 1.6042 minor / 1.6008 moderate

After a knee-jerk sell-off on strong US Advanced GDP we have Cable recouping earlier losses in the middle of New York trade to close back above the daily EMA lines looking poised to continue our wide range play form 1.5918 to 1.6260 among the daily candlesticks. Indicators show daily stochastic pushing overbought while macd is also poised to cross higher. In the lower time frames we have bullish bias as 4H stochastic looks to push overbought and macd attempt to cross up. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish confluence with a new crossover in stochastic and macd’s heading up. Consider buys on a push above 1.6114 or a bounce off 1.6072. Note we are still looking for the 1.6260 region as our main target.

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