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Articles by Mark De La Paz

September 23rd, 2013 @ 1:47 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9409 minor / 0.9431 moderate / 0.9457 minor
Support: 0.9378(84) moderate / 0.9338 minor / 0.9285 moderate

Following a three week rally, Aussy saw a pull back in the latter half of the previous week with the move going all the way down to slightly under the 23.6 Fib retracement level of 0.9378. Daily indicators has mixed signals with stochastics heading lower and macd still bullish flat above the rising signal line. It appears that we are in the midst of mean reversion. In the 4H picture we still see mixed signals this time with macd’s heading down to the zeroline while stochastic is flat just above the oversold trigger. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic with macd’s also seeing a new bullish cross over. Note price action has a double bottom with 0.9431 as its trigger. For now we prefer seeing signs that bulls have really taken over by triggering the pattern before going long. Other wise we will go for a buy on dips to 0.9378(84) 21D EMA and 38.2 Fib levels respectively.  Note we have flash manufacturing PMI numbers for China at 0145 GMT.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3538 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3595 moderate
Support: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3472 minor / 1.3451 minor

Euro saw back-to-back spinning tops from Thursday and Friday following Wednesdays late spike off the taper retreat by the Fed. Elections over the weekend in Germany should reinforce the stronger currency on a big victory by Angela Merkel suggesting German opinions with regard to ECB policy will remain unchanged. Daily indicators has stochastic remaining in overbought areas while macd remains bullish. Intraday we continue to see a descending triangle from the 4H picture suggesting riskof a pullback though indicators are mixed at this level with stochastic rising and macd’s heading down. Hourly charts has macd’s crossing up though lines are flat just above the zero threshold. Stochastic has a new bullish crossover. For now we have prices just under the hypotenuse of our descending triangle and above the daily pivot. A drop under 1.3500 ought to be seen as a call for a technical correction.

EURJPY
Resistance: 134.22 moderate / 134.41 minor / 134.73 moderate
Support: 133.92 minor / 133.37 moderate /132.89 minor

Friday saw consolidation after a big rally in EURJPY the previous day, when equity market saw new highs as the Fed failed to taper. From indicators we currently have daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is on the rise. That said we may have a top as intraday signals are bearish. In the 4H charts we have stochastic poised to push over sold while macd has a new bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to push into over sold levels while macd is also at the brink of dropping through the zero line. Note we saw a drop through the 23.6 Fib retarcement level of our rally from Wednesday last week, while intermarket action suggests that the risks are for the sell side as US equities sold for Friday and their futures are still dropping. For now we prefer looking for shorts from just under 134.22.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6024 moderate / 1.60666 minor / 1.6100 moderate
Support: 1.5988 moderate / 1.5959 moderate / 1.5935 minor

Cable saw a pull back on the second half of the past week following a four week rally that culminated with last Wednesdays surge up. We currently have price just at the 23.6 Fib retracement area of the rally with Friday’s candle a consolidation suggesting the worst may be over with the retreat. Note we are also in a mean reversion play. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading up from the 4H picture while macd is bearish. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s also rising. Bias calls for triggering an hourly double bottom with a close above 1.6024 serving as our entry. However we also have equal risk of a further pullback given the current mean reversion with the 21D EMA line still at 1.5825. Shorts may also be taken under 1.5988.

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September 20th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3535 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3596 minor
Support: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3451 minor / 1.3383 minor

A day after the Fed pulled back from the taper story we have EURUSD failing to hold in its attempts at a follow through rally the daily candles now showing a long wick for a shooting star. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought areas while macd is also pushing up though the huge gap between prices and the EMA lines suggests we have pressure for mean reversion. In the lower time frames we have the hourly charts with a bearish macd while stochastic is trying to cross lower, 4H charts for their part has macd’s flat above the signal though stochastic is at risk of crossing higher. Price action itself is very mixed with spinning tops in the hourly charts. Given the big rally for the week, mixed intraday charts and this being Friday along with our bare calendar we expect to see some pullback, consider shorts at the break of 1.3500.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9464 moderate / 0.9483 minor / 0.9500 psychological
Support: 0.9425 minor / 0.9387 moderate / 0.9365 minor

Aussy saw a pull back in New York markets after the earlier consolidation following the strong rally in off the FOMC’s decision to hold-off any taper in the QE program. From indicators we have a bearish divergence forming out of stochastic while daily macd is heading up, prices for the moment are just under the daily pivot while EMA lines see more golden crosses. In thr 4h level we have mixed signals with stochastic trying to come off oversold levels while macd has a new bear cross and candlesticks see attempts to breakthrough the previous spinning top highs. Hourly charts has a bullish stochastic quickly heading for overbought levels while macd is bottoming out. Consider buys on a push back up above the daily pivot at 0.9464 for a rally toward the psychological 0.9500 though we are looking to see our inverted head and should target at 0.9580.

EURJPY
Resistance: 135.00 psychological / 135.44 moderate / 136.10 minor
Support: 134.45 minor / 134.22 moderate / 134.00 moderate

Thursday saw the delayed response by Yen pairs to the FOMC’s decision for a status quo on the QE program. EURJPY took the lead on the extent of the rally as USDJPY’s finally managed to move up in tandem with the European equity rally. Indicators now have stochastic in overbought levels for EURJPY while macd is also heading up. Note we are now entering levels last seen in 2010. In intraday charts we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels while macd is rallying up in the 4H picture. hourly charts for their pat has stochastic just crossing lower and macd’s dropping as well. Note we appear to be forming a double top in hourly charts with the trigger at 134.22 23.6 fib retracement of the FOMC driven rally. For now we prefer remaining sidelined until the open of Europe, looking for shorts under 134.22.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1368.27 minor / 1373.77 moderate / 1382.08 moderate
Support: 1359.18 moderate / 1354.00 minor / 1349.95 moderate

Thursday saw gold a with a modest range play staying above the daily EMA lines following Wednesday bullish break though seeing little progress, stuck on a range play post FOMC announcement. Note we have XAUUSD hitting the bearish trendline from August 28 highs, while the main reason for Gold’s prior rally has dissipated, risk of a Syrain confrontation. indicator wise we have daily stochastic overbought and macd seeing a new bulish crossover. From the lower time frames we have macd’s topping off while stochastic is poised to push oversold. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Given the fundamental picture and elevated prices we prefer looking for shorts with a drop under 1359.18 triggering a pullback immediate object the 1350 area.

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September 18th, 2013 @ 1:41 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8247 moderate / 0.8269 minor / 0.8300 minor
Support: 0.8210 moderate / 0.8181 minor / 0.8155 moderate

Kiwi surge to the 61.8 Fib retracement level of its big sell-off from May 5 closing Tuesday barely above the 0.8220 pullback point. Daily indicators are seeing mixed signals with stochastic showing a bearish divergence as it comes-off overbought levels while macd is pushing higher. From the 4H picture we are seeing a bearish bias as stochastic comes-off the 80 threshold while macd is opening lower, note we have a three black-crows pattern in 4H charts. Hourly’s for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd sees a new bear cross. Immediate risk is for a rejection from the 61.8% Fib retracement level for a retest of the 0.8155 area. Note we suggest a scaled entry at market and then off 0.8247 should we bounce.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9358 moderate / 0.9387 moderate / 0.9416 minor
Support: 0.9327 moderate / 0.9304 minor / 0.9284 moderate

Earlier attempts at covering the gap failed for Aussy as we briefly say new lows for the week before bouncing backup to close with a bullish spinning top. Daily indicators show macd’s heading up with gradual bullish slope while stochastic is at risk of a bear cross and bearish divergence over all-though we are bullish in the medium with recent golden crosses. From the 4h picture we have formed a double-top from this weeks price action while stochastic is coming-off overbought levels and macd has a bullish cross. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for a bear market, completing the double top in 4H charts though our preferred course of action is looking for buys off the 0.9284 region.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.67 moderate / 132.89 minor / 133.36 moderate
Support: 132.39 moderate / 132.13 moderate / 131.71 moderate

Tuesday saw EURJPY marginally higher with a limited bullish breakout as conflicting triggers weighed on the ability to generate range. At the moment we appear to have charts in the process of seeing another bullish run as daily stochastic has crossed up though macd has yet to open higher. In the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals as macd’s head up and stochastic points lower. Hourly charts are the opposite with stochastic heading up and macd’s down. For the moment we are seeing little sense of urgency in EURJPY, as such we prefer remaining sidelined though a bounce off 132.39, the daily pivot would be ideal.

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September 17th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9325 moderate / 0.9354 moderate / 0.9386 moderate
Support: 0.9304 minor / 0.9280 moderate / 0.9253 minor

In the end we have along wick in Aussy as attempts to see a follow through to our bullish gap failed to hold for a ‘grave stone doji’ in the daily candlestick. Note we have an event risk at 0130GMT with the RBA releasing the minutes for the latest Monetary Policy Meeting, talk about changes in domestic fiscal policy and improvement in the external situation will be seen as hawkish. From indicators we have buy signals allover with the daily stochastic seeing a new bullish cross in line with the rising macd’s while EMA lines has new golden crosses. Note our previous inverted head and shoulder pattern remain valid with its target at 0.9580. Intraday we have a bearish bias with 4H stochastic oversold and macd at risk of a bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic seeing anew bearish crossover and macd poised to push under the zero line. Immediate calls for covering our gap with a break of 0.9304 as a possible entry though medium term we are a buy on dips.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3350 minor / 1.3385 moderate / 1.3405 moderate
Support: 1.3324 moderate / 1.3307 minor / 1.3281 moderate

New York trade eventually saw EURUSD begin the process of covering its big gap from the open with prices also hitting levels that define the years range play in the earlier jump. We are now in the process of mean reversion though indicators has daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is also heading up. From the lower time-frames we are seeing sell signals with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s also crossing lower in 4H charts. Hourly charts has stochastic poised at a bear cross while macd is looking to ease under the zero line. Given yesterdays price action and the intraday charts we prefer looking for a pull back to the daily EMA lines with 21D EMA at 1.3281 and projected lows at 1.3265.Consider shorts just under the 1.3324 moderate support, last weeks highs. Note we could be forming a big picture double top.

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September 16th, 2013 @ 2:06 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 132.39 minor / 132.59 moderate / 132.85 moderate
Support: 132.12 moderate / 131.64 moderate / 131.38 minor

Friday saw a further pullback in EURJPY though developments over the weekend has the market turning, pushing into the real body of Friday’s drop. Note we have risk taking tone from the open as prospects of Syrian disarmament move forward.From indicators we are currently seeing a mixed view across multiple time frames though we note the below pivot open for the week and subsequent push up above it. We have daily stochastic still heading down while macd is above the signal though flat. In the 4h picture stochastic has a bullish cross while macd is down. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd heading up. At the moment with the bullish gap at the open of Euro, we risk getting dragged lower as gaps are covered though we have a buy on dips view from either 132.12 or 131.64 provided price action suggests its time to pickup.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.04 moderate / 99.36 moderate / 99.59 minor
Support: 98.71 moderate / 98.52 moderate / 98.10 minor

USDJPY gapped lower at the open of Wellington markets as markets dumped the greenback across the board with the threat of US airstrikes in Syria averted. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic in oversold levels while macd has also crossed lower. Note we have prices currently within the EMA lines the 55D EMA acting as an immediate support. In the lower timeframes we are seeing a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic remaining oversold and macd’s heading down. Hourly charts for their part see a bear cross in stochastic joining an already bearish macd. At this point we prefer remaining sidelined as fundamentals suggest we look for risk appetite and Japanese markets remain closed. We are waiting for the open of European equities to give us a lift a push backup above the daily EMA’s and cover the bearish gap.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9354 moderate / 0.9391 moderate / 0.9416 minor
Support: 0.9318 moderate / 0.9280 moderate / 0.9253 minor

Among the majors AUDUSD appears to have made the most of developments over the weekend as we opened with a bullish gap worth an average daily range. With the threat of financial turmoil out of Syrian campaign averted we now rsume the prior trends AUDUSD looking for a further surge up from he inverted SHS triggered. We have daily stochastic crossing up inline with the macd’s and new golden crosses from the EMA lines. Intraday we have 4H stochastic poised to push overbought while macd also has a new bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic overbought and macd’s rising. Given the big gap from the open we prefer getting some consolidation letting market be comfortable with current prices before looking for the surge through last Thursdays swing highs. Alternative look for a buy on dips to the 0.9280 region. Note this is all part of a correction for the sell-off from April to August.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5953 minor / 1.5989 moderate / 1.6000 psychological
Support: 1.5929 minor / 1.5883 minor / 1.5845 moderate

Cable gapped higher at the open getting a further boost on developments over the weekend in Syria following through its own rally Friday as GBPUSD is now back inside the congestion from August of last year to earlier this January, a big double top. Among indicators we have bullish argument for multiple time-frames with stochastic crawling overbought in the daily charts, 4H picture and hourly levels. The moving average convergence divergence is also bullish for the said time frames. Given he recent series of good economic numbers out of the UK we are looking forward to see Cable in a range play from the 1.5800 to the 1.6300 levels, possibly more on the topside of the range. We prefer a buy on dips to 1.5883 though a push through the days highs at the open of Europe may also be seen as a bullish entry.

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September 13th, 2013 @ 1:54 am by Mark De La Paz

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XAUUSD
Resistance: 1333.69 minor / 1337.84 moderate / 1347.09 moderate
Support: 1327.98 minor / 1320.47 minor / 1309.91 moderate

With the US Sec.of State Kerry heading in Geneva for negotiating the Syrian disarmament with his Russian counterparts we have Gold selling off sharply as geopolitical risks are reduced. Note the weeks sell-off has taken XAUUSD down to its head and shoulder target of 1323.62. Indicator wise we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is looking to ease under the zero-line. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oversold while macd is also heading lower. From the hourly picture we have stochastic poised to push overbought and macd with a new bullish crossover. Note we have a piercing pattern from the 4H candles which suggest we look for a push higher. Today being Friday and with ongoing geopolitical issues over the weekend we risk position squaring, a bounce to the 1347.09 region 38.2 fib of our sell-off.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.75 minor / 133.02 moderate / 133.38 moderate
Support: 132.37 moderate / 131.88 moderate / 131.37 minor

Thursday ended up with a long tail as markets bounced following the open of the US and we saw more delays on the planned US air strikes in Syria. Daily indicators retain a bullish bias as macd’s stay above the signal lines and the zero threshold even as EMA lines point up though stochastic is once more trying to come off overbought levels. In 4H charts we have mixed signals as stochastic heads up along with price action while macd remains bearish, we had a dragon fly doji from the European midday break. Hourly charts has an overbought stochastic while macd is looking to push up through the zero line. With a bullish overall bias consider a buy on dips to the 132.37 region.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9281 moderate / 0.9318 moderate / 0.9355 minor
Support: 0.9255 minor / 0.9209 moderate / 0.9177 moderate

Aussy saw a bearish engulfing with yesterdays close as attempts to bounce failed to hold their highs, withthe coming weekend and event risks we now face a potential technical correction. From indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is also topping out, we risk mean reversion play after a two week rally. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic heads upcoming off oversold levels while macd for its part is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is flat above the signal line. It appears that there is little sense of urgency with the pairs though given the engulfing candle we favor looking for further weakness. Consider shorts on a push below 0.9255,our objective the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our rally the past two weeks at 0.9177, projected lows are at 0.9180. Note we are equally willing to buy on an hourly close above 0.9281.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5805 moderate / 1.5839 moderate / 1.5891 moderate
Support: 1.5772 moderate / 1.5743 minor / 1.5685 moderate

Cable saw a consolidation as attempts for a follow through surged failed to see prices stay above 1.5820 the previous weekly double top breakout point. From indicators we remain bullish with stochastic overbought still though seeing a cross while macd is still heading up, price action suggests a loss of momentum. From the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd also has a new bear cross, note we have prices under the daily pivot to underscore the down siderisks. In hourly charts we have stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also heading lower. Note after a sharp rally the past two weeks, and given signs of loss momentum along with the weekend our objective for now is to trigger the hourly double  top and possibly get a mean reversion play going.

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September 12th, 2013 @ 1:37 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5828 minor / 1.5862 moderate / 1.5895 moderate
Support: 1.5790 moderate / 1.5751(55) moderate / 1.5718 minor

After a quiet Asian trade Cable spiked up on more good news from the UK with stronger jobs growth and the unemployment rate easing to 7.7%. We now have GBPUSD back inside the double top range from August of last year to earlier in January. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is heading up. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing back into overbought levels while macd is also on the rise. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish stochastic with macd also seeing a new bear cross as we spent much of the rest of the day in consolidation following the data spike. At this wewe prefer to continue playing the buy side with a buy on dips to the daily pivot at 1.5790 or on a push past 1.5828.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.37 moderate / 133.80 minor / 134.53 moderate
Support: 132.79 minor / 132.42 moderate / 131.91 moderate

EURJPY saw a tight range play Wednesday with USDJPY dragging the pair lower even as EURUSD surged up. At the moment we have prices taking outthe immediate uspport at 132.79 though we face a moderate support at 132.42 and have very little news to move the market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crossing lower though still overbought while MACD for its part is still heading up. In the lower time-frames we are seeing calls for a pullback with 4H stochastic easing to oversold areas while macd has also seen a new bear cross. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also poised to drop under the zero line. Immediate risk calls for a bear market an hourly close under 132.79 maybe seen as a potential entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3324 moderate / 1.3344 moderate / 1.3363 minor
Support: 1.3307 minor / 1.3281 moderate / 1.3263 moderate

In the end we saw Euro with a strong rally Wednesday closing just under its highs following a surge in New York trade after a very tight range game in Asia and Europe. We now have daily stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is waiting to push back up above the zero line. From the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing into overbought areas in the 4H picture while macd’s are also rising. Hourly charts for their part are also seeing a confluence of buys as stochastic heads back up and macd stay above the signal line though looks flat. Price action itself suggests the market is waiting for a catalyst given the mostly ranging action. For now, look for a close above 1.3324 for a possible bullish entry with targets at 1.3385.

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September 11th, 2013 @ 1:55 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9318 strong / 0.9344 moderate / 0.9371 minor
Support: 0.9282 moderate / 0.9245 moderate / 0.9217 moderate

Aussy saw further gains as we got a follow through to the inverted head and shoulder breakout from Friday with data out of China and Australia itself showing marked improvement from the prior months trends. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought areas while macd’s are pushing and he EMA lines begin to see new golden crosses. Note we are once more looking at Aussy data, with Consumer Sentiment up for release at 0030GMT. In the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals as 4H charts remain bullish stochastic crawling overbought though macd is flat above the signal while hourly charts has a bear cross in macd and stochastic oversold. Price action itself has a ‘dark cloud cover’ in 4H charts. Immediate risk calls for a pull back though with the overal picture and changing economic trends we prefer a buy on dips to 0.9245 or follow through rally past 0.9318.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 93.57 moderate / 93.89 moderate / 94.43 minor
Support: 92.94(04) moderate / 92.30 moderate / 92.01 minor

Tuesday saw a sharp follow through rally for AUDJPY with prices nearing the daily double bottom target from Tuesday the previous week. Among indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd’s are also on the rise confirming the idea of a bullish trend even as EMA lines now have the 21D EMA crossing 55D EMA forming more golden crosses. Intraday we also have more bullish signals in the 4h charts with stochastic crawling overbought and macd heading up. hourly charts though is suggesting pullback risk with stochastic dropping and macd’s seeing a new bear cross. At this point we are looking forward to see a further rally a bullish cross in hourly stochastic could be our signal though we need to point that we are already within reach of the double bottom target.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.46 minor / 100.68 moderate / 100.88 moderate
Support: 100.07 moderate / 99.69 moderate / 99.34 moderate

With Syria reportedly agreeing to turnover its chemical weapons stockpile and the risk of a September taper now much reduced we have equity markets picking up once more and with the Yen pairs rallying. USDJPY Tuesday saw a bullish breakout closing past the previous swing highs from Wednesday last week at 100.22. Indicators show stochastic overbought in the daily having pushed back up monday while macd’s are also rising. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in 4h charts stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd’s pushing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also dropping. It appears that the 100.30 78.6 Fib retracement for the July sell-off is holding for now though overall trend remains bullish. At this point we would like to focus more on a buy on dips to 100.07 possibly 99.69 on a bullish cross from hourly stochastic or if we have along tail in the hourly chart.

Gold
Resistance: 1366.79 minor / 1370.34 moderate / 1382.90 moderate
Support: 1359.61 moderate / 1353.50 moderate / 1347.09 moderate

Gold saw a sharp sell-off Tuesday as the threat of an immediate military action in Syria has been averted with the US willing to pursue Russian proposal on dealing with the chemical weapons. With the Tuesday drop we are once more seeing a valid SHS breakout with the pattern target down to 1323.68. Indicators show stochastic poised to push oversold while daily macd is dropping and prices are currently back under the 55D EMA. In the intraday picture we have a bearish bias as 4H stochastic looks to push back under the oversold threshold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a new bear cross in stochastic with macd looking for its own bearish crossover. For now we are at a possible short just under the 1359.61 immediate support, our target is at 1347.09.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5754 moderate / 1.5781 moderate / 1.5811 minor
Support: 1.5719 moderate / 1.5685(95) moderate / 1.5650 minor

We continue to see further gains in Cable though yesterdays ranges was tighter. From the daily charts we saw new highs and a close just beneath 1.5744. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing overbought and macds with a new bullish cross. In the lower time frames we have 4h stochastic in overbought areas though at risk of coming off while macd is bullish. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic rising and macd’s flat below the signal line. Overall trend remains bullish in Cable as data out of the UK outpaces that of other G7 economies though there is little sense of urgency. For now look for buys off 1.5719, the daily pivot, should price action warrant or on a push past 1.5754.

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