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Articles by Mark De La Paz

August 28th, 2014 @ 2:22 pm by Mark De La Paz

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Just a grab on the Ukraine story:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – Russia is no longer leading the fighting in Ukraine “from behind,” a senior military officer from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said Thursday. “It is more overt now,” the official told Dow Jones Newswires. NATO says Russia has “well over” 1,000 troops operating in Ukraine now, and Ukraine on Thursday accused Russia of having seized a coastal town and several villages near the border with Russia. “It is clear that Russia is not willing to accept the defeat of the separatists,” Dow Jones Newswires quoted the officer as saying. “It will most likely do anything it takes to prevent such a defeat.” Russia has said any Russians fighting with the separatists are volunteers, but the officer said these are organized fighters. “You can have a rabble of people holding guns, or you can have an effective fighting force. And what we have here is the latter,” the officer said. A U.S. diplomat on Thursday called Russian claims that it is not destabilizing Ukraine “absurd.”

Looks like e are building an exuse for Gold to make a run one the 61.8 Fib retracement of the sell off the pat two months, at 1317.51. Such a move would also mean we trigger a descending wedge with a classic resistance breakout. The question here really is just what will the west do? Any hints of additional support in the military front by Europe and the US would be just the catalyst that’s needed to get things moving.

 

XAUUSDDaily

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August 28th, 2014 @ 10:16 am by Mark De La Paz

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Ukrainian President Poroshenko has cancelled a trip to Turkey to meet with the country’ defense council. Coinciding with the Ukraine Government’s tweeting of Novoazovsk falling to separatist hands and previous reports of Russian troops inside the country this is now being describe as a ‘Russian Invasion’.

Knee jerk response has been broad based gains for the Japanese Yen and Swis Fran with the dollar also coming off its earlier lows. Still for us to get more the the daily averages we will need third party confirmation on these developments. Focus now will be for the more exposed majors EURJPY and GBPJPY though it would also be interesting to see what the SNB will do as pries near its floor of 1.2000 for EURCHF.

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February 11th, 2014 @ 1:17 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8969 moderate / 0.9004 moderate / 0.9045 minor
Support: 0.8937 moderate / 0.8912 moderate / 0.8880 moderate

Aussy ended up with a ‘hanging man’ at the close monday as market saw little conviction with data elsewhere turning out weak in line with the US results Friday. For the moment we have prices stuck in between the EMAs while other indicators has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up, looking to push through the zero line. Note daily price charts show a fractal with its top a false break of the 55D EMA. Latest releases has Aussy numbers mixed with Business Confidence picking up reading 8 though house inflation pressures has eased and home loans contracted. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals out of the 4H charts while hourly indicators has a confluence of buys courtesy of data, stochastic crossing up while macd pushes clearly past the zero-line. That said we are looking for a test of the fractal highs at most the psychological resistance at 0.9000 and shorts there after.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3701 moderate / 1.3739 moderate / 1.3776 moderate
Support: 1.3649 minor / 1.3615 moderate / 1.3595 minor

Euro is seeing a strong start for Tuesday with a follow through to our trend line breakout, mondays close managing tostay above the resistance line off swing highs at 1.3893. Among indicators we have daily stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is looking to push up through the zero line. At this point we appear set tomake a run for the 1.3740 highs from January. From the lower timeframes we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic in both hourly and 4H charts looking to push back above the 80 threshold while macd’s are also heading up. Note we appear to be seeing markets attempting to price in a dovish sounding Janet Yellen in her first testimony as Fed Chairperson.

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February 10th, 2014 @ 1:35 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 139.94 moderate / 140.34 minor / 140.71 minor
Support: 139.50 minor / 139.04 moderate / 138.82 minor

At the close we have EURJPY around Friday highs just through the R1 then as markets expect the Fed’s taper to get bogged down with the weak Jobs numbers and equities rally on the idea. We appear to be seeing a follow through to Tuesday’s piercing pattern and the subsequent hammer off 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from November 07 of last year. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s at brink of a bullish cross over. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with the weeks open a slight upside gap while indicators show 4H stochastic oscillating around overbought areas and macd head up. Hourly charts has stochastic just off overbought levels and macd still heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for better pricing. Consider buys off the daily pivot particular if Asian equities see a strong start for the week. Note we have prices around the 21D and 34D EMA’s in need of a daily close above it.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3633(43) moderate / 1.3667 minor / 1.3703 minor
Support: 1.3611 moderate / 1.3585 minor / 1.3560 moderate

Euro managed to close Friday around its highs following the weak NFP numbers out of the US to see us just below the January bear channel resistance line for the moment. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing through the overbought barrier while macd also has a bullish crossover. Note we have prices just above the daily pivot after opening well inside the real body for Friday’s candle. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys as stochastic pushes back into overbought levels while macd is heading up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd above the signal line though we also appear to be topping off. We are maintaining a bullish view for the Euro though with little sense of urgency. Look for long hourly tails with real bodies still above the daily pivot, 1.3611 to signal that bulls are beginning to come in. Alternatively a push past Fridays highs at 1.3643 signals a bullish entry.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6418 moderate / 1.6454 moderate / 1.6488 moderate
Support: 1.6378 moderate / 1.6344 moderate / 1.6317 minor

After seeing long tails in the daily charts since Tuesday we finally saw Cable breaking higher courtesy of poor US jobs data. At the close we find prices just under the days highs and still just below the 21D EMA after crossing through the 55D and 34D EMA’s heading up. Despite the rally daily indicators see a mixed view as stochastic heads up while macd’s are still pointing lower just under the zero-line. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with side-by-side white candles in the making, a bullish continuation pattern while stochastic is overbought and macd’s have just pushed through the zero-line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading down and macd flat above the signal line. For the moment we have little sense of urgency through a push past the 21DEMA may be taken as an excuse to go long looking for a follow through rally.

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January 31st, 2014 @ 2:00 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1249.53 moderate / 1256.54 moderate / 1261.09 moderate
Support: 1241.72 minor / 1235.54 moderate / 1231.47 moderate

Gold saw a big sell-off Thursday pushing under the daily EMA lines and dragging indicators into a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for the over areas while macd has a new bear cross. Note overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. Recall we are in a rejection from the 38.2 fib retracement level of our sell-off from August. Intraday we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd has sold off. Hourly charts however suggests pullback risk with stochastic trying to cross up and macd seeing a bullish cross. For now we remain sidelined waiting for a break of 1241.72 to get the bears going.Key test will be the support at 1235.54 break of which opens the December congestion floor.

Aussy
Resistance: 0.8825 moderate / 0.8854 minor / 0.8890 moderate
Support: 0.8768 moderate / 0.8735 moderate / 0.8711 moderate

Aussy saw a rally Thursday closing around the days highs with indicators showing stochastic heading up and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. We are however well resisted at the 0.8825 region and by the daily EMA lines. Indicators however show a confluence of buys a bullish divergence in stochastic and a new bullish crossover in macd. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with the 4H stochastic in overbought areas while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s rising. At this point Aussy is well resisted though the bullish indicators suggests we probe the daily EMA’s. That said our preference may beto just play the crosses looking for an attempt in the topside in Aussy and a bearish Euro to see a big drop in EURAUD.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.5408 minor / 1.5495 moderate / 1.5552 minor
Support: 1.5321 moderate / 1.5232 moderate / 1.5148 moderate

At the close we have EURAUD at around the 23.6 Fib retracement level of our rally from November and the days lows. Note overall trend remains bullish though projected lows should be around our moderate support of 1.5232. Among indicators we have daily stochastic looking to push oversold while macd’s also see a bear cross. In intradat charts we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping while in the hourly scale we have stochastic oscillating around oversold areas suggesting a bear trend. Hourly macd’s for their part are below zero and the signal line. Given the big sell-off consider shorting at push below the 1.5321 S1 our objective 1.5232 projected lows and previous low as well.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3588 minor / 1.3632 moderate / 1.3658 minor
Support: 1.3545 minor / 1.3500 psychological / 1.3466 minor

Thursday saw steady sell-off in EURUSD taking us under the daily EMA’s for what could be a resumption of the overall bearish tone closing the day just around its lows. Note we now have Euro just above the floor for January’s consolidation. Daily indicators are seeing a new confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is crossing lower. From the lower time-frames we have stochastic in oversold areas for the 4H charts while macd is dropping though we need a catalyst for the next drop as momentum has faltered. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic trying to come off overbought levels while macd has a bullish crossover. For now remain sidelined waiting for a break of the 1.3545 area then a move down through S1 from pivots along with the months lows and psychological support at 1.3500/10.

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January 30th, 2014 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8758 moderate / 0.8792 moderate / 0.8822 moderate
Support: 0.8725 moderate / 0.8691 moderate / 0.8658 moderate

We have Aussy closing the trading day around its lows with market mostly congesting between the daily pivot and S1 following the sell-off in European trade. this appears to be a resumption of our pattern of lower highs and lows in the daily chart with us now looking for the latter. Daily indicators has a bullish divergence while stochastic is also trying a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic in oversold levels for 4H charts while macd also has a new bear cross back under the zero line. Hourly charts for the moment are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading lower. We prefer looking for shorts under 0.8725 either on a close below the said price in Asian trade or at a break during European open. Alternatively we can use a false breakout out of the daily pivot as a bearish entry.

EURJPY
Resistance: 139.99 moderate / 140.35 minor / 140.80 minor
Support: 139.47 minor / 139.22 moderate / 138.73 moderate

Wednesday saw a bear market for EURJPY with prices easing down to the 55DEMA resuming its bear trend after a two day reprieve. We currently have prices just under the daily pivot at 139.99 while indicators show stochastic crossing lower poised to push oversold and macd’s just easing through the zero line. Big picture charts appear to have a nice target at 138.43 the 50 Fib retracement from November’s rally and a congestion floor. In intraday charts we are currently seeing a mixed picture with 4H stochastic just around the oversold threshold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic seeing a bear cross and macd a bullish crossover. At this point we prefer remaining sidelined though keeping a bearish bias, look for European to potentially see some more volatility and an excuse for committing to the sell side.

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January 27th, 2014 @ 1:52 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1278.26 moderate / 1284.29 minor / 1291.96 moderate
Support: 1269.20 moderate / 1263.99 moderate / 1257.16 moderate

Gold saw further gains Friday, though modest compared to the big reversal the day prior. Already we have seen a quick attempt at taking out the 38.2 fib retracement level for our sell-off from August though the initial rush seems to be losing momentum. From indicators we have a confluence of buys with daily stochastic pushing back into overbought levels suggesting pressure to take out resistances whilemacd has just recently pushed back up above the zero line. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with a bullish macd in 4H charts while stochastic risks a bear cross. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic crossing down and macd’s with a bullish cross. For now we prefer looking for a consolidation just above the 1269.20 region with long tails an excuse to retest the 38.2 Fib, 1278.26 as long as we have the real body staying above 1269.20. The longer we take to rally the greater risk of a technical rejection from the 38.2 Fib level.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8241 moderate / 0.8277 minor / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8209 moderate / 0.8192 moderate / 0.8158 minor

Kiwi has already gapped lower at the open trying a follow through to Friday’s risk aversion driven sell-off. Note we appear to be shifting to the lower half of the consolidation from October of last year. Prices at the moment are just above the lows for the past two weeks and a bullish trend line from November 29. We have daily stochastic heading lower for the 20 threshold while macd’s look poised to crash under the zero-line. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making as 4h stochastic joins a bearish macd with its new bear cross. Hourly charts also has a new bearish crossover in macd and stochastic dropping. At this point we see little sense of urgency with theimmdiate objectively likely to be taking out the trend line. We prefer looking for shorts following long wicks in the hourly charts that sticks through the 0.8241 level.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8720 moderate / 0.8755(60) moderate / 0.8777 minor
Support: 0.8659 minor / 0.8632 moderate / 0.8573 moderate

Friday saw an early sell-off in Aussy pushing past the 0.8755 price point in Asian to close near its lows as markets turned-risk averse. Among indicators we now have stochastic reentering oversold levels while daily macd’s are also heading lower. Note we have prices under the daily pivots while our sell-off from Thursday may be seen as a rejection off bearish daily EMA lines. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making with hourly stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is getting started with a bear cross. In the 4H picture we have stochastic also in the process of crossing lower while macd is already dropping and below zero. Note however we have holiday in Australia suggesting we could have limited immediate interest in taking action. For now we do not have a sense of urgency though long wicks past the daily pivot at 0.8709 will be a good excuse for jumping short.

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January 24th, 2014 @ 1:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6666 moderate / 1.6697 minor / 1.6752 strong
Support: 1.6611 moderate / 1.6582 moderate / 1.6556 minor

Cable managed to surge past previous swing highs to close above the 1.6601 price point and just under the daily highs. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while the macds have also crossed highs. Given the daily close the past three days, price charts themselves suggests a build-up of momentum. Note we are at levels last sincein 2011. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic crawling above 80 while macd’s are also bullish. Hourly charts however has new sell signals in both macd and stochastic coming out of overbought areas. Immediate view appear to call for a technical correction perhaps to yesterdays breakout point at 1.6601. Look for base building around the said areas and daily pivot of 1.6611. Long tails and dragon fly doji’s would be our cue to rejoin the buy side.

USDCAD
Resistance: 1.1118 moderate / 1.1154 moderate / 1.1172 minor
Support: 1.1091 minor / 1.1064 moderate / 1.1018 minor

In the end USDCAD turned out to be a shooting star Thursday unable to hold to its gains despite several whipsaws in intraday charts. Daily indicators has stochastic trying to push back up into overbought levels while macd is also bullish. Note given the rally the past three weeks, the daily candlestick and this being Friday we may be looking at a possible start for mean reversions plays. Intraday we have a consolidation from 4H charts with stochastic heading lower and macds flat above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part are looking mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd continues to point lower. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the lack of impetus though bias will be for shorts and mean reversion, a break of Thursdays lows an aggressive entry . Should we remain just under the pivots at European open cosnider shorts with tight stops above the figure. 1.1118.

CADJPY
Resistance: 93.25 moderate / 93.62 minor / 94.16 minor
Support: 92.95 minor / 92.41 moderate / 92.23 strong

Thursday saw CADJPY selling off in line with the broadly firmer Japanese Yen to see us just days range from the key support level of 92.23 2013′s consolidation floor. Among indicators we have new dead crosses in daily EMA’s while stochastic is oversold and macd also bearish in both daily and the weekly charts. We appear to be set to make a run for the key support level. In 4H charts we have a piercing pattern with stochastic also coming off oversold areas and macd’s heading down. hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic in the process of coming off overbought areas, candlesticks indecisive though macd has a bullish crossover. Note we have Canadian CPI figures set for release at 1330GMT, consensus forecast underscoring deflationary pressure the core read expected at -0.4 and headline CPI seen coming at -0.2%. weak results will be an excuse to make a run for 92.23.

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