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Articles by Mark De La Paz

November 18th, 2013 @ 1:02 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3530 moderate / 1.3568 minor
Support: 1.3469 minor / 1.3446 minor / 1.3418 moderate

Despite managing to see a bullish engulfing at the close Friday, Euro failed to take out the 55D EMA putting prices immediately under a key resistance area the psychological 1.3500. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys stochastic having just pushed overbought Friday while macds see a new bullish though both signal and main line remain below zero. In 4H charts we have stochastic in the process of crossing lower while the macd main line is flaty above the signal even as we also seem to have a dark cloud cover forming in among the candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for a rejection from the daily EMA’s either a break of 1.3469 for an hourly double top or coming from just under the 55D EMA 1.3500.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6131 moderate / 1.6165 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6099 moderate / 1.6050 moderate / 1.6022 minor

Cable saw a follow through to a descending wedge breakout Friday with prices closing around their highs and well above the prior days high wave candle. Daily indicators show a confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing overbought and macd also pushing back above the zero line. For the moment we have prices just above the daily pivot though we are having trouble making a run for Friday highs. Note latest of the BoE suggests the possibility of an earlier tightening , excuse for making a run to the 1.6260 highs. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators with stochastic looking to reenter overbought areas and macd rising though price action suggests a possible ‘dark cloud cover’. Hourly charts has a new bear cross in macd and stochastic just coming off overbought levels. Immediate risks suggests a trigger of the hourly double top though we plan on going long off the 1.6050 region. Alternative entry a break of the 1.6131 immediate resistance.

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November 15th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3458 minor / 1.3497 moderate / 1.3530 moderate
Support: 1.3419 moderate / 1.3374 minor / 1.3327 moderate

Euro saw a hanging man at the end of the trading day with the 55D EMA preventing any follow through rally early on. Indicators show mixed signals from the daily chart though with stochastic faltering at the overbought threshold and macd’s heading lower while already beneath the zero line suggests we focus on the sell side. Note we have dead crosses in the daily EMA lines and prices below the central pivot. From the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in the 4H picture with stochastic heading lower and steady highs while macd’s are topping off. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s poised to drop below the zero line. Consider shorts from the 55D EMA line or just off the daily pivot if its already the European morning trade.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6080 minor / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6050 moderate / 1.6023 minor / 1.5994 moderate

Cable the past few weeks has formed a descending wedge, that calls for a bullish breakout though our attempt yesterdays turned out to be a high wave candle. Prices at this point remain above the daily EMA lines after barreling through Wednesday. Indicators show a confluence of buys with macd coming off zero with a bullish crossover while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Intraday we have mixed signals in the 4H charts with stochastic showing a divergence while macd is heading up. Hourly charts show more mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading down. Given the mixed intraday signals we prefer remaining sidelined despite calls for a follow through rally from the higher time frames. Looking to straddle at the open of European markets sell stops under 1.6050, buys on the congestion highs from Asian trade.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1288.52 minor / 1294.69 moderate / 1301.57 minor
Support: 1286.49 moderate / 1278.74 moderate / 1272.77 minor

Thursday saw Gold with a follow through rally to the piercing pattern as mean reversion continues. Daily indicators has stochastic well on its way up while macd is bottoming out. note we have prices just above the daily pivot at 1286.49. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are the opposite with stochastic pushing higher and macd’s flat below the signal line. For now given the lack of conviction and catalyst from the Asian session we will remain sideline though looking for a follow through rally to complete our mean reversion play for the 21D EMA. We will consider longs at the open of European markets.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.39(45) moderate / 100.84 moderate / 101.21 minor
Support: 99.76 moderate / 99.37 moderate / 99.09 minor

USDJPY saw a bullish engulfing for Thursday seeing new highs as equity markets rallied on Janet Yellen’s dovish stance in her confirmation hearings. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought and macd’s rising with prices fast approahcing R1 from pivots, 100.39. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in both hourly and 4H picture. Stochastic has just pushed overbought in both time frames while macd’s are seeing new bullish crosses. Note we are also getting reports of overwhelming support of Abenomics seemingly driving Yen bears. Consider a buy on dips to the 99.76 region, the daily pivot though any base building around 100.00 over the course of the day will be a welcome bullish entry.

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November 14th, 2013 @ 1:21 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8300 moderate / 0.8319 minor / 0.8348 moderate
Support: 0.8268 minor / 0.8245 moderate / 0.8211 moderate

Kiwi managed to push back up above the previous key support at 0.8228, 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30 lows, prices are now just below the 21D EMA at 0.8300. We have a bullish engulfing from the daily candlesticks, indicators show stochastic off oversold levels and macd’s bottoming out. Strangely enough earlier figures were actually disappointing for New Zealand as Retail Sales turned out at 0.3% against a 0.9% consensus and Core Retail Sales contracted -0.1% against the 1.4% consensus forecast. From indicators we are seeing bullish signals the 4h stochastic overbought while macd is looking to push backup above the zero line. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s rising. We are currently seeing an attempt to rally up basically keeping our range play from 0.8228 to 0.8500 intact.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6066 moderate / 1.6091 minor / 1.6115 moderate
Support: 1.6034 minor / 1.6000 moderate / 1.5963 moderate

Cable saw a sharp rally Wednesday for a bullish engulfing that has taken prices all the way through the daily EMA lines after closing well below them Tuesday. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up while macd is bottoming out nearing a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with 4H stochastic pushing overbought while macd is heading backup for the zero line. Note bullish momentum appears to be waning as we move higher the latest candle at risk of forming a spinning top. From the hourly picture we have mixed signals with stochastic showing a bearish divergence while macd is heading up. Note by this time impact of good jobs numbers and speculations over BoE intent should be fully priced in. For now we prefer remaning sidelined looking for shorts on a push below 1.6034 at the open of European markets.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3505 moderate / 1.3547 minor / 1.3588 minor
Support: 1.3479 minor / 1.3452 moderate / 1.3412 moderate

Wednesday saw a follow through rally in Euro taking prices up to the 55D EMA line. Indicators continue to show mixed signals for the big picture with stochastic looking poised for a run through the 55D EMA and macd trying bottoming out. From the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing back into overbought levels from the 4H picture while macd has just pushed through the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Note hourly charts show long wicks for the past three hours suggesting a possible pullback consider shorts at the break of 1.3480. Consider shorts at the break of 1.3479.

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November 13th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3460 strong / 1.3498 minor / 1.3534 moderate
Support: 1.3418 minor / 1.3374 minor / 1.3326 moderate

Euro saw a follow through to Friday’s piercing pattern eventually seeing a bullish close to just under key resistances despite a poor start in the European open. Daily indicators see mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s dropping while EMA lines are also looking bearish. Intraday we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s crossing lower. For the moment we are well resisted with little conviction either way. Consider buys on a close above 1.3460 or a drop below 1.3418.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1271.49 minor / 1276.31 minor / 1283.93 moderate
Support: 1265.22 minor / 1260.86 moderate / 1251.33 moderate

After Fridays consolidation Gold started the week with a big sell-off as markets once again talk of taper for December putting prices within striking distance of the previous swing lows, key support at 1251.33. Indicator wise we have stochastic crawling oversold for some time now while macd is also bearish in the daily picture. Note this all appears to be a continuation of a bearish engulfing in the weekly charts from two candles back. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to reenter oversold areas while macd is opening lower after being flat with its signal line. Hourly charts are mixed with a double bottom in the candlesticks and stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is below the signal and the zero threshold. Given the bearish big picture we prefer looking for shorts through from better prices. Allow for a technical correction and consider shorts from just under the pivot, 1271.49 at the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5893 minor / 1.5918 moderate / 1.5957 minor
Support: 1.5851 moderate / 1.5828 minor / 1.5775 moderate

Monday saw Cable with a big sell-off after inflation metrics turned out much weaker than consensus forecast seeing GBPUSD push through the key 1.5918 congestion floor, 23.6 Fib retracement level of the rally from the 9th of July. We now have daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd line is already below the zero threshold dragging its signal line down with i, to suggest a bear trend. Daily EMA lines are also at risk of seeing dead crosses. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making with Hourly stochastic looking to push oversold and macd’s for a bear cross. From the 4H picture we have stochastic looking for a bear cross inline with the bearish macd. For now we are bearish at market with a stop and reverse incase of an hourly close back above 1.5918. Else we will look for a further sell-off down to the 1.5775 area.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9316 moderate / 0.9343 minor / 0.9367 minor
Support: 0.9280 strong / 0.9265 minor / 0.9221 moderate

Aussy saw a bear candle at the close after spending much of the day in a range play. We now find ourselves just above the key support at 0.9280. Daily indicators see a confluence of bears with macd’s already under the zero line heading lower while stochastic is pushing further into oversold areas. The daily EMA lines are poised to see dead crosses. From the lower time frames we have a bearish bias though for the moment 4H stochastic has come off oversold levels, macd however is still bearish. Hourcharts for their part are mixed with stochastic looking to cross lower and macd heading up. Note we have quarterly Wage Price Index coming out at 0030GMT, a poor read would be an excuse to take out the 0.9280 support. Consider a straddle ahead of the data.

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November 8th, 2013 @ 1:29 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3420 minor / 1.3460 strong / 1.3498 minor
Support: 1.3380 minor / 1.3327 moderate / 1.3293 moderate

With US equities selling off EURUSD managed to see a sharp bounce after the surprise rate cut by the ECB with saw us pushing under and closing below the key 1.3460 support area. From indicators we continue to see mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s heading lower this as prices continue to drop further beneath the daily EMA’s. Note given the changing policy environment for the Eurozone we are looking for sustained weakness. In the lower time we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing higher and macd’s seeing new bear crosses. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold and macd cross up. With US NFP numbers coming out later the preferred course of action is to remain sidelined though we retain a bearish bias considering the big picture breakout and daily close below 1.3460.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9473 moderate / 0.9507 minor / 0.9538 moderate
Support: 0.9425 moderate / 0.9389 moderate / 0.9367 minor

Aussy sold off following better than expected US Advance GDP that saw the greenback firmer across the board. We now have prices just above the 55D EMA while indicators from multiple time frames suggests down side risk. Daily stochastic has just crossed lower with yesterdays drop while macd has bearish and is looking to push below zero. From the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling oversold while macd is also dropping. Hourly charts for their part we have macd’s down and stochastic knocking at the oversold threshold. At this point we have AUDUSD looking for its own seminal bearish breakout with a push under the 55D EMA likely opening the possibility of a sell-off to the key support at 0.9287. Consider shorts on a break of 0.9425, 55D EMA, or coming from the daily pivot at 0.9473.

EURGBP
Resistance: 0.8349 moderate / 0.8383 moderate / 0.8411 minor
Support: 0.8303 minor / 0.8288 moderate / 0.8223 moderate

We did not get a divergent policy environment from yesterdays Central Bank meetings as the BoE failed to mentioned any hint of removing the APF or raising rates. The ECB however surprise with a 25bps cut and we are now looking for the BoE’s minutes for clues on future policy. Technically we have daily indicators calling for a bear market as stochastic stay oversold and macd eased further under the zero line. These while daily EMA’s see dead crosses. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic actually seeing a bullish crossover while macd has just crossed lower. Hourly charts are the opposite with stochastic oversold and macd’s crossing up. For the moment we see little sense of urgency though bias is for the sell-side. Consider shorts coming off the current levels 0.8349 at the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6072 moderate / 1.6042 minor / 1.6008 moderate

After a knee-jerk sell-off on strong US Advanced GDP we have Cable recouping earlier losses in the middle of New York trade to close back above the daily EMA lines looking poised to continue our wide range play form 1.5918 to 1.6260 among the daily candlesticks. Indicators show daily stochastic pushing overbought while macd is also poised to cross higher. In the lower time frames we have bullish bias as 4H stochastic looks to push overbought and macd attempt to cross up. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish confluence with a new crossover in stochastic and macd’s heading up. Consider buys on a push above 1.6114 or a bounce off 1.6072. Note we are still looking for the 1.6260 region as our main target.

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November 7th, 2013 @ 1:47 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9537 moderate / 0.9570 minor / 0.9588 minor
Support: 0.9517 moderate / 0.9486 minor / 0.9441 moderate

Aussy has seen a bullish spinning top with highs testing the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off the past three weeks. Daily indicators are seeing mixed signals with stochastic looking to push overbought and macd’s heading lower. Note we have seen a push back above the daily EMA yesterdays and prices at the moment are just above the daily pivot. That said we are looking at Australian jobs numbers with the Unemployment Rate seen coming in at 5.7% while Employment change is expected to 10,700. Intraday we are seeing a a bearish bias with a confluence of bears from hourly indicators with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is heading to the zeroline. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic heading lower while macd has just pushed above the zero line. Look at using a straddle for the entry with poor numbers a convenient excuse to just hold on to shorts on a bearish breakout.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6096 minor / 1.6115 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6066 moderate / 1.6033 minor / 1.6000 psychological

Cable saw a follow through rally yesterday pushing past the daily EMA lines as we appear poised to continue the range play we’ve had from September with a floor at 1.5918 and key resistances at 1.6260. Indicators show mixed signals with daily stochastic poised t -push overbought while macd is flat below the signal line and just above the zero. In the lower time-frames we have a cup and handle in 4H charts stochastic is heading lower while macd is rising and the candles have signaled indecision. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s dropping. Immediate calls for a pullback, a push under 1.6066 may be viewed as a bearish entry. That said we have a BoE meeting and interest rate announcement, an optimistic sounding BoE is likely considering the data we’ve seen of late. We prefer remaining sidelined until today’s central bank meetings are over.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.48 minor / 133.71 moderate / 133.91 moderate
Support: 133.19 moderate / 132.86 moderate / 132.58 minor

EURJPY managed to rally past the daily EMA’s seeing highs at our double top trigger from last week, 131.72 indicators are showing a mixed view. We have daily stochastic crossing up following our bullish close coming off the oversold areas. The macd indicator remains bearish in the daily scale. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd heading down. We appear to have little conviction in EURJPY with few external catalyst, that said we are looking for a bear market once more, part rejection from the previous daily double top trigger part rejection off the 38.2 Fib retracement this as we see further consolidation after last weeks sell-off. Consider shorts at the break of 133.19 the daily pivot.

GBPAUD
Resistance: 1.6986 moderate / 1.7033 moderate / 1.7079 moderate
Support: 1.6938 moderate / 1.6901 minor / 1.6865 moderate

Following a poor reading in Australian jobs data we have GBPAUD rallying the previous hour almost seeing the average daily range. Among indicators we have macd’s heading up looking to push up above the zero-line while daily stochastic is also heading. We face a key resistance at 1.6986 break of which open us to a rally. Note we have almost seen average daily range but an optimistic or even hawkish BoE later on could see us push and extend beyond the daily averages. In the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought in the hourly charts and crossing up in the 4H scale. The macd indicators has crossed higher in hourly charts and is rising in the 4H scale. given the extent of earlier action for now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for the BoE to move the market.

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November 6th, 2013 @ 1:36 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9511 minor / 0.9527 moderate / 0.9549 moderate
Support: 0.9481 moderate / 0.9461 minor / 0.9441 moderate

Despite the daily fractal, attempts at a bullish reversal and getting out of the daily EMA lines failed with Tuesday seeing a high wave doji, an indecision candle. Daily indicators continue to see mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Note we have prices just around the 21D EMA, below the daily pivot and Trade figures at 0030GMT, consensus forecast calling for a reduction in the deficit to about 510 million. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower while macd is heading up. Hourly charts look the same with stochastic seeing a new bear cross and macd in the process of crossing higher. Given the data we prefer remaining sideline a trade surplus could see us pushing past yesterdays highs for the moderate resistance at 0.9549. A worse than expected figure may see us easing back down to the 55D EMA.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3481 moderate / 1.3520 minor / 1.3568 moderate
Support: 1.3458 strong / 1.3420 moderate / 1.3386 moderate

Tuesday saw Euro easing off once more to close just above the key support at 1.3458. Daily indicators continue to see a confluence of bears with stochastic crawling oversold and macd’s heading lower, prices are under the daily EMA lines. In the lower time-frames we have indecisive price action with spinning tops and doji’s in the 4H and hourly candlesticks. Indicators show a confluence of buys in the 4H scale though macd is barely above the signal and stochastic has just crossed up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd seeing a new bullish cross. Note we Services PMI figures for the Eurozone today and Retail Sales numbers, a combination of poor reads will reinforced the idea of possible monetary action. Consider trades on a push under 1.3458, a daily close below the said prices opens up 1.3100.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1312.88 moderate / 1316.75 moderate / 1321.58 moderate
Support: 1305.10 moderate / 1300.00 psychological / 1291.37 moderate

Gold saw mixed market Tuesday ending down with a bearish spinning top for the daily candles. Indicators show a confluence of bears with daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels and macd looking to push under the zero line. From the 4H picture we have a bear cross in stochastic with macd’s flat just above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macds with a bullish crossover. Given the picture intraday we prefer remaining sidelined in Gold though shorts may be taken coming off the 21D EMA around 1321.00 or on a break of the 1305 region.

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November 4th, 2013 @ 2:11 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9476 moderate / 0.9590 minor / 0.9526 moderate
Support: 0.9441 moderate / 0.9414 moderate / 0.9385 moderate

Aussy closed lower Friday though off the weeks trough, market however opened with a bullish gap ahead of expectations of a steady decision by the RBA in tomorrows rate announcement. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Intraday our bullish gap from the open has seen indicators higher. In the 4H scale we have stochastic and macd’s both in the process of crossing up with both also seeing bullish divergences. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s crossing higher. Note we also have Australian numbers coming out at 0030GMT with Retail Sales, Job Advertisements and House Price Index as potential catalyst for further gains should the figures turnout firmly. Consider buys on a strong read for 0.9526. Poor numbers risks us covering the gap from our open.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.2454 minor / 1.4310 minor / 1.4334 minor
Support: 1.4225 moderate / 1.4179 moderate / 1.4125 strong

EURAUD saw a bearish gap at the open of Welling ton markets following through the sell-off from late last week. Note both Euro and Aussy are weaker against the greenback though the former appears to be taking the brunt against the majors. We have just seen strong Retail Sales numbers, an excuse for a follow through bear market. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is poised to cross lower and already under the zero line. In the 4H level we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part also has stochastic in oversold levels and macd’s with a new bear cross. Given the earlier response to Aussy data and over all trends we are looking forward for the next downleg a push under 1.4213 may be seen as a bearish entry for 1.4160 projected low and 1.4125 the key support levels.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.42 moderate / 133.63(69) moderate / 134.02 minor
Support: 133.12 moderate / 132.58 moderate / 132.17 moderate

As with many Euro pairs we saw a weekly engulfing candle in EURJPY while also triggering a double top for the price action in the previous two weeks. This in-turn forming the second top of an even bigger double top. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also heading lower. From the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s bottoming. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing up with macd also poised to push up through the zero line. Look for a scaled entry from 133.42 and 133.69 our objective to complete the bigger double top with triggers at 131.51.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3538 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3603 minor
Support: 1.3495 minor / 1.3460 strong / 1.3420 moderate

The past week saw a big sell-off for the Euro with the weekly candle a bearish engulfing that covered to bullish weekly candles before it. With recent data showing signs of a pick up in the unemployment rate and weak inflation numbers markets are speculating for another liquidity injection by Mario Draghi. From the charts we have stochastic in oversold levels while daily macd is looking to push under the zero line though we face a key support at the 1.3460 area. In the 4H level we have stochastic crawling oversold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd just crossing up as prices come out of a tight congestion with a double bottom from 1.3495. Despite this we prefer looking for a push below 1.3460 as a signal for further weakness. Alternatively consider shorts off 1.3568.

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