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Articles by Mark De La Paz

October 4th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6183 moderate / 1.6214 moderate / 1.6240 minor
Support: 1.6153 minor / 1.6126 moderate / 1.6095 minor

In the end daily candlesticks in Cable show more argument for a sharp pull back with Tuesday’s ‘gravestone doji’ now joined by a ‘bearish engulfing’ of the failed attempt at a new high Wednesday. Daily indicators now has a confluence of bears with stochastic showing a new bearish crossover and the macd’s clearly off overbought areas. we could be seeing the start of a mean reversion play. In 4H charts we have stochastic already oversold and macds looking to push under the zero line. Note we have triggered a double top from the 4H picture. In hourly charts we have stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at risk of a bullish crossover. For now look for a push through the New York congestion floor at 1.6153 to trigger a follow through sell off, pattern target for the double top is at 1.6050.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 157.37 moderate / 157.56 moderate / 157.81 minor
Support: 156.77 moderate / 156.28 moderate / 155.90 minor

GBPJPY triggered a multiple top in the daily charts Thursday dragging prices down into the daily EMA lines while indicators now show stochastic in oversold levels as macd’s continue to head down to the zeroline. Note our pattern target calls for a sell-off to 154.67. From the lower time frames we have 4H indicators showing macd’s below the zeroline and dropping further while stochastic is oversold though at risk of taking a peak above the 20 threshold. hourly charts for their part still has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s below the signal and under zero. For now look for a push below the 34DEMA at 156.77 to trigger a further sell-off our objective the 55D EMA at 155.61 possibly on to the pattern target in the coming week.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9734 moderate / 0.9457 minor / 0.9486 minor
Support: 0.9393 moderate / 0.9372 moderate / 0.9354 minor

Thursday saw Aussy with a tighter range though still a bullish candle keeping the idea of a push to the psychological 0.9500 going as we continue our bounce off the 38.2 Fib retracement for the September rally. Among indicators we have stochastic poised to push overbought while macd is also looking for a bullish crossover. note this is also a bounce off the daily EMA lines. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys as stochastic in both 4H and hourly charts are moving for the overbought areas even as we see new bullish crossovers out of the macd indicator. For now we are looking for a push through the weeks highs at 0.9434 for a surge to the 0.9500 area.

USDJPY
Resistance: 97.30 moderate / 97.51 minor / 97.77 moderate
Support: 96.86 moderate / 96.38 minor / 95.92 moderate

In the end all the whipsaw in USDJPY intraday charts turned out to be a daily high wave spinning top suggesting a loss of bearish momentum even as indicators continue to argue the sell side. We have prices under bearish daily EMA lines with dead crosses from earlier in the week while stochastic has pushed oversold and macd’s are dropping. In intraday charts we are also seeing mixed signals as stochastic is poised to push higher failing to see oversold areas while macd see a bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has sell signals stochastic looking to push oversold. Given the high wave spinning top the preferred course of action is to remain sidelined as we risk a technical correction with the end of the week. A close below 96.83 however should see us with follow through weakness while a close above 97.30 could see a technical correction with the weekend.

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October 3rd, 2013 @ 1:51 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9375 minor / 0.9392 minor / 0.9410 minor
Support: 0.9342 moderate / 0.9333 minor/ 0.9312 moderate

After an earlier sell-off Aussy managed to build a base off the 0.9338 area for a bounce in New York to close with along tail in daily candles. This reinforces the notion of bouncing off the 21D EMA though indicators remain mixed as we have yet to see macd’s turn up though daily stochastic is bullish. Given that we came off a bounce from the 38.2 Fib retracement of the September rally the long tail should underscore the presence of bulls. From the 4h picture we have yet to see macd’s crossing up though we are poised to do so while stochastic is looking to push through the 80 level, we risk forming an evening star at the close. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading down while macd is above the signal line. Look for buys off S1 at 0.9342 or on a close above 0.9375.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.50 minor / 132.77 moderate / 133.05 minor
Support: 132.09 moderate / 131.61 moderate / 131.41 minor

In the end EURJPY bounced off its European morning trade congestion floor to close with along tailfor the daily charts, a possible bullish reversal hammer. That said we are still within the daily EMA’s with little catalyst for risk taking. From indicators we have daily stochastic poised to cross lower while macd is heading for the zero line. In the lower time frames we are seeing buy signals despite the lack of momentum from price action, 4H stochastic is looking to push overbought while macd has anew bullish cross. In the hourly charts we are seeing a similarly bullish setup with stochastic heading up and macd looking to push through the zero line. For now we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for a close under 132.09 to signal a resumption of the risk averse tone from the broader market.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3606 minor / 1.3629 moderate / 1.3669 minor
Support: 1.3567 moderate / 1.3539 minor / 1.3512 moderate

Wednesday saw Euro pushing through two week long congestion resistances to close with a bullish breakout suggesting we make run for the previous swing highs at 1.3710. Daily indicators has stochastic looking up while macd’s see a new bullish crossover. Note given our congestion the past two weeks daily EMA’s have caught up with prices reducing the risk of mean reversion. Intraday we have a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s up in the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s with a bearish crossover and stochastic heading up. Given the flag in our hourly charts we prefer looking for an eventual bullish break out.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1321.50 moderate / 1333.10 moderate / 1337.62 minor
Support: 1312.38 minor / 1305.55 moderate / 1293.45 minor

Gold rallied as markets reasses the US government shutdown and the private sector reports its work disruptions. Daily indicators now has a mixed view as stochastic is in the process of crossing higher while macd is bearish. Note we appear to have kept the pattern of lower highs and lower lows from September. In the lower time frames we are seeing more mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought areas and macd show a bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking to push oversold while macd has a new bear cross in the making. Immeidate riskfor gold is to test the daily pivot at 1305.55. We look forward to seeing price action suggest we are ready to bounce off these levels.

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October 2nd, 2013 @ 1:44 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3536 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3587 minor
Support: 1.3496 moderate / 1.3461 moderate / 1.3445 moderate

Euro saw a false breakout of its range play for the past two weeks at the open of European markets. In the end we pushed back under 1.3568 with a ‘gravestone doji’ for a daily candle. Among indicators we are seeing a confluence of bears with stochastic flat below the signal line and macd’s the same flat just under the signal line suggesting bias is for the sell side. In the 4H levels we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd also has a new bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s just dropping through the zero line. For now we are looking to ease to the congestion floor at 1.3461 though projected lows suggests a possible bearish break, the number at 1.3455. Consider shorts on a break of S1 in pivots at 1.3496 or coming off the congestion resistance in New York pm trade.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6202moderate / 1.6226 minor / 1.6260 moderate
support: 1.6162 moderate / 1.6131 moderate / 1.6095 minor

After the early surged as the US government teetered into a shutdown Cable eventually eased off as for a ‘shooting star’in the daily candlesticks suggesting risk of a pullback. Note yesterdays numbers showed UK CIPS Manufacturing PMI at 56.7 short of the 57.5 consensus and previous read. From indicators we have daily stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd’s are at risk of a bear cross after flattening out despite recent gains in prices. In the lower time frames we are seeing sell signals with 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd has crossed lower, hourly charts also has stochastic oversold and macd looking to push under the zero line. With the push through yesterdays lows we already have an ongoing mean reversion play the next entry a break of the 1.6162 support, S1 from daily pivots. Projected lows puts us with 1.6106 just above the minor support at 1.6095 though the 21D EMA is all the way down to the psychological 1.6000 area.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9410 minor / 0.9455 moderate / 0.9500 psychological
Support: 0.9371 moderate / 0.9354 minor / 0.9308 moderate

Following the RBA’s omission of any reference on potential easing in its statement we had Aussy rallying strongly Tuesday seeing twice the average daily range. From our charts we have a bounce of the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the September rally and the daily EMA lines. Indicators still show mixed directions though bias is for the up side as stochastic comes out of oversold levels while daily macd has bottomed out looking to cross backup following a bubble. In intraday charts we have stochastic coming off overbought levels from the 4H picture while macd is rising and we have candlesticks consolidating just above the 38.2 Fib retracement level for yesterdays rally. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. For now we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the daily pivot at 0.9371 though a push through 0.9410 could also be seen as a bullish entry.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.74 moderate / 133.17 moderate / 133.48 minor
Support: 132.31 minor / 132.01 moderate / 131.64 moderate

Tuesday saw EURJPY ease off to close under the lower half of the preceding candlesticks real body, our move taking prices back inside the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators are mixed with a bearish macd and stochastic heading up. Note we are in a counter trend for the daily higher highs and higher lows from August. in the lower time frames we have a bearish view with 4H stochastic in oversold levels and macd crossing lower below zero while price action shows long wicks in 4H charts or bearish engulfing real bodies. Hourly charts has a new confluence of bears with stochastic just crossing lower. For now we prefer looking for shorts on a break of 132.33 our minor support. Alternative entry will becoming off the 132.74 daily central pivot.

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October 1st, 2013 @ 1:52 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1331.50 moderate / 1337.70 moderate / 1344.24 minor
Support: 1324.69 minor / 1319.15 moderate / 1313.36 minor

After an earlier attempt to rally past the daily EMA lines Gold appears to have given us a lower high failing to stay above the daily EMA’s in the Wellington breakout seeing a follow through drop for the rest of Monday’s trade. From indicators we have a bearish bias to support the EMA rejection with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s under the zero line though marginally flat above its signal. From the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping and the hourly charts showing the same configuration. Despite the mixed signals our preference is to look for a rejection from the resistance in line with the lower highs from the daily charts. Consider shorts on shooting stars with long wicks above the daily pivot at 1331.50 or coming off 1337.70.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6216 moderate / 1.6239 minor / 1.6308 moderate
Support: 1.6172 moderate / 1.6131 moderate / 1.6095 minor

After spending much of the day in a range play, Cable pretty much established the days range on a bullish breakout early in New York trading. Daily indicators shows a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas and macd’s crossing backup after staying flat below its signal. Daily EMA’s have consistently been bullish with nearly steady gaps between the different lines. Note we are expecting UK data again, with Manufacturing PMI set for release underscoring the trend of market beating results from the UK. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in the 4H picture stochastic looking to push overbought while macd is rallying. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. For now we prefer looking for continued base building just above the daily pivot though for an entry we will be straddling any tight congestion by the time European markets open.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9338 moderate / 0.9354 minor / 0.9375 moderate
Support: 0.9312 moderate / 0.9285 moderate / 0.9264 minor

Aussy managed to close its bearish gap from yesterdays open and saw a follow through rally for the play the daily pivot. In the end we pulled back in New York midday trade for along wick but we also have a decently sized real body. Among indicators we are mixed as daily stochastic has just come out of oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Note we are coming off the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the September rally and the daily EMA lines while the previous inverted SHS pattern remains valid for a target of 0.9590. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals from macd and stochastic in both the hourly and 4H picture. From the calendar we have had more bullish numbers as manufacturing for Australia swings back into expansion while we face retail sales numbers and a rate decision from the RBA. For now we prefer looking for follow through gains off the Fib bounce use a push through 0.9338 as a bullish entry.

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September 30th, 2013 @ 1:57 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 97.90 moderate / 98.18 minor / 98.44 moderate
Support: 97.55 moderate / 97.30 minor / 96.86 moderate

After a bearish engulfing candle Friday we have USDJPY gapping lower at the open for the week helped by seasonal cycles and equity weakness. Daily indicators now show a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold and macds easing through the zeroline. From the price chart we also see dead crosses forming among the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we are also seeing sell signals in both hourly and 4h charts with stochastic oversold for both time frames and macd’s dropping while under the zero threshold to underscore a bear trend. We prefer looking for further weakness with early losses in equity charts likely to convince us to sell from under 98.44 the daily pivot.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6178 strong / 1.6226 moderate / 1.6300 moderate
Support: 1.6131 minor / 1.6104 moderate / 1.6062 moderate

Cable saw a strong close Friday pushing us further to the 1.6300 objective congestion resistances from the same period last year. At the open we have seen a quick rally up though having trouble with the 1.6178 resistance area, previous weekly highs. Indicator wise we havea confluence of buys with stochastic pushing further into overbought areas while macd is also opening up. In the lower timeframes we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with stochastic overbought and macd’s on the rise. Hourly charts for their part also has stochastic oscillating around 80 and macd heading up. Note price action actually suggests a loss of momentum which means that in combination with a strong resistance, our more immediate risk is for a rejection. Look for shorts from under the 1.6178 region for a limited pullback to 1.6131.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.35 minor / 132.64 moderate / 132.96 minor
Support: 131.87 moderate / 131.62 minor / 131.00 moderate

With seasonal cycles and a bearish equity market we saw EURJPY selling off Friday closing just above the weekly lows then and opening the new week with a sharp bearish gap. We now find EURJPY inside the daily EMA lines with stochastic pushing further into oversold levels and macd also opening up with its signal line heading down to the zero threshold. Intraday we have a confluence of bears with both 4H and hourly stochastic pushing well into oversold levels while their macd lines are also heading lower beneath the zero threshold. Given the almost daily range for our bearish gap we find it difficult to look for a follow through sell-off. The longer that we stay just above 131.85 and build a base intraday the more that we will look at closing the gap later in the day.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9338 moderate / 0.9370 minor / 0.9402 moderate
Support: 0.9285 moderate / 0.9258 moderate / 0.9226 moderate

Aussy continued to drop Friday pulling us back to the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the rally in September and around the 21DEMA, currently 0.9301. Daily indicators show a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping though given the support our preference would be to look for a bounce. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oscillating around 20 and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts also see a confluence of bears with stochastic in oversold areas and macds just crossing down. Given the overwhelming bearish tone from multiple timeframes and good support we suggest looking for base building before going long confirming the recovery in Chinese manufacturing data at 0130GMT.

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September 26th, 2013 @ 1:48 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3537 moderate / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3595 moderate
Support: 1.3512 minor / 1.3494 minor / 1.3473 moderate

Seeing steady gains EURUSD managed to see a big bounce off the 23.6 Fib retarcement level for the September rally with price action holding much of its gains. It appears worries about the US budget and debt ceiling is once again weighing on the greenback. Indicators show daily stochastic continue to ease off while macd’s are heading up. In the 4H level we are seeing confused signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd crossing up while candlesticks has a 3-white soldiers pattern. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s seeing a bear cross. For now we prefer remaining sidelined perhaps looking for a rejection from the swing highs at 1.3568.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.09 moderate / 133.50(54) moderate / 133.92 minor
Support: 132.68 moderate / 132.35 minor / 131.85 moderate

Wednesday saw EURJPY with a high wave candle just above the daily EMA lines and a bullish channel support, this after a sharp sell-off in the first half of the week. Among indicators we are seeing a bearish view from daily stochastic and macd’s the latter with a new bear cross and the former now pushing for oversold areas. Note however that we do have bullish EMA lines with prices just above the 21D EMA. In intraday charts we have mixed signals from the hourly levelas stochastic tries to get out of oversold levels while macd is heading lower crossing back under the zeroline. From the 4h level we have a confluence of bears as stochastic see a new bear cross while macd is under zero and the signal-line though flat. Immediate risk calls for a test of 132.68 our weekly lows requiring a close beneath it for further losses. Otherwise base building around the said price may see us look for buys in European trade.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 158.35 minor / 158.90 moderate / 159.17 moderate
Support: 157.87 minor / 157.37(45) moderate / 156.99 minor

After all the whipsaw we have a high wave spinning top in GBPJPY as opposing pressures buffeted the pair, half year cycles suggesting a stronger yen while Europe saw risk appetite. From indicators we have a confluence of bears stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is also heading lower to the zero line. For the moment we have prices below the pivot after opening the day above it suggesting some bearish risk perhaps similar to yesterday’s Asian weakness. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower even as macd’s cross up. Hourly charts are bearish with macds heading down to zero and stochastic stuck in oversold levels. Immediate risk calls for weakness a retest of yesterdays lows possibly the 21DEMA though we have data coming out of the UK that could potentially lead to a bounce as such we expect limited duration for the bearish tone.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6087 minor / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6162 moderate
Support: 1.6062 minor / 16026 moderate / 1.6000 psychological

Cable saw a follow through to Tuesday’s recovery seeing a huge rally yesterday with the daily candle turning into a bullish engulfing. We could argue a bounce-off 23.6 Fib retracement for the three week rally with mean reversion at an end. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic heading back to overbought levels while levels while macd is right above its signal line. From the 4h picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts for their part are bearish with stochastic heading down and a new bearish crossover in macd’s. Note calendars show the UK Final GDP figures up for release at 830GMT with consensus forecast at 0.7%. Considering the strength in previous UK numbers we have an upside risk for the figure which would match our bullish technical scenario. Consider a buy on new highs particularly during market open our objective at 1.6162 swing highs.

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September 25th, 2013 @ 1:52 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 133.23 moderate / 133.54 minor / 133.77 moderate
Support: 132.92 minor / 132.47(57)moderate / 131.85 moderate

After several whipsaws EURJPY in the end saw a modest black body getting a follow through drop to our mean reversion as equity markets eventually retreated on concerns over the US budget. From indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd also has a bear cross. Note we are currently well within striking distance of the mean reversion objective 21D EMA at 132.57. In the lower time frames we continue to see a bearish bias with macd’s pushing under the zero line and stochastic also looking to ease back under 20%. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s flat above the signal while stochastic has come out of oversold levels. Given the proximity to the daily EMA lines the preferred course of action will be shorts coming off the daily central pivot.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8266 minor / 0.8297 minor / 0.8345 moderate
Support: 0.8247 moderate / 0.8204 minor / 0.8162 moderate

Kiwi saw a sharp sell-off Tuesday getting mean reversion going, after daily bearish fractal patterns from the previous week. Daily indicators now has macd’s poised at a bear cross while stochastic has senits bearish divergence turn into a big sell-off the indicators looking poised to push into oversold levels. Intraday we are seeing more sell signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower beneath the oversold threshold while macd has also dropped under the zero line. Hourly charts has macd’s crossing lower while stochastic is also poised to ease to oversold levels. For now we are looking for a close beneath 0.8247 to signal the next down leg, our objective the 21D EMA, incidentally also around 38.2 Fib retarcement of the previous three week rally, 0.8162.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1328.04 minor / 1334.49 moderate / 1339.76 minor
Support: 1320.05 moderate / 1313.34 minor / 1306.91 moderate

Gold saw a turnaround in European midday trade as the earlier sell-off was reversed for a hammer in the daily charts and a very long tail. Daily indicators however continue to look bearish with stochastics heading lower and macds beneath zero and the signal line. Note we have EMA’s with dead crosses suggesting overall trend remains bearish. In the 4H picture we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought following an earlier bullish divergence while macd’s are also seeing a new bullish crossover. Hourly charts has macd’s rising while stochastic is looking to push back into overbought areas. For the moment we are looking for a push past 1328.04 as our trigger for a rally backup to the daily EMA lines.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9412 minor / 0.9438 moderate / 0.9459 minor
Support: 0.9373 moderate / 0.9338 moderate / 0.9304 minor

Aussy saw a false bearish breakout of its descending triangle suggesting a good support at the 0.9373 region with double bottoms now forming in both hourly and 4H scale. From indicators we have a confluence of bears with macds seeing a new bear cross and stochastic heading for oversold areas. Note however that we are nearing the tip of our descending triangle which makes any bearish breakout suspect and at risk of a quick turnaround. In the 4H picture we have mixed signals with macd’s dropping while stochastic is flat at risk of a bear cross should we find little momentum to kick things up. For now we prefer looking for buys triggering the hourly double bottom and making a run for the 4H trigger as well just under the projected highs of 0.9461.

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September 24th, 2013 @ 2:00 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 133.37 moderate / 133.57 moderate / 134.06 moderate
Support: 132.77 moderate / 132.54 moderate / 131.85 moderate

EURJPY saw big sell-off Monday as he equity market relief from last weeks no taper decision begin to erode as the Fed states that it remain on track with its reduction of monetary stimulus. At this point we now have prices nearing a mean reversion objective the 21DEMA’s with stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd’s are poised at a bear cross. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold levels for both hourly and 4H charts while the latter also has a bearish view looking to ease below zero though hourly macd has actually crossed up though under he zero line. For now we prefer looking for shorts off 133.37 continuing the mean reversion play to 132.54.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8351 moderate / 0.8390 minor / 0.8435 moderate
Support: 0.8322 minor / 0.8298 minor / 0.8247 moderate

Kiwi is currently breaking lower possibly defining a medium term top after Friday’s fractal pattern and Mondays indecision. Note we appear to have triggered mean reversion with the current bearish breakout with a big gap between prices and EMA lines, and indicators now showing a bearish divergence in daily stochastic and topping off in macd’s. From the lower time frames we are seeing signs of a build up of bearish views as both 4H and hourly indicators show a confluence of bears even as price action shows an increase in the size of the bearish real body. For now look for shorts from under 0.8351 our moderate resistance a former congestion floor. Projected lows calls for merely an 0.8281 target though given the penchant of sudden extreme movement in Kiwi we look forward to seeing 0.8247 the previous bullish breakout point.

Gold
Resistance: 1330.05 moderate / 1339.76 minor / 1348.00 moderate
Support: 1320.47 minor / 1313.36 minor / 1306.91 moderate

Monday saw a hammer at the close in Gold this as attempts at a follow through to Friday’s sell-off could not stay near the lows for a long tail in the daily candle. From indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower in line with a bearish macd that’s already below the zero line. Note we have new dead crosses among the daily EMAs reinforcing the idea that we now have a bearish trend in the big picture. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals as 4H indicators has stochastic with a new bearish crossover while macd is also dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading for overbought areas and macd also pushing up. Given the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined but the long tail and a hammer along with hourly buys suggests a break of 1330.05 could see a run for the EMA lines, 1348.00.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9438 moderate / 0.9458 minor / 0.9484 moderate
Support: 0.9378 moderate / 0.9337 minor / 0.9304 minor

At the close we have AUDUSD giving a good chunk of its gains to see a long wick and a spinning top for a daily candle. Note it appears that mean reversion from end of last week is still around with monday’s price action essentially a breather. Indicators has daily stochastic with a bearish divergence while macd is topping off nearing its own bearish crossover. From the 4H picture we have now formed a descending triangle, double top, while indicators show a confluence of bears with macd nearing zero and stochastic midway to oversold areas. Hourly indicators already has stochastic oversold and macd dropping through the zero line. For now we find ourselves midway to our immediate moderate support at 0.9378. A close below the said price may be seen as a bearish entry for 0.9335 possibly 0.9285. ¬†Alternative entry will be coming off the hypotenuse of your descending triangle in 4H charts. Take too long to break lower and we will look for base building above 0.9378.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3500 moderate / 1.3538 minor / 1.3568 moderate
Support: 1.3469 moderate / 1.34333 minor / 1.3391 moderate

Euro eventually closed near its lows for a bearish sen candle following a break of an intraday type descending triangle resolving the indecision that markets have had since Wednesday’s rally. It appears we may have made a near term top Thursday. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off over bought levels with a bearish divergence while macd is topping off. Given the huge gap between prices and the EMA lines we may have started a mean reversion play. From the 4H we are seeing mixed signals as 4H stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd continues to drop. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic pointing up and macd opening higher. For now we prefer remaining sideline though the longer we stay under 1.3500 the more we will look for shorts particularly at the open of European markets. A bearish fractal or a bearish engulfing in the hourly charts just below the said price can be seen as an entry signal for a move to the 38.2 Fib retracement level, 1.3391.

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