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Articles by Mark De La Paz

November 7th, 2013 @ 1:47 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9537 moderate / 0.9570 minor / 0.9588 minor
Support: 0.9517 moderate / 0.9486 minor / 0.9441 moderate

Aussy has seen a bullish spinning top with highs testing the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off the past three weeks. Daily indicators are seeing mixed signals with stochastic looking to push overbought and macd’s heading lower. Note we have seen a push back above the daily EMA yesterdays and prices at the moment are just above the daily pivot. That said we are looking at Australian jobs numbers with the Unemployment Rate seen coming in at 5.7% while Employment change is expected to 10,700. Intraday we are seeing a a bearish bias with a confluence of bears from hourly indicators with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is heading to the zeroline. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic heading lower while macd has just pushed above the zero line. Look at using a straddle for the entry with poor numbers a convenient excuse to just hold on to shorts on a bearish breakout.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6096 minor / 1.6115 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6066 moderate / 1.6033 minor / 1.6000 psychological

Cable saw a follow through rally yesterday pushing past the daily EMA lines as we appear poised to continue the range play we’ve had from September with a floor at 1.5918 and key resistances at 1.6260. Indicators show mixed signals with daily stochastic poised t -push overbought while macd is flat below the signal line and just above the zero. In the lower time-frames we have a cup and handle in 4H charts stochastic is heading lower while macd is rising and the candles have signaled indecision. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s dropping. Immediate calls for a pullback, a push under 1.6066 may be viewed as a bearish entry. That said we have a BoE meeting and interest rate announcement, an optimistic sounding BoE is likely considering the data we’ve seen of late. We prefer remaining sidelined until today’s central bank meetings are over.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.48 minor / 133.71 moderate / 133.91 moderate
Support: 133.19 moderate / 132.86 moderate / 132.58 minor

EURJPY managed to rally past the daily EMA’s seeing highs at our double top trigger from last week, 131.72 indicators are showing a mixed view. We have daily stochastic crossing up following our bullish close coming off the oversold areas. The macd indicator remains bearish in the daily scale. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd heading down. We appear to have little conviction in EURJPY with few external catalyst, that said we are looking for a bear market once more, part rejection from the previous daily double top trigger part rejection off the 38.2 Fib retracement this as we see further consolidation after last weeks sell-off. Consider shorts at the break of 133.19 the daily pivot.

GBPAUD
Resistance: 1.6986 moderate / 1.7033 moderate / 1.7079 moderate
Support: 1.6938 moderate / 1.6901 minor / 1.6865 moderate

Following a poor reading in Australian jobs data we have GBPAUD rallying the previous hour almost seeing the average daily range. Among indicators we have macd’s heading up looking to push up above the zero-line while daily stochastic is also heading. We face a key resistance at 1.6986 break of which open us to a rally. Note we have almost seen average daily range but an optimistic or even hawkish BoE later on could see us push and extend beyond the daily averages. In the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought in the hourly charts and crossing up in the 4H scale. The macd indicators has crossed higher in hourly charts and is rising in the 4H scale. given the extent of earlier action for now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for the BoE to move the market.

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November 6th, 2013 @ 1:36 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9511 minor / 0.9527 moderate / 0.9549 moderate
Support: 0.9481 moderate / 0.9461 minor / 0.9441 moderate

Despite the daily fractal, attempts at a bullish reversal and getting out of the daily EMA lines failed with Tuesday seeing a high wave doji, an indecision candle. Daily indicators continue to see mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Note we have prices just around the 21D EMA, below the daily pivot and Trade figures at 0030GMT, consensus forecast calling for a reduction in the deficit to about 510 million. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower while macd is heading up. Hourly charts look the same with stochastic seeing a new bear cross and macd in the process of crossing higher. Given the data we prefer remaining sideline a trade surplus could see us pushing past yesterdays highs for the moderate resistance at 0.9549. A worse than expected figure may see us easing back down to the 55D EMA.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3481 moderate / 1.3520 minor / 1.3568 moderate
Support: 1.3458 strong / 1.3420 moderate / 1.3386 moderate

Tuesday saw Euro easing off once more to close just above the key support at 1.3458. Daily indicators continue to see a confluence of bears with stochastic crawling oversold and macd’s heading lower, prices are under the daily EMA lines. In the lower time-frames we have indecisive price action with spinning tops and doji’s in the 4H and hourly candlesticks. Indicators show a confluence of buys in the 4H scale though macd is barely above the signal and stochastic has just crossed up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd seeing a new bullish cross. Note we Services PMI figures for the Eurozone today and Retail Sales numbers, a combination of poor reads will reinforced the idea of possible monetary action. Consider trades on a push under 1.3458, a daily close below the said prices opens up 1.3100.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1312.88 moderate / 1316.75 moderate / 1321.58 moderate
Support: 1305.10 moderate / 1300.00 psychological / 1291.37 moderate

Gold saw mixed market Tuesday ending down with a bearish spinning top for the daily candles. Indicators show a confluence of bears with daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels and macd looking to push under the zero line. From the 4H picture we have a bear cross in stochastic with macd’s flat just above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macds with a bullish crossover. Given the picture intraday we prefer remaining sidelined in Gold though shorts may be taken coming off the 21D EMA around 1321.00 or on a break of the 1305 region.

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November 4th, 2013 @ 2:11 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9476 moderate / 0.9590 minor / 0.9526 moderate
Support: 0.9441 moderate / 0.9414 moderate / 0.9385 moderate

Aussy closed lower Friday though off the weeks trough, market however opened with a bullish gap ahead of expectations of a steady decision by the RBA in tomorrows rate announcement. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Intraday our bullish gap from the open has seen indicators higher. In the 4H scale we have stochastic and macd’s both in the process of crossing up with both also seeing bullish divergences. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s crossing higher. Note we also have Australian numbers coming out at 0030GMT with Retail Sales, Job Advertisements and House Price Index as potential catalyst for further gains should the figures turnout firmly. Consider buys on a strong read for 0.9526. Poor numbers risks us covering the gap from our open.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.2454 minor / 1.4310 minor / 1.4334 minor
Support: 1.4225 moderate / 1.4179 moderate / 1.4125 strong

EURAUD saw a bearish gap at the open of Welling ton markets following through the sell-off from late last week. Note both Euro and Aussy are weaker against the greenback though the former appears to be taking the brunt against the majors. We have just seen strong Retail Sales numbers, an excuse for a follow through bear market. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is poised to cross lower and already under the zero line. In the 4H level we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part also has stochastic in oversold levels and macd’s with a new bear cross. Given the earlier response to Aussy data and over all trends we are looking forward for the next downleg a push under 1.4213 may be seen as a bearish entry for 1.4160 projected low and 1.4125 the key support levels.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.42 moderate / 133.63(69) moderate / 134.02 minor
Support: 133.12 moderate / 132.58 moderate / 132.17 moderate

As with many Euro pairs we saw a weekly engulfing candle in EURJPY while also triggering a double top for the price action in the previous two weeks. This in-turn forming the second top of an even bigger double top. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also heading lower. From the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s bottoming. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing up with macd also poised to push up through the zero line. Look for a scaled entry from 133.42 and 133.69 our objective to complete the bigger double top with triggers at 131.51.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3538 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3603 minor
Support: 1.3495 minor / 1.3460 strong / 1.3420 moderate

The past week saw a big sell-off for the Euro with the weekly candle a bearish engulfing that covered to bullish weekly candles before it. With recent data showing signs of a pick up in the unemployment rate and weak inflation numbers markets are speculating for another liquidity injection by Mario Draghi. From the charts we have stochastic in oversold levels while daily macd is looking to push under the zero line though we face a key support at the 1.3460 area. In the 4H level we have stochastic crawling oversold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd just crossing up as prices come out of a tight congestion with a double bottom from 1.3495. Despite this we prefer looking for a push below 1.3460 as a signal for further weakness. Alternatively consider shorts off 1.3568.

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November 1st, 2013 @ 1:51 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3600 minor / 1.3632 moderate / 1.3689 moderate
Support: 1.3549 minor / 1.3526 moderate / 1.3590 moderate

Euro turned out to be Thursday’s big loser with the daily candle almost tuning out as a marubozu the daily close under 34D EMA despite starting things above the 21d EMA. Note we have doubled average daily ranges yesterday with the bear market down driven by speculations of easing pressure for the ECB as data underscored a weak labor market and deflationary rather than inflation risks. Among indicators we have daily stochastsic in oversold areas while macd has a bear cross. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic pushing further into oversold areas and macd’s dropping. Hourly charts has a flat macd while stochastic is seeing a new bear cross. Consider shorts at market the immediate objective at 1.3526 though we are looking for a test of the 1.3500 area.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.4376 minor / 1.4417 moderate / 1.4460 moderate Support: 1.4333 minor / 1.4296 moderate / 1.4265 moderate

Along with the broad based Euro sell-off we have EURAUD with a huge drop Thursday forming a ‘three inside down’ pattern in the daily candle stick charts. Note the rejection comes off a congestion resistance from early October while indicators has stochastic heading lower and macd’s beginning to top off. At the moment we are trying to push clear through the daily EMA lines. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is dropping and price action suggests a bearish continuation pattern is in the making. Hourly charts for its part has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is flat above the signal line. given all this bias will be for the sell side of the market with shorts off 1.4376 as the preferred entry though a close under 1.4333 may also be seen as a sell signal.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9476 minor / 0.9496 minor / 0.9520 moderate
Support: 0.9440 moderate / 0.9414 minor / 0.9388 moderate

Aussy closed Thursday around the days lows though failing to push under the lows of our high wave candlestick. Daily indicators continue to see stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are inside the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys as 4H stochastic looks to come off oversold levels while macd is beginning to open up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing overbought while macd also has a new bullish crossover. Earlier releases are supportive of a firmer Aussy with Chinese PMI better than expected at 51.4 while Australian PPI shot higher than consensus at 1.3% against the 0.4% median expectation. With this, our price charts, and a long weekend in Europe we are likely to see some consolidation with Aussy set to test the highs from yesterday. Consider a buy on dips off 0.9440.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1328.32 moderate / 1336.72 minor / 1342.00 minor
Support: 1318.74 moderate / 1310.02 moderate /1304.95 minor

Gold saw a sell-off Thursday as the FOMC’s statements were seen as less dovish with prospects of tapering off in June rising. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has topped off. Note we have a rejection from the 61.8 fib retracement of the August to October sell-off with the fractal pattern from earlier in the week leading to the drop below the EMA lines. In the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts are also mixed with macd bottoming out and stochastic crossing lower. Look for a close below 1318.74 on an hourly basis to signal follow through weakness.

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October 31st, 2013 @ 2:12 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8267 minor / 0.8287 moderate / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8228 moderate / 0.8191 moderate / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday with lows easing to 0.8183, previous false breakout lows in the congestion from late September to early October, only to close with a hammer in the daily charts and long tail. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are still dropping. Note our hammer is bouncing off a previous congestion floor and 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in bothe 4H and hourly picture stochastic for both are seeing new bear crosses after failing to push overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators for its part is pointing higher for both, though also under the zero line. Given the hammer and supports our preference is for a buy on dips to the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.8228.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8267 minor / 0.8287 moderate / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8228 moderate / 0.8191 moderate / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday with lows easing to 0.8183, previous false breakout lows in the congestion from late September to early October, only to close with a hammer in the daily charts and long tail. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are still dropping. Note our hammer is bouncing off a previous congestion floor and 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in both 4H and hourly picture stochastic for both are seeing new bear crosses after failing to push overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators for its part is pointing higher for both, though also under the zero line. Given the hammer and supports our preference is for a buy on dips to the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.8228.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6038 moderate / 1.6077 moderate / 1.6114 moderate
Support: 1.6000 psychological / 1.5957 minor / 1.5918 moderate

Cable saw a high wave candle Wednesday to suggest that bearish momentum is faltering as we form a daily double top. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are inside the EMA lines. From the the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals consistent with a high wave daily candlestick. The 4H stochastic is heading lower as macd’s see a new bullish cross while hourly charts has stochastic heading up and macd bottoming out. For now we see little sense of urgency in Cable with the high wave candle merely serving as a warning signal, given the absence of a big external catalyst we prefer playing the extremes. Consider shorts on rallies to 1.6077, 1.6114 or buys off 1.5957, 1.5918.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3738 moderate / 1.3780 moderate / 1.3811 minor
Support: 1.3718c minor / 1.3692 moderate / 1.3669 moderate

As with many of the majors we have a high wave candle in Euro daily charts as bulls and bears read what they wanted from the FOMC statement. Big picture we still view Euro as a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the monthly sell-off from 2011 with the daily fractals objective still untouched the 21D EMA at 1.3669. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is at risk of a bear cross. Intraday we have mixed signals in the hourly picture with stochastic crossing up and macd’s under zero and below the signal line. In the 4H level we are bearish as stochastic crosses lower once more and macd’s are dropping. It appears that markets look indecisive in the near term despite your big picture. As such we prefer a sell on rallies to yesterdays highs or buy on dips from the 21D EMA.

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October 30th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3751 minor / 1.3772 moderate / 1.3793 minor
Support: 1.3703 moderate / 1.3688 minor / 1.3663 moderate

Euro saw a follow through bear market to its Monday fractal with Tuesdays daily close around its lows. This reinforces the notion of a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off in the weekly charts from May 2011. Among indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower while macd is also poised at a bearish crossover, we are looking at market action as mean reversion with the 21D EMA at 1.3663 as our objective. In intraday charts we have sell signals with stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also bearish for the 4H picture. Hourly charts as well points lower with a new bear cross in stochastic joining a bearish macd. For now we prefer shorting with markets in the process of getting a further down-leg a close under 1.3737 may be seen as a bearish entry though we prefer shorts off 1.3751.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6070 moderate / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6017 moderate / 1.5998 moderate / 1.5955 moderate

Tuesday saw a huge sell-off in Cable finally taking out the congestion floor from the previous weeks range play. This pushing GBPUSD well into forming a double top pattern with its trigger around 1.5918, 23.6 Fib retracement of the rally from July lows. Indicators show a confluence of bears as we get a new bear cross in macd while stochastic has pushed into oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears in the 4H picture as stochastic crawls oversold levels while macd is below the zero line and dropping. Hourly charts for their part suggests a new bearish entry with stochastic just crossing lower failing to push overbought in consolidation mode though macd has a new bullish cross. For now we prefer a more cautious approach at joining the bear market waiting for a break of 1.6017, a moderate support. Alternative entry will be a rejection from the daily pivot at 1.6070.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9487 moderate / 0.9508 moderate / 0.9544 moderate
Support: 0.9453 minor / 0.9417 moderate / 0.9388 minor

Following Gov. Stevens statement over the currency early Tuesday, we have AUDUSD with a big sell-off almost a bearish marubozu in the daily picture. For the moment we are in the process of pushing under the 34D EMA with prices already in the midst of your daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is also dropping sharply. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping below the zero line. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic looking to push back into oversold areas while macd are technically bullish above the signal line though under zero. At this point we are looking for further weakness a push under 0.9453 could be seen as a bearish entry though, alternatively we may also use a rejection off 0.9487. Note we are looking forward to atleast testing the 55D EMA at around 0.9409 though we have 0.9283 as our objective in the near term.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8271 moderate / 0.8313 minor / 0.8331 minor
Support: 0.8228 strong / 0.8191 minor / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi is at the congestion floor of the September range play, incidentally 38.2 Fib retracement of the August to October rally. Note we view this support as critical a push below it could pave the way for a sharp sell-off if under the context of a bubble imploding in the property market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is poised to push under the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at the signal line trying to bottom out. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold while macd is above the signal line. For now look for a break of the 0.8228 region to trigger a bear market possibly for the psychological 0.8000.

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October 28th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8303 moderate / 0.8333 moderate /0.8359 moderate
Support: 0.8272 minor / 0.8247 moderate / 0.8228 moderate

Kiwi saw a sharp sell-off last week with sustained losses taking within distance of the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the September rally. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are already inside the daily EMA’s having crossed 21D and 34D EMA previously while 55D EMA is right around the 38.2 Fib at 0.8228.In the 4H picture we have stochastic oscillating around the oversold threshold indicative of a bear trend along with the bearish macd’s. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to go overbought and macd’s bullish through prices have been consolidating. With the holiday in New Zealand we see little sense of urgency but proximity to the daily pivot at 0.8303 we are looking for a rejection, a sell-off to the the 38.2 fib at 0.8228, also the 55DEMA.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9600 minor / 0.9623 moderate / 0.9643 moderate
Support: 0.9569 moderate / 0.9534 moderate / 0.9500 psychological

Aussy has seen confused price action since Thursday high wave doji, with Friday seeing minimal ranges to underscore the potential change in trend. That said we have yet to see the daily EMA lines, while indicators are still bearish with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s getting a new bear cross. From the lower time-frames we are seeing the indecision underscored by stochastic crossing and a bearish 4H macd even as we have hourly stochastic barely staying overbought at risk of a bear cross even as macd’s have followed up. For now we retain a bullish medium term view for the Aussy given improved external conditions while policy changes on the fiscal side is also seen boosting the domestic economy. The preferred course of action remains to be a buy on dips to the 21D EMA at 0.9534.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6187 moderate / 1.6213 minor / 1.6238 minor
Support: 1.6155 minor / 1.6215 moderate / 1.6096 moderate

Cable spent the past week in a range play though we have a double top forming over the last six weeks, the second top made out of our range play. Daily indicators has mixed signals with stochastic coming out of overbought levels while macd is flat above the signal line. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing up while macd is below the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s also crossing up. Despite the big picture double top in the making it appears GBPUSD is likely to continue with the ranging action for the past week until we see an external catalyst. Still we prefer a sell on rallies off the 1.6260 region. Take too long to push higher and we may consider shorts off the daily pivot at 1.6187.

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October 16th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3536 minor / 1.3570 minor / 1.3600 moderate
Support: 1.3506 minor / 1.3482 moderate / 1.3460 moderate

Euro saw more than its daily averages yesterday with a bearish daily candle for a close as we find prices back under the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower while macd’s are also dropping. Note we remain inside the congestion for the past month, waiting for a catalyst to push through our floors. From the lower time frames we are seeing an indecisive combination of signals with 4H macd’s down and stochastic heading up. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd’s up. Given the broader picture we prefer taking the sell side of Euro following a break of 1.3507, an hourly close below 1.3482 could spark the next big down leg.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1281.28 minor / 1288.15 minor / 1294.41 moderate
Support: 1274.19 minor / 1266.59 moderate / 1260.86 minor

Gold continues to discount the possibility of a default by the US with Tuesday price action seeing bears drag Gold charts to new lows as we continue to ease beneath the the 61.8 fib retracement level of the rally from June 28. Note we ended up with along tail for a high wave spinning top in the daily charts potentially defining the bottom of our bear trend. Daily indicators has macd’s dropping while stochastic is coming off oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators stochastic and macd, the former pushing for overbought levels. Hourly charts has stochastic at risk of seeing oversold levels while macd is above the signal line. Given the nearing deadline over raising the US debt ceiling we risk haven plays as any solution remains elusive.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9547 moderate / 0.9600 minor / 0.9620 minor
Support: 0.9516 minor / 0.9498 minor / 0.9484 moderate

Tuesday has Aussy ending the day above the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from April with indicators showing a confluence of buys the daily stochastic back in overbought areas while macd has a new bullish cross, the combination suggesting we are ready for the next surged up. Note yesterdays push effectively invalidates the idea of forming a double top. From the 4H picture we are currently seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up though the latest candlesticks suggests we are looking to push past our congestion ceiling with a bullish engulfing. From the hourly picture we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic poised to cross lower and macd’s up. We do not see any sense of urgency from our charts as such we prefer remaining sidelined for now though a close above 0.9547 should open the way for further gains.

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