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Articles by Mark De La Paz

January 31st, 2014 @ 2:00 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1249.53 moderate / 1256.54 moderate / 1261.09 moderate
Support: 1241.72 minor / 1235.54 moderate / 1231.47 moderate

Gold saw a big sell-off Thursday pushing under the daily EMA lines and dragging indicators into a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for the over areas while macd has a new bear cross. Note overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. Recall we are in a rejection from the 38.2 fib retracement level of our sell-off from August. Intraday we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd has sold off. Hourly charts however suggests pullback risk with stochastic trying to cross up and macd seeing a bullish cross. For now we remain sidelined waiting for a break of 1241.72 to get the bears going.Key test will be the support at 1235.54 break of which opens the December congestion floor.

Aussy
Resistance: 0.8825 moderate / 0.8854 minor / 0.8890 moderate
Support: 0.8768 moderate / 0.8735 moderate / 0.8711 moderate

Aussy saw a rally Thursday closing around the days highs with indicators showing stochastic heading up and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. We are however well resisted at the 0.8825 region and by the daily EMA lines. Indicators however show a confluence of buys a bullish divergence in stochastic and a new bullish crossover in macd. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with the 4H stochastic in overbought areas while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s rising. At this point Aussy is well resisted though the bullish indicators suggests we probe the daily EMA’s. That said our preference may beto just play the crosses looking for an attempt in the topside in Aussy and a bearish Euro to see a big drop in EURAUD.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.5408 minor / 1.5495 moderate / 1.5552 minor
Support: 1.5321 moderate / 1.5232 moderate / 1.5148 moderate

At the close we have EURAUD at around the 23.6 Fib retracement level of our rally from November and the days lows. Note overall trend remains bullish though projected lows should be around our moderate support of 1.5232. Among indicators we have daily stochastic looking to push oversold while macd’s also see a bear cross. In intradat charts we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping while in the hourly scale we have stochastic oscillating around oversold areas suggesting a bear trend. Hourly macd’s for their part are below zero and the signal line. Given the big sell-off consider shorting at push below the 1.5321 S1 our objective 1.5232 projected lows and previous low as well.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3588 minor / 1.3632 moderate / 1.3658 minor
Support: 1.3545 minor / 1.3500 psychological / 1.3466 minor

Thursday saw steady sell-off in EURUSD taking us under the daily EMA’s for what could be a resumption of the overall bearish tone closing the day just around its lows. Note we now have Euro just above the floor for January’s consolidation. Daily indicators are seeing a new confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is crossing lower. From the lower time-frames we have stochastic in oversold areas for the 4H charts while macd is dropping though we need a catalyst for the next drop as momentum has faltered. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic trying to come off overbought levels while macd has a bullish crossover. For now remain sidelined waiting for a break of the 1.3545 area then a move down through S1 from pivots along with the months lows and psychological support at 1.3500/10.

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January 30th, 2014 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8758 moderate / 0.8792 moderate / 0.8822 moderate
Support: 0.8725 moderate / 0.8691 moderate / 0.8658 moderate

We have Aussy closing the trading day around its lows with market mostly congesting between the daily pivot and S1 following the sell-off in European trade. this appears to be a resumption of our pattern of lower highs and lows in the daily chart with us now looking for the latter. Daily indicators has a bullish divergence while stochastic is also trying a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic in oversold levels for 4H charts while macd also has a new bear cross back under the zero line. Hourly charts for the moment are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading lower. We prefer looking for shorts under 0.8725 either on a close below the said price in Asian trade or at a break during European open. Alternatively we can use a false breakout out of the daily pivot as a bearish entry.

EURJPY
Resistance: 139.99 moderate / 140.35 minor / 140.80 minor
Support: 139.47 minor / 139.22 moderate / 138.73 moderate

Wednesday saw a bear market for EURJPY with prices easing down to the 55DEMA resuming its bear trend after a two day reprieve. We currently have prices just under the daily pivot at 139.99 while indicators show stochastic crossing lower poised to push oversold and macd’s just easing through the zero line. Big picture charts appear to have a nice target at 138.43 the 50 Fib retracement from November’s rally and a congestion floor. In intraday charts we are currently seeing a mixed picture with 4H stochastic just around the oversold threshold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic seeing a bear cross and macd a bullish crossover. At this point we prefer remaining sidelined though keeping a bearish bias, look for European to potentially see some more volatility and an excuse for committing to the sell side.

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January 27th, 2014 @ 1:52 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1278.26 moderate / 1284.29 minor / 1291.96 moderate
Support: 1269.20 moderate / 1263.99 moderate / 1257.16 moderate

Gold saw further gains Friday, though modest compared to the big reversal the day prior. Already we have seen a quick attempt at taking out the 38.2 fib retracement level for our sell-off from August though the initial rush seems to be losing momentum. From indicators we have a confluence of buys with daily stochastic pushing back into overbought levels suggesting pressure to take out resistances whilemacd has just recently pushed back up above the zero line. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with a bullish macd in 4H charts while stochastic risks a bear cross. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic crossing down and macd’s with a bullish cross. For now we prefer looking for a consolidation just above the 1269.20 region with long tails an excuse to retest the 38.2 Fib, 1278.26 as long as we have the real body staying above 1269.20. The longer we take to rally the greater risk of a technical rejection from the 38.2 Fib level.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8241 moderate / 0.8277 minor / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8209 moderate / 0.8192 moderate / 0.8158 minor

Kiwi has already gapped lower at the open trying a follow through to Friday’s risk aversion driven sell-off. Note we appear to be shifting to the lower half of the consolidation from October of last year. Prices at the moment are just above the lows for the past two weeks and a bullish trend line from November 29. We have daily stochastic heading lower for the 20 threshold while macd’s look poised to crash under the zero-line. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making as 4h stochastic joins a bearish macd with its new bear cross. Hourly charts also has a new bearish crossover in macd and stochastic dropping. At this point we see little sense of urgency with theimmdiate objectively likely to be taking out the trend line. We prefer looking for shorts following long wicks in the hourly charts that sticks through the 0.8241 level.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8720 moderate / 0.8755(60) moderate / 0.8777 minor
Support: 0.8659 minor / 0.8632 moderate / 0.8573 moderate

Friday saw an early sell-off in Aussy pushing past the 0.8755 price point in Asian to close near its lows as markets turned-risk averse. Among indicators we now have stochastic reentering oversold levels while daily macd’s are also heading lower. Note we have prices under the daily pivots while our sell-off from Thursday may be seen as a rejection off bearish daily EMA lines. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making with hourly stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is getting started with a bear cross. In the 4H picture we have stochastic also in the process of crossing lower while macd is already dropping and below zero. Note however we have holiday in Australia suggesting we could have limited immediate interest in taking action. For now we do not have a sense of urgency though long wicks past the daily pivot at 0.8709 will be a good excuse for jumping short.

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January 24th, 2014 @ 1:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6666 moderate / 1.6697 minor / 1.6752 strong
Support: 1.6611 moderate / 1.6582 moderate / 1.6556 minor

Cable managed to surge past previous swing highs to close above the 1.6601 price point and just under the daily highs. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while the macds have also crossed highs. Given the daily close the past three days, price charts themselves suggests a build-up of momentum. Note we are at levels last sincein 2011. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic crawling above 80 while macd’s are also bullish. Hourly charts however has new sell signals in both macd and stochastic coming out of overbought areas. Immediate view appear to call for a technical correction perhaps to yesterdays breakout point at 1.6601. Look for base building around the said areas and daily pivot of 1.6611. Long tails and dragon fly doji’s would be our cue to rejoin the buy side.

USDCAD
Resistance: 1.1118 moderate / 1.1154 moderate / 1.1172 minor
Support: 1.1091 minor / 1.1064 moderate / 1.1018 minor

In the end USDCAD turned out to be a shooting star Thursday unable to hold to its gains despite several whipsaws in intraday charts. Daily indicators has stochastic trying to push back up into overbought levels while macd is also bullish. Note given the rally the past three weeks, the daily candlestick and this being Friday we may be looking at a possible start for mean reversions plays. Intraday we have a consolidation from 4H charts with stochastic heading lower and macds flat above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part are looking mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd continues to point lower. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the lack of impetus though bias will be for shorts and mean reversion, a break of Thursdays lows an aggressive entry . Should we remain just under the pivots at European open cosnider shorts with tight stops above the figure. 1.1118.

CADJPY
Resistance: 93.25 moderate / 93.62 minor / 94.16 minor
Support: 92.95 minor / 92.41 moderate / 92.23 strong

Thursday saw CADJPY selling off in line with the broadly firmer Japanese Yen to see us just days range from the key support level of 92.23 2013′s consolidation floor. Among indicators we have new dead crosses in daily EMA’s while stochastic is oversold and macd also bearish in both daily and the weekly charts. We appear to be set to make a run for the key support level. In 4H charts we have a piercing pattern with stochastic also coming off oversold areas and macd’s heading down. hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic in the process of coming off overbought areas, candlesticks indecisive though macd has a bullish crossover. Note we have Canadian CPI figures set for release at 1330GMT, consensus forecast underscoring deflationary pressure the core read expected at -0.4 and headline CPI seen coming at -0.2%. weak results will be an excuse to make a run for 92.23.

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January 20th, 2014 @ 1:41 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3493 minor / 1.3582 minor / 1.3622 moderate
Support: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3460 minor / 1.3414 moderate

Euro saw further weakness Friday closing below previous swing lows after a rejection off the daily EMA lines and the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the years drop thus far. At the moment we have EURUSD taking out Fridays lows with daily indicators suggesting a bear market as EMA lines begin to show new dead crosses while macd is pushing further below the zero line and stochastic has gone oversold. Note this could all be viewed as part of the sell-off following the month long double top pattern breakout. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s dropping while Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bear cross along with a bearish macd. At this point swing traders can used the push through Fridays lows as a bearish entry though a break of 1.3500 would, would be preferable as an entry for intraday trades.

EURJPY
Resistance: 141.04 minor / 141.50 moderate / 141.82 minor
Support: 140.47 minor / 139.86 moderate / 139.20 moderate

We are seeing a poor start for the week in EURJPY this a combination of follow through to weakness from Friday, a broader strengthening for the Yen and Euro also dropping. At the moment we have prices in between the 34D and 55D EMA’s while the shorter sampling periods begin to flatten while stochastic begins to cross lower, looking to push oversold and macd’s are dropping. From the lower time-frames we see a confluence of bears as stochastic crawls oversold from the 4H picture while macd pushes further lower below zero. Hourly charts for their part has a new bear cross in stochastic and macd’s easing off. Note we have equity markets tumbling at the open of Asian markets. For now we prefer looking for a break of 140.47 as our bearish entry with the 55D EMA at 139.86 as our objective.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8781 moderate / 0.8800 minor / 0.8827 minor
Support: 0.8753 moderate / 0.8726 minor / 0.8690 minor

Aussy saw a modest drop Friday inline with weakness off other commodity currencies. We are now at levels last seen in 2010 heading for the RBA’s 0.8500 comfort zone. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into oversold territory while macd’s also has a new bear cross. In the lower time frames we are seeing a bearish bias though macd’s in both 4H and hourly charts have begun to flatten out while under the zero line. The stochastic indicators for its part is at oversold levels in the 4H picture while seeing a new hourly bear cross. Note we have Chinese data atthe endof the hour, 0100GMT, a good read in Fixed Asset investments and Industrial Production could be seen as a boost for Aussy though weakness in turn would be a good excuse to short, consensus forecast is 19.8% and 9.8% respectively. Other figures will see China GDP with a7.6% consensus and Retail Sales seen at 13.6%

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6422 minor / 1.6457 moderate / 1.6500 psychological
Support: 1.6396 moderate / 1.6357 minor / 1.6315 moderate

Cable saw surge up Friday following a strong Retail Sales at 2.6% against an 0.5% consensus forecast. Still from the big picture we have a lower highs and lower lows setup with prices currently just above the 21D EMA and the days pivot of 1.6396. Among indicators we have stochastic with a new bullish crossover and daily macd’s heading lower. From the 4H picture we are seeing a similarly mixed set of signals with stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears, macd has been easing off down to the zero line while stochastic sees a new bear cross. For the moment we prefer remaining sideline though a push below the daily pivot at 1.6396 could be used as a bearish entry continuing the pattern of daily lower highs and lower lows.

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January 16th, 2014 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8917 minor / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8953 moderate
Support: 0.8887 moderate / 0.8866 minor / 0.8844 minor

Aussy saw a follow through to the turn-around from the EMA lines pushing into the middle of the December range play to close with a decent sized bearish body. Daily stochastic is looking poised to push oversold while the macd indicator look at risk of crossing down through its signal line. Note we have prices under the daily EMA’s. From the lower time frames we are looking for a confluence of bears in 4h charts with stochastic looking poised to cross lower and push oversold once more while macd has just gone down through the zero line. After 12H of consolidation we are currently in the process of breaking lower among the candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also poised to cross lower. For now we are just waiting to confirm the bearish view with Australian jobs numbers set for release at 0030GMT. Weakness in the employment change figures or a blowout in the unemployment rate could be an excuse to make run for the swing lows at 0.8822.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8357 moderate / 0.8384 minor / 0.8413 moderate
Support: 0.8316 moderate / 0.8283 minor / 0.8245 moderate

Wednesday saw kiwi with a sell-off easing down following through the spinning top the prior day. We now have prices back at the breakout point of a 2-month long symmetric triangle. Among indicators we have stochastic coming out of overbought areas while macd’s are topping off. Note we have prices below the daily pivot and getting dragged lower by the broad retreat among commodity currencies following the poor Aussy data. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold once more in 4H charts while macd is dropping and prices break lower. Hourly charts has stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is also down. For now we are looking for an hourly close below 0.8316 to signal a further push into the prior pattern with projected lows at 0.8262.

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January 15th, 2014 @ 1:25 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8384 minor / 1.8413 moderate / 0.8448 moderate
Support: 0.8357 moderate / 0.8316 moderate / 0.8283 minor

Tuesday saw Kiwi with a long wick for a daily shooting star suggesting that the weeks symmetric triangle breakout is faltering. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading up suggesting overall trends remain bullish. Note however the big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines making charts vulnerable to mean reversion. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic with a bearish divergence and macd’s in the process of crossing lower. Candles sticks show a bearish engulfing though we are now just above a moderate support at 0.8357. Hourly charts has stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is poised to ease through the zero line. Already we have half the average daily range since the open of Wellington markets. With the daily shooting star our immediate risk is for mean reversion with a break of 0.8357 getting the move to the EMA lines started.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8984 moderate / 0.9018 minor / 0.9045 minor
Support: 0.8953 moderate / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8909 moderate

Aussy saw a steady sell-off in Tuesday trade pushing through the daily EMA lines, back under the 21D EMA with prices closing near their lows and just above a daily consolidation. From indicators we are seeing a mixed view with the failure to push past the 55D EMA seeing stochastic turn with a new bear cross though daily macd remains bullish. From the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling in oversold areas and macd easing off as well looking to push below zero. Hourly charts has stochastic coming off oversold areas for a technical correction while macd is down. For the moment we have a bounce from the immediate floor though we retain a bearish overall bias given the daily picture and fundies with the RBA seeing 0.8500 as a sweet spot. Consider shorts on a break of 0.8953 or should we get long wicks in the hourly picture through the 0.8984 level.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3679 moderate / 1.3700 moderate / 1.3719 moderate
Support: 1.3656 moderate / 1.3636 moderate / 1.3602 minor

Euro has a high wave spining top once more failing to hold on to gains and losses as it gets pressed at the top with the 38.2 Fib retracement level from December highs, 1.3679 while the daily EMA lines are providing a porous floor. From indicators we have a bullish view with stochastic overbought and daily macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. In the intraday picture we have a consolidation in 4h candlesticks with stochastic flat in between the thresholds and macd’s flat just above the signal line. Hourly charts has stochastic with a bullish crossover while macd for its part is heading down looking to push under the zero-line. Despite the mixed view our bias will be for the sell side of Euro, consider shorts coming off yesterdays highs at 1.3699 or on a a break of the 1.3656 area.

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January 14th, 2014 @ 1:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6396 moderate / 1.6433 minor / 1.6465 moderate
Support: 1.6348 moderate / 1.6315 moderate / 1.6258 strong

Monday saw Cable selling-off on commercial interest dragging prices down under the 21D EMA at the close with a daily head and shoulder forming. Note our weekly charts suggests markets are topping off with long wicks among the candlesticks.At the moment we have prices just above the 34D, previously we had apattern of bouncing from the said line though this time we do not have a preceding higher high. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in stochastic joining an already bearish macd. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold areas with 4H macd’s heading lower as well. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. At this point we are keeping a bearish bias though we need a push under the neckline at 1.6351 to get things going, our near term objective to ease down to 1.6258 the consolidation resistance from 2013.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1255.05 moderate / 1263.99 moderate / 1268.99 minor
Support: 1248.09 moderate  / 1237.00 moderate / 1231.33 moderate

At the close we saw gold holding above the 55D EMA opening the way for a possible surge to the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from 1433.69, August 2013 highs. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing back up into theoverbought area with daily macdalso in he process of crossing up through the zero line. Note with the poor US jobs numbers there is growing speculation that the taper policy may be short lived with the Yellen leadership in the FOMC. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic pushing into overbought areas and macd’s on the rise. From the hourly picture we have stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s with a new bear cross. We appear to be forming a double top in the candlesticks intraday. Given the big picture we prefer a buy on dips though a break of 1255.05 could also be used as an entry point.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9040 moderate / 0.9071 moderate / 0.9097 moderate
Support: 0.9017 minor / 0.8983 moderate / 0.8958 moderate

After Mondays rally we are seeing a poor start for Aussy with the push higher taking us just under the 55D EMA before the current sell-off. Daily indicators for now are bullish with an overbought stochastic and macd’s still heading up. Note we may have run the course of our bounce as we also saw 78.6 Fib of the drop from December. From the lower time frames we have a high wave spinning top defining the highs in 4H charts while stochastic is quickly heading down to zero and macd’s are topping off. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold areas and macd’s also heading lower. We have just triggered a double top in the hourly picture with the push through the daily pivot at 0.9040 confirming the bear market. This is a sell at market for 0.8984 with stops just above 0.9054.

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