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Articles by Mark De La Paz

October 30th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3751 minor / 1.3772 moderate / 1.3793 minor
Support: 1.3703 moderate / 1.3688 minor / 1.3663 moderate

Euro saw a follow through bear market to its Monday fractal with Tuesdays daily close around its lows. This reinforces the notion of a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off in the weekly charts from May 2011. Among indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower while macd is also poised at a bearish crossover, we are looking at market action as mean reversion with the 21D EMA at 1.3663 as our objective. In intraday charts we have sell signals with stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also bearish for the 4H picture. Hourly charts as well points lower with a new bear cross in stochastic joining a bearish macd. For now we prefer shorting with markets in the process of getting a further down-leg a close under 1.3737 may be seen as a bearish entry though we prefer shorts off 1.3751.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6070 moderate / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6017 moderate / 1.5998 moderate / 1.5955 moderate

Tuesday saw a huge sell-off in Cable finally taking out the congestion floor from the previous weeks range play. This pushing GBPUSD well into forming a double top pattern with its trigger around 1.5918, 23.6 Fib retracement of the rally from July lows. Indicators show a confluence of bears as we get a new bear cross in macd while stochastic has pushed into oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears in the 4H picture as stochastic crawls oversold levels while macd is below the zero line and dropping. Hourly charts for their part suggests a new bearish entry with stochastic just crossing lower failing to push overbought in consolidation mode though macd has a new bullish cross. For now we prefer a more cautious approach at joining the bear market waiting for a break of 1.6017, a moderate support. Alternative entry will be a rejection from the daily pivot at 1.6070.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9487 moderate / 0.9508 moderate / 0.9544 moderate
Support: 0.9453 minor / 0.9417 moderate / 0.9388 minor

Following Gov. Stevens statement over the currency early Tuesday, we have AUDUSD with a big sell-off almost a bearish marubozu in the daily picture. For the moment we are in the process of pushing under the 34D EMA with prices already in the midst of your daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is also dropping sharply. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping below the zero line. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic looking to push back into oversold areas while macd are technically bullish above the signal line though under zero. At this point we are looking for further weakness a push under 0.9453 could be seen as a bearish entry though, alternatively we may also use a rejection off 0.9487. Note we are looking forward to atleast testing the 55D EMA at around 0.9409 though we have 0.9283 as our objective in the near term.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8271 moderate / 0.8313 minor / 0.8331 minor
Support: 0.8228 strong / 0.8191 minor / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi is at the congestion floor of the September range play, incidentally 38.2 Fib retracement of the August to October rally. Note we view this support as critical a push below it could pave the way for a sharp sell-off if under the context of a bubble imploding in the property market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is poised to push under the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at the signal line trying to bottom out. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold while macd is above the signal line. For now look for a break of the 0.8228 region to trigger a bear market possibly for the psychological 0.8000.

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October 28th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8303 moderate / 0.8333 moderate /0.8359 moderate
Support: 0.8272 minor / 0.8247 moderate / 0.8228 moderate

Kiwi saw a sharp sell-off last week with sustained losses taking within distance of the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the September rally. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are already inside the daily EMA’s having crossed 21D and 34D EMA previously while 55D EMA is right around the 38.2 Fib at 0.8228.In the 4H picture we have stochastic oscillating around the oversold threshold indicative of a bear trend along with the bearish macd’s. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to go overbought and macd’s bullish through prices have been consolidating. With the holiday in New Zealand we see little sense of urgency but proximity to the daily pivot at 0.8303 we are looking for a rejection, a sell-off to the the 38.2 fib at 0.8228, also the 55DEMA.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9600 minor / 0.9623 moderate / 0.9643 moderate
Support: 0.9569 moderate / 0.9534 moderate / 0.9500 psychological

Aussy has seen confused price action since Thursday high wave doji, with Friday seeing minimal ranges to underscore the potential change in trend. That said we have yet to see the daily EMA lines, while indicators are still bearish with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s getting a new bear cross. From the lower time-frames we are seeing the indecision underscored by stochastic crossing and a bearish 4H macd even as we have hourly stochastic barely staying overbought at risk of a bear cross even as macd’s have followed up. For now we retain a bullish medium term view for the Aussy given improved external conditions while policy changes on the fiscal side is also seen boosting the domestic economy. The preferred course of action remains to be a buy on dips to the 21D EMA at 0.9534.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6187 moderate / 1.6213 minor / 1.6238 minor
Support: 1.6155 minor / 1.6215 moderate / 1.6096 moderate

Cable spent the past week in a range play though we have a double top forming over the last six weeks, the second top made out of our range play. Daily indicators has mixed signals with stochastic coming out of overbought levels while macd is flat above the signal line. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing up while macd is below the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s also crossing up. Despite the big picture double top in the making it appears GBPUSD is likely to continue with the ranging action for the past week until we see an external catalyst. Still we prefer a sell on rallies off the 1.6260 region. Take too long to push higher and we may consider shorts off the daily pivot at 1.6187.

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October 16th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3536 minor / 1.3570 minor / 1.3600 moderate
Support: 1.3506 minor / 1.3482 moderate / 1.3460 moderate

Euro saw more than its daily averages yesterday with a bearish daily candle for a close as we find prices back under the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower while macd’s are also dropping. Note we remain inside the congestion for the past month, waiting for a catalyst to push through our floors. From the lower time frames we are seeing an indecisive combination of signals with 4H macd’s down and stochastic heading up. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd’s up. Given the broader picture we prefer taking the sell side of Euro following a break of 1.3507, an hourly close below 1.3482 could spark the next big down leg.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1281.28 minor / 1288.15 minor / 1294.41 moderate
Support: 1274.19 minor / 1266.59 moderate / 1260.86 minor

Gold continues to discount the possibility of a default by the US with Tuesday price action seeing bears drag Gold charts to new lows as we continue to ease beneath the the 61.8 fib retracement level of the rally from June 28. Note we ended up with along tail for a high wave spinning top in the daily charts potentially defining the bottom of our bear trend. Daily indicators has macd’s dropping while stochastic is coming off oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators stochastic and macd, the former pushing for overbought levels. Hourly charts has stochastic at risk of seeing oversold levels while macd is above the signal line. Given the nearing deadline over raising the US debt ceiling we risk haven plays as any solution remains elusive.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9547 moderate / 0.9600 minor / 0.9620 minor
Support: 0.9516 minor / 0.9498 minor / 0.9484 moderate

Tuesday has Aussy ending the day above the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from April with indicators showing a confluence of buys the daily stochastic back in overbought areas while macd has a new bullish cross, the combination suggesting we are ready for the next surged up. Note yesterdays push effectively invalidates the idea of forming a double top. From the 4H picture we are currently seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up though the latest candlesticks suggests we are looking to push past our congestion ceiling with a bullish engulfing. From the hourly picture we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic poised to cross lower and macd’s up. We do not see any sense of urgency from our charts as such we prefer remaining sidelined for now though a close above 0.9547 should open the way for further gains.

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October 11th, 2013 @ 1:57 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3546 minor / 1.3585 minor / 1.3607 minor
Support: 1.3519 moderate / 1.3486 minor / 1.3463 moderate

Thursday turned out to be a consolidation with attempts to get a follow through bear market thwarted by the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we continue to have sell signals with stochastic looking to push oversold on the daily scale while macd is also bearish. Note we have prices just around the 21D EMA and barely above the daily pivot. From the lower time-frames we have triggered a double-bottom in 4H charts while signals are mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd in the process of crossing up. hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to cross lower and macd technically above the signal line though barely so. Given the mixed intraday picture good supports and bearish daily signals we prefer remaining sidelined. We need an external catalyst for sustained price action, a follow through rally in equity markets could push us off the EMA lines or a resolution in the US debt-ceiling and government shut could drive us clear through the EMA lines.

Gold
Resistance: 1294.51 moderate / 1300.00 minor / 1305.61 moderate
Support: 1282.58 moderate / 1275.27 moderate / 1267.63 moderate

Gold saw a follow through sell-off late in New York markets as we continue the pattern of lower highs, hoping for a lower low. We once again find gold around the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our rally from June. Daily indicators show stochastic pushing oversold while the macd indicator is also dropping. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s dropping though candlesticks has a dragonfly doji. Hourly charts for heir part has macd bottoming out and stochastic off oversold levels. We appear to have an ongoing pullback, for now look for the current bounce to stabilize around the 1294.51 area with a subsequent distribution a signal for us to take the sell side. Consider a scaled entry from 1294.51 hen on from 1300.00 and R1 of pivots at 1305.61.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.30 moderate / 133.56 minor / 133.94 minor
Support: 132.94 minor / 132.52 moderate / 132.08 moderate

EURJPY managed to rally past our bearish trend-line likely breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows from mid September. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for over bought levels while macd is in the process of crossing up even as we find yesterdays bounce completely pushing past the daily EMA lines. In the lower time-frames we have 4H charts with a confluence of buys, as stochastic crawls in overbought levels and macd is rising with price action showing along tail. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic reentering overbought levels and macd’s beginning to pickup. For now immediate risk seems to be for further gains, however given the extent of our rally from yesterday we prefer waiting for the European open ad sign weakness in European equities could easily see EURJPY change course.

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October 10th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9464 minor / 0.9483 moderate / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9441 moderate / 0.9412 moderate / 0.9378 moderate

Aussy charts are beginning to show indecisive price action with another narrow real body a doji for Wednesday’s candle though over all trend remains bullish still in search for he next higher high with our long tails. Daily indicators for their part has stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd itself is crossing up. Note we risk forming a double top with the loss of momentum though data at 0030GMT could see us on the move again. We have Australian jobs number consensus forecast for the Unemployment Rate at 5.8% and Employment Change expected to show 15200 new jobs. In the lower timeframes we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up and macd’s down in 4H charts while hourly indicators has stochastic heading lower and mac’sup. Given data releases we plan on straddling Aussy just before the release.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 92.39 moderate / 92.75 minor / 93.05 minor
Support: 91.92 minor / 91.66 minor / 91.32 minor

We have had AUDJPY in a range play for the last two weeks though price action from Tuesday till yesterday suggests an attempt at a bullish breakout is once more in progress. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push into overbought levels macd is also looking for a bullish cross, currently we have prices once more above the daily EMA lines following yesterdays surge to the congestion resistances. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with the stochastic indicators for both hourly and 4H charts looking to push overbought. The macd indicators also shows a new bullish cross in the hourly level while heading up as well in 4H charts. Note we have just seen mixed numbers from Australia he Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.6% against the steady 5.8% expectation though we fell short in the number of jobs generated as Employment Change read 9,100 consensus at 15,200 though still a reversal of the prior contraction. Given he data we prefer taking the buy side of AUDJPY on a push past 92.39 or a bounce off 91.92.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5966 minor / 1.5996 moderate / 1.6025 moderate
Support: 1.5918 minor / 1.5884 moderate / 1.5839 minor

Cable saw a big sell-off as hard economic data failed to confirm the optimism among managers with Manufacturing Production and Industrial Output contraction against the picture of growth from CIPS alowng with a worse than expected Trade balance. As a consequence of yesterdays sharp drop we are now back inside the daily EMA lines with stochastic crossing lower poised to reenter oversold areas and macd’s dropping. Price charts show lower highs and lower lows. Note this could be a confirmation of the weekly dark cloud cover. In 4H charts we are seeing mixed signals as price action suggests loss of momentum while stochastic comes off oversold areas and macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd heads up. Given the overall picture we prefer looking for shorts as we set out to confirm the weekly dark cloud cover. Look for shorts at the break of 1.5918.

Gold
Resistance: 1306.51 moderate / 1310.17 minor / 1315.94 moderate
Support: 1299.00 minor / 1294.51 moderate / 1290.71 moderate

Gold saw a sharp drop Wednesday following the spinning top in daily charts the previous day below the daily EMA lines. At the close we had a large black real body with new lows for the week and looking set fora test of the key support at 1277.07, 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from June lows. Daily indicators show macd’s flat with its signal line while stochastic is heading lower. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd and stochastic looking to cross higher. For now we prefer looking for a follow through bear market, our main objective the next day or so a sell-off to the swing lows at 1277.07. We can use a break of the immediate minor supportat 1299.00 which also means you’ve taken out the psychological 1300 area.

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October 9th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1321.92 moderate / 1328.41 moderate / 1335.14 moderate
Support: 1316.09 minor / 1313.67 moderate / 1293.15 minor

With Gold prices again just under the daily EMA lines we find ourselves unable to see a follow through to Mondays strong open. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for over bought levels along with a new bullish cross in MACD. From the 4H level we are seeing a confluence of bears as macd is in the process of crossing lower and heading back under the zeroline while stochastic is poised to push oversold. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s down. Note with a pattern of lower highs and lowers along with rejections from the EMA lines our preference is to look for shorts on a break of a support line.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9458 minor / 0.9483 moderate / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9413 moderate / 0.9375 moderate / 0.9354 minor

Aussy again saw new highs Tuesday though our close was disappointing given the inability to hold for a high wave spinning top in the daily charts. From indicators we have a new bullish crossover in the making out of the macd’s while daily stochastic is coming off overbought levels. The EMA lines are bullish with a steady ascent. In intraday charts we are seeing sell signals with stochastic bearish in both 4H and hourly time frames while macd has a new bearish crossover in the 4H level even as hourly macd has pushed back under the zero line. At the moment immediate risk calls for a break lower but with a moderate support from S1 at 0.9415 this may be difficult a test without an external catalyst. Take too long to break lower and we will call for buys of the said price around the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6124 minor / 1.6156 moderate / 1.6177 minor
Support: 1.6074 minor / 1.6048 minor / 1.6025 moderate

Tuesday saw Cable with a roller coaster ride initially selling off 1.6098 38.2 Fib retracement of its drop from last week only to close back up with a along tail in the daily charts. Note the initial sell-off saw GBPUSD down to the 21D EMA line allowing argue a big picture bounce. Indicators show stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to push back into overbought areas while macd is looking for a move backup above the zeroline. In hourly charts we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up with a new bullish crossover. For now we appear to have lost some steam in the earlier rally with a double top forming from hourly charts. We also have a slew of UK data Industrial Production and Manufacturing, Credit Conditions Survey and Trade Balance all set for release at 0830GMT. Given this we prefer remaining sidelined with a close under 1.6074 a bearish trip, as it triggers the hourly double top for 1.6028 projected lows.

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October 8th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 131.47 moderate / 131.64 moderate / 131.86 minor
Support: 131.13 minor / 130.97 moderate /130.62 moderate

EURJPY saw new lows in Monday trade after an earlier whipsaw was unable to hold the upside as equity markets dropped across the globe. Daily indicators now have a confluence of bears from the big picture with stochastic in oversold levels while macd has also just pushed below the zero line. In intraday charts we are seeing a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to push back into oversold levels from the 4H picture while macds are also dropping and are below zero. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is flat below the signal line. For the moment there is little sense of urgency though we prefer looking for shorts from under the daily pivot should he equity markets begin to falter further. Any close above 131.47 could alter the scenario for a technical bounce. Note we have a pattern of whipsaws where the lows kept getting lower along with the declining highs.

USDJPY
Resistance: 96.84 moderate / 97.05 moderate / 97.30 moderate
Support: 96.56 minor / 96.28 minor / 95.92 moderate

USDJPY started the week on very bearish footing with new lows from our rejection off the daily EMA lines last week while indicators suggests a continuation of our bear trend. Daily stochastic is pushing further into oversold areas while macd is heading lower and the EMA lines come-off dead crosses. In the 4H picture we have stochastic reentering oversold levels while macd has a new dead cross this given the bearish breakout from the previous candle. Hourly charts for their part are mixed as stochastic comes off oversold areas and macds drop while we see a series of spinning tops. For now the immediate view calls for a follow through sell-off from just under the 98.64 daily central pivot as equity markets continue to slide. Note that the longer we take to sell-off the greater the risk of a pullback, buys can also be taken on a close above 96.84 at the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9458 moderate / 0.9483 minor / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9420 minor / 0.9402 minor / 0.9375 moderate

After easing off early in Asian trade we eventually saw Aussy rally up in European trade to push for the swing highs at 0.9458 with daily indicators showing an overbought stochastic and macd’s seeing a new bullish cross as well. Note we are still looking for a follow through bounce off the 38.2 fib retracement for the September rally and have a valid inverted head and shoulder with 0.9590 as its pattern target. In the lower time-frames we have a mixed view in 4H charts with stochastic looking to push overbought and macds flat just under the signal line. Hourly charts for their has a confluence of buys with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macds poised at a new bullish crossover. Note we have Australian Job Advertisements and the Business Confidence figures up for release at 0030GMT with good reads likely to see us with some follow through rally.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6098 moderate / 1.6122 moderate / 1.6156 moderate
Support: 1.6074 moderate / 1.6049 minor / 1.6025 moderate

Cable saw a close just under the 38.2 Fib retracement of our sell-off from last weeks highs, a moderate resistance, this following a bounce of the 21DEMA. We turned out slightly short of the daily averages on lack of impetus monday. From indicators we are currently seeing a mixed signal from the daily charts as stochastic comes off oversold levels and macds are dropping. Note we continue to see good numbers out of the UK argument for strength in GBP. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys as macd crosses up while stochastic is pushing for overbought levels. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a bullish crosses and macd’s also heading up. for the moment our more immediate risk is fora bullish breakout. Coupled with good economic numbers we prefer looking for a break of 1.6098 as European markets open later and use the move as our entry.

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October 7th, 2013 @ 1:55 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9458 moderate/ 0.9486 minor / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9430 moderate / 0.9408 minor / 0.9388 minor

Aussy saw limited range Friday though still managing to set the highs for the previous week as it continues its bounce off the daily EMA lines and 38.2 Fib retracement level for the September rally from earlier the week past. Daily indicators now see a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas and macd’s a new bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic heads down and macd look’s up while price charts have been mixed though overall trend is bullish. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic overbought and macd heading down. Note we have a bank holiday in Australia though the AIG Construction Index was still released showing improvement yet remaining under 50. Given these for now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for a close above 0.9458 to confirm bullish interest in what could be a slow day.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6063 moderate / 1.6097 minor / 1.6122 moderate
Support: 1.6018 moderate / 1.5982 moderate / 1.5950 moderate

Cable turned out to be a ‘dark cloud cover’ in the weekly charts following Fridays sharp sell-off that added with Thursdays drop more than engulf the price action from earlier in the week. From indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping, we appear to have opened the week though a bullish gap bouncing off the 21D EMA. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signlas as 4H stochastic tries to come off oversold levels and macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in overbought areas while macds show a new bullish crossover. Given a bare calendar ahead and the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined until either side gives. Look for possible buys above the daily pivot 1.6063 or shorts on a push below the moderate support at 1.5983.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1316.09 minor / 1320.41 minor / 1325.36 moderate
Support: 1311.28 minor / 1302.14 moderate / 1295.31 minor

On the weekly close we have a bear candle in Gold though with a substantial looking tail and modest black body. We still saw the close under 23.6 Fib retracement of the sell-off from October 2012 highs and below the real body of the previous weekly candlesticks. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd flat below the signal. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic crossing highs and macd also looking up nearing a push past the zeroline. Hourly charts however see mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd also has a bullish crossover. Given the mixed view we prefer a straddle with buys above the immediate resistance at 1316.09 or sells under 1311.28 as we cover the minuscule gap at the open. Note any resolution of the US shutdown would likely see Gold charts tanking.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.12 moderate / 132.38 moderate / 132.77 moderate
Support: 131.64 moderate / 131.39 minor / 131.01 moderate

We have EURJPY opening with a bearish gap and in the process of getting a follow through bear market as we try to push under the daily EMA lines continuing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Other indicators has stochastic looking to push oversold while daily EMAs are also poised to push below the zero line, we also have prices under the daily pivot. In intrday charts we have 4H indicators poised to get a confluence of bears with macds already under zero and dropping while stochastic is looking for a bear cross of its own. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off over sold levels while macd has a new bear cross. For now we see little sense of urgency though over all bias is for the sell side, a break of 131.64 can be a bearish entry.

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