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Articles by Mark De La Paz

November 4th, 2013 @ 2:11 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9476 moderate / 0.9590 minor / 0.9526 moderate
Support: 0.9441 moderate / 0.9414 moderate / 0.9385 moderate

Aussy closed lower Friday though off the weeks trough, market however opened with a bullish gap ahead of expectations of a steady decision by the RBA in tomorrows rate announcement. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Intraday our bullish gap from the open has seen indicators higher. In the 4H scale we have stochastic and macd’s both in the process of crossing up with both also seeing bullish divergences. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s crossing higher. Note we also have Australian numbers coming out at 0030GMT with Retail Sales, Job Advertisements and House Price Index as potential catalyst for further gains should the figures turnout firmly. Consider buys on a strong read for 0.9526. Poor numbers risks us covering the gap from our open.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.2454 minor / 1.4310 minor / 1.4334 minor
Support: 1.4225 moderate / 1.4179 moderate / 1.4125 strong

EURAUD saw a bearish gap at the open of Welling ton markets following through the sell-off from late last week. Note both Euro and Aussy are weaker against the greenback though the former appears to be taking the brunt against the majors. We have just seen strong Retail Sales numbers, an excuse for a follow through bear market. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is poised to cross lower and already under the zero line. In the 4H level we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part also has stochastic in oversold levels and macd’s with a new bear cross. Given the earlier response to Aussy data and over all trends we are looking forward for the next downleg a push under 1.4213 may be seen as a bearish entry for 1.4160 projected low and 1.4125 the key support levels.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.42 moderate / 133.63(69) moderate / 134.02 minor
Support: 133.12 moderate / 132.58 moderate / 132.17 moderate

As with many Euro pairs we saw a weekly engulfing candle in EURJPY while also triggering a double top for the price action in the previous two weeks. This in-turn forming the second top of an even bigger double top. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also heading lower. From the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s bottoming. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing up with macd also poised to push up through the zero line. Look for a scaled entry from 133.42 and 133.69 our objective to complete the bigger double top with triggers at 131.51.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3538 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3603 minor
Support: 1.3495 minor / 1.3460 strong / 1.3420 moderate

The past week saw a big sell-off for the Euro with the weekly candle a bearish engulfing that covered to bullish weekly candles before it. With recent data showing signs of a pick up in the unemployment rate and weak inflation numbers markets are speculating for another liquidity injection by Mario Draghi. From the charts we have stochastic in oversold levels while daily macd is looking to push under the zero line though we face a key support at the 1.3460 area. In the 4H level we have stochastic crawling oversold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd just crossing up as prices come out of a tight congestion with a double bottom from 1.3495. Despite this we prefer looking for a push below 1.3460 as a signal for further weakness. Alternatively consider shorts off 1.3568.

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November 1st, 2013 @ 1:51 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3600 minor / 1.3632 moderate / 1.3689 moderate
Support: 1.3549 minor / 1.3526 moderate / 1.3590 moderate

Euro turned out to be Thursday’s big loser with the daily candle almost tuning out as a marubozu the daily close under 34D EMA despite starting things above the 21d EMA. Note we have doubled average daily ranges yesterday with the bear market down driven by speculations of easing pressure for the ECB as data underscored a weak labor market and deflationary rather than inflation risks. Among indicators we have daily stochastsic in oversold areas while macd has a bear cross. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic pushing further into oversold areas and macd’s dropping. Hourly charts has a flat macd while stochastic is seeing a new bear cross. Consider shorts at market the immediate objective at 1.3526 though we are looking for a test of the 1.3500 area.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.4376 minor / 1.4417 moderate / 1.4460 moderate Support: 1.4333 minor / 1.4296 moderate / 1.4265 moderate

Along with the broad based Euro sell-off we have EURAUD with a huge drop Thursday forming a ‘three inside down’ pattern in the daily candle stick charts. Note the rejection comes off a congestion resistance from early October while indicators has stochastic heading lower and macd’s beginning to top off. At the moment we are trying to push clear through the daily EMA lines. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is dropping and price action suggests a bearish continuation pattern is in the making. Hourly charts for its part has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is flat above the signal line. given all this bias will be for the sell side of the market with shorts off 1.4376 as the preferred entry though a close under 1.4333 may also be seen as a sell signal.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9476 minor / 0.9496 minor / 0.9520 moderate
Support: 0.9440 moderate / 0.9414 minor / 0.9388 moderate

Aussy closed Thursday around the days lows though failing to push under the lows of our high wave candlestick. Daily indicators continue to see stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are inside the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys as 4H stochastic looks to come off oversold levels while macd is beginning to open up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing overbought while macd also has a new bullish crossover. Earlier releases are supportive of a firmer Aussy with Chinese PMI better than expected at 51.4 while Australian PPI shot higher than consensus at 1.3% against the 0.4% median expectation. With this, our price charts, and a long weekend in Europe we are likely to see some consolidation with Aussy set to test the highs from yesterday. Consider a buy on dips off 0.9440.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1328.32 moderate / 1336.72 minor / 1342.00 minor
Support: 1318.74 moderate / 1310.02 moderate /1304.95 minor

Gold saw a sell-off Thursday as the FOMC’s statements were seen as less dovish with prospects of tapering off in June rising. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has topped off. Note we have a rejection from the 61.8 fib retracement of the August to October sell-off with the fractal pattern from earlier in the week leading to the drop below the EMA lines. In the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts are also mixed with macd bottoming out and stochastic crossing lower. Look for a close below 1318.74 on an hourly basis to signal follow through weakness.

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October 31st, 2013 @ 2:12 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8267 minor / 0.8287 moderate / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8228 moderate / 0.8191 moderate / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday with lows easing to 0.8183, previous false breakout lows in the congestion from late September to early October, only to close with a hammer in the daily charts and long tail. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are still dropping. Note our hammer is bouncing off a previous congestion floor and 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in bothe 4H and hourly picture stochastic for both are seeing new bear crosses after failing to push overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators for its part is pointing higher for both, though also under the zero line. Given the hammer and supports our preference is for a buy on dips to the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.8228.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8267 minor / 0.8287 moderate / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8228 moderate / 0.8191 moderate / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday with lows easing to 0.8183, previous false breakout lows in the congestion from late September to early October, only to close with a hammer in the daily charts and long tail. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are still dropping. Note our hammer is bouncing off a previous congestion floor and 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in both 4H and hourly picture stochastic for both are seeing new bear crosses after failing to push overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators for its part is pointing higher for both, though also under the zero line. Given the hammer and supports our preference is for a buy on dips to the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.8228.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6038 moderate / 1.6077 moderate / 1.6114 moderate
Support: 1.6000 psychological / 1.5957 minor / 1.5918 moderate

Cable saw a high wave candle Wednesday to suggest that bearish momentum is faltering as we form a daily double top. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are inside the EMA lines. From the the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals consistent with a high wave daily candlestick. The 4H stochastic is heading lower as macd’s see a new bullish cross while hourly charts has stochastic heading up and macd bottoming out. For now we see little sense of urgency in Cable with the high wave candle merely serving as a warning signal, given the absence of a big external catalyst we prefer playing the extremes. Consider shorts on rallies to 1.6077, 1.6114 or buys off 1.5957, 1.5918.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3738 moderate / 1.3780 moderate / 1.3811 minor
Support: 1.3718c minor / 1.3692 moderate / 1.3669 moderate

As with many of the majors we have a high wave candle in Euro daily charts as bulls and bears read what they wanted from the FOMC statement. Big picture we still view Euro as a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the monthly sell-off from 2011 with the daily fractals objective still untouched the 21D EMA at 1.3669. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is at risk of a bear cross. Intraday we have mixed signals in the hourly picture with stochastic crossing up and macd’s under zero and below the signal line. In the 4H level we are bearish as stochastic crosses lower once more and macd’s are dropping. It appears that markets look indecisive in the near term despite your big picture. As such we prefer a sell on rallies to yesterdays highs or buy on dips from the 21D EMA.

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October 30th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3751 minor / 1.3772 moderate / 1.3793 minor
Support: 1.3703 moderate / 1.3688 minor / 1.3663 moderate

Euro saw a follow through bear market to its Monday fractal with Tuesdays daily close around its lows. This reinforces the notion of a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off in the weekly charts from May 2011. Among indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower while macd is also poised at a bearish crossover, we are looking at market action as mean reversion with the 21D EMA at 1.3663 as our objective. In intraday charts we have sell signals with stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also bearish for the 4H picture. Hourly charts as well points lower with a new bear cross in stochastic joining a bearish macd. For now we prefer shorting with markets in the process of getting a further down-leg a close under 1.3737 may be seen as a bearish entry though we prefer shorts off 1.3751.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6070 moderate / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6017 moderate / 1.5998 moderate / 1.5955 moderate

Tuesday saw a huge sell-off in Cable finally taking out the congestion floor from the previous weeks range play. This pushing GBPUSD well into forming a double top pattern with its trigger around 1.5918, 23.6 Fib retracement of the rally from July lows. Indicators show a confluence of bears as we get a new bear cross in macd while stochastic has pushed into oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears in the 4H picture as stochastic crawls oversold levels while macd is below the zero line and dropping. Hourly charts for their part suggests a new bearish entry with stochastic just crossing lower failing to push overbought in consolidation mode though macd has a new bullish cross. For now we prefer a more cautious approach at joining the bear market waiting for a break of 1.6017, a moderate support. Alternative entry will be a rejection from the daily pivot at 1.6070.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9487 moderate / 0.9508 moderate / 0.9544 moderate
Support: 0.9453 minor / 0.9417 moderate / 0.9388 minor

Following Gov. Stevens statement over the currency early Tuesday, we have AUDUSD with a big sell-off almost a bearish marubozu in the daily picture. For the moment we are in the process of pushing under the 34D EMA with prices already in the midst of your daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is also dropping sharply. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping below the zero line. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic looking to push back into oversold areas while macd are technically bullish above the signal line though under zero. At this point we are looking for further weakness a push under 0.9453 could be seen as a bearish entry though, alternatively we may also use a rejection off 0.9487. Note we are looking forward to atleast testing the 55D EMA at around 0.9409 though we have 0.9283 as our objective in the near term.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8271 moderate / 0.8313 minor / 0.8331 minor
Support: 0.8228 strong / 0.8191 minor / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi is at the congestion floor of the September range play, incidentally 38.2 Fib retracement of the August to October rally. Note we view this support as critical a push below it could pave the way for a sharp sell-off if under the context of a bubble imploding in the property market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is poised to push under the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at the signal line trying to bottom out. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold while macd is above the signal line. For now look for a break of the 0.8228 region to trigger a bear market possibly for the psychological 0.8000.

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October 28th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8303 moderate / 0.8333 moderate /0.8359 moderate
Support: 0.8272 minor / 0.8247 moderate / 0.8228 moderate

Kiwi saw a sharp sell-off last week with sustained losses taking within distance of the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the September rally. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are already inside the daily EMA’s having crossed 21D and 34D EMA previously while 55D EMA is right around the 38.2 Fib at 0.8228.In the 4H picture we have stochastic oscillating around the oversold threshold indicative of a bear trend along with the bearish macd’s. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to go overbought and macd’s bullish through prices have been consolidating. With the holiday in New Zealand we see little sense of urgency but proximity to the daily pivot at 0.8303 we are looking for a rejection, a sell-off to the the 38.2 fib at 0.8228, also the 55DEMA.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9600 minor / 0.9623 moderate / 0.9643 moderate
Support: 0.9569 moderate / 0.9534 moderate / 0.9500 psychological

Aussy has seen confused price action since Thursday high wave doji, with Friday seeing minimal ranges to underscore the potential change in trend. That said we have yet to see the daily EMA lines, while indicators are still bearish with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s getting a new bear cross. From the lower time-frames we are seeing the indecision underscored by stochastic crossing and a bearish 4H macd even as we have hourly stochastic barely staying overbought at risk of a bear cross even as macd’s have followed up. For now we retain a bullish medium term view for the Aussy given improved external conditions while policy changes on the fiscal side is also seen boosting the domestic economy. The preferred course of action remains to be a buy on dips to the 21D EMA at 0.9534.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6187 moderate / 1.6213 minor / 1.6238 minor
Support: 1.6155 minor / 1.6215 moderate / 1.6096 moderate

Cable spent the past week in a range play though we have a double top forming over the last six weeks, the second top made out of our range play. Daily indicators has mixed signals with stochastic coming out of overbought levels while macd is flat above the signal line. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing up while macd is below the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s also crossing up. Despite the big picture double top in the making it appears GBPUSD is likely to continue with the ranging action for the past week until we see an external catalyst. Still we prefer a sell on rallies off the 1.6260 region. Take too long to push higher and we may consider shorts off the daily pivot at 1.6187.

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October 16th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3536 minor / 1.3570 minor / 1.3600 moderate
Support: 1.3506 minor / 1.3482 moderate / 1.3460 moderate

Euro saw more than its daily averages yesterday with a bearish daily candle for a close as we find prices back under the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower while macd’s are also dropping. Note we remain inside the congestion for the past month, waiting for a catalyst to push through our floors. From the lower time frames we are seeing an indecisive combination of signals with 4H macd’s down and stochastic heading up. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd’s up. Given the broader picture we prefer taking the sell side of Euro following a break of 1.3507, an hourly close below 1.3482 could spark the next big down leg.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1281.28 minor / 1288.15 minor / 1294.41 moderate
Support: 1274.19 minor / 1266.59 moderate / 1260.86 minor

Gold continues to discount the possibility of a default by the US with Tuesday price action seeing bears drag Gold charts to new lows as we continue to ease beneath the the 61.8 fib retracement level of the rally from June 28. Note we ended up with along tail for a high wave spinning top in the daily charts potentially defining the bottom of our bear trend. Daily indicators has macd’s dropping while stochastic is coming off oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators stochastic and macd, the former pushing for overbought levels. Hourly charts has stochastic at risk of seeing oversold levels while macd is above the signal line. Given the nearing deadline over raising the US debt ceiling we risk haven plays as any solution remains elusive.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9547 moderate / 0.9600 minor / 0.9620 minor
Support: 0.9516 minor / 0.9498 minor / 0.9484 moderate

Tuesday has Aussy ending the day above the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from April with indicators showing a confluence of buys the daily stochastic back in overbought areas while macd has a new bullish cross, the combination suggesting we are ready for the next surged up. Note yesterdays push effectively invalidates the idea of forming a double top. From the 4H picture we are currently seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up though the latest candlesticks suggests we are looking to push past our congestion ceiling with a bullish engulfing. From the hourly picture we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic poised to cross lower and macd’s up. We do not see any sense of urgency from our charts as such we prefer remaining sidelined for now though a close above 0.9547 should open the way for further gains.

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October 11th, 2013 @ 1:57 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3546 minor / 1.3585 minor / 1.3607 minor
Support: 1.3519 moderate / 1.3486 minor / 1.3463 moderate

Thursday turned out to be a consolidation with attempts to get a follow through bear market thwarted by the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we continue to have sell signals with stochastic looking to push oversold on the daily scale while macd is also bearish. Note we have prices just around the 21D EMA and barely above the daily pivot. From the lower time-frames we have triggered a double-bottom in 4H charts while signals are mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd in the process of crossing up. hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to cross lower and macd technically above the signal line though barely so. Given the mixed intraday picture good supports and bearish daily signals we prefer remaining sidelined. We need an external catalyst for sustained price action, a follow through rally in equity markets could push us off the EMA lines or a resolution in the US debt-ceiling and government shut could drive us clear through the EMA lines.

Gold
Resistance: 1294.51 moderate / 1300.00 minor / 1305.61 moderate
Support: 1282.58 moderate / 1275.27 moderate / 1267.63 moderate

Gold saw a follow through sell-off late in New York markets as we continue the pattern of lower highs, hoping for a lower low. We once again find gold around the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our rally from June. Daily indicators show stochastic pushing oversold while the macd indicator is also dropping. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s dropping though candlesticks has a dragonfly doji. Hourly charts for heir part has macd bottoming out and stochastic off oversold levels. We appear to have an ongoing pullback, for now look for the current bounce to stabilize around the 1294.51 area with a subsequent distribution a signal for us to take the sell side. Consider a scaled entry from 1294.51 hen on from 1300.00 and R1 of pivots at 1305.61.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.30 moderate / 133.56 minor / 133.94 minor
Support: 132.94 minor / 132.52 moderate / 132.08 moderate

EURJPY managed to rally past our bearish trend-line likely breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows from mid September. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for over bought levels while macd is in the process of crossing up even as we find yesterdays bounce completely pushing past the daily EMA lines. In the lower time-frames we have 4H charts with a confluence of buys, as stochastic crawls in overbought levels and macd is rising with price action showing along tail. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic reentering overbought levels and macd’s beginning to pickup. For now immediate risk seems to be for further gains, however given the extent of our rally from yesterday we prefer waiting for the European open ad sign weakness in European equities could easily see EURJPY change course.

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October 10th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9464 minor / 0.9483 moderate / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9441 moderate / 0.9412 moderate / 0.9378 moderate

Aussy charts are beginning to show indecisive price action with another narrow real body a doji for Wednesday’s candle though over all trend remains bullish still in search for he next higher high with our long tails. Daily indicators for their part has stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd itself is crossing up. Note we risk forming a double top with the loss of momentum though data at 0030GMT could see us on the move again. We have Australian jobs number consensus forecast for the Unemployment Rate at 5.8% and Employment Change expected to show 15200 new jobs. In the lower timeframes we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up and macd’s down in 4H charts while hourly indicators has stochastic heading lower and mac’sup. Given data releases we plan on straddling Aussy just before the release.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 92.39 moderate / 92.75 minor / 93.05 minor
Support: 91.92 minor / 91.66 minor / 91.32 minor

We have had AUDJPY in a range play for the last two weeks though price action from Tuesday till yesterday suggests an attempt at a bullish breakout is once more in progress. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push into overbought levels macd is also looking for a bullish cross, currently we have prices once more above the daily EMA lines following yesterdays surge to the congestion resistances. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with the stochastic indicators for both hourly and 4H charts looking to push overbought. The macd indicators also shows a new bullish cross in the hourly level while heading up as well in 4H charts. Note we have just seen mixed numbers from Australia he Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.6% against the steady 5.8% expectation though we fell short in the number of jobs generated as Employment Change read 9,100 consensus at 15,200 though still a reversal of the prior contraction. Given he data we prefer taking the buy side of AUDJPY on a push past 92.39 or a bounce off 91.92.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5966 minor / 1.5996 moderate / 1.6025 moderate
Support: 1.5918 minor / 1.5884 moderate / 1.5839 minor

Cable saw a big sell-off as hard economic data failed to confirm the optimism among managers with Manufacturing Production and Industrial Output contraction against the picture of growth from CIPS alowng with a worse than expected Trade balance. As a consequence of yesterdays sharp drop we are now back inside the daily EMA lines with stochastic crossing lower poised to reenter oversold areas and macd’s dropping. Price charts show lower highs and lower lows. Note this could be a confirmation of the weekly dark cloud cover. In 4H charts we are seeing mixed signals as price action suggests loss of momentum while stochastic comes off oversold areas and macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd heads up. Given the overall picture we prefer looking for shorts as we set out to confirm the weekly dark cloud cover. Look for shorts at the break of 1.5918.

Gold
Resistance: 1306.51 moderate / 1310.17 minor / 1315.94 moderate
Support: 1299.00 minor / 1294.51 moderate / 1290.71 moderate

Gold saw a sharp drop Wednesday following the spinning top in daily charts the previous day below the daily EMA lines. At the close we had a large black real body with new lows for the week and looking set fora test of the key support at 1277.07, 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from June lows. Daily indicators show macd’s flat with its signal line while stochastic is heading lower. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd and stochastic looking to cross higher. For now we prefer looking for a follow through bear market, our main objective the next day or so a sell-off to the swing lows at 1277.07. We can use a break of the immediate minor supportat 1299.00 which also means you’ve taken out the psychological 1300 area.

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