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Articles by Mark De La Paz

January 10th, 2014 @ 1:35 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3623 moderate / 1.3656 moderate / 1.3677 minor
Support: 1.3596 moderate / 1.3560 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

We once again find Euro just under the daily EMA lines and daily double top breakout point as Thursday failed to see a follow to the prior day’s drop. Note we basically consolidated for much of the first full weekof trading in 2014 though we do have lower highs and lower lows inside this consolidation. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is heading lower, now under the zero line. We look forward to daily stochastic oscillating around 20. Intraday we actually have a double bottom in 4H charts while indicators show a confluence of buys with new bullish crossovers for both stochastic and macd. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up. We see little sense of urgency for taking action though preference is toshort on a close below the pivot,1.3596, or should we have long wicks in the hourly charts sticking through the resistances.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9094 moderate / 0.9125 moderate / 0.9150 minor
Support: 0.9061 minor / 0.9045 moderate / 0.9026 moderate

Thursday saw USDCHF with a bearish engulfing pattern suggesting we look to pull back to the daily EMA lines after we saw a follow through rally to the surge up above 55D EMA monday. Among indicators we have stochastic coming-off over bought levels though daily macd’s remain bullish after pushing through zero Tuesday. In the lower time frames we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish macd and stochastic staying just above the oversold threshold likely to oscillate around the said area as we look for the next shoe to fall. Note despite the bearish looking charts we risk seeing a bounce in USDCHF as we have US jobs numbers set for release with risks calling for a strong read, possibly going into the mid 200K’s.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6502 moderate / 1.6531 minor / 1.6577 minor
Support: 1.6471 moderate / 1.6448 moderate / 1.6406 moderate

Thursday saw Cable with a follow through bounce off the daily EMA lines as cable continue to buck the trend of a stronger dollar with UK economic numbers turning out strong as well. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up inline with our bounce off the EMA’s while macd is flat just below the signal line. Note despite the focus on NFP from the US we also have metrics out of the UK later, with Manufacturing and Industrial Production expected to turnout at 0.4% to underscore the UK’sown growth story. In the lower time frames we have mixed signal but a bullish bias as stochastic is in the process of crossing up in 4H charts while macd is bullish. Hourly charts has macd’s trying to clear off the signal line heading up while stochastic is dropping. For now we remain sidelined though we will consider buying at the open of European markets should we stay above the pivot.

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January 9th, 2014 @ 1:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8916 moderate / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8951 minor
Support: 0.8881 moderate / 0.8842 moderate / 0.8822 moderate

Wednesday saw the Aussy easing off to close just above its lows with prices now in the middle of its consolidation from December. Daily indicators has stochastic heading down through macd is above the signal line though flattening and below zero. Note we have prices just above S1 from the pivots, recall the RBA’s wish price of 0.8500. For the moment we will be looking at Retail Sales and building approval figures due 0030GMT for a possible catalyst with weak numbers reinforcing the sell side. Consensus forecastis at 0.5% and -0.9% respectively. In intraday charts we areseeing argument for remaining bearish as both hourly and 4H charts push into oversold levels while the macd is also heading lower for both time frames. For now we are looking for a break of the 0.8881 level as a bearish entry with poor data as catalyst. Alternative entry will be coming for 0.8916, better 0.8935.

USDJPY
Resistance: 105.00 moderate / 105.24 minor / 105.43 moderate
Support: 104.72 moderate / 104.44 moderate / 104.17 moderate

USDJPY saw a further bounce off the daily EMA lines Wednesday though we are getting closer once more to the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from 2007, 105.57. From indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up while macd is heading lower. At this point we are concerned about markets getting inured about talk of doubling the money base, we need new catalyst. In the lower time frames we have stochastic heading lower in 4H charts while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s dropping and stochastic pointing higher. Given the proximity of 105.57,and the lack of fresh incentive we are looking for a possible rejection as we approach the said price point. Consider adopting a sell on rallies forming a double top in the daily charts.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6473 moderate / 1.6500 minor / 1.6531 minor
Support: 1.6431 moderate / 1.6396 moderate / 1.6374 minor

Cable managed to finally hold on to gains off a bounce from the 21D EMA following two days of high wave candles at the said region. This is consistent with our broader bullish trend of daily higher highs and higher lows as the economy continue to show signs of maintaining its gains. Among indicators we are seeing a mixed signal for the moment with stochastic crossing higher while macd is heading down. In the lower time frames we are seeing continued indecision with 4H stochastic crossing lower failing to push overbought while macd is looking to push further up through the zero line. Hourly charts are similarly mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s heading lower. Our preference will be a buy on dips to the 21DEMA, 1.6396, alternative entry will be a push through the the 1.6473 region. Buys off the daily pivot at 1.6431 may also be considered during the European open.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 172.84 moderate / 173.04 minor / 173.69 moderate
Support: 172.27 moderate / 171.72 moderate / 131.730 moderate

Following a piercing pattern Tuesday we have GBPJPY with a further rally yesterday looking set for a push to the swing highs at 174.82 in the coming days. Note from a fundamental perspective we have argument for a stronger Cable out of good UK economic conditions and Japanese policy weakening the yen. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up while macd is bearish. We are following through the bounce from the bullish daily EMA’s. In the lower time frames we have a mixed view with 4H stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd has just pushed up through the zero line. Candlesticks themselves have higher highs and higher lows after every pause. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading up and dropping towards the zero line. At the moment we are just above the daily pivot at 172.27, consider buys off the said price during the European open.

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January 8th, 2014 @ 1:29 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3622 moderate / 1.3656 moderate / 1.3677 minor
Support: 1.3596 minor / 1.3571 minor / 1.3527 moderate

Euro managed to close below the daily EMA lines and remain under the double to break out point from our charts after a whip sawish trading day that saw prices push for 34D EMA highs first. Daily indicators has stochastic around the over sold threshold at risk of oscillating around the number while macd is down looking to head under the zero line. We continue to look for a follow through to last weeks bearish engulfing rejection off the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our 2011 sell-off. Intraday we have a mixed view as 4H stochastic drops and macd’s head up for the zeroline. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading up while macd remains bearish. Given the big picture we prefer looking for shorts the immediate objective take out the weeks lows at 1.3571 for a drop for the 1.3527 region.

AUSDUSD
Resistance: 0.8935 moderate / 0.8972 moderate / 0.9004 moderate
Support: 0.8910 moderate / 0.8889 moderate / 0.8868 minor

Tuesday saw Aussy finally getting a rejection from the daily EMA lines to close back inside the consolidation for much of December. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower for the daily picture while macd is heading up with an earlier release, the Construction Index faltering to 50.8 from 55.2 to underscore the slowdown in growth and the RBA’s concerns. Recall we still have the RBA with an unofficial target for the Aussie at 0.8500, a level they will be happy with though not taking measures for. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with 4h stochastic heading up and macd’s down while hourly indicators could see us develop a confluence of bears with stochastic dropping andmacd at risk of a its own bear cross. With the daily close we prefer looking for shorts though false breakouts in intraday charts suggest we need an hourly close under 0.8910 to be confident of sustained weakness.

USDJPY
Resistance: 104.82 moderate / 105.14 minor / 105.43 moderate
Support: 104.49 minor / 104.17 moderate / 103.91 minor

USDJPY saw a piercing pattern with yesterdays close seeing us bouncee off the 21D EMA. From indicators we are seeing a mixed view with daily stochastic trying to cross up while macd is bearish. Note we face a dilemma from USDJPY big picture as the monthly charts show us testing a key resistance, 61.8 Fib of the sell-off from 2007. Policy wise we continue to have the BOJ with its goal of doubling the money base a catalyst for eventually pushing past 105.57. In the 4H picture we have macd’s with a bullish crossover and stochastic bullish though at risk of crossing lower should price action falter. Hourly charts are generally bullish with stochastic likely to oscillate around 80 while macd is heading up. For now we appear to have lost momentum from the price action but a close above R1 n pivots at 104.82 could be sen as a bullish entry though we caution against looking for a surge past the key 105.57 area, 61.8 Fib retracement level of the 2007 sell-off.

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January 7th, 2014 @ 2:19 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3652 moderate / 1.3677 minor / 1.3717 moderate
Support: 1.3617 moderate / 1.3582 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

Monday saw a technical correction with prices pulling back to the previous double top breakout point from our daily charts. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also heading lower suggesting we look for a follow through still to Fridays pattern breakout. Note we have the daily EMA’s right on top of the market. In the lower time frames we are seeing a mixed view from 4H charts with stochastic just crossing up while macd is poised at a bear cross. Hourkly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd seeing a new bearish crossover. Given the big picture pattern and EMA lines our preference is to look for a bearish breakout. Consider selling a push below the daily pivot at 1.3617, our objective to ease down to the psychological 1.3500 area.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6433 minor / 1.6473 moderate / 1.6500 psychological
Support: 1.6349 moderate / 1.6320 moderate / 1.6258 moderate

Monday saw Cable with a high wave candle with tails pushing all the way down to the 34D EMA. Daily indicators show a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to push oversold and macd seeing a new bear cross, though again prices are just above the EMA lines now. We are currently triggering a double top in hourly charts. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s bottoming out below zero in the 4h picture. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence and a new cross lower while macd is above the signal line. given the on going double top breakout immediate risk is for a bear market. Though we prefer looking for buys coming off the 1.6349 region, S1 in pivots.

Gold
Resistance: 1246.33 minor / 1253.63 moderate / 1264.90 moderate
Support: 1235.30 moderate / 1226.80 minor / 1219.23 moderate

At the close we have gold with a high wave candle suggesting a loss of momentum from its daily double bottom breakout. Currently we have prices inside the daily EMA lines and above the daily pivot with stochastic in overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic bullish in 4H charts and macds seeing a new bear cross. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s dropping. There appears to be no sense of urgency in getting anywhere though we have an attractive resistance at 1253.63, where we have previous congestion highs and the 55D EMA. Consider buys coming off the daily pivot, 1235.30, for a test of the 55D EMA.

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January 6th, 2014 @ 1:54 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3619(23) moderate / 1.3659 moderate / 1.3717 moderate
Support: 1.2582 minor / 1.3555 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

Euro saw a double top triggered in the daily charts Friday, pushing through EMA lines and closing under the 55D EMA to form the second top of a weekly scale double top pattern. This may be seen as a follow through to the rejection off 1.3832, 61.8 Fib retracement level of the Sell-off from 2011 highs. Indicators has daily stochastic pushing into oversold areas while macd is also dropping. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals for now following the weekend break with prices just under the daily central pivot. We have 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for theirpart has stochastic coming off oversold levels heading up and macd with a bullish crossover. We prefer looking for better pricing with shorts off 1.3623, pattern trigger and roughly 55D EMA. Alternative entry will be a break of the 1.3582 area, Fridays lows.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9059 minor / 0.9094 moderate / 0.9125 moderate
Support: 0.9027(33) moderate / 0.8988 moderate / 0.8967 minor

The swiss franc saw a strong close last week with a weekly scale bullish engulfing off its bounce from the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 2011. The move has seen us triggering a daily double bottom with prices now above the daily EMA’s with the close near its highs, well above the 55D EMA. With the break we now have stochastic pushing into overbought areas and macd poised to push up through the zero line as well. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the overbought threshold while macd is rising to underscore a bullish trend. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a bearish divergence and macd a bear cross as well. We do not see a sense of urgency, this being the case we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the 0.9027(33) area possibly 55D EMA at 0.9017 though a push past 0.9059 will also be seen as a bullish entry.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1241.54 minor / 1247.96 minor / 1253.63 moderate
Support: 1232.80 moderate / 1226.80 minor / 1219.23 moderate

Gold saw a strong from last week as we bounce following its worst year since 1981. At the open of the new year we triggered a double bottom coming off the 1180 lows and possibly forming a second bottom in the weekly charts given the long tails. From indicators we have stochastic pushing further into overbought areas as macd’s also head up for the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4h stochastic reentering overbought areas to signal a bullish trend as macd’s for their part are already above zero and heading up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic crossing up and macd’s heading lower. Look for a push through Friday highs as a bullish entry or a bounce off the daily pivot. Our objective will be a run toward the 55DEMA.

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December 17th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8945 minor / 0.8969(70) moderate / 0.9007 moderate
Support: 0.8921 minor / 0.8890 moderate / 0.8845 moderate

Aussy saw a slow start for the week continuing Friday’s consolidation ahead of today’s release of the latest RBA minutes. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears still with stochastic remaining oversold and macd’s remaining under zero and seeing a new bear cross. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic heading lower and macd’s crossing up. Hourly charts for their part is oversold though macd is flat just under the zero line. At this point we retain a bearish bias though key will be what’s in the RBA’s minutes. With the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector, a budget deficit blowing out, and the commodity super-cycle turning pressure is mounting for the RBA to step in. We will be looking for argument for either direct intervention from the minutes or aggressive policy easing to contain developing internal risk.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3768 moderate / 1.3789 minor / 1.3810 moderate
Support: 1.3738 moderate / 1.3709 moderate / 1.3677 moderate

After breaking higher in European midday trade we saw the single currency pullback down through R1 to see a long wick for the daily candle though also retaining a good size real body. Still we have a lower high once more in the big picture reinforcing the notion of a top. From indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s climbing. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic heading lower with macd’s just under the zero line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bear cross while macd is dropping. We have already jumped short in EURUSD with the objecting of eventually getting to the daily EMA lines currently, 21D EMA is at 1.6359. Note all our indicators are bearish we have lower highs in the daily chart, and we could be forming the second peak of a weekly scale double top pattern.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6311 minor / 1.6347 moderate / 1.6372 minor
Support: 1.6262(74) moderate / 1.6231 moderate / 1.6195 minor

Cable saw a long wick at the close as attempts to push back inside the daily top trigger failed to gain traction. Among indicators we have daily stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is also heading lower though prices for now are just above the daily EMA lines. Note we have an active double top to work with. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is flat trying to cross through the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking to push overbought and macd’s poised for its own bullish crossover. At the moment we are not in a position to take immediate action though we prefer shorting from the 1.6347 area or on a push under 1.6274.

Gold
Resistance: 1251.76 moderate / 1256.89 minor / 1263.26 minor
Support: 1239.82 moderate / 1233.30 minor / 1228.31 moderate

At the close we have a high wave candle for gold prices testing the daily EMA lines in New York trade though failing to hold given the broadly firmer dollar and all the talk for a taper. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic seeing a new bullish cross and macd’s heading up to the zero line. Price charts themselves have formed a double bottom though the EMA lines are right on top of current levels. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with 4H charts showing a bearish divergence in stochastic and bullish macd while hourly’s have the opposite with a bullish stochastic and new bear cross in macd. Given the overall trend and the presence of the EMA’s we prefer a sell on rallies off yesterdays high at 1251.76. Alternative entry will be on a close below 1239.82.

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December 16th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 103.37 moderate / 103.76 minor / 103.92 minor
Support: 102.97 moderate / 102.66 moderate / 102.37 minor

In the end we have a false breakout in USDJPY Friday with a long wick to form a shooting star in the daily charts suggesting pullback risk. Daily indicators has stochastic oscillating just under 80 while macd has already topped off crossing lower with mean reversion a possibility. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic in waiting to push oversold in 4H charts while macd has crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish stochastic with macd looking to ease under the zero line. At this point we may be forming a tripple top in the daily charts with the long daily wick indicative of bulls pulling back. Look for a push below 102.97 in European trade to get the bears going. Alternative entry will be coming off the 103.37 daily pivot, note we risk a false breakout above the said price.

EURJPY
Resistance: 142.02 moderate / 142.20 minor / 142.62 moderate
Support: 141.43 moderate / 141.22 moderate / 140.98 moderate

As with USDJPY we have long wick for the daily chart in EURJPY possibly defining the second high of a daily top. On an even bigger picture the weekly close is a shooting star following a break early in the week of the 140.98 61.8 Fibretracement level of the sell-off from 2008. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is topping out. From the lower timeframes we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic crossed up while macd sees a new bear cross. Hourly charts are the opposite with a new bullish crossover in macd and bearish stochastic. At this point we have very little conviction in the market despite a huge potential from a weekly shooting star. We prefer looking for a close under 140.98 on a daily scale before taking big trades. For intraday trades consider shorts of 142.02 at the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8963 moderate / 0.9000 psychological / 0.9031 minor
Support: 0.8909 minor / 0.8890 moderate / 0.8845 strong

Friday turned out to be a consolidation day for Aussy following two sharp drops in the daily charts with the close turning out to be a spinning top. Indicators however continue to be bearish with daily macd’s now crossing lower and stochastic easing down to oversold areas suggesting we look for a test of the key support at 0.8845. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised at a beasr cross while macd is flat below the signal line and under zero. Hourly charts for their part has macd looking to cross lower while stochastic is oversold. We have seen prices eased through the daily pivot at 0.894. Along with the bearish big picture we are now looking for prices to ease down to the key support level at 0.8845. Note we have Chinese flash manufacturing PMI at 0145GMT a possible catalyst for movement.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3762 moderate / 1.3790 minor / 1.3810 moderate
Support: 1.3710 minor / 1.3690 moderate / 1.3650 moderate

Euro turned out to be a high wave candle as we saw a bounce in New York trade for long shadows in the daily charts. Note we still had a bearish body and can view things as a confirmation for the daily fractal. On the weekly close we do have a shooting star suggesting a second peak has been formed for a double top pattern. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off overbought level while macd is heading up. Intraday we have a bearish macd with stochastic poised to see a bearish crossover from the 4H picture though we also have a piercing pattern. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic reentering overbought levels while macd is heading up. Immediate risk calls for a possible retest of the highs at 1.3810 though we would still look for a top and shorts around the area with stops above 1.3832.

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December 13th, 2013 @ 2:19 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3764 moderate / 1.3790 minor / 1.3810 minor
Support: 1.3736 moderate / 1.3690 moderate / 1.3660 minor

Euro turned out to be a fractal in the daily charts following the failure to push for the previous swing highs at 1.3832. wednesday. We now have daily stochastic coming off oversold areas with the close a bearish engulfing for Thursday reinforcing the notion of a near term top. Note we risk forming a shooting star in weekly charts which would suggest a the second peak for a double top pattern. In the lower time frames we have stochastic staying oversold in 4H charts and macd’s heading lower. Hourly indicators has macd heading down and stochastic with a new bear cross. Given the daily fractal and sell signals we prefer looking for shorts from just under the daily pivot at 1.3764 or at a break of the lows for Thursday 1.3737, roughly the low for Tuesday and Wednesday as well. We may be seeing the start for a big picture double top with its trigger at November’s 1.3303 lows. At the very least it would be interesting to try heading for the said number.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8943 minor / 0.8973 minor / 0.9000(10) moderate
Support: 0.8913 minor / 0.8893 moderate / 0.8845 strong

Aussy saw a huge sell-off Thursday following statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens of an 0.8500 comfort zone for AUDUSD. A broadly firmer dollar also helped push the currency through the psychological support at 0.9000 with 0.8845 as the next key target. We now have daily stochastic in oversold areas while macd is crossing lower once more below the zero line. In 4H charts stochastic is crawling in oversold areas while macd is still dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic and a new bullish cross in macd though price action thus far remains mixed. Note this is Friday with very little data to watchout for in the calendar. Our more immediate risk is ofr a technical correction perhaps to 0.9000 psychological area with 38.2 Fib retracement for the sell-off at 0.9010. Still target in the near term is now a test of 0.8845 then on to 0.8500.

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