Articles by Mark De La Paz

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0441 minor / 1.0454 moderate / 1.0468 minor
Support: 1.0419 minor / 1.0399 moderate / 1.0385 minor

After a pullback in holiday hit markets to the 21D EMA, we have Aussy bouncing to see a closely likely around the days highs and get the daily stochastic to cross up out of oversold areas. The latter inline with the golden cross from daily EMA lines the past week though macd’s have a bear cross. Note we will be seeing the latest RBA decision and Rate statement later at 0330GMT with expectations showing as is numbers though we will likely sound hawkish as the RBA continue to digest the results of previous rate cuts. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts with stochastic overbought and macd just crossing up while price action has us set to cover the long wick of the previous 4H period. Hourly charts see higher high and higher lows while indicators show stochastic crossing up inline with the macd. For now we prefer a buy on dips though a break of the highs would also be seen as a bullish entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2881 moderate / 1.2923 moderate / 1.2994 minor
Support: 1.2843 minor / 1.2801 minor / 1.2748 moderate

Monday saw Euro with a bullish engulfing candle to suggest that we are in a pullback phase for the bearish trending market following the pattern of whipsaw to new lows and pullback to the daily EMA lines. From indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is poised to cross higher though EMA lines suggests a well entrenched bear market. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of buys in the 4H picture with stochastic in overbought levels while macd is rising. Hourly charts for their part has macd still above the signal though topping off and stochastic out of oversold levels. For the moment we are looking to simply follow the previous daily pattern of new lows and a pullback to EMA lines. Consider buys off 1.2843 for the 21D EMA at 1.2923.

EURJPY
Resistance: 120.27 minor / 120.87 moderate / 121.38 minor
Support: 119.51 minor / 118.68 moderate / 118.20 minor

With the disappointing Manufacturing numbers yesterdays we have EURJPY selling off keeping the daily stochastic just above the oversold threshold and macd’s heading lower. We continue to form a double top in the big picture with its trigger at 118.68, this as EMA lines form a dead cross between 21D and 34D EMA. Prices are set to close the monday candle below the 23.6 Fib of our rally from July 24. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to push oversold with macd’s also seeing a new bear cross. Hourly charts are looking mixed with stochastic poised to cross up whioke macd for its part is crossing lower. Given the daily picture immediate risk calls for a test of the 118.68 price point, consider shorts at market preferable from under 120.27. Alternative entry is a break of 119.51. Look for possible hammers and long tails at 118.68 to signal a strong support.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 97.41 minor / 97.72 moderate / 98.02 moderate
Support: 97.04 moderate / 96.62 moderate / 96.39 minor

Aussy-Yen triggered as daily double top at its close under the 38.2 Fib of the rally from Feb 27, also the pattern trigger. Currently we have prices just above a moderate support while indicators show daily stochastic pushing oversold inline with the bearish macd. The next support is our 55D EMA, 96.62. In the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling in oversold levels with a bearish macd to suggest a downtrend in play. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic as price lows remain flat and stochastic lows climb while we have a new bullish cross in macd. With the RBA set to release its policy statement at 0330GMT the prefered course of action is to remain sidelined. A close under 97.04 however may be taken as a signal to test the 55D EMA.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9470 minor / 0.9507 minor / 0.9547 minor
Support: 0.9438 minor / 0.9423 moderate / 0.9384 moderate

We appear have a double top forming in the Swiss Franc with last weeks highs defining our second top and monday’s action taking us just above the daily EMA lines with prices now in the process of pushing under. From daily indicators we have stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also bearish and has a divergence. Intraday we have an inverted flag getting triggered in both hourly and 4H charts. With stochastic for the latter oversold and heading there in hourly charts while macd’s for both time-frames are dropping. Immediate risk calls for shorts preferable just under the 21D EMA at 0.9454 with our objective to get to the 55D EMA down at 0.9384. Take partial profits at 0.9423 while stops loss should be placed just above 0.9470.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 142.03 moderate / 142.29 minor / 142.61 minor
Support: 141.50 moderate / 141.24 moderate / 140.90 minor

At the close we saw GBPJPY under the 50 Fib retracement level of its rally from February 26. Note this apperas to be a bearish breakout following a rounding top over the past four weeks. Indicators wise we are poised to see dead crosses among the daily EMA lines while stochastic is poised to push oversold and macd is also heading lower. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed directions as 4H stochastic is oversold while macd is also dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence from stochastic with macd bottoming out. With the absence of momentum we prefer remaining sidelined though a push to oversold levels in stochastic could be an excuse for shorting while under 142.03

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2814 moderate / 1.2843 minor / 1.2876(81) moderate
Support: 1.2793 moderate / 1.2748 moderate / 1.2680(91) strong

With a long weekend in Europe we have markets with a slow start though Euro may be ready for another drop following thursday’s pullback to just under its breakout point Wednesday, 1.2830. From indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold levels for the moment while macd has already crossed lower and prices under the daily EMA lines. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic dropping in 4H charts while macd is heading up. Hourly indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold. Given the holidays we prefer not to take breakout trades, consider shorts coming off the 1.2876(81) region or 1.2814 during the European session.

USDJPY
Resistance: 94.47 minor / 94.69 minor / 94.92 minor
Support: 94.23 minor / 93.93 moderate / 93.51 minor

The previous has shown 93.93 to develop into a good support area with the daily charts showing long tails reaching to the said price. For today we have Tankan survey results to watch out for at 2350GMT with consensus forecasts calling for an improvement with the Large Manufacturing Index expected at -7 from -12 while Non-Manufacturing is seen improving to 8 from 4. Daily indicators continue to have a confluence of bears with macd dropping and stochastic poised to cross lower though price action suggests a bottom has been established. Note we have a BoJ meeting on Thursday with the new chief Kuroda likely to start QE programs. Intraday we have 4H stochastic pushing overbought inline with the bullish macd while in hourly charts we have stochastic reentering overbought areas underscoring the developing up trend. We prefer waiting for the Tankan results with good news a possible buy on dips to the 93.93 floor in anticipation of Thursdays BoJ MPC results.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5219 moderate / 1.5262 strong / 1.5320 minor
Support: 1.5185 minor / 1.5140 moderate / 1.5092 moderate

After Thursdays surge we have Cable with a ‘doji’ candle in holiday hit Friday trade for a lower high in the daily charts even as we see prices just under the key resistance level of 1.5262, the range floor from the second half of 2010. Note we have a hanging man among the weekly candlesticks while daily indicators has stochastic heading for 80 and macd still pointing up. In the lower time frames we have a new confluence of buys as 4H stochastic crosses up while the macd line remains above the signal though flat. Price charts though suggests a 4H head and shoulder has developed. Hourly indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic crossing lower inline with the macd. Given the presence of a key resistance level and a prior rejection from 1.5262 we prefer looking shorts coming off 1.5219, preferable off 1.5262 with tight stops above the said price.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0425 moderate / 1.0451 minor / 1.0494(00) psychological
Support: 1.0388(99) moderate / 1.0343(50) moderate / 1.0315 minor

Aussy saw a pullback mid week from the previous for a bearish harami at the close Friday. Still we have prices remaining above the daily EMA lines, the 21D EMA at 1.0388 while indicators show a stochastic already oversold though macd has a new bear cross at the daily scale. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with 4H stochastic showing a bullish divergence as price charts remained flat while macd is beginning to cross higher. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s beginning to open up while stochastic is crossing higher. Note from the Fundi picture we continue to see argument for a stronger Aussy as policy remains neutral to hawkish and hard data improves. This being the case we prefer a buy on dips for another surge to the swing highs. Consider longs off 1.0388(99) with stops tightly at 1.0375.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.2307 minor / 1.2340 minor / 1.2387 moderate
Support: 1.2269 moderate / 1.2225 moderate / 1.2198 strong

EURAUD saw a huge sell-off in the previous week offsetting a prior weekly hammer to see lows just above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the rally from July last year. Long-term charts should be well supported at 1.2198. From indicators we have a confluence of buys in the daily charts with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd has just crossed up. Note we have just seen poor Chinese PMI figures at 50.9 vs 51.6 consensus, this is currently weighing on Aussy sentiment. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals as 4H stochastic heads lower while macd is rising. Hourly charts are the opposite with macd’s heading down and stochastic trying to cross up. Despite the current market action we still prefer looking for a bearish EURAUD as the Aussy benefits out of the more neutral stance of the RBA while the Euro once again becomes embroiled in the debt issue. Consider shorts from under 1.2307 preferably 1.2387.

EURJPY
Resistance: 120.40 minor / 120.87 moderate / 121.49 minor
Support: 120.00 psychological / 119.51 minor / 118.68 moderate

We have EURJPY nearing the completion of a daily, even weekly double top, with a trigger at 118.68 while indicators show EMA lines with dead crosses and a bearish macd while stochastic for now has come-off oversold levels. In the lower time frames we have a bearish stochastic while macd is poised to cross lower. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is already under the zero line. Gor now we prefer the sell-side of EURJPY looking to complete the double top pattern in the daily charts though caution is advised as we near Thursday’s BoJ MPC meeting the first where Kuroda will be presiding given the risk of a QE announcement.

USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0180 minor / 1.0215 moderate / 1.0237 minor
Support: 1.0153 minor / 1.0140(43) moderate / 1.0121 minor

Tuesday saw USDCAD closing below the 1.0180 trigger of a daily double top with prices for the moment just above the 55D EMA. From indicators we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and and macd dropping. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic oversold while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has macd bottoming out while stochastic is off oversold levels. For now we prefer looking for vetter prices with shorts from at least just under 1.0180 if not coming off 1.0215. Alternative entry will be a break of 1.0153 the 55D EMA should we have commodity markets rallying.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8393 moderate / 0.8416 minor / 0.8430 minor
Support: 0.8370 minor / 0.8334 minor / 0.8305 moderate

Kiwi triggered a flag pattern yesterday rallying towards the 61.8 Fib of the sell-off from this years highs closing just under the days highs and the 0.8393 61.8 Fib level. Among indicators we have an overbought daily stochastic while macd’s are also heading up. In the lower time frames 4H candlesticks suggests a loss of momentum typical off the Wellington time while stochastic overbought and macd flat. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic dropping while macd is topping off. For now we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for a confluence of bears or perhaps an hourly fractal pattern to develop suggesting we look for a pullback from the 61.8 Fib area.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2884 moderate / 1.2925 minor / 1.2963 moderate
Support: 1.2850 minor / 1.2828 moderate / 1.2802 moderate

Following Monday’s huge sell-off we have Euro consolidating yesterday with limited ranges and sticking near the lows for the year. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is flat just around the signal line. Note we have a pattern of bearish consolidating in the daily scale with price action hardly straying from the EMA lines sine the push below them. In the 4H picture we have stochastic at risk of crossing lower while macd is bearish and price action seeing a series of spinning tops. Hourly macds are technically bullish managing to stay above the signal line in flat markets while stochastic has a bear cross. Given the range play we prefer adopting a straddle in EURUSD with scalpers using the 1.2852 and 1.2867 range while those looking for the next big break aught to use 1.2889 and 1.2828. For the latter we want to see a close beyond the price point before jumping in. Given where prices are and the daily patterns we prefer taking the buy side of a straddle.

AUDCHF
Resistance: 0.9966(70) moderate / 1.0000 psychological / 1.0074 minor
Support: 0.9885 strong / 0.9861 minor / 0.9834 moderate

AUDCHF has pushed past the resistance area of its range play since September of last year, with a daily close monday above 0.9885. Note we have daily EMA lines supporting the idea of a bullish trending market while other indicators has stochastic crossing higher and macd heading up. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed directions as 4H stochastic push further into overbought territory while macd is rising. Hourly charts for their part has macd topping off and stochastic with a bearish divergence. Given the latter we prefer looking for a pullback to our breakout point and possible buys off 0.9885. For now we are cautiously bullish and looking for a fllow through rally though AUDCHF has seen a lot of false breaks in the weekly scale before.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0475 moderate / 1.0494 moderate / 1.0526 minor
Support: 1.0443 minor / 1.0413 moderate / 1.0397 minor

Monday saw the Aussy trying to see a follow through to the pennant break out from Thursday last week though in the end we could not hold on to gains as markets retreated on a broad basis. At this point we have AUDUSD just around the resistance line of a big symmetric triangle from the weekly picture break of which opens us to a run to the historic highs at 1.1074. Intraday we have a mixed view as stochastic crosses up while macd is trying to cross down in 4H charts. This while hourly indicators has macd’s flat below the signal and stochastic having just crossed up. Note it could be argued that we have a head and shoulder in hourly charts though given the overall bias we are still looking to buy on dips to 1.0443 with stops just under 1.0432, left trough of the pattern. Alternatively a close above 1.0475 should pave the way for a rally possibly up to the swing highs at 1.0597.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2878 moderate / 1.2910 moderate / 1.2943 minor
Support: 1.2841 minor / 1.2802 moderate / 1.2774 moderate

After the initial rally on news of a bailout for Cyprus details of the deal released in European trade dampened investor sentiment to give us a big black candle for Monday, following a rejection from the 21D EMA. We are now under the 50Fib level of the rally from July 2012, Daily indicators has a bearish cross in stochastic with macd poised to follow. Intraday we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping in our 4H charts while we have a mixed view from the hourly picture with a stochastic on the rise and macd just bottoming. Given the big sell-off Monday and its resulting close under 1.2878, 50 Fib area, we prefer looking for a sell-on rallies preferably off 1.2943.

EURJPY
Resistance: 123.75 minor / 123.40 moderate / 124.85 minor
Support: 123.35 minor / 122.81 minor / 122.18 moderate

After gapping slightly lower we have EURJPY closing the ‘sunday’ trade above the 21D EMA on a bounce off the 55D EMA line following news on a bailout for Cyprus. At this point we have nearly seen the average daily range of EURJPY 209 pips. Daily indicators has stochastic continuing its rise while macd remains flat below the signal line. From the lower time frames we have 4H macd crossing higher while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly charts similarly has a confluence of buys with an overbought stochastic and rising macd. For now we prefer waiting for a close above 123.75 before going long or a bounce off 122.80 for a bullish entry. Note we are in the final week of possible Japanese repatriation flows, meanwhile any statement from Kuroda on boosting the domestic economy should see us going beyond average ranges.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3045 minor / 1.3073 moderate / 1.3137 moderate
Support: 1.3020 minor / 1.2997 moderate / 1.2972 moderate

We have already seen the average daily range for Euro as we gapped lower at the open on the absence of news before the Wellington market opened only to rally following reports of a Cypriot exit from the Eurozone and relief that small depositors in Cyprus will still get their insurance. We have the first three hours of trading for the week seeing Euro push back above the daily EMA lines with daily indicators showing stochastic in overbought levels and macd on the rise. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic crawling in overbought levels while hourly’s are posied to push through the 80 barrier. MACD’s for both time frames are also rising. For now we prefer looking for a flag to develop in Asian trade while waiting for European markets to open and get their response to the news out of Cyprus.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0445 minor / 1.0475 moderate / 1.0494 moderate
Support: 1.0413 moderate / 1.0397 minor / 1.0369 minor

Aussy finally trigger its daily pennant with the break pushing past intraday targets closing Thursday well above the 1.0413 moderate resistance then. Daily indicators has nacd’s ointing up with stochastic poised to reenter overbought levels getting dragged into a bullish cross by the breakout. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pushing up with candlesticks showing a shooting star, for a possible excuse to pullback to 1.0413. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd heading up. Given that we have a moderate support and broke out of a pennant we prefer a scaled entry, look for buys off 1.0413 and possibly from the previous pennant resistance line.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5189 moderate / 1.2511 moderate / 1.5227 moderate
Support: 1.5164 minor / 1.5125 minor / 1.5086 moderate

Cable saw us close just under the breakout point of a daily flag pattern, though holding on to its gains suggesting a focus on getting a follow through in today’s trade. For the moment prices are beneath the 34D EMA. Daily indicators has macd heading up while stochastic has a new bullish cross looking to reenter overbought areas. From the 4H picture we have a rising macd and stochastic looking for a bullish cross. Hourly charts for their part has a flat macd with stochastic rising. Immediate calls for a trigger of the daily flag pattern, though entry preferable should be only above 34D EMA at 1.5211. Pattern target call for a bounce to 1.5473. Note after a 1500 pip sell-off since January the change in tone from the BoE and potential haven flows from Europe will likely see Cable bouncing for a pullback, 38.2 Fib of that 3-month sell-off at 1.5397.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2929 moderate / 1.2975 moderate / 1.3006 moderate
Support: 1.2876 strong / 1.2841 minor / 1.2800 moderate

After the sharp reversal from the false break of 1.2876, 50 Fib level of the recovery from 2012 lows we seem to have Euro in a mixed trade for now with Cypriot issues weighing though no longer the big scary threat from the weeks open. At this point we have prices between significant support and resistance levels, the immediate support 1.2876. Among indicator we have macd flat from the daily to 4H and hourly charts. Stochastic is mixed across the time-frames with daily’s coming off oversold levels while the 4H stochastic is heading down and hourly sharply pointing up. Given the wait for a resolution on Cypriot issues and the strength of the support and resistance we suggests looking for a range play with buys off 1.286 and shorts from under 1.2975.

USDJPY
Resistance: 95.13 moderate / 95.38 minor / 95.70 moderate
Support: 94.81 moderate / 94.47 moderate / 94.13 strong

Thursday’s sell-off has USDJPY just above the 21D EMA, a moderate support at 94.81. Daily indicators has macd’s heading lower and stochastic poised at a bear cross this as we appear to have a risk averse environment following significant losses European and US equities yesterday. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic just crossing lower and macd flat after bottoming out. For now our immediate support appears to be under threat with a close below 94.81 a bearish entry for a run to the daily double top trigger at 94.13, key support level. Take to long to break lower, see USDJPY build a base and we are likely to see a bounce by the time European markets open.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2975 minor / 1.3006 moderate / 1.3043 minor
Support: 1.2923 moderate / 1.2877 strong / 1.2843 minor

It appears we have a false breakout from Tuesdays push under 1.2877 with a piercing pattern in the daily candlesticks yesterday. At this point we have prices just under the 200D SMA with the 21D EMA at 1.3025 looking like a ripe target. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off oversold areas though the macd indicator remains flat with its signal line. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic crosses lower and macd’s continue to point up in the 4H picture. Hourly indicators look mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is flat. Given the piercing pattern in the daily charts we would like to look for a follow through rally. Consider buys at market with tight stops under 1.2923 for 1.3006 our moderate resistance then on to 1.3043.

AUDUSD
Resistances: 1.0397 minor / 1.0413 moderate / 1.0443 moderate
Support: 1.0370 minor / 1.0355 minor / 1.3041 moderate

Aussy gave up its gains in NEw York trade to close well inside the daily congestion for the week though indicators now have dailye EMA’s poised at a golden cross, 21D and 34D in line with the bullish macd. Daily stochastic for now is coming overbought levels, we have yet to see signs it will be oscillating around 80. In the lower time frames we have a symmetric triangle in 4H charts though indicators are bearish with macd heading lower and stochastic pointing down. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd has bottomed out and is crossing higher. It appears that our daily flag has turned in to a symmetric triangle in intraday charts. Nonetheless we expect a bullish breakout, a close above 1.0397 in Asian trade will be a bullish entry.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5142 minor / 1.5189 moderate / 1.5221 minor
Support: 1.5072 moderate / 1.5045 minor / 1.5000 strong

Wednesday saw Cable taking peak past both sides of its range play only to close with a high wave doji, still under the flat 21D EMA. Daily indicators look mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up. Note the minutes of the latest MPC meeting released yesterday suggests of a growing concern on credibility issues and declining possibility of an increase in the APF in the near term. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4H macd and stochastic the latter with a new bear cross though prices are well supported at 1.5072. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading down. Given the fundamental bias we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the moderate 1.5072 support with stops just under yesterdays lows at 1.5026. We appear to have an inverted head and shoulder in the 4H charts.

EURCHF
Resistance: 1.2217 minor / 1.2256 moderate / 1.2274(83) moderate
Support: 1.2168(71) moderate / 1.2142 moderate / 1.2121 minor

After covering gap from its open monday, EURCHF saw another big sell-off getting rejected from the daily EMA lines as the Euro area faces turmoil on Cyprus rejection of the terms for its bail out. Daily indicators has stochastic taking a peak off oversold levels though we expect it to oscillate around 20 as we see prices push under the moderate support at 1.2168(71) while macd is bearish. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals as well in 4H charts with stochastic crossing just off the 20 mark while candlesticks are indecisive and macd bearish. Hourly charts has macd’s flat under the signal line while stochastic is trying to cross up. Given the immediate support we prefer looking for a close under 1.2168 before shorting. Alternatively we could look for shorts from under 1.2257. Note we have a double bottom forming in hourly charts.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0384 minor / 1.0413 moderate / 1.0443 moderate
Support: 1.0356 minor / 1.0340 moderate / 1.0318(21) moderate

Aussy sold-off Tuesday getting rejected from the 200D SMA and its 61.8 Fib retracement for the year’s sell-off. At this point we have prices just above the 55D EMA, a previous bounce off point. From indicators we have macd’s pushing higher while stochastic is coming off overbought levels. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in 4H charts with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Note we have a double top from the price charts. Hourly indicators for their part has a flat macd and stochastic heading lower. For now we prefer looking for a bounce off 1.0340 though an hourly close under the 55D EMA, 1.0340 will also be seen as a bearish entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2877 strong / 1.2923 moderate / 1.2962 minor
Support: 1.2803(14) moderate / 1.2765 minor / 1.2734 minor

With the Cypriot rejection of their bail out terms we have Euro closing Tuesday under the key support at 1.2877 50 Fib retracement of the rally from July 2012. Note we have a bearish engulfing for the daily candle. Among indicators daily stochastic is oversold while macd is beginning to open lower. Intraday we have had a high wave candle in New York trade from the 4H picture with macd’s dropping and stochastic just crossing up. Hourly macd is bottoming out while stochastic is coming off oversold areas. For now we prefer looking for a push past the high wave candle lows before jumping short though with prices under a strong resistance the longer it takes for us to move back up the more we will consider shorting at market by European midday trade.