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Articles by Mark De La Paz

February 10th, 2015 @ 11:15 am by Mark De La Paz

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Its been a long time coming but finally the BoJ’s Kuroda has reason to be happy as monday’s failure to push USDJPY back inside its bearish trendline now confirms tha validity of Friday’s pennant breakout. With the BoJ’s policy on doubling the money base for the country relegated to the sidelines among global investors USDJPY has been seeing lower highs the past two months though the latest US Jobs numbers once again underscores the differing policy directions between Japan and the US. Where the other still prints money and them some what has a lot of expectations riding on it to try to tighten or atleast underscore the intent.

USDJPYDaily

Key for now will be the ability to push past Friday’s highs of 119.22 which should pave the way for us to argue the psychological 120.00 as our target though projected high for the day is at 119.65.

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February 9th, 2015 @ 11:05 am by Mark De La Paz

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After some minimal dollar bullish gaps at the open, the greenback thus far has been hardpressed to follow through on Friday’s payroll driven rally even as the daily candlesticks provide some very interesting scenarios for further dollar gains. To recall, Friday saw the market reinstating notions of a rate hike by the middle of the year from the Fed as the job market shows signs of resilience in the US buckingthe trend of poor economic releases. For the month of January we saw NFP coming in at 257,000 against a 236,000 consensus even as previous results were revised to 329,000 from 252,000 before with average earnings also picking up 0.5%. This essentially allays concerns that the Fed might be shifting its stance following the recent spate of surprise easing.

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From a technical perspective we are actually looking at a dark cloud cover in Cable, pinochio candles inAussy, and dollar bullish breakout in Gold and Yen though as mentioned price action thus far has actually seen a pullback not a follow through.

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February 6th, 2015 @ 8:55 am by Mark De La Paz

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The past week has seen some very intersting if frustrating price action ahead of todays NFP. An aussy sell-off courtesy of the RBA surprising the markets with a rate cut did not last and turned into a daily hammer. While the dollar weakened as people speculated that the Fed could further move back any rate hike after reviewing recent releases which has been week. And thursday saw the Cable rally breaking the years consolidation as the BoE turned out to be the only central bank that has buck the trend of surprise easing.

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All this said we now turn to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls with consensus forecast at 236,000. With so many of recent US data falling short of forecast people are anticipating a weak read though how much of dollar weakness could be expected is a different thing all together as we have exhibited some “buy the runor,” ¬†already and “sell the fact” could follow. Anything around the 250,000 mark however should prove interesting given the heights we have seen in the correction for many of the dollar pairs.

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February 4th, 2015 @ 10:36 am by Mark De La Paz

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The PBOC has just cut interest rates by 50 bps. Knee Jerk impact is a 60 pip pop.

AUDUSDM1

Given the Broader technicalpicture this could see us to the 0.7950′s region going to Fridays US NFP from where we could turn into interested sellers specially if the us jobs market surprises on the upside.

AUDUSDDaily

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February 4th, 2015 @ 9:20 am by Mark De La Paz

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Tuesday has turned out to be a big surprise for the market in many ways as price action from an earlier decision by the RBA to cut was eventually reversed by the close for a long tail in the daily Aussy charts and similarly weak dollar plays across the other majors. For Euro we had a consolidation breakout that saw us up to the daily EMA while GBPUSD has now formed a double bottom though we are unconvinced ofits ability to trigger.

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So what exactly happened? It appears that with the surprise move by the RBA earlier the day traders elsewhere have begun to speculate who is next, and their response was the US backing off its hawkish direction in monetary policy. Given the dollars gains the past few months and recent weakness in economic data it is easy to see now why such a thinking would crop up. Going forward however, such concerns on policy direction would merely further emphasize the importance of this Friday’s NFP results.

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February 3rd, 2015 @ 6:13 am by Mark De La Paz

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After the surprise rate cut by the Bank of Canada last January 20th and all the talk of currency wars in Davos, not to mention the Russian 180 degree turn on policy, today saw another front opened with a salvo by the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting key interest rates tp 0.75% against expectations of a steady 1.0%. As with the SNB’s move which heated the cold war on currencies the RBA’s action is not extacly unwarranted with the commodity super cycle at an end and other domestic industries hallowed out during the Miracle economy period.

AUDUSDMonthly

Essentially the announcement paves the way for RBA Governor Glenn Stevens dream level of 0.7500. For today we have already seen twice the aveage daily range which would suggest better remaining on the sidelines until a nice sellon rally potential develops.

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February 2nd, 2015 @ 1:16 pm by Mark De La Paz

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The days price action for Cable has already been intesreting and extensive nearing their weighted daily averages though with enough room for bears to continue making a try for Fridays lows at 1.4988. Such a move would ofcourse again mean going under the psychological 1.5000 area, incidentally S1 in pivots, opening the potential of even greater interest for shorts among the swing type traders.

GBPUSDH1

For the bigger picture the key remains to be taking out our year low so far, at 1.4952 with a daily close beneath it opening the crucial 1.4813 area. A candidate buy area should we start seeing longterm indecision.

GBPUSDWeekly

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January 30th, 2015 @ 1:06 pm by Mark De La Paz

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While it is not unusual for us to write about how limited the range is thus far, today seems all the more ominous given that we face advanced US GDP numbers in a few minutes. Note that fromn the charts it appears that any breakout following the release will be predisposition-ed to move lower given the over all trends though we prefer seeing a follow through to GBPUSD’s rejection from the EMA’s for new lows.

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Ahead we have Advance GDP (1330GMT) numbers where expectations call for a bit of easing in the blistering 5.0% pace last time out to a more sedate 3.3%. While such a read may be seen as disastrous for the second biggest economy China, a 3.3% clip for US GDP would still be seen as blistering pace for a developed economy. As such anything higher to me would call for us pushing the stronger dollar agenda particularly in the face of a rather optimistic Fed last Wednesday. Where the greenback managed to rally despite many expectations of a near term hike being moved back to the middle of the year.

calendar 013015

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