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Articles by Mark De La Paz

November 26th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1251.44 moderate / 1258.04 minor / 1263.50 moderate
Support: 1245.27 minor / 1237.30 moderate / 1227.95 minor

After an earlier sell-off at the open of European markets we have Gold seeing a turn around in New York trade to close around the previous swing lows from October suggesting that mean reversion is a possibility. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is bottoming out. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in the 4H picture with stochastic pushing for overbought levels while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up. Given the mixed views we prefer remaining sidelined though a 4H close with a little wick and decent sized body would suggest mean reversion is in play. Note we are in the process of pushing past a moderate resistance at 1251.44.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6175 moderate / 1.6205 minor / 1.6240 moderate
Support: 1.6133 minor / 1.6111 moderate / 1.6070 moderate

Cable saw a sharp sell-off yesterday with a daily ‘Bearish Engulfing’ closing well inside the body of Thursday bullish breakout. Among indicators we have a bearish divergence in daily stochastic while macd’s are flat above the signal line. Note we could be seeing a setup for mean reversion overall context a ranging market from 1.6260 down to 1.5120. In the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part are looking to ease off overbought areas while macd see a bullish cross. Key event for the day will be the BoE’s inflation report where expectations suggests further excuse for weakness is possible given how price pressures have eased over the past year without any need for policy action. Consider shorts from just under the daily pivot around the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9197 minor / 0.9245 moderate / 0.9283 strong
Support: 0.9155 moderate / 0.9112 moderate / 0.9088 minor

Monday saw Aussy with an attempt at the 0.9112 region a moderate support following through the break of 0.9283 from Thursday last week. At the close however we have a high wave candle suggesting that bearish momentum has been lost. Among indicators we have daily stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping along with bearish EMA lines though the high wave candle and large gap between prices and EMA’s suggests mean reversion is a big possibility. Intraday we are seeing buy signals with 4H stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s just crossing up while from the hourly picture we have stochastic crawling in overbought levels and macd’s also rising. Note we saw a quick surge higher from the open just above the daily pivot at 0.9155. For now we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the daily pivot though a push past 0.9197 may also be seen as a bullish entry, our objective to atleast pullback to the 50 Fib level, incidentally our key support from before at 0.9283.

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November 25th, 2013 @ 1:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9187 moderate / 0.9207 minor / 0.9249 minor
Support: 0.9143 minor / 0.9112 moderate / 0.9076 moderate

Aussy saw a sharp sell-off again Friday to continue from the bearish engulfing midweek, a rejection off EMA lines. We now find AUDUSD in oversold levels justified by the break of the 0.9283 key support level with daily stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s also header lower, already below the zero line. Daily EMA’s also have new bear crosses. For the moment we have prices just under the daily pivot at 0.9187 while intraday we retain a bearish bias. The 4H stochastic is crawling pversold while macd’s down. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up. Given hints of possible intervention from the RBA and views talks over the end of the commodity supercycle we remain generally bearish in Aussy though the lack of catalyst will have us wait for European open before looking for shorts from just under the daily pivot, 0.9187. Note a technical correction a possibility on a close above 0.9187.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3567 moderate / 1.3600 moderate / 1.3647 moderate
Support: 1.3525 moderate / 1.3493 moderate / 1.3462 minor

Euro managed a strong close Friday pushing back up above the daily EMA lines and ending the day with a bozu. We appear to be seeing higher lows with the bounce off 38.2 Fib of the July rally Thursday. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has also crossed up looking to surface through the zero line. Note Euro’s upside could be underpinned by Irans nuclear concessions though the chart is well resisted. In the lower time frames we have a pregnant pattern, a bearish harami in the making with a long wick sticking out to define the possible high for the day. Indicators wise 4H stochastic is crawling overbought and macd is pointing up. In hourly charts we have argument for a pullback with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s seeing a new bear cross. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the absence of a catalyst though a break of the daily pivot will be a bearish entry.

EURNZD
Resistance: 1.6523 minor / 1.6596 moderate / 1.6676 moderate
Support: 1.6467 minor / 1.6436 moderate / 1.6370 moderate

EURNZD rallied to around its bear channel resistance line in the past week managing to push back above the daily EMA lines Thursday. Currently we have prices coming off its bullish gap from the open, raising the possibility of a dark cloud cover in the making. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to come out of overbought areas though macd has just pushed up through the zero line. In the 4H level we have an evening start with stochastic trying to come-off overbought areas and macd’s topping off. This as prices are in the process of pushing under the daily pivot at 1.6502. For their part, hourly charts has stochastic oversold and macd’s also heading lower. Note with Euro well resisted and Kiwi trying to push back up above its breakout point from last week, we may have the EURNZD cross set for a sharp sell-off.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1244.69 moderate / 1251.49 moderate / 1255.55 minor
Support: 1237.30 moderate / 1232.51 minor / 1215.88 moderate

Gold has seen a series of spinning tops and doji’s following its break of 1250 last week suggesting a loss of momentum though with prices remaining under 1250 we continue to have a bearish bias. Among indicators we have an oversold stochastic and bearish macd though the gap with the EMA lines and indecisive candles opens the possibility of a mean reversion play. In intraday charts we continue to see the indecisive tone from the sideways price action in 4H candles and bearish stochastic while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part suggests a pullback risk as stochastic head up and macd’s are poised to push back above the zero line. For now we will still remain sidelined though an hourly close above the daily pivot at 1244.69 may be seen as a bullish entry possibly the start of a mean reversion play.

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November 22nd, 2013 @ 1:56 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0526 minor / 1.0548 moderate / 1.0568 minor
Support: 1.0516 minor / 1.0499 moderate / 1.0472 moderate

USDCAD saw a strong close Thursday,just under the days highs, as broader dumping of commodities and commodity currencies gave us a bounce of the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys with daily stochastic poised to push into overbought levels while macd has anew bullish cross. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s topping out. Note we have key data coming out of Canada later on with the month-on-month Retail Sales figures expected to read 0.2% for core and 0.3% in the headline. We are also seeing CPI figures around the same time at 1330GMT. Given the releases it would be bestto remain sidelined, a strong read will be an excuse to pullback to the daily EMA’s while poor numbers could see us pushing through the 1.0526 region.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9256 minor / 0.9285 moderate / 0.9320 minor
Support: 0.9221 moderate / 0.9177 moderate / 0.9112 moderate

Along with the rest of the commodity currencies we saw Aussy with a sharp sell-off this on a combination of RBA policy and the growing idea that the commodity super cycle for the past decade ha ended. Looking at the indicators we have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold in the daily charts while macd’s are heading lower and EMA lines see new dead crosses.Note we are just above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our rally from August lows. In intraday charts we are seeing signs of a technical correction after the huge sell-off the past two days. Hourly indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has bottomed out. In the 4H level we have a hammer in the candlesticks while stochastic is coming out of oversold areas though macd remains bearish. For the moment with prices coming off the 61.8 fib for the first time our immediate risk is a technical correction a bounce off 0.9221 for 0.9285 though we would look for a rejection of the said price.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6209 minor / 1.6238 minor / 1.6260 moderate
Support: 1.6178 minor / 1.6144 moderate / 1.6115 moderate

Cable saw a huge surge Thursday with GBPUSD closing at its highs pushing past the prior range play tops while daily indicators now have stochastic crawling overbought and macd’s above zero also heading up. This following a bounceoffthedaily EMA lines. Note this is a follow through to last weeks descending wedge breakout while candlesticks show a bullish continuation matt hold pattern. From the lower timeframes we are keeping a bullish bias with 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd has crossed up. Hourly charts has stochastic oscillating in overbought levels while macd is also pushing higher. Overall we have a bullish bias in Cable with 1.6260 as the key price target. Look for a bounce off 1.6144 asour entry point though alternatively we may use a break of the days highs for a bullish entry point. It appears that we may be forming a triple top.

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November 21st, 2013 @ 5:28 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3445 moderate / 1.3477 minor / 1.3496 moderate
Support: 1.3411 moderate / 1.3390 minor / 1.3356 moderate

Euro saw a sharp sell-off Wednesday following reports that the ECB is considering negative interest rates, we find ourselves with a daily candlestick coming off 50 Fib retracement level for the drop from October 25 while prices pushed all the way through the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic heading lower while macd’s lines are under zero though they have yet to see a bear cross. Intraday we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd’s poised to push below the zeroline though we have a “dragon fly doji” from the Wellington session. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking for a bear cross while macd’s are flat below zero. With the changing view from the ECB we prefer looking focusing on the sellside, ideally after a pull back to 1.3477 but we will considering selling off 1.3445 if we remain just under the price by the open of European markets. Alternative entry will be a break of the 1.3412 area.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1253.85 moderate / 1261.67 minor / 1271.69 minor
Support: 1240.71 minor / 1231.27 moderate / 1224.46 minor

Gold saw a sharp sell-off in afternoon US trade, as the Fed Minutes indicate serious talk of a taper happening sooner rather than later. At the close we were just above the days lows with the break of 1251.60 from October reinforcing the idea of lower highs and lows. Among indicators we have a confluence of bears in the daily charts with stochastic in oversold areas and macd’s heading lower still. In the lower time frames we have stochastic in oversold levels from the 4H picture while in the hourly’s we are oscillating around 20. The macd indicators is bearish and below the zeroline for both hourly and 4H charts. We continue to favor the sell-side of XAUUSD though preference is for us to come-off a pullback rather than just jumping short. Look for bearish price action from just under the 1253.85 level, today’s central pivot. Note we prefer taking action only at the open of European morning trade.

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November 20th, 2013 @ 1:26 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3567 minor / 1.3600 minor / 1.3647 moderate
Support: 1.3524 moderate / 1.3492 moderate / 1.3463 minor

At the close we saw Euro well past the daily EMA lines with EURUSD getting an early boost in Pre-Tokyo trade from the dovish statements of Chairman Bernanke. In daily indicators we have stochastic overbought and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. With the break of the Mondays highs we now view the high wave candle then as a consolidation of previous gains. In intraday charts we have macd’s heading up and stochastic looking to push into overbought levels for the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with macd’s heading up and stochastic coming off slowly easing lower. Given the penchant to pullback following an EMA breakout our preference will be for a buy on dips back to the EMA longs though targets now call for a test of the 1.3647 region.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6135 moderate / 1.6165 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6093 moderate / 1.6065 moderate / 1.6045 moderate

Tuesday gave us a long tail and a small body in Cable though prices appear to be whipsawing just above the daily EMA lines. Note this consolidation comes after a bullisgh breakout last week from a daily descending wedge. Among indicators we have daily stochastic staying in overbought levels while macd’s have also crossed up though still around the still just above the zero threshold. From the 4H picture we have a series of spinning tops among the candlesticks with the indecision underscored buy a stochastic having trouble pushing overbought and macd’s above zero though staying flat below the signal line. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is topping off. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a buy on dips to the EMA line at 1.6065 is a potential trade. Looking for the open of Europe to give us a bounce off 1.6093 or a break of 1.6135.

EURJPY
Resistance: 135.96 moderate / 136.38 minor / 137.00 minor
Support: 135.46 moderate / 135.00 minor / 134.67 minor

EURJPY saw a bullish breakout pushing past the 135.46 price point to close just under Tuesday highs of 135.70. Daily indicators has stochastic crawling in overbought areas with macd’s rising. Given the nature of our break out a push past level not seen since 2009 we need to show an ability to stay above 135.46. Look for consolidation just above the breakout point. Intraday we have a new bullish cross in 4H macd while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic seeing a bearish divergence and macd’s flat above the signal line. Consider longs off 135.46 in European morning trade or at a push past 135.93 then.

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November 18th, 2013 @ 1:02 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3530 moderate / 1.3568 minor
Support: 1.3469 minor / 1.3446 minor / 1.3418 moderate

Despite managing to see a bullish engulfing at the close Friday, Euro failed to take out the 55D EMA putting prices immediately under a key resistance area the psychological 1.3500. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys stochastic having just pushed overbought Friday while macds see a new bullish though both signal and main line remain below zero. In 4H charts we have stochastic in the process of crossing lower while the macd main line is flaty above the signal even as we also seem to have a dark cloud cover forming in among the candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for a rejection from the daily EMA’s either a break of 1.3469 for an hourly double top or coming from just under the 55D EMA 1.3500.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6131 moderate / 1.6165 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6099 moderate / 1.6050 moderate / 1.6022 minor

Cable saw a follow through to a descending wedge breakout Friday with prices closing around their highs and well above the prior days high wave candle. Daily indicators show a confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing overbought and macd also pushing back above the zero line. For the moment we have prices just above the daily pivot though we are having trouble making a run for Friday highs. Note latest of the BoE suggests the possibility of an earlier tightening , excuse for making a run to the 1.6260 highs. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators with stochastic looking to reenter overbought areas and macd rising though price action suggests a possible ‘dark cloud cover’. Hourly charts has a new bear cross in macd and stochastic just coming off overbought levels. Immediate risks suggests a trigger of the hourly double top though we plan on going long off the 1.6050 region. Alternative entry a break of the 1.6131 immediate resistance.

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November 15th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3458 minor / 1.3497 moderate / 1.3530 moderate
Support: 1.3419 moderate / 1.3374 minor / 1.3327 moderate

Euro saw a hanging man at the end of the trading day with the 55D EMA preventing any follow through rally early on. Indicators show mixed signals from the daily chart though with stochastic faltering at the overbought threshold and macd’s heading lower while already beneath the zero line suggests we focus on the sell side. Note we have dead crosses in the daily EMA lines and prices below the central pivot. From the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in the 4H picture with stochastic heading lower and steady highs while macd’s are topping off. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s poised to drop below the zero line. Consider shorts from the 55D EMA line or just off the daily pivot if its already the European morning trade.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6080 minor / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6050 moderate / 1.6023 minor / 1.5994 moderate

Cable the past few weeks has formed a descending wedge, that calls for a bullish breakout though our attempt yesterdays turned out to be a high wave candle. Prices at this point remain above the daily EMA lines after barreling through Wednesday. Indicators show a confluence of buys with macd coming off zero with a bullish crossover while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Intraday we have mixed signals in the 4H charts with stochastic showing a divergence while macd is heading up. Hourly charts show more mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading down. Given the mixed intraday signals we prefer remaining sidelined despite calls for a follow through rally from the higher time frames. Looking to straddle at the open of European markets sell stops under 1.6050, buys on the congestion highs from Asian trade.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1288.52 minor / 1294.69 moderate / 1301.57 minor
Support: 1286.49 moderate / 1278.74 moderate / 1272.77 minor

Thursday saw Gold with a follow through rally to the piercing pattern as mean reversion continues. Daily indicators has stochastic well on its way up while macd is bottoming out. note we have prices just above the daily pivot at 1286.49. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part are the opposite with stochastic pushing higher and macd’s flat below the signal line. For now given the lack of conviction and catalyst from the Asian session we will remain sideline though looking for a follow through rally to complete our mean reversion play for the 21D EMA. We will consider longs at the open of European markets.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.39(45) moderate / 100.84 moderate / 101.21 minor
Support: 99.76 moderate / 99.37 moderate / 99.09 minor

USDJPY saw a bullish engulfing for Thursday seeing new highs as equity markets rallied on Janet Yellen’s dovish stance in her confirmation hearings. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought and macd’s rising with prices fast approahcing R1 from pivots, 100.39. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in both hourly and 4H picture. Stochastic has just pushed overbought in both time frames while macd’s are seeing new bullish crosses. Note we are also getting reports of overwhelming support of Abenomics seemingly driving Yen bears. Consider a buy on dips to the 99.76 region, the daily pivot though any base building around 100.00 over the course of the day will be a welcome bullish entry.

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November 14th, 2013 @ 1:21 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8300 moderate / 0.8319 minor / 0.8348 moderate
Support: 0.8268 minor / 0.8245 moderate / 0.8211 moderate

Kiwi managed to push back up above the previous key support at 0.8228, 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30 lows, prices are now just below the 21D EMA at 0.8300. We have a bullish engulfing from the daily candlesticks, indicators show stochastic off oversold levels and macd’s bottoming out. Strangely enough earlier figures were actually disappointing for New Zealand as Retail Sales turned out at 0.3% against a 0.9% consensus and Core Retail Sales contracted -0.1% against the 1.4% consensus forecast. From indicators we are seeing bullish signals the 4h stochastic overbought while macd is looking to push backup above the zero line. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s rising. We are currently seeing an attempt to rally up basically keeping our range play from 0.8228 to 0.8500 intact.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6066 moderate / 1.6091 minor / 1.6115 moderate
Support: 1.6034 minor / 1.6000 moderate / 1.5963 moderate

Cable saw a sharp rally Wednesday for a bullish engulfing that has taken prices all the way through the daily EMA lines after closing well below them Tuesday. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up while macd is bottoming out nearing a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with 4H stochastic pushing overbought while macd is heading backup for the zero line. Note bullish momentum appears to be waning as we move higher the latest candle at risk of forming a spinning top. From the hourly picture we have mixed signals with stochastic showing a bearish divergence while macd is heading up. Note by this time impact of good jobs numbers and speculations over BoE intent should be fully priced in. For now we prefer remaning sidelined looking for shorts on a push below 1.6034 at the open of European markets.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3505 moderate / 1.3547 minor / 1.3588 minor
Support: 1.3479 minor / 1.3452 moderate / 1.3412 moderate

Wednesday saw a follow through rally in Euro taking prices up to the 55D EMA line. Indicators continue to show mixed signals for the big picture with stochastic looking poised for a run through the 55D EMA and macd trying bottoming out. From the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing back into overbought levels from the 4H picture while macd has just pushed through the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Note hourly charts show long wicks for the past three hours suggesting a possible pullback consider shorts at the break of 1.3480. Consider shorts at the break of 1.3479.

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