Featured Course: Japanese Candlesticks
Instructor: Muhammad Azeem | Level: Beginner+
No. Lessons: 6 | Type: Technical Analysis
April 15th, 2013 @ 2:04 am by Mark De La Paz
EURUSD In the end a late surge saw the Euro with a ‘hanging man’ at the close of Friday as an earlier rejection off the 1.3118, 38.2 Fib of the sell-off from February 1st, gave us a long tail bouncing off the 55D EMA. Among indicators we have daily stochastic just above the 80 level while macd’s are pointing up, note we have a fractal pattern among the daily charts with 1.3113 still a strong resistance despite the false breakout Thursday. From the 4H picture we may be forming a head and shoulder pattern with the shooting star for the last candle Friday suggesting a lower high though indicators are mixed with macd dropping and stochastic pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is bullish. Given the daily fractal and strong resistance we prefer looking for shorts from under 1.3113 or on break of the daily pivot at 1.3090. A push above Thursday’s highs could signal a bullish market, and stop and reverse contingency. GBPUSD Friday turned out to be a ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ from the daily picture with stochastic coming off overbought levels though the daily macd indicator remains bullish. Note daily charts has a pattern of higher highs and congestion following such bullish breakouts. Prices for the moment are just above the daily EMA lines with a new Golden Cross forming out of the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic just pushing oversold and macd’s opening lower. Hourly charts are mixed with a bearish macd but stochastic coming off oversold levels. We have the Rightmove HPI set for release 2301GMT. A strong read could see us bouncing with the break of 1.5351(57) a possible entry through upside could be capped by the 1.5411(22) price zone. A break of 1.5306 would suggest a test of 1.5260. USDJPY Friday turned out to be a ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ from the daily picture with stochastic coming off overbought levels though the daily macd indicator remains bullish. Note daily charts has a pattern of higher highs and congestion following such bullish breakouts. Prices for the moment are just above the daily EMA lines with a new Golden Cross forming out of the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic just pushing oversold and macd’s opening lower. Hourly charts are mixed with a bearish macd but stochastic coming off oversold levels. We have the Rightmove HPI set for release 2301GMT. A strong read could see us bouncing with the break of 1.5351(57) a possible entry through upside could be capped by the 1.5411(22) price zone. A break of 1.5306 would suggest a test of 1.5260. EURJPY Friday saw EURJPY with a steady sell-off closing just above the 23.6 Fib retracement level of our two week rally, though prices were close to the days lows retaining much of the decline. Among indicators we have 4 daily stochastic poised to push oversold and macd topping off. In the 4H picture we have prices just below the daily pivot at 129.42 suggesting a close above the number as a buy signal though for now reinforcing the idea of being well resisted. Hourly charts has macd’s bottoming out while stochastic is bullish. For the moment with liquidity and other Asian markets still closed we prefer doing nothing though absent a close above 129.42 buys could not be taken and a bearish price action may be seen as an excuse for shorting. Note we have a series of moderate resistances. AUDJPY Following the high-wave candle from Thursday AUDJPY saw a 200 pip sell-off Friday with the close under 23.6 Fib retracement of the months rally, setting us up for a mean reversion play. Note the 21D EMA for today is at 101.07. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic pushing further into oversold levels while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals. From the calendar AUDJPY may have a very interesting day with the BoJ Branch managers meeting for Kuroda while, Australia has home loans data 0130GMT, and China will be releasing a slew of numbers at 0200GMT. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the number of catalyst that the market is facing. Still we point out good numbers from China and Australia will be a convenient excuse to reverse the previous sell-off.
Kiwi saw a bounce in New York trade to see a large tail in the daily charts though the real body was still big and black. At the open we have Wellignton traders gapping things lower though prices remained above the 23.6 Fib level. Indicators show mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd flat above the bullish signal line. Note we are at the brink of a possible mean reversion. In the 4H picture we have daily MACD heading lower with stochastic also seeing a bear cross in the making. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is poised to cross lower. For now look for a close below 0.8441(54) to get a bear market going. Otherwise take too long and 0.8554 becomes a possible bounce off point ahead of the European open. Alternatively buys may be taken coming off 0.8479, 38.2 Fib off the rally from March 13. AUDUSD After Thursday’s high wave candle we have AUDUSD selling off to the 23.6 Fib area of our rally from March 4 though we managed to see a bounce and closed above the strong support at the psychological 1.0500. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Aussy appears to be a well supported chart though we have events risks with Australian Home Loans at 0130GMT consensus calling for 1.6%, the higher the read the better. China will also be releasing GDP, Investments, and Retail Sales data among others at 0200GMT. Recall strong Chinese numbers will be good for the Aussy. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals from 4H indicators while hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic seeing a bullish divergence. It would best to wait for Chinese and Australian data before taking action. NZDUSD Kiwi saw a bounce in New York trade to see a large tail in the daily charts though the real body was still big and black. At the open we have Wellignton traders gapping things lower though prices remained above the 23.6 Fib level. Indicators show mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd flat above the bullish signal line. Note we are at the brink of a possible mean reversion. In the 4H picture we have daily MACD heading lower with stochastic also seeing a bear cross in the making. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is poised to cross lower. For now look for a close below 0.8441(54) to get a bear market going. Otherwise take too long and 0.8554 becomes a possible bounce off point ahead of the European open. Alternatively buys may be taken coming off 0.8479, 38.2 Fib off the rally from March 13. 
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | No Comments »April 12th, 2013 @ 1:10 am by Mark De La Paz
AUDUSD Aussy is a highwave candle in the daily charts with prices seeing its highs Thursday just around the moderate resistance of 1.0577(82). Daily indicators has stochastic just above 80 though macd has a new bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears with a divergence in stochastic as prices continue to see new high, macd’s has a new bear cross. From the hourly picture we have mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd bearish. With signs of lost momentum the prefer course of action is to remain sidelined a close above 1.0582 should reinvigorate the buy side, otherwise we risk a rejection as time pass. GBPUSD Cable managed to see a follow through to its bounce off the EMA lines closing within striking distance of the key resistance at 1.5422, 38.2 Fib retracement of the sell-off from December highs, 1.6379. Indicators show stochastic in overbought levels while macd is still heading up. Note we have a pattern of bullish breakouts and long drawn out period of congestion afterwards from the daily charts. In the 4H picture we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels and macd points up. Hourly charts are also mixed with a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. We need to see an early bullish breakout through the 1.5422 area, take too long and we risk getting a rejection. GBPJPY Thursday saw GBPJPY with a strong close just under the 132.52 price point. Despite the whipsaw market we still managed to see a decent real body suggesting bulls retained control in the end. Daily indicators continue to have a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought levels and macd’s rising. Intraday however we are seeing bearish signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought levels while prices continue to crawl up and macd’s also heading lower. From the hourly picture we have a new bear cross in macd and stochastic is heading down. Given the intraday picture we need an early push beyond 153.52 to sustain bullish momentum otherwise you risk a rejection from the 153.52 region going into European trade. AUDJPY Thursday was a whipsawish trade for Aussy-Yen with the daily candlestick set to turnout to be a bearish ‘dragonfly doji’. Indicators in the big picture remain bullish with stochastic in overbought areas and macd’s rising though we have a huge gap between prices and the daily EMA lines which a ‘dragonfly doji’ could suggest as in need of covering. In the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in 4H stochastic while macd is also heading lower, even as candlesticks form a possible double top. Hourly charts themselves also has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for a close below 104.96 triggering a pullback play perhaps down to the moderate support at 103.73. USDJPY We are set to close Thursday with either a ‘hanging ma’n or ‘dragon fly doji’ warning signals for a bearish reversal. From indicators we continue to see a confluence of buys with stochastic crawling overbought and macd’s heading up. In the lower time frames however we have mixed signals, with 4H stochastic pointing up and macd down while the hourly charts are the opposite with a bearish stochastic and bullish macd. At this point technically neutral though bears may argue flagging momentum. Consider shorts on a close below 99.61 though and hourly close above 100.00 should be enough to buoy bullish sentiment. Note we also have BoJ chief Kuroda speaking before a Yomiuri event, at 0310 GMT where he may once more talk on the banks agenda of re-inflating the economy. Mcu earlier we will also have the Tertiary Industrial Activity Index at 2350GMT the consensus calling for a bounce of 0.8% EURJPY We are set to see EURJPY with another bullish daily candle closing above the previous days highs though ranges have tighten of late. From indicators we have stochastic flat in overbought levels while macd is also rising. Note despite the gap between prices and EMA lines we have little mean reversion warnings. In the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence out of 4H stochastic woth macd’s heading lower. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also at the brink of a bear cross. Given the matching technical argument for a rally and a pullback we consider EURJPY as a possible straddle, a close above 131.10 will be seen as a buy while a close under 130.45 will be a trigger for shorting. EURUSD Euro has thus far managed to hold on to its gains for Thursday with prices just under the key resistance level of 1.3113, note the daily candle sticks is set to be a bullish engulfing. Among indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels with macd heading up and prices bouncing off the 55D EMA. Intraday we have had a hanging man in 4H charts while stochastic has just crossed lower and macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has macd heading lower while stochastic appear poised to oscillate around the oversold threshold. Given these we prefer completing our intraday double top pattern, consider shorts from just under 1.3113 the immediate objective at 1.3042 possibly down to the 1.3040 area. Alternatively a push above 1.3138 could trigger further gains. Note we have an ongoing two day meeting by the EcoFin.
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | No Comments »April 11th, 2013 @ 1:39 am by Mark De La Paz
AUDJPY Aussy Yen lead the rally among the yen pairs as a firmer commodity currencies and a broadly weaker Yen supported the move up. In daily charts we have negated the implication of Tuesday’s high wave spinning top, with the likely close above 105.00 also taking out a psychological price point. Indicators has daily stochastic flat at extreme overbought levels whuke macd is also rising. Note we have data for both Australia and Japanm the former with key Jobs numbers. Intraday we have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd has a bullish crossover in the making. Hourly charts has a flat macd at nearly the same rates as its signal while stochastic oscillates around 80. Given the big picture we prefer remaining sidelined until we have gone through the Japanese and Australain release though a close above 105.26 and a bounce off 104.25 may be seen as bullish entry signals. USDJPY We are set to close the Wednesday candle for USDJPY with a bullish engulfing though failing to take out the psychological 100 area as ranges appear to have tightened. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in overbought levels and a bullish daily macd. In the lower time frames 4H charts show mixed signals with stochastic crawling overbought though macd has yet to see a bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has an indecisive series of candles and stochastic while macd is also bullish. Consider buys on a push past the psychological 100.00 though an alternative entry could be a bounce off 99.61. Note we have a slew of numbers from Japan at 2350GMT with the Core Machinery Orders likely to see center stage with its expected bounce of 6.9% from a prior 13.1% contraction. GBPJPY Cable-Yen is set to close the day above Tuesday’s high wave highs invalidating that pattern. Indicators show daily stochastic at extremely overbought levels while macd is also pushing higher. Looking at intraday charts we have had a ‘hanging man’ in the 4H picture managing to climb back up with its long tail underscoring the potential upside. Stochastic is at overbought levels while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is also topping out though with data coming out of Japan we would rather be sidelined. Given the big picture bias is for the upside though a buy dips to 152.38 is the only entry option. EURJPY Wednesday saw EURJPY closing right around the moderate resistance, Tuesday highs of 130.10, enough to offset the prior high wave spinning top. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling overbought while macd is still rising. In the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is also bearish. Price action has been indecisive with a railroad among the candlesticks. In hourly charts we have a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels along with bearish macd’s. Immediate risk calls for a pullback in EURJPY a push under 130.10 could pave the way for a probe of the 129.36 area though we will adopt a buy on dips stance at that point. EURUSD Euro saw a rejection from the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from February highs at 1.3710, with the daily candlestick turning up with a long wick though the pattern itself falls short of being a ‘dark cloud cover’. At the moment we have prices just above the 55D EMA at 130.36 with daily stochastic poised to come-off overbought level though macd is pointing up. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd dropping. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of bears. Given the daily candlestick picture and intraday indicators we prefer looking for a push below 1.3036 as a bearish trigger, alternative entry will be coming off 1.3075. AUDUSD Aussy is set to close the Wednesday candle with a ‘Three White Soldiers’ pattern with the break of 1.0500 likely to hold. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for overbought levels while macd has a new bullish crossover. We appear to have a widening gap with the daily EMA lines though little pressure for mean reversion is evident. In the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling overbought to confirm a bullish trend while macd’s is up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic poised to push higher while macd is bearish. Note we have data coming of Australia the jobs numbers at 0130GMT likely to be the key, as consensus forecast call for a drop by 6.7K in Employment Change following the blowout numbers in the previous month. We will use a straddle for the release with numbers turning positive seeing us open the buy side for a run to the September 2012 highs of 1.0624. Numbers under -15K would likely see a sharp pullback into our ‘Three White Soldier’ pattern.
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | 1 Comment »April 10th, 2013 @ 3:09 am by Mark De La Paz
AUDUSD Aussy saw a two day rally from the 38.2 Fib of the rally for March with prices taking a peak above the 1.0500 area in intraday action. Daily indicators has macd bottoming out nearing a bullish cross while stochastic has also crossed higher. Note we are set to close the days candle just under the strong resistance level at 1.0497(00). In the 4H picture we have a shooting star from the previous candle though stochastic continues to crawl in overbought levels and macd is pushing up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s with a new bear cross and stochastic poised to push oversold. Given the latter and the strength of our immediate resistance initial risk calls for a pullback to the 1.0447 area, 38.2 Fib of the rally for the last two days. Given the overall trend a close above 1.0497(00) in the hourly charts would still mean we look for a rally. GBPUSD Tuesday saw Cable bouncing off the previous weeks breakout point following the monday pullback. We are set to close the daily candle back above the 55D EMA while stochastic is overbought and macd rising. From the lower time frames we have a ‘shooting star’ in the 4H candles with a lower high than Fridays opening the possibility of a double top. Indicators has stochastic having trouble in pushing overbought while macd as well is stuck just about to see a bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part already has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd crossing lower just now. Immediate risk calls for a pullback to at least form the 4-Hour double top though we think Cable well supported. We prefer look for buys off the 15263, ideally 1.5237, 38.2 Fib and double top trigger. Aggressive shorts may be taken on a close below 1.5314. EURUSD Euro rallied Tuesday to see the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from February 1, 1.3710. We now have prices above the daily EMA lines while stochastic is overbought and macd is rising. Intraday we have a pattern of spike and congestion in the 4H candlesticks while stochastic at the moment is re-entering overbought areas and macd is flat though still above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is poised to cross lower. For the moment there is no sense of urgency with price action merely suggesting a loss of momentum. As such we prefer remaining sidelined though an hourly close below 1.3075 may be seen as a bearish entry. Alternatively look for a rejection off the 38.2 Fib at 1.3113 going into the European open. USDJPY Tuesday saw USDJPY pulling back to turn-out a hanging man near the close of the daily candle. Indicators see an overbought stochastic while macd is also heading up. Note we have had an 800 pip rally in USDJPY ever since the unveiling of a massive QE program by the BoJ last week. From the 4H picture we have a series of indecision candles while indicators show a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s poised to open lower while stochastic may be crossing up, for more indecision. For the moment we prefer remaining sidelined though a break of 98.57 should be a sell signalling a pullback following our huge rally. Consider shorts off the 100.00 psychological resistance level with tight stops above the area. EURJPY At the close we have a high wave doji in daily candles for EURJPY signalling a loss of momentum after a 1000 pip rally over the last four days. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also rising. From the lower time frames however we are starting to see a bear market with a bearish divergence in stochastic and macd’s crossing lower. Hourly charts as well has sell signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s opening down. Because of the extent of recent gains and the loss of momentum we prefer a sell-on rallies approach from just under 130.00(10) with stops well above the region while a break of 12937 is also a bearish entry.
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | No Comments »April 9th, 2013 @ 1:27 am by Mark De La Paz
NZDUSD Kiwi has thus far managed to hold above its 0.8448 breakout point with earlier attempts at pulling back finding a support around around the said price. From indicators we have a confluence of buys for the moment with prices also above daily EMA lines and fresh golden crosses. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought areas for thr 4H picture and crossing lower in the hourlies. The macd for its part has a bullish macd in 4H charts though hourly stochastic has just crossed lower. Note we have Business Confidence figures for New Zealand due at 2200GMT, a possible game changer should we turn-out well beyond previous results. Other wise we prefer looking for further gains given the technical breakout that we GBPUSD After a strong close and a strong start for the week we saw Cable pulling back to it breakout point at the 1.5262 area though daily indicators remain bullish. On the latter we have daily stochastic remaining overbought while macd is also heading up, note that our lows for monday correspond with the 38.2 Fib retracement for the Thursday/Friday rally. In the lower time frames stochastic is oversold while macd has also crossed down in 4H charts, but we have price action suggesting a bottom has been reached. From the hourly level we have mixed signals with stochastic rising and macd heading lower. For now we are looking for a possible bounce off the 1.5237 moderate support, inline with the overall view that the worst may be over as far as the years sell-off is concerned with government policy coming off the competitive devaluation tone. EURUSD In the end Euro saw a narrower candle monday, with the spinning top under the 55D EMA and previous highs suggesting a loss of momentum following the two day rally last week. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels while macd is pushing higher suggesting market is still in a counter trend to the lower highs lower lows pattern from February 1. Intraday we have a bearish divergence in 4H stochastic with macd’s topping off and charts showing a double top in the making. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic overbought and macd’s heading lower. For now the loss of momentum suggests the daily pattern from February remains in tack, looh for shorts from just under the 1.3039 highs with tight stops above 1.3052 and possible reversal on a push to 1.3073. Alternatively a close under 1.2970 is a bear market. USDJPY We continue to see the effects of Japanese Q.E. policy as the Yen pairs gapped higher at the open of Wellington Monday despite the poor US jobs numbers the week before. Note we are seeing a follow through rally courtesy of the optimistic tone from Alcoa as the US earning season begins. From indicators we have stochastic overbought while macd is pushing higher. In the lower time frames we have 4H candles suggesting bulls are just beginning to turnout in earnest with the earlier range play now seeing a succession of bullish candles for a possible ‘three white soldiers’ pattern. Indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought areas while macd is heading up. Hourly charts also has a bullish cross in macd and stochastic crawling on overbought territory. For now we prefer a buy on dips though an hourly close above 100.00 may trigger a technical rally. EURJPY After spening much of monday in a range play we have EURJPY seeing a further rally following its bullish gap, by midday NY trade as equties rallied on a strong start to the earnings season. We now have EURJPY at levels last seen in 2009 with indicators showing stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also rising. Note w ehave a huge gap between prices and the EMA lines though little hint of mean reversion thus far. From the 4H picture we have candlesticks slowly pushing up while stochastic is overbought and macd bullish. Hourly charts for their part has stocahstic in overbought levels while macd is waiting for a bullish crossover. For now we prefer a buy on dips to 128.95 the daily pivot though a push past 130.00 may also be seen as a bullish entry. GBPJPY As with most of the Yen pairs we have GBPJPY gapping up at the open of Wellington market only to see the subsequent trading day turn into a range play. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while macd is on the rise, note the hanging man from the canldes should be ignored as combined with the 3H wellington trade we have a bullish candle. In the lower time frames we have stochastic osciallting around the 80 area while macd is flat though bullish in the 4H picture. Hourly indictaors are bearish with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd heading lower. At this point we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the 150.60 region though a push past 152.07 is also a bullish entry. AUDUSD After gapping lower at the open and seeing a further sell-off from Wellington dealers we have Aussy changing course to rally back up the daily double top trigger at 1.0400 for a piercing pattern in the daily charts. Indicators has stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is bottoming out. Intraday we have a bullish confluence in 4H charts with stochastic overbought and macd crossing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is rallying. For now with NAB Businsee Confidence set for release at 0130GMT we prefer waiting for the results before taking action though technically we already have a bullish Aussy.
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | No Comments »April 8th, 2013 @ 1:02 am by Mark De La Paz
AUDCHF We have AUDCHF selling off to the 50 Fib retracement level of its rally From February at, 0.9665 a moderate support area. From indicators we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also dropping. In the lower time frames 4H stochastic has been crawling in oversold levels while macd is bearish. Hourly charts for their part has a double bottom while stochastic is pushing for oversold levels and macd has bottomed out. Given the immediate moderate support and double bottom forming out of the hourly price action we prefer looking for a bounce off 0.9665 possibly scaling in if the pattern gets trigger on a push past 0.9714.
GBPJPY GBPJPY has a bullish gap from the open with Wellington dealers trying to get a follow through to Fridays rally. Note we have across board gains for Yen pair though this is more about Japanese Q.E. rather than growing risk appetite considering the disappointing US jobs data. Indicator wise we have an overbought daily stochastic while macd is also pushing up. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oscillating in overbought levels while along with the hourly stochastic while macd for both time frames is bullish. For now we prefer a buy on dips to the psychological 150.00 area.
EURJPY Friday saw EURJPY continue to rally since the sharp reversal following Japanese moves at Q.E. Thursday. We have a weekly open past the previous swing highs with the bullish gap suggesting we look for a follow through rally. Note prices for the moment are just around the R1 in pivots at 128.06. Among indicators we have stochastic overbought and macd’s heading up though we have a huge gap between prices and EMA lines. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought in both 4-hour and hourly charts while macd’s are rising to underscore the bullish trend. Overall bias for Yen pairs is bullish, as such and with the new highs we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the 126.63 area allowing for the bullish gap to be covered first before the next surge. USDJPY Following the huge surge Thursday we have USDJPY opening with a bullish gap for the week as disappointing numbers from the US were shrugged off in the face of monetary expansion in Japan. Daily indicators remain bullish with stochastic overbought and macd rising. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s rising. Hourly charts has stochastic oscillating around 80 while macd is also heading up. Despite the indicators given that the bullish gap happened at the open of Wellington markets the prefered course of action is to allow for the gap to be covered before going long again. Consider buys from at least the 97.84 region. Fridays close is at 97.50. AUDUSD Aussy triggered a daily double top Friday with prices for the moment seeing little action but staying under the pattern and the 55D EMA though immediate support is also interesting the, 38.2 Fib of the March rally. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is heading lower. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears as hourly stochastic appear poised to push oversold while macd is dropping, following the bearish gap at the open. From the 4-hour picture we also see a confluence of bears as stochastic is poised to push oversold. A close under 1.0351 should see us with a follow through bear market, failure to do so early on will have us watching out for a rejection from 1.0377 in European trade. GBPUSD Friday saw Cable rally past the two week congestion ceiling, a strong resistance at 1.5262 with the subsequent price action seeing a close just under the daily highs and above the 55D EMA. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing overbought while macd’s are on the rise, it appears we may be looking for at least the 38.2 Fib of our sell-off from January at 1.5422. From the 4-hour picture we have stochastic reentering overbought areas to underscore a developing bullish trend while macds are heading up. In hourly we have a new bullish cross out of stochastic while macd is flat though still managing to stay above the signal line. Look for buys in Cable preferable coming off the key support area of 1.5262 though a push past 1.5364 could also be a bullish entry. EURUSD Euro rallied on poor US jobs numbers from Friday though we also see a sharp pullback in later New York trade. From the big picture we continue to have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows while prices appear contained below the 55D EMA. Daily indicators still look bullish with stochastic just pushing overbought and macd heading up. In intraday charts we have a mixed view from the 4H picture with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd begins to top-off. Hourlies has stochastic already pushing oversold while macd has just crossed lower. Given the mixed signals we prefer waiting for the next breakout, a close under 1.2971 will suggest we continue the big picture lower highs and lower lows while a close above 1.3047 could lead to further Euro gains. Note take too long to break anywhere and we will look for a rejection from 1.3047 in European morning trade.
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | No Comments »April 5th, 2013 @ 1:23 am by Mark De La Paz
GBPUSD After taking a peek below the trigger of a double top pattern market enthusiasm following Japanese liquidity boosting efforts saw Cable pushing back inside its daily double top heading for highs around the 1.5262 price point. We risk forming triple tops among the daily charts. From indicators we have daily macd’s heading up while stochastic is poised to cross higher. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with stochastic pushing overbought and macds heading up. Note this started with a piercing pattern from the days lows. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is topping off. As with the Euro risk for us is markets pulling back ahead of today’s NFP announcement. Consider shorts from just under 1.5262, our strong resistance with stops ideally just above the said price potentially at the 1.5298 moderate resistance. EURUSD After all the rumors of a rate cut the ECB opted to keep rates steady following the governing councils meeting though the subsequent press conference suggests a growing split among the members with some opting for an easing. Knee-jerk response by the markets was to sell-off during the press conference though a turn-around in New York trade saw us close above the 21D EMA line. From indicators we have macd’s opening up while stochastic is poised to push into overbought levels. In the lower time frames we have buy signals from 4H macd and stochastic with the latter pushing into overbought area while hourly charts has macd’s heading up and stochastic trying to stabilize around the 80 region. With key employment situation numbers due out of the US the prefered course of action ahead of its release will be to remain sidelined though a pullback is likely with people opting to book gains ahead of the discontinuity the news presents. AUDUSD Thursday saw Aussy with a big high wave spinning top helping form a double top pattern in the daily charts as the strong resistance at 1.0497(00) held along with the 34D EMA support. With this we now have a fractal pattern in the daily charts. Among indicators we have macd’s with a bear cross while stochastic is also poised to cross lower. Intraday we have stochastic oscillating around the oversold area from the 4H picture while macd is also bearish with the main line under zero, price charts themselves have triggered an SHS pattern. Hourly indicators look mixed with a bearish stochastic and macd heading up. Given the pattern we prefer looking for a test of the trigger at 1.0385, consider shorts on a close under 1.0425 in the hourly picture. Alternative entry is a rejection from 1.0454. NZDUSD At the close we have a very long tail in our daily charts for Kiwi though the candles form a fractal pattern suggetsing we are vulnerable to further weakness. Daily indicators has a bearish divergence out of stochastic while macd is heading up. Note we have golden crosses from the daily EMA lines. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd still bearish in the 4H period. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd pointing up. Given the mixed view from intraday charts and the proximity to the 21D EMA along with the daily fractal immediate risk calls for a pullback to the 0.8350(54) area, 21D EMA. Though we will be looking for a bounce off those EMA lines. USDJPY Thursday saw the BoJ deciding to do massive QE under the Kuroda leadership with the money based allowed to expand rapidly under a half-Trillion dollar bond buying program. Note we have already seen a huge rally across the board among the Yen pairs though an easy testimony bu Kuroda before the Japanese diet later would suggest there is more upside to the Yen pairs. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has just crossed up. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic crawling above the 80 area while macd’s continue to head up. Hourly indicators has stochastic oscillating around the 80 threshold while macd is flat under the signal line. For now given the extent of yesterdays rally we are cautiously bullish for USDJPY.
Posted in Forex FunnyMentals | No Comments »April 3rd, 2013 @ 11:48 pm by Mark De La Paz
AUDUSD We are set to see either a ‘shooting star’ or a ‘gravestone’ doji at the close of Wednesday’s candle with this peak forming a second top for a potential double top pattern. From indicators we have daily stochastic still pointing up while macd’s see a new bear cross. In the lower time frames we have a ‘three inside down’ pattern from 4H charts while with macd’s poised at a bear cross while stochastic is heading for oversold areas. Hourly charts for their part has an oversold stochastic while macd is heading lower. From the fundies we have key releases as Building Approvals for February is seen rebounding by 2.4% while Retail Sales is expected to keep up with expansion seen at 0.3%. Given the opposing views of technicals and fundies we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for the Aussy releases first, 0030GMT. EURUSD We appear to have a counter trend forming over the last few days with Euro seeing higher lows since Wednesday the previous week though prices remain under 1.2876(81) 50 Fib retracement for the rally from last July. Recall overall trend has been bearish since February with prices getting rejected off the 21D EMA line repeatedly. Daily indicators however has a confluence of buys with a new bullish cross in macd and stochastic poised to push overbought. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals out of 4H stochastic and macd with the former poised to cross lower and the latter seeing a new bullish cross. Hourly charts show indecisive trading out of NEw York with a long series of spinning top while stochastic has crossed lower and macd is topping off. Note that we have this months ECB Rate decision Thursday suggesting the prudent course of action will be to remain uncommitted until we get the latest comments. USDJPY USDJPY is set to form a fractal in daily charts though failing to see a follow through rally Wednesday to the prior daily hammer off 55D EMA. Note we have the results of the first BoJ MPC meeting presided over by Kuroda today. Currently we have prices just under the 55D EMA though we’ve been here with Tuesdays long tail. For the moment we have stochastic poised to push oversold while the macd is also bearish from the daily time frame. In the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also crossing lower though we may have a higher low. Hourly charts has mixed signals. For now though what matters will be the BoJ decision and Press Conference, any surprise from Kuroda would likely mean money printing hence an excuse to see the Yen pairs higher. NZDUSD The bullish breakout off a symetric triangle in Kiwi appear to be losing momentum with the Wednesday candle set to close as a high wave spinning top, a qualifiable tweezer top with Tuesdays wick. Note we appear to have a wide gap as well with the daily EMA lines though their latst signal were golden crosses. Both daily stochastic and macd’ are still heading higher. From the lower time frames we have a double top in 4H charts with macd’s just crossing lower and stochastic also heading down. Hourly indicators look mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is dropping, again the double top is evident from here. Given the big picture we prefer looking for a close below 0.8395 to signal a possible bear market. GBPUSD Following the rejection from 1.5262 Tuesday we spent much of Wednesday consolidating in Cable with prices just above the trigger of a daily double top, 1.5092. Among indicators we have stochastic heading lower while macd is at risk of a bearish cross and and prices are just under the bearish daily EMA lines, immediate resistance is 21D EMA. In the lower time frames we appear to have a shooting star out of 4H candlesticks while macd is bearish and stochastic poised to cross lower as well. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic trying to come-off oversold levels while macd is technically bullish. Note we have the BoE with its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement later on, it would be best to wait for the fact before taking action. EURJPY Wednesday saw limited range for EURJPY seeing just above a 100 pips when averages say 162. We still have a valid double top pattern in daily charts with 118.68 as its trigger though we are also waiting for a possibly very dovish BoJ announcement. Indicators still see an oversold daily stochastic while macd’s are heading lower. Note we have daily EMA lines with dead crosses. Intraday we have a bullish divergence in 4H macd’s though stochastic is poised to push oversold, price action has been indecisive since late New York. Note we also have a double bottom forming out of 4H candles the last few days. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears in the making. As with USDJPY though we prefer staying sidelined before we can confirm BoJ policy. AUDJPY Following a spike in Australian Retail Sales, 1.3% against an 0.3% consensus we have AUDJPY bouncing off the 97.04 moderate support to form what could be the second trough of a double bottom pattern in the 4H picture. From the daily charts we are coming off the 55D EMA while stochastic is off oversold areas and macd is still dropping. Note we are still inside the daily EMA lines. In intraday charts we have stochastic coming off oversold levels at the 4H time frame while macd is now bouncing off the signline. Hourly charts has macd bottoming out while stochastic is poised to cross up and macd is bottoming out. For now we are already long in AUDJPY from 97.315 with stops at 97.00 and the Trade Manager looking out for partial profits at 97.615 and 98.015.
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