Live Trading Room Quick Links:
Forex Academy Quick Links:
Misc. Quick Links:
Language:
English

Articles by Mark De La Paz

January 21st, 2015 @ 12:35 pm by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

Despite Wellington markets already long close for the day and Europe seeing its midday break we have Kiwi still seeing limited action for Wednesday reading only 56 pips in the daily range so far despite a weighted average of 110. Note that intraday charts have now formed a double bottom in the hourly scale with its breakout point at 0.7678 while wjile the daily pivot is at 0.7681, a better entry point for bulls chasing a break out.

NZDUSDH1

In the bigger picture yesterdays dipin Kiwi has brought us to our range plat floor of the last four months following the sell-off in late September of 2014. Interestingly a case may actually be made for a very gradual higher low and higher high for the said daily scale consolidation. Of course breaking the topside of the range for now is out of the question given the lack of fundamental excuses to do so though a test of the 0.7900 area would be interesting.

NZDUSDDaily

Click here to read the full article.

January 20th, 2015 @ 1:02 pm by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

European currencies have been quiet for the most part as market players appear to be mulling their plans ahead of Thursday’s big announcement by the ECB. That said much of the days action has been with Cable after an early sell-off in Asia saw a turn-around on M&A talk with Infrastructure PLC selling a stake in Eversholt Rail to CK Investments SA in a deal that’s giving Eversholt an enterprise value of 2.5 billion pounds. that said we expect things to be nearing the days top absent other catalyst as we have well exceeded the daily averages already.

GBPUSDH1

Click here to read the full article.

January 19th, 2015 @ 2:14 pm by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

Pre-ECD meeting talks thus far have been confusing as battle lines are drawn. With the European Court of Justice issuing an opinion Wednesday that the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions program was legal many in the markets are expecting a QE move, including the SNB which prompted the CHF carnage Thursday. Among politicians we have French Pres. Francois Hollande already announcing that the ECB will be adopting QE this week, perhaps with intel from the DGSE (just kidding here folks), while as one would expect Germany’s Angela Merkel sees status quo predicting that it would not be a fateful week for the Euro.

EURUSDDaily

Click here to read the full article.

January 19th, 2015 @ 12:01 pm by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

Today’s releases from Australia has had a minimal impact for the market with price action seeing only 49 pips so far going into the middle of the European trading day despite an average daily range of 112. Among the figures we saw were the MI Inflation Gauge reading flat against a prior 0.1% while New Motor Vehicle Sales came out better than before at 3.0% against a previous contraction. From a technical perspective we appear to have a higher low and higher high turn-around in the making for daily charts as Thursday’s swissy carnage gave us a boost from the crosses to 0.8294 continuing the bounce off the psychological 0.8000 area. For now Friday’s failure to give us a new high suggest a search for the next higher low providing us an entry for fresh longs with 0.8154 the 61.8 Fib retracement of the previous weeks up leg as our candidate.

AUDUSDDaily

 

Note we are hearing talk of the Aussy as the next haven currency as the SNB broke the unspoken rule of monetary policy regarding “policy stability”. Glenn Stevens may have been calling for the Aussy at 0.75 but he hasn’t been leading the markets with the impression that the RBA was doing something about it. Just a reminder “haven equals strength” in times of uncertainty.

Click here to read the full article.

January 15th, 2015 @ 9:41 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

In what could be seen as a sign of no confidence on the single currency, the Swiss National Bank has decided to remove its long standing floor of 1.2000 counting on a further cut into negative rates from -0.25% to -0.75% to prevent the Swiss Franc from appreciating. This is having little impact though and few banks are taking the other side of the trade for EURCHF at the moment. Of interest here is what this all implies going forward, its not actually hard to keep a currency week as in the case of SNB’s floor but it does say something about their confidence of the currency that they are no longer willing to keep an unlimited amount in the balance sheet.

MetaTrader - FX Clearing

Click here to read the full article.

January 14th, 2015 @ 1:45 pm by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

Half a day later following the release of the European Court of Justice’s ruling on the legality of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions program we find the Euro back to where it started with the knee-jerk sell-off to lows of 1.1727 unable to get a follow through in the subsequent periods. More broadly we appear to be seeing higher lows developing the daily charts of other dollar pairs underscoring our thesis of an extended greenback.

MetaTrader - FX Clearing

As of this writing we appear to have traders latching on to an excuse for pushing this theory as December Retail Sales surprisingly saw a sharp contraction to read -0.9% against consensus forecast of an 0.2% read in the headline figure even as prior results were also revised lower to 0.4% from 0.7%. Core figures too cameout poorly at -1.0% with a revision in the prior to 0.1% from 0.5%.

 

Click here to read the full article.

January 14th, 2015 @ 9:51 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

The European Central Bank has just won one of its key hurdle for implementing an outright quantitative easing program with the European Court of Justice deciding that the banks OMT Program (Outright Monetary Transactions) was legal. OMT which sees the ECB buying sovereign bonds issued by EU member states from the secondary market allows for the ECB in theory to support a faltering EU member state without directly intervening which would require greater consensus among European leaders.

The program was initially challenged in the German Federal Constitutional Court by members of the Bundestag with the former referring the issue to the ECJ. In its decision the ECJ’s Attorney General  Cruz Villalon has indicated that the OMT is legitimate provided:

  • that there is no direct involvement of financial assistance to a member state in question
  • the bank must outline its reason for adopting unconventional measures

While the conditions provided seems to be a counter check for the ECB’s ability to just handover money to a member state it would not be difficult to imagine using other ECB tools something as simple as Draghi’s moral suasion to get the private sector to first buy the bonds at reasonable rates of a faltering member state then have the ECB providing a backstop guaranteeing a buyer of last resort in the secondary market.

For traders this means we once again have an excuse togo ahead and test the 1.1753 region on our way to 1.1640.

EURUSDMonthly

Click here to read the full article.

January 12th, 2015 @ 5:50 am by Mark De La Paz

Click here to read the full article.

After all the whippy price action following the release of the US Employment Situation report we found ourselves facing a weaker dollar at the close with the daily candles all suggesting that a pull-back if not a turn-around is in the works. What is surprising here is that the US report while not perfect was mostly a plus for the greenback with another 252,000 jobs added against the consensus forecast of merely 241,000 and prior figures, which were already a blowout adjusted even further up to 353,000 from 321,000 originally. This even as the unemployment rate eased unexpectedly to 5.6% from 5.8%. So what can be concluded out of this? Perhaps the dollar has gotten way ahead of itself during the thing trading conditions of the holidays.

MetaTrader - FX Clearing

Going over our charts for now we have some good candidates to go look for further dollar weakness with AUDUSD triggering a double bottom following Friday’s close above 0.8157 and USDJPY now forming a second lower top in the weekly charts suggesting the 155.57 trigger for the weekly double top pattern could soon be in-play. For Euro and Cable though things are a bit more murky daily candles in the single currency merely have a piercing pattern while Friday appears to have been the follow though for a hammer in GBPUSD’s case.

Click here to read the full article.

Our Global Forex Community

Follow us on Twitter! Join us on Facebook! Watch us on YouTube! Stumble Us!

Advertising

Next Free Forex Webinar

Free Market Commentaries

Advertising

Forex Links

Educational Partners

The Geek Knows
AgriMoney.com
Traders' Magazine

Finance Blogs Blogarama - The Blog Directory Fave this Blog on Technorati