Articles by Mark De La Paz

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0293 minor / 1.0307 minor / 1.0336 moderate
Support: 1.0272 minor / 1.0250 minor / 1.0215(20) moderate

Aussy has seen a fractal pattern in the daily charts with prices for the moment pushing past its resistance at 1.0293 the 61.8 Fib retracement of our rally off March 4 lows. we may be set foe mean reversion with the 21D EMA at 1.0348, even as daily macd’s bottom out and stochastic come off oversold levels. From the 4H picture we have a cup and handle pattern while stochastic is poised to push overbought and macd is rising.Hourly charts for their part also has another confluence of buys. Immediate risk calls for sustaining the bullish reversal break out a rally to the projected high of 1.0347 just around the 21D EMA. Note we have a market holiday in both Australia and New Zealand.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1439.01 minor / 1456.39 minor / 1477.97 minor
Support: 1425.33 moderate / 1404.61 minor / 1386.20 moderate

Over the past week and a half we have seen gold slowly recoup some of its losses though we are barely above the 38.2 Fib of the drop from April 8 highs. From the fundamental picture people question the main thesis of strong gold, as years of quantitative easing by the Fed has thus far seen little pickup in inflation. Indicators show daily stochastic just coming off overbought levels while macd has also just crossed higher. In the lower time frames we have muted price action and double tops forming though indicators has stochastic pushing overbought and macd above the signal line. Hourly charts has a bullish macd and stochastic above the signal line. With the bullish breakout in Wednesday’s close we prefer looking for a follow through rally towards the daily EMA lines, with stops tightly under 1425.33.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5297 moderate / 1.5333 minor / 1.5368 moderate
Support: 1.5258 minor / 1.5231 minor / 1.5213 moderate

Thus far, Cable has been stuck in a range play for the week oscillating around the 21D and 34D EMA’s while 55D is keeping the top. Since March we have been in a bullish channel with the current range play jsut around the channel support line. Indicators show a bullish daily stochastic while macd is heading lower. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with the charts suggesting an attempt on 1.5297 is on going. Note we also have a double bottom from the 4H picture with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd rising. Hourly charts for their part has a new confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing overbought and macd with a new bullish cross. Immediate risk calls for a rally getting a follow through to the bounce off our channel support line. Bulls however need to see a close above 1.5297 before committing to the buy side.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 102.52 minor / 102.84 moderate / 103.50 minor
Support: 102.06 moderate / 101.53 moderate / 101.21 minor

As with the most of the other Yen pairs we ended the day with an indecision candle, a spinning top as bears could not get the Yen to strengthen despite the excuses for risk aversion. We have prices at the moment above the daily EMA lines though charts are well resisted by the 61.8 Fib retracement level, at 102.84. Daily indicators has stochastic below the signal line and macd’s heading lower though we need to push through the 21D EMA to get the bear market going. Intraday we have a confluence of buys from 4H macd and stochastic though price action has been mixed. Hourly charts has a bearish stochastic with macd flat though above its signal line. Given the lack of conviction we prefer staying sidelined though AUDJPY should be a sell coming off 102.84, 61.8 Fib retracement of the drop from April 11. Alternatively we will consider a buy on dips to the 21D EMA at 101.53.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 152.00 minor / 152.45 moderate / 153.00
Support: 151.51 minor / 151.08 minor / 150.46 moderate

Cable Yen is set to close the Wednesday candle with a spinning top to underscore markets indecision. From indicators we have macd’s just under the signal line while daily stochastic is at risk of coming off the overbought mark. In line with the daily spinning top intraday charts has a railtrack for the 4H candles showing the inability to sustain any move on either side. Indicators show mixed signals as stochastic slowly comes off overbought levels while macd has crossed up. Hourly charts see the same pattern in price action, indecisive, while stochastic is bearish and macd has a new bullish cross. For now we suggest staying out of the market though a rejection from 152.54 is tradeable with stops just above the price while any buy would need to see a close above 152.54 first. Alternatively we are a buy on dips to the 150.46 price point.

EURJPY
Resistance: 129.79 minor / 130.00 psychological / 130.30 minor
Support: 129.42 minor / 128.90 moderate / 128.52 minor

EURJPY failed to get a follow through rally for the 180 turn from Tuesday, for another much smaller dragoon fly doji in the daily candles. Among indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is flat just under the signal line. As with USDJPY we have a valid double top forming from the daily picture with lower highs for the charts. In the lower time frames candlesticks are indecisive from the 4H picture with a rail tracking showing the reversals for our congestion, immediate signal bearish for stochastic and technically bullish in macd. Hourly charts has the same technically bullish macd and bearish stochastic. For now we remain sidelined though the long taiuls in daily charts suggests a buy on dips to moderate support levels such as 128.90 or on a close above the 129.79 highs. Alternatively an hourly close below 129.45 will be a bearish entry. Note there is little conviction in the marketing suggesting a hit and run tactic.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.60 minor / 100.00 strong / 100.33 minor
Support: 99.31 minor / 98.96 minor / 98.52 moderate

We have been seeing a contraction for daily averages in USDJPY with the 100 level starting to look like a strong resistance and a double top forming out of the months price action. Note we did see a 750 pip rally early in the moneth after the first Kuroda BoJ meeting. Indicators has stochastic at the brink of coming off overbought levels while macd has push above its signal line. From the lower time frames we have a bearish bias as 4H charts show stochastic come-off overbought levels with macd’s heading lower as well. Hourly charts for their part are technically bearish though there is a lack of negative slope. Price action from the different time frames suggests indecision. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though with the strong resistance at 100.00 we are interested in looking for a rejection or using a close below 99.31 as a bearish entry. Buys can only be considered on a close above 100, preferable in the daily scale.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3023(27) moderate / 1.3045 minor / 1.3069 minor
Support: 1.2973 strong / 1.2939 minor / 1.2899 minor

Euro saw a bearish close under the daily EMA line though facing a strong support at 1.2973 a Fib level from multiple timeframes. Indicator wise we have a bearish bias with stochastic looking to push oversold and macd’s dropping. Prices are also below the flat daily EMA lines. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals as 4H charts see stochastic crossing up above the EMA lines while macd is bearish. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with macd heading up and stochastic also rising. Given the lower time frames and our strong support, we prefer looking for base building and buys off the 1.2973 area, though a close below it will trigger the next big down leg down to the 1.2744 region.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 152.03 minor / 1.5254 moderate / 153.00 minor
Support: 151.31 minor / 150.87 minor / 150.43 moderate

GBPJPY has a long tail at the close for a bullish ‘Dragon Fly Doji’ with price action bouncing off the 21D EMA. Among indicators we have stochastic coming out of overbought levels while macd is also heading lower. From the 4H picture we have a hanging man from midday New York trade with price managing to hand on to the high despite a bearish macd and stochastic looking at risk of a bear cross. Hourly charts has mixed signals with stochastic seeing a bearish divergence while macd is bullish. Given the daily dragonfly doji we prefer looking for a follow through rally, on a close above 152.03. Alternative bullish entry will be coming off 149.56 the 21D EMA.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.00 psychological / 130.65 moderate / 131.20 moderate
Support: 129.45 moderate / 128.90 moderate / 128.52 minor

Tuesday saw EURJPY with a ‘dragon fly doji’ at the close with a long tail bouncing off the daily EMA lines though indicator are bearish with macd marginally under the signal line. From the lower time frames we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd is poised to cross higher in the 4H picture. Hourly indicators also has a confluence of buys with stochastic oscillating around 80 and macd heading up. Given the big picture and intraday setup EURJPY could be seen as a buy from just above 129.45 with a rally towards 130.65 for our main objective potentially a run to swing highs at 131.12.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 102.13 minor / 102.54 minor / 102.84 moderate
Support: 101.71 minor / 101.37 moderate / 100.85 moderate

After the ‘dark cloud cover’ in Daily charts monday and initial sell-off for the Tuesday trade we ended up with a daily hammer with prices bouncing off the daily EMA lines. In daily indicators we have macd’s heading lower while stochastic is also at risk of a bear cross though we have potential market moving releases from both Japan and Australia. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in the making for 4H charts as stochastic pushes overbought and macd bottoms out. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic overbought and macd’s rising. Given our data from Japan and Australia along with the technical picture a perfect scenario would be for CSPI to disappoint while Australian CPI number show their anticipated jump sparking a rally in AUDJPY charts.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.53 minor / 99.88(94) moderate / 100.30 minor
Support: 99.20 minor / 98.89 minor / 98.50 moderate

After mondays rejection from the previous swing lows daily candlesticks looks confused with a hammer for the Tuesday trade. Indicator wise we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also crossing higher. Note we have been bouncing off the EMA lines in our daily charts with the 21D EMA with range of current prices, a big picture double top also remains a valid proposition. In intraday charts we are mostly seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic overbought and macd’s below their signal line. From the hourly picture we have mixed results as well with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is bullish. Note we have CSPI figures at 2350GMT with consensus forecasts calling for a contraction at -0.4% this will likely help keep the Japanese Yen weak. For now look for a close above 99.53 to trigger a rally, a close under 99.20 in-turn may also be seen as a sell signal.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0279 minor / 1.0306 moderate / 1.0336 moderate
Support: 1.00250 minor / 1.0215(20) moderate / 1.0182 moderate

Aussy is set to close with a ‘hammer’ following the monday ‘high wave’ candle. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to come-off oversold levels while macd is bearish and the EMA lines have new dead crosses. Note however the huge gap between prices and the daily EMA lines suggesting we look for possible mean reversion from here. In the lower timeframes we have stochastic overbought in 4H charts with macd just opening even as price action begin to show bullish momentum building. Hourly charts has a series of bullish engulfing patterns while stochastic is overbought and macd pointing higher. Immediate risk calls for a follow through to the likely bullish reversal close, a mean reversion to the daily EMA lines, though average ranges suggest it may take more than a day to get such a climb to the EMA’s. .

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8437 moderate / 0.8460 minor / 0.8479 moderate
Support: 0.8412 minor / 0.8392 moderate / 0.8375 minor

Kiwi saw a huge jump following the release of the latest RBNZ statement where interest rates remained steady but an observation of an economic pickup was made. From the daily charts we are now set to have a ‘hammer’ or a bullish ‘dragon fly doji’ at the close. Indicator wise we have stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is still bearish. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys signals in both 4H and hourly macd and stochastic given the spike from an hour back. The hourly stochastic however is at risk of crossing lower as prices pullback to the breakout point. For now we are looking for a bounce off the 0.8412 support level, with the latest RBNZ decision likely to keep the currency well supported. Note from the big picture we are beginning to bounce off the 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from March 12 lows.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0279 minor / 1.0306 minor / 1.0336 moderate
Support: 1.0266 minor / 1.0235 minor / 1.0202 moderate

Aussy appears set for a daily high wave candle which could signal that our sell-off from the 11th April may be over. Indicators however continue to show a bearish bias with the EMA lines seeing new dead crosses and stochastic pushing oversold while macd is dropping. Note Tuesday’s calendar suggests markets may be looking at Flash PMI figures from China, 0145GMT as a possible market mover. In the lower time frames, 4H stochastic has a bullish divergence while macd is trying to open up. Hourly charts for their part look mixed with stochastic just crossing lower and macd opening up. For the moment we have a mixed market though with the potential high wave candle at the daily close we prefer looking for a push past 1.0279, taking the buy side in line with our bullish divergence. Keep a close eye on a possible inverted head and shoulder forming over the next few hours.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.00 minor / 130.69 minor / 131.12 moderate
Support: 129.45 minor / 128.90 moderate / 128.52 minor

After gapping higher at the open, EURJPY spent the Asian covering the gap, selling off and finally bouncing on strong US equity performance in afternoon trade for a long tail in the daily charts. Indicators has stochastic overbought while we wait for the macd flat lines to cross higher. With higher highs and higher lows still in the daily charts we may have to forgo the idea of a big picture double top. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing higher and macd’s poised at a bear cross, candlesticks suggests a loss of momentum for either side. Hourly charts are bearish with macd’s technically under the signal line while stochastic is also pointing down. With higher lows and higher highs over the past week we prefer looking for another surge up, consider buys off 128.90 better yet on an hourly close above 130.01 for a urge to 131.12.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 152.06 minor / 152.54 minor / 153.00 minor
Support: 151.45 minor / 150.87 minor / 150.43 moderate

We are set to see a ‘Hanging Man’ at the close of the monday candle though the long tail and covered gap suggests we may actually manage to get off the cliff. Among indicators we have daily stochastic looking to push overbought while macd has been flat below the signal line. In intraday charts we have a new bullish crossover from the 4H stochastic with macd at the brink of a bear cross. In hourly charts we have indecisive candlesticks while indicators are bearish with stochastic heading down and macd’s also pointing lower. Immediate risk calls for a test of the support though failure to close under 151.45 should see us bouncing off the said levels for a rally back up above critical resistances at 153.52.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 102.13 minor / 102.54 minor / 102.84 moderator
Support: 101.71 minor / 101.32 moderate / 100.88 minor

AUDJPY saw a congestion breakout Friday, only to see monday trade pulling back within range though bouncing off the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators show mixed signals with stochastic still heading yp and macd bearish though the bounce off 21D EMA suggests we are well supported. From the 4H picture we triggered a double top with the pullback to daily EMA lines though prices are now just under the patter trigger looking to crss higher. We have 4H stochastic with a new bullish cross while macd has also crossed lower. In hourly charts we have stochastic crossing higher while macd is also at the brink of a bullish crossover. Note we have Australian and Chinese data ahead, the latter with Flash Manufacturing figures while Aussie Leading Index is set at 0000GMT. We prefer remaining sidelined until then though bias is for pushing higher.

GBPCHF
Resistance: 1.4314 moderate / 1.4337 minor / 1.4373 moderate
Support: 1.4256 minor / 1.4224 moderate / 1.414 moderate

With the broader rally in Cable pairs, we have GBPCHF with a big white candle set to close near the days highs with charts looking poised to make a run through the key 55D EMA, 1.4314. Indicators show macd’s poised at a bullish crossover while stochastic pointing up. Note we are in thre process of turning a series of lower highs and lower lows from March 28. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in multiple time frames with the hourly stochastic oscillating around 80 to suggest a bullish trend. From the 4H picture we have stochastic overboght while macd is also heading up. For now we are looking for a push past the immediate moderate resistance at 1.4314, 55D EMA.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5299 moderate / 1.5368 moderate / 1.5384 minor
Support: 1.05271 minor / 1.5247 minor / 1.5215 moderate

Monday saw Cable bouncing off a channel support line to close around its highs and just under the 55D EMA. Daily indicators however are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is heading lower. Note we are still inside the daily EMA lines. From the 4H picture we appear to have a counter trend to our bullish daily channel with lower highs and lower lows since April 11 though for now indicators have a confluence of buys.Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought levels and macd still rising though for now we also see a bearish engulfing in the making. For now given the different directions between price action and the indicators we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for better vantage point before going long again. Alternative entry is a push past the 55D EMA at 1.5299

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8430 minor / 0.8460 minor / 0.8479 moderate
Support: 0.8392 moderate / 0.8375 minor / 0.8350 moderate

Kiwi ended yo inside the daily EMA lines, unable to hold on to its gains from yesterday with the 55D EMA providing a good support. Daily indicators continue to have a bearish bias with stochastic remaining oversold and macd’s heading lower. From the lower time frames we have a type B bullish divergence in stochastic while macd is beginning to open up. Hourly charts look mixed with stochastic up and macd’s down. For now given the 55D EMA we prefer looking for base building just above the said support at 0.8392 though an hourly close beneath 0.8392 could pave the way for a bear market.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3074 moderate / 1.3128 moderate / 1.3168 minor
Support: 1.3046 minor / 1.3026 minor / 1.3000 psychological

After a strong start, Euro Friday was unable to hold on to gains easing off its 38.2 Fib retracement for the sell-off from February 1st. We now find prices just above the daily EMA lines gapping at the open of Wellington though still under the daily pivot. Daily indicators has macd flat though just above its signal line while stochastic is poised to cross higher. From 4H charts we have an oversold stochastic while macd’s have crossed higher though still under the zero line. Hourly indicators look mixed with macd rising and stochastic dropping. Note we gapped higher at the open of Wellington. For now there is little impetus for price action though pattern for mondays gaps by Wellington is to have them covered at the open of Tokyo. Consider shorts from just under the daily pivot at 1.3074 immediate objective to take out the minor support at 1.3046. We shall also consider a buy on dips to the 1.3000 area.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5272 moderate / 1.5312 minor / 1.5368 moderate
Support: 1.5215 moderate / 1.5175 minor / 1.5143 moderate

Attempts to push back up above the daily EMA lines failed for Cable with, Fridays candle closing near its lows and seeing a long wick with a decent sized body. At the moment we have a confluence of bears in daily indicators stochastic having just pushed oversold while macd has also crossed lower. In the weekly charts we have an evening star following the Friday sell-off defined by a rejection from 38.2 Fibretracement of our sell-off for the year. In the lower timeframes we have lower highs and a lower low in the making for 4H charts with stochastic pushing oversold and macd crossing lower. Hourly charts has macd bearish while stochastic is in oversold levels. Immediate view is bearish looking for a close under 1.5215 to trigger a sell-off. Take too long to break lower and we actually risk a bounce off 1.5215 and a bounce from near your bullish channel support line.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0306 minor / 1.0336 moderate / 1.0358 minor
Support: 1.0268 moderate / 1.0246 moderate / 1.0202 moderate

Aussy has a bearish engulfing in weekly charts while Friday ended with a long wick a tight body as bulls head for the exit on weak commodity prices and Chinese data. Daily indicators has EMA lines poised to move further down for dead crosses with stochastic already oversold and macd’s dropping. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in the making as 4H macd is poised to cross lower again while stochastic is in oversold territory. Note we gapped lower at the open of Wellington markets. Hourly charts has a bearish macd, while stochastic is crawling in oversold levels. Immediate risk calls for a bearish breakout a push under 1.0268 should be consider as a possible sell. Take too long to break lower and you risk a bounce by the time European markets open. Alternatively we could look for shorts under 1.0336.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8422 minor / 0.8449 minor / 0.8479 moderate
Support: 0.8391 moderate / 0.8375 minor / 0.8350 moderate

Kiwi has a long wick in the daily charts from Friday while indicators are oversold with stochastic pushing under 20 and macd’s dropping. Note we have prices just above the 55D EMA with the EMA lines in general flattening out. In the lower timeframes we have a confluence of bears in both 4H and hourly charts. On the latter stochastic is oversold and macd is just crossing lower. Hourly charts has stochastic oscillating around 20 and macd’s dropping. Immediate risk calls for a break lower, with an hourly close below 0.8391 likely to signal further losses. Take too long to break lower and we risk bouncing off the 55D EMA, 0.8891.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.94(00) psychological / 100.67 minor / 101.43 moderate
Support: 99.48 minor / 99.09 moderate / 98.67 minor

WE have USDJPY starting the week with a bullish gap as Wellington dealing rooms adjust to the sharp rally from Friday. Prices for the moment are just under the psychological 100.00 level. Among indicators we have daily macd’s poised to cross up while stochastic is already overbought. Note we currently have prices just under the psychological 100 area with this rally starting off as a bounce from the daily EMA lines last Tuesday. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd is rising. Hourly charts are similarly bullish with an overbought stochastic and rising macd. Given the significance of our immediate resistance we prefer waiting for a close above the 100 level before taking the buy side of the market.

EURJPY
Resistances: 130.69 moderate / 131.12 moderate / 131.57 minor
Support: 130.20 minor / 129.53 minor / 128.95 moderate

Daily charts has EURJPY bouncing off the EMA lines since Tuesday with stochastic pushing into overbought levels while macd’s have begun to open higher. At the moment we are above the psychological 1.0 area, with the previous swing highs at 131.12, immediate resistance is R1 at 130.69. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with macd’s pushing higher and stochastic crossing back up into overbought levels. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic overbought and macd heading up. Given the lack of impetus we prefer looking for a confirmed bullish breakout, a close above 130.69. Alternatively a bounce off 128.95 may also be used for an entry.

Gold
Resistance: 1424.95 moderate / 1458.76 minor / 1477.62 minor
Support: 1391.50 minor / 1365.16 moderate / 1322.10 minor

Gold has seen its worst sell-off in the past two weeks though prices have recovered to atleast the 38.2 Fib retracement of your drop since the 9th of April. From indicators we have stochastic well on its way to overbought levels while macd has bottomed out. In the lower timeframes we have a confluence of buys in both the 4H and hourly levels. For the latter stochastic is overbought and macd has just crossed up. Note we are facing a moderate resistance with little reason to expect a sharp rally in Gold. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though spinning tops and Doji’s in the hourly charts may signal a possible double top from here. A close above 1424.95 could signal a sharper pullback.

USDJPY
Resistance: 98.50 moderate / 98.71 moderate / 99.08 minor
Support: 98.03 minor / 97.80 minor / 97.37 minor

USDJPY has managed to bounce the last three days following a huge drop monday though the real body of these candles has been getting smaller suggesting a loss of momentum. Among indicators we have daily stochastics pushing for overbought levels while macd has a bearish cross. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic overbought and macd poised to cross up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined with bulls needing a close above 98.50 to push things further while a close under 98.03 may be seen as a bearish entry. Note we do not have a huge catalyst for price action.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0336 moderate / 1.0395 moderate / 1.0425 minor
Support: 1.0293 minor / 1.0268 moderate / 1.0238 minor

Aussy is set to see a high wave daily candle for Thursday suggesting the worst may be over for the sell-off the past week and a half with prices just above 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from Narch 4. Daily indicators however remain bearish with stochastic oversold and macd’s pointing lower. In the lower time frames we have a possible double bottom in the making for 4H charts with 1.0336 as its trigger though indicators are mixed the macd indicators beginning toop open up while stochastic is heading down. Hourly charts for their part has a piercing pattern at the close of New York with indicators showing macd at the brink of a bullish cross and stochastic pointing higher. For now we prefer a buy on dips to the 1.0268 price point though a close above 1.0336 may also be seen as a bullish entry.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8425 minor / 0.8469 minor / 0.8510 minor
Support: 0.8390 moderate / 0.8350 moderate / 0.8307 minor

Kiwi is set to give us a narrow range candle for the Thursday trade with prices for the moment stuck within the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has 55D EMA as our immediate support while macd is dropping and stochastic at risk of pushing oversold. In 4H charts we are seeing a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold and macds opening lower. Hourly charts has stochastic crossing up while macd is bottoming out. Look for a push above 0.8425 to trigger possible buys as we begin to come-off oversold levels.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5312 minor / 1.5345 minor / 1.5379 moderate
Support: 1.5274 minor / 1.5215 moderate / 1.5175 minor

Cable pulled back to the neckline of a previous head and shoulder pattern with false breakouts of the said resistance in intraday charts. Daily indicators has mixed signals with stochastic crossing up and macd’s seeing a new bear cross. Note we have prices just around the daily EMA lines while price action attempts a resumption of the previous bear market. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals as stochastic crosses lower and macd’s see a bullish cross. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish confluence with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading up. Given the bearish primary trend from December and a rejection off its 38.2 Fib retracement level, along with the head and shoulder pattern in 4H charts we prefer looking for a bear market. Consider shorts on a break of 1.5274.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3057 minor / 1.3096 minor / 1.3137 moderate
Support: 1.3027 moderate / 1.3001 moderate / 1.2973 moderate

Euro saw a very limited range for the Thursday trade with prices sticking to the daily EMA lines. Indicators continue to show a mixed view with the macd still above its signal line while the daily stochastic has a bearish divergence. In the lower time frames we have a new bear cross from stochastic an and macd’s heading lower while price charts show a ‘dark cloud cover’ for the candlesticks though context suggests a limited effect as this was preceded by a consolidation and not a big uptrend. Hourly charts has stochastic in oversold territory while macd may be crossing lower. For the moment we would much rather remain sidelined looking for a break of either side of 1.3027, 38.2 Fib of our rally from the start of the month, or a push past 1.3047 our immediate resistance. ALternatively we may be able to look for a bounce off 1.3027 around the open of European markets with stops tightly under 1.3000(01), the psychological support.

EURJPY
Resistance: 128.09 minor / 128.95 moderate / 129.75 moderate
Support: 127.18 moderate / 126.35 moderate / 125.54 moderate

EURJPY closed Wednesday with a long wick, long tail, and a modest body underscoring how indecisive the market is. Charts show declining highs while the lows are advancing. Daily indicators themselves are mixed with macd seeing a bear cross while stochastic is pointing up. Note we do have prices bouncing from the daily EMA lines. In intraday charts we also have mixed signals as 4H stochastic crosses up and macd’s lower while hourly charts has stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd crossing up. We are in no mans land in need of a sustained break, Look for a close udner 126.35 the 21D EMA to generate a bear market while a push past 129.75 will be the bullish trigger.

EURCAD
Resistance: 1.3397 minor / 1.3443 minor / 1.3485 minor
Support: 1.3361 moderate / 1.3339 minor / 1.3305 moderate

Wednesday has EURCAD with a sharp reversal of earlier gains ending up as a ‘dark cloud cover’ with daily indicators showing a bear cross out of stochastic though the macd’s continue to point up. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic pushing oversold while macd is dropping though price charts suggests a loss of momentum. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping and the candlesticks show a series of tight indecisive markets. Given the big picture we appear to be at the brink of mean reversion, that said consider shorts on a close below 1.3361. Take too long to break lower and we will end up with a technical correction.

EURUSD
Resistance:1.3057 minor / 1.3098 minor / 1.3137 moderate
Support: 1.3000 psychological / 1.2973 minor / 1.2939 minor

Euro has once more exceeded the daily averages selling off back down into the daily EMA lines more than reversing the gains made Tuesday with a daily bearish engulfing in the works. From indicators we have had a bearish divergence in stochastic though daily macd continue to point up. In 4H charts we have a hammer for the New York close with the real body above the 38.2 Fib of our rally for April. Indicators show 4H stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence while macd bottoms out. Note we have very little in terms of catalyst on the Calendar for Thursday suggesting we look for a technical market. For now we have no sense of urgency though immediate risk suggests we bounce off the 1.3000 region with limited upside. Look for possible shorts off 1.3098. Alternative entry will be a break of the psychological support.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0348 moderate / 1.0395 moderate / 1.0424 minor
Support: 1.0293 moderate / 1.0266 minor / 1.0238 minor

Wednesday saw Aussy with a resumption of the bear market getting rejected from under the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we have 4H macd flattening out after crossing lower while stochastic is at risk of coming off oversold areas and candlesticks show a hammer. From the hourly picture we have Aussy breaking higher of its late New York congestion though we have trouble sustaining momentum. Indicators has macd bottoming at the brink of a bullish cross while stochastic is rising. From the calendar we are waiting for the Quarterly Business Confidence survey of NAB at 0130GMT, a good read should be enough for us to see a test of the 1.0348 area. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though adopting a buy on dips stance from the 1.0293 area with stops tightly under 1.0276 the false breakout lows. Shorts could be taken on a break of the Wednesday lows.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5256(64) moderate / 1.5316 minor / 1.5345 minor
Support: 1.5215 minor / 1.5175 minor / 1.5143 moderate

Cable is set to close the Wednesday candle beneath the daily EMA lines as we triggered a head and shoulder pattern in the 4H picture. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is also crossing lower. In intraday charts we have market stalling below the neckline though indicators still has a 4H stochastic oversold and macd heading down. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic while macd has also crossed up. Immediate risk appears to call for a pullback to the neckline and then getting a rejection from the said price area. Alternative entry will be news lows, an hourly close under 1.5215. Note we are looking at a key release from the UK with Retail Sales expected to contract by 0.7% a catalyst for further weakness. Note pattern target is at 1.5126.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.26(71)88 moderate / 1.2738 minor / 1.2799 moderate
Support: 1.2639 minor / 1.2596 minor / 1.2554 minor

We have a qualified ‘dark cloud cover’ in daily charts for EURAUD with prices failing to hold above the 50 Fib retracement level for our sell-off from February 7. Despite the move we have daily indicators showing a bukllish macd and stochastic in overbought levels. Prices are also just under the daily pivot. Note we risk mean reversion. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic just crossing up and macd bearish. Hourly charts are also mixed as macd’s heads lower and stochastic point up. For now we have Aussy data coming out at 0130GMT, with NAB releasing its quarterly Business Confidence figures. A poor read hear should allows EURAUD to push back to yesterdays highs while stronger numbers could see us getting well on our way to a bear market.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8507 minor / 0.8535 minor / 0.8560 moderate
Support: 0.8472 minor / 0.8447 moderate / 0.8412 moderate

Kiwi pulled back Tuesday to the 38.2 Fib retracement area of our sell-off from last Thursday’s highs. Daily indicators are showing a confluence of bears still, with stochastic looking to push oversold while macd has crossed lower and prices just above the EMA lines. From the lower time frames we have mixed views as stochastic is poised to come out of overbought areas in 4H charts with a possible bearish engulfing while macd has just crossed up. Hourly indicators however show a confluence of bears with macd in the process of crossing lower and stochastic heading down. Note we have CPI numbers due at 2245GMT, with consensus forecast at 0.4% Anything under the the consensus may trigger further weakness while reads above 0.6% could see us pushing past 38.2 Fib at 0.8491. Keep in mind a break lower will have to deal with a series of EMA lines 21D at 0.8449, 34D at 0.8414 and the 55D EMA at 0.8386.

EURUSD
Resistances: 1.3201 minor / 1.3245 minor / 1.3320 strong
Support: 1.3169 minor / 1.3139 minor / 1.3113 moderate

Euro managed to bounce off the daily EMA lines exceeding average daily ranges as rally in the equities translated to risk appetite for the currency markets. Among indicators we have a bullish macd with stochastic poised to cross higher and push back into overbought levels, while EMA lines are also at the brink of getting golden crosses. In the lower time frames we an overbought 4H stochastic and rising macd with price action generally bullish. Hourly charts has stochastic heading down and macd flat above the signal line. Given the bullish breakout we prefer a buy on dips approach preferable from just above 1.3113 though we will settle for a 1.3139 entry.

Gold
Resistance: 1403.63 minor / 1436.47 moderate / 1476.40 moderate
Support: 1361.84 minor / 1321.81 minor / 1302.34 minor

Tuesday turned out to be consolidation day for Gold as markets digest the results of its previous sell-off from Friday, and monday’s massive drop. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd continues to open even further down. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower and macd’s crossing up. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd and stochastic. Note that we are actually just above the 50 Fib retracement of our bounce from monday’s lows. As such we would like to get a buy on dips to the 1361.84 level for a retest of the intraday highs at 1403.63 possibly a push for the moderate 1436.47 area, a possible bearish entry point. Note however that the overall picture for us remains murky with the big picture descending triangle breakout suggesting pattern targets at 1117.36.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0398(03) moderate / 1.0429 minor / 1.0447 minor
Support: 1.0378 minor / 1.0339 minor / 1.0290(94) strong

Aussy saw a bounce off the 61.8 Fib retracement of our rally from March to see prices closing Tuesday just under the 55D EMA at 1.0398(04). Daily indicators has stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is also opening lower. Given we have prices just under the EMA’s and 38.2 Fib retracement of the sell-off from last Thursday we are looking for possible bear signals in intraday charts. From the 4H picture we are poised at getting a confluence of buys with stochastic just entering overbought areas while macd is bottoming out. Hourly indicators has a bullish macd while stochastic has come-off overbought areas. Intraday price action has a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, as such we are equally cognizant of a possible bullish breakout. A close above 1.0398(03) will be seen as a bullish entry while initially we are looking for a rejection from the said price.

EURJPY
Resistance: 129.04 minor / 1.2968(77) moderate / 1.3000 psychological
Support: 128.43 minor / 127.88 moderate / 127.12 minor

We have bounce off the daily EMA lines in EURJPY with the candlesticks turning out to be a qualified ‘piercing pattern’. Indicators show a bullish confluence with macd’s flat but above the signal line and daily stochastic seeing a new bullish crossover. From the 4H level we have a possible ‘rising three method’ in the making though we need the latest 4H candle to close well above 129.04. Stochastic in 4H charts is overbought while macd has a new bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s pushing up and stochastic heading for overbought levels. For now given that we have Tokyo markets just opening with the rest of Asia following suit, a push above 129.04 will be an immediate bullish entry for a run to 129.68 potentially all the way up to 130.83.

USDJPY
Resistance: 98.15 moderate / 98.72 moderate / 99.15 minor
Support: 97.79 minor / 97.40(45) moderate / 97.13 minor

USDJPY saw a bounce off the EMA lines from Monday and Yesterday the result candlesticks a ‘piercing pattern’. Among indicators however we are seeing mixed signals with a bullish daily stochastic and new bearish cross as well in macd. Note we have prices just above the daily pivot at 97.45. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with hourly stochastic pushing for overbought levels while macd also has a new bullish cross. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off the 80 mark and macd just crossing up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a push past 98.15 may be considered as a bullish entry for a surge to 98.72 though breakouts ideally should be at the open of the market.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5379 minor / 1.5411(22) moderate / 1.5442 minor
Support: 1.5352 minor / 1.5318 moderate / 1.5288 minor

Cable saw abounce off the 21D EMA Tuesday with its real body engulfing that of Monday’s. Among indicators we have a rising macd and stochastic poised at a bullish crossover. Note we have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows from the daily candlesticks though the weekly candle was a dragonfly doji last week. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s crossing up. Hourly charts for their part has a pennant already at its ideal breakout point while stochastic is crossing up and macd still bullish despite topping off. The aggressive course of action would be to take the breakout of the pennant in hourly charts, a more cautious entry will be a push past 1.5379. Pattern target calls for a push atleast to the mid 1.5400′s.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8446 moderate / 0.8491 moderate / 0.8526 minor
Support: 0.8412 minor / 0.8384 moderate / 0.8349 strong

Kiwi saw a sharp sell-off in line with the general commodity drop following poor China and US data. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also topping off. Note we are just in between the 34D and 21D EMA lines, the latter acting as our resistance. In the lower timeframes we have stochastic oscillating around oversold areas in 4H charts while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in overbought levels while macd is bottoming out. Immediate risk appear to call for a rally in Kiwi, a push past the 0.8446 region could be seen as a bullish entry though there is little momentum and catalyst for price action.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5306 moderate / 1.5340 minor / 1.5380 minor
Support: 1.5260 strong / 1.5237 moderate / 1.5200 minor

Cable Monday played second fiddle to the extreme sell-off we were seeing among the commodity pairs and the yen pairs. Still we had a bear market closing under the 55D EMA though staying above the key support at 1.5260 where we now have the 21D EMA. Daily indicators has macd’s with a new bear cross while stochastic is heading for oversold territory. In 4H charts we have stochastic playing around 20 while macd is bearish. Hourly indicators has macd bottoming out and stochastic heading up. Note we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows though given the strength of 1.5260 it remains to be seen if the pattern holds. We need to see an early close below 1.5260 otherwise too late and we will find ourselves with base building and a bounce off point.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 100.30 minor / 101.15 minor / 101.70 minor
Support: 99.59 minor / 98.73 moderate / 98.12 minor

AUDJPY saw a 500 pip sell-off monday as poor numbers out of China saw follow through dumping on weak US results to see the pair crashing past the 21 and 34D EMA’s though bouncing off the 55D EMA. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has been topping off near the brink of a bearish crossover. From the lower time frames we have stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping to confirm the presence of a bear trend. Note we may be forming a hammer in 4H candlesticks. Hourly charts are mixed with macd bottoming out and stochastic coming off oversold levels. For now we prefer remaining sidelined ahead of the RBA’s minute of the meeting at 0130GMT. This said a push past 100.30m ay be seen as argument to look for a rally to the at least 101.28 38.2 Fib of our bear market.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3067 minor / 1.3113 strong / 1.3138 minor
Support: 1.3021 minor / 1.2987 minor / 1.2949 minor

Friday’s ‘Hanging Man’ and rejection from the 38.2 Fib of sell-off from February saw a confirming black candle in Yesterdays trade though ranges for EURUSD were limited with the focus mostly on commodity currencies and the Yen pairs. For the moment we are between the daily EMA’s for a floor and the said 38.2 Fib at 1.3113. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pointing up. Intraday we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows though the move is very whipsawish with prices for the moment coming off a lower low. The 4H signals has a confluence of bears in stochastic and macd. Hourly charts has macd bottoming out and stochastic pointing up. Given the cycle in intraday charts immediate risk calls for a bounce perhaps a push for a lower high under 1.0307 from where we should be able to short again.

USDJPY
Resistance: 97.54 minor / 98.26 moderate / 98.72 moderate
Support: 96.78 minor / 96.41 minor / 95.96 moderate

With the poor numbers out of the US USDJPY saw a sell-off in New York trade, at one point easing down to the 34D EMA as we almost tripled the average daily range. From indicators we have daily stochastic waiting to push towards oversold territory while macd is also poised to cross lower. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic is coming off oversold levels while macd is pointing down and price charts has a hammer forming. Hourly charts for their part already have a hammer while stochastic is coming out of oversold areas and and macd begins to bottom out. Note policy wise the Japanese will continue with their efforts to reflate the economy and as such we prefer a buy on dips approach to the Yen pairs. Given the mixed intraday signals and our bounce off the daily EMA lines we are now looking buys preferable once we close the 4H hammer.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0348 moderate / 1.0402 minor / 1.0446 minor
Support: 1.0293 moderate / 1.0265 minor / 1.0239 minor

Aussy has seen more than three times its daily averages of decline monday following the poor Chinese GDP, Investments and Industrial Production data. The sell-off saw the 61.8 Fib retracement of our rally from March 5 with the charts set to close the day near its lows. Given the move we suddenly have daily macd’s crossing lower inline with the bearish stochastic. From the lower time frames we have a confluence bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd dropping. Hourly charts are mixed with a piercing pattern among the candlesticks while stochastic is coming off oversold levels. Going forward we have the minutes of the last policy meeting set for release at 0130GMT, given the context of bear market people may use the refusal to rule out rate cuts as an excuse of getting a follow through sell-off. For now we are looking for markets to digest yesterdays drop though we are keeping a bearish bias with possible shorts off 1.0348 a moderate resistance better of 38.2 Fib of the sell-off at 1.0402.