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Articles by Mark De La Paz

January 15th, 2014 @ 1:25 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8384 minor / 1.8413 moderate / 0.8448 moderate
Support: 0.8357 moderate / 0.8316 moderate / 0.8283 minor

Tuesday saw Kiwi with a long wick for a daily shooting star suggesting that the weeks symmetric triangle breakout is faltering. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading up suggesting overall trends remain bullish. Note however the big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines making charts vulnerable to mean reversion. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic with a bearish divergence and macd’s in the process of crossing lower. Candles sticks show a bearish engulfing though we are now just above a moderate support at 0.8357. Hourly charts has stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is poised to ease through the zero line. Already we have half the average daily range since the open of Wellington markets. With the daily shooting star our immediate risk is for mean reversion with a break of 0.8357 getting the move to the EMA lines started.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8984 moderate / 0.9018 minor / 0.9045 minor
Support: 0.8953 moderate / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8909 moderate

Aussy saw a steady sell-off in Tuesday trade pushing through the daily EMA lines, back under the 21D EMA with prices closing near their lows and just above a daily consolidation. From indicators we are seeing a mixed view with the failure to push past the 55D EMA seeing stochastic turn with a new bear cross though daily macd remains bullish. From the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling in oversold areas and macd easing off as well looking to push below zero. Hourly charts has stochastic coming off oversold areas for a technical correction while macd is down. For the moment we have a bounce from the immediate floor though we retain a bearish overall bias given the daily picture and fundies with the RBA seeing 0.8500 as a sweet spot. Consider shorts on a break of 0.8953 or should we get long wicks in the hourly picture through the 0.8984 level.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3679 moderate / 1.3700 moderate / 1.3719 moderate
Support: 1.3656 moderate / 1.3636 moderate / 1.3602 minor

Euro has a high wave spining top once more failing to hold on to gains and losses as it gets pressed at the top with the 38.2 Fib retracement level from December highs, 1.3679 while the daily EMA lines are providing a porous floor. From indicators we have a bullish view with stochastic overbought and daily macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. In the intraday picture we have a consolidation in 4h candlesticks with stochastic flat in between the thresholds and macd’s flat just above the signal line. Hourly charts has stochastic with a bullish crossover while macd for its part is heading down looking to push under the zero-line. Despite the mixed view our bias will be for the sell side of Euro, consider shorts coming off yesterdays highs at 1.3699 or on a a break of the 1.3656 area.

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January 14th, 2014 @ 1:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6396 moderate / 1.6433 minor / 1.6465 moderate
Support: 1.6348 moderate / 1.6315 moderate / 1.6258 strong

Monday saw Cable selling-off on commercial interest dragging prices down under the 21D EMA at the close with a daily head and shoulder forming. Note our weekly charts suggests markets are topping off with long wicks among the candlesticks.At the moment we have prices just above the 34D, previously we had apattern of bouncing from the said line though this time we do not have a preceding higher high. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in stochastic joining an already bearish macd. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold areas with 4H macd’s heading lower as well. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. At this point we are keeping a bearish bias though we need a push under the neckline at 1.6351 to get things going, our near term objective to ease down to 1.6258 the consolidation resistance from 2013.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1255.05 moderate / 1263.99 moderate / 1268.99 minor
Support: 1248.09 moderate  / 1237.00 moderate / 1231.33 moderate

At the close we saw gold holding above the 55D EMA opening the way for a possible surge to the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from 1433.69, August 2013 highs. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing back up into theoverbought area with daily macdalso in he process of crossing up through the zero line. Note with the poor US jobs numbers there is growing speculation that the taper policy may be short lived with the Yellen leadership in the FOMC. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic pushing into overbought areas and macd’s on the rise. From the hourly picture we have stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s with a new bear cross. We appear to be forming a double top in the candlesticks intraday. Given the big picture we prefer a buy on dips though a break of 1255.05 could also be used as an entry point.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9040 moderate / 0.9071 moderate / 0.9097 moderate
Support: 0.9017 minor / 0.8983 moderate / 0.8958 moderate

After Mondays rally we are seeing a poor start for Aussy with the push higher taking us just under the 55D EMA before the current sell-off. Daily indicators for now are bullish with an overbought stochastic and macd’s still heading up. Note we may have run the course of our bounce as we also saw 78.6 Fib of the drop from December. From the lower time frames we have a high wave spinning top defining the highs in 4H charts while stochastic is quickly heading down to zero and macd’s are topping off. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold areas and macd’s also heading lower. We have just triggered a double top in the hourly picture with the push through the daily pivot at 0.9040 confirming the bear market. This is a sell at market for 0.8984 with stops just above 0.9054.

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January 13th, 2014 @ 1:50 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6516 moderate / 1.6557 minor / 1.6582 minor
Support: 1.6460 moderate / 1.6435 moderate / 1.6414 moderate

Cable saw a reversal of its earlier sell-off to close with along tail Friday as weakness from flat manufacturing and industrial production figures in the UK were offset by disappointing US jobs data. With our bounce from the daily EMA lines we continue to see higher lows and are looking to test the highs at 1.6601 still. Among indicators we now have stochastic poised to push overbought though the daily macd remains flat below the signal line. From the lower time frames we are bullish with stochastic in the 4H picture looking to push overbought and already above the threshold in hourly charts. The macd indicators for both time frames is already pushing higher. We are keeping a bullish view of Cable though we have little sense of urgency. We prefer buys off the daily pivot at 1.6460 though a push past 1.6516 can also be used ad an entry.  Note given the day and the lack of impetus, targets should be more modest than the average ranges.

USDJPY
Resistances: 104.18 moderate / 104.43 minor / 104.72 moderate
Support: 103.91 moderate / 103.56 moderate / 103.37 moderate

USDJPY saw a big sell-off Friday with the US jobs report falling well short of expectations. We now have a confirmation to the weekly hanging back from two weeks prior while the monthly chart could be forming a dark cloud cover off 61.8 Fib retracement of the sell-off from 2007 highs. In the daily scale we have a double top with prices just above the trigger of 103.91 and under the 21DEMA. From indicators we have daily stochastic pointing towards twenty with anew bear cross while stochastic is also pointing down to the zeroline. Intraday we are seeing a similarly bearish tone with 4h stochastic oversold and the macd’s pushing back below the zeroline. Hourly charts also have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold. Note we have a holiday in Japan though that said focus is still on getting a bear market should we see a close below 103.91. Our objective to ease down to the 34D EMA currently at 103.37.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9018 moderate / 0.9042 minor / 0.9071 moderate
Support: 0.8984 minor / 0.8958 moderate / 0.8935 moderate

Following the broad dollar dumping on weak NFP from the US we have a bullish close in AUDUSD Friday just under the days highs and now looking poised for a breakout of our range play. Note we do have a pattern of highs lows from mid December though the buy has been capped before by the daily EMA’s. We now have prices in the middle of the 21D and 34D EMA. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up following Fridays crossover while the macd indicators is also pushing higher looking set to make a run of the zeroline. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought in the 4H picture while macd has just crossed through up through the zero line. Hourly charts has a confluence of buts as well though macd is flat above the signal line and stochastic just crossing up. For now we are looking for a push past the 34D EMA at 0.9018 to trigger the next up-leg.

Gold
Resistance: 1255.05 moderate / 1264.00 moderate / 1268.99 minor
Support: 1247.26 minor / 1241.32 moderate / 1233.72 moderate

With US jobs numbers disappointing Friday we have Gold prices rallying to close just under the highs to see weekly charts with a bullish confirmation and the daily’s now in the process of pushing up through the 55D EMA line. Among indicators we have stochastic looking poised to push into overbought levels while macd is also set to move up through the zeroline. In the lower timeframes we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading up for the 4h charts. Hourly charts look mixed with macd’s bullish while stochastic has a bearish divergence. Note at this point Gold is being driven by speculation that with Friday’s jobs numbers Janet Yellen the incoming Fed chief will be forced to reconsider the taper policy if February’s release should also see weak results in US NFP.

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January 10th, 2014 @ 1:35 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3623 moderate / 1.3656 moderate / 1.3677 minor
Support: 1.3596 moderate / 1.3560 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

We once again find Euro just under the daily EMA lines and daily double top breakout point as Thursday failed to see a follow to the prior day’s drop. Note we basically consolidated for much of the first full weekof trading in 2014 though we do have lower highs and lower lows inside this consolidation. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is heading lower, now under the zero line. We look forward to daily stochastic oscillating around 20. Intraday we actually have a double bottom in 4H charts while indicators show a confluence of buys with new bullish crossovers for both stochastic and macd. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up. We see little sense of urgency for taking action though preference is toshort on a close below the pivot,1.3596, or should we have long wicks in the hourly charts sticking through the resistances.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9094 moderate / 0.9125 moderate / 0.9150 minor
Support: 0.9061 minor / 0.9045 moderate / 0.9026 moderate

Thursday saw USDCHF with a bearish engulfing pattern suggesting we look to pull back to the daily EMA lines after we saw a follow through rally to the surge up above 55D EMA monday. Among indicators we have stochastic coming-off over bought levels though daily macd’s remain bullish after pushing through zero Tuesday. In the lower time frames we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish macd and stochastic staying just above the oversold threshold likely to oscillate around the said area as we look for the next shoe to fall. Note despite the bearish looking charts we risk seeing a bounce in USDCHF as we have US jobs numbers set for release with risks calling for a strong read, possibly going into the mid 200K’s.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6502 moderate / 1.6531 minor / 1.6577 minor
Support: 1.6471 moderate / 1.6448 moderate / 1.6406 moderate

Thursday saw Cable with a follow through bounce off the daily EMA lines as cable continue to buck the trend of a stronger dollar with UK economic numbers turning out strong as well. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up inline with our bounce off the EMA’s while macd is flat just below the signal line. Note despite the focus on NFP from the US we also have metrics out of the UK later, with Manufacturing and Industrial Production expected to turnout at 0.4% to underscore the UK’sown growth story. In the lower time frames we have mixed signal but a bullish bias as stochastic is in the process of crossing up in 4H charts while macd is bullish. Hourly charts has macd’s trying to clear off the signal line heading up while stochastic is dropping. For now we remain sidelined though we will consider buying at the open of European markets should we stay above the pivot.

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January 9th, 2014 @ 1:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8916 moderate / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8951 minor
Support: 0.8881 moderate / 0.8842 moderate / 0.8822 moderate

Wednesday saw the Aussy easing off to close just above its lows with prices now in the middle of its consolidation from December. Daily indicators has stochastic heading down through macd is above the signal line though flattening and below zero. Note we have prices just above S1 from the pivots, recall the RBA’s wish price of 0.8500. For the moment we will be looking at Retail Sales and building approval figures due 0030GMT for a possible catalyst with weak numbers reinforcing the sell side. Consensus forecastis at 0.5% and -0.9% respectively. In intraday charts we areseeing argument for remaining bearish as both hourly and 4H charts push into oversold levels while the macd is also heading lower for both time frames. For now we are looking for a break of the 0.8881 level as a bearish entry with poor data as catalyst. Alternative entry will be coming for 0.8916, better 0.8935.

USDJPY
Resistance: 105.00 moderate / 105.24 minor / 105.43 moderate
Support: 104.72 moderate / 104.44 moderate / 104.17 moderate

USDJPY saw a further bounce off the daily EMA lines Wednesday though we are getting closer once more to the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from 2007, 105.57. From indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up while macd is heading lower. At this point we are concerned about markets getting inured about talk of doubling the money base, we need new catalyst. In the lower time frames we have stochastic heading lower in 4H charts while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s dropping and stochastic pointing higher. Given the proximity of 105.57,and the lack of fresh incentive we are looking for a possible rejection as we approach the said price point. Consider adopting a sell on rallies forming a double top in the daily charts.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6473 moderate / 1.6500 minor / 1.6531 minor
Support: 1.6431 moderate / 1.6396 moderate / 1.6374 minor

Cable managed to finally hold on to gains off a bounce from the 21D EMA following two days of high wave candles at the said region. This is consistent with our broader bullish trend of daily higher highs and higher lows as the economy continue to show signs of maintaining its gains. Among indicators we are seeing a mixed signal for the moment with stochastic crossing higher while macd is heading down. In the lower time frames we are seeing continued indecision with 4H stochastic crossing lower failing to push overbought while macd is looking to push further up through the zero line. Hourly charts are similarly mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s heading lower. Our preference will be a buy on dips to the 21DEMA, 1.6396, alternative entry will be a push through the the 1.6473 region. Buys off the daily pivot at 1.6431 may also be considered during the European open.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 172.84 moderate / 173.04 minor / 173.69 moderate
Support: 172.27 moderate / 171.72 moderate / 131.730 moderate

Following a piercing pattern Tuesday we have GBPJPY with a further rally yesterday looking set for a push to the swing highs at 174.82 in the coming days. Note from a fundamental perspective we have argument for a stronger Cable out of good UK economic conditions and Japanese policy weakening the yen. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up while macd is bearish. We are following through the bounce from the bullish daily EMA’s. In the lower time frames we have a mixed view with 4H stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd has just pushed up through the zero line. Candlesticks themselves have higher highs and higher lows after every pause. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading up and dropping towards the zero line. At the moment we are just above the daily pivot at 172.27, consider buys off the said price during the European open.

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January 8th, 2014 @ 1:29 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3622 moderate / 1.3656 moderate / 1.3677 minor
Support: 1.3596 minor / 1.3571 minor / 1.3527 moderate

Euro managed to close below the daily EMA lines and remain under the double to break out point from our charts after a whip sawish trading day that saw prices push for 34D EMA highs first. Daily indicators has stochastic around the over sold threshold at risk of oscillating around the number while macd is down looking to head under the zero line. We continue to look for a follow through to last weeks bearish engulfing rejection off the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our 2011 sell-off. Intraday we have a mixed view as 4H stochastic drops and macd’s head up for the zeroline. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading up while macd remains bearish. Given the big picture we prefer looking for shorts the immediate objective take out the weeks lows at 1.3571 for a drop for the 1.3527 region.

AUSDUSD
Resistance: 0.8935 moderate / 0.8972 moderate / 0.9004 moderate
Support: 0.8910 moderate / 0.8889 moderate / 0.8868 minor

Tuesday saw Aussy finally getting a rejection from the daily EMA lines to close back inside the consolidation for much of December. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower for the daily picture while macd is heading up with an earlier release, the Construction Index faltering to 50.8 from 55.2 to underscore the slowdown in growth and the RBA’s concerns. Recall we still have the RBA with an unofficial target for the Aussie at 0.8500, a level they will be happy with though not taking measures for. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with 4h stochastic heading up and macd’s down while hourly indicators could see us develop a confluence of bears with stochastic dropping andmacd at risk of a its own bear cross. With the daily close we prefer looking for shorts though false breakouts in intraday charts suggest we need an hourly close under 0.8910 to be confident of sustained weakness.

USDJPY
Resistance: 104.82 moderate / 105.14 minor / 105.43 moderate
Support: 104.49 minor / 104.17 moderate / 103.91 minor

USDJPY saw a piercing pattern with yesterdays close seeing us bouncee off the 21D EMA. From indicators we are seeing a mixed view with daily stochastic trying to cross up while macd is bearish. Note we face a dilemma from USDJPY big picture as the monthly charts show us testing a key resistance, 61.8 Fib of the sell-off from 2007. Policy wise we continue to have the BOJ with its goal of doubling the money base a catalyst for eventually pushing past 105.57. In the 4H picture we have macd’s with a bullish crossover and stochastic bullish though at risk of crossing lower should price action falter. Hourly charts are generally bullish with stochastic likely to oscillate around 80 while macd is heading up. For now we appear to have lost momentum from the price action but a close above R1 n pivots at 104.82 could be sen as a bullish entry though we caution against looking for a surge past the key 105.57 area, 61.8 Fib retracement level of the 2007 sell-off.

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January 7th, 2014 @ 2:19 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3652 moderate / 1.3677 minor / 1.3717 moderate
Support: 1.3617 moderate / 1.3582 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

Monday saw a technical correction with prices pulling back to the previous double top breakout point from our daily charts. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also heading lower suggesting we look for a follow through still to Fridays pattern breakout. Note we have the daily EMA’s right on top of the market. In the lower time frames we are seeing a mixed view from 4H charts with stochastic just crossing up while macd is poised at a bear cross. Hourkly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd seeing a new bearish crossover. Given the big picture pattern and EMA lines our preference is to look for a bearish breakout. Consider selling a push below the daily pivot at 1.3617, our objective to ease down to the psychological 1.3500 area.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6433 minor / 1.6473 moderate / 1.6500 psychological
Support: 1.6349 moderate / 1.6320 moderate / 1.6258 moderate

Monday saw Cable with a high wave candle with tails pushing all the way down to the 34D EMA. Daily indicators show a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to push oversold and macd seeing a new bear cross, though again prices are just above the EMA lines now. We are currently triggering a double top in hourly charts. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s bottoming out below zero in the 4h picture. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence and a new cross lower while macd is above the signal line. given the on going double top breakout immediate risk is for a bear market. Though we prefer looking for buys coming off the 1.6349 region, S1 in pivots.

Gold
Resistance: 1246.33 minor / 1253.63 moderate / 1264.90 moderate
Support: 1235.30 moderate / 1226.80 minor / 1219.23 moderate

At the close we have gold with a high wave candle suggesting a loss of momentum from its daily double bottom breakout. Currently we have prices inside the daily EMA lines and above the daily pivot with stochastic in overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Intraday we have mixed signals with stochastic bullish in 4H charts and macds seeing a new bear cross. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s dropping. There appears to be no sense of urgency in getting anywhere though we have an attractive resistance at 1253.63, where we have previous congestion highs and the 55D EMA. Consider buys coming off the daily pivot, 1235.30, for a test of the 55D EMA.

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January 6th, 2014 @ 1:54 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3619(23) moderate / 1.3659 moderate / 1.3717 moderate
Support: 1.2582 minor / 1.3555 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

Euro saw a double top triggered in the daily charts Friday, pushing through EMA lines and closing under the 55D EMA to form the second top of a weekly scale double top pattern. This may be seen as a follow through to the rejection off 1.3832, 61.8 Fib retracement level of the Sell-off from 2011 highs. Indicators has daily stochastic pushing into oversold areas while macd is also dropping. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals for now following the weekend break with prices just under the daily central pivot. We have 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for theirpart has stochastic coming off oversold levels heading up and macd with a bullish crossover. We prefer looking for better pricing with shorts off 1.3623, pattern trigger and roughly 55D EMA. Alternative entry will be a break of the 1.3582 area, Fridays lows.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9059 minor / 0.9094 moderate / 0.9125 moderate
Support: 0.9027(33) moderate / 0.8988 moderate / 0.8967 minor

The swiss franc saw a strong close last week with a weekly scale bullish engulfing off its bounce from the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 2011. The move has seen us triggering a daily double bottom with prices now above the daily EMA’s with the close near its highs, well above the 55D EMA. With the break we now have stochastic pushing into overbought areas and macd poised to push up through the zero line as well. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the overbought threshold while macd is rising to underscore a bullish trend. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a bearish divergence and macd a bear cross as well. We do not see a sense of urgency, this being the case we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the 0.9027(33) area possibly 55D EMA at 0.9017 though a push past 0.9059 will also be seen as a bullish entry.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1241.54 minor / 1247.96 minor / 1253.63 moderate
Support: 1232.80 moderate / 1226.80 minor / 1219.23 moderate

Gold saw a strong from last week as we bounce following its worst year since 1981. At the open of the new year we triggered a double bottom coming off the 1180 lows and possibly forming a second bottom in the weekly charts given the long tails. From indicators we have stochastic pushing further into overbought areas as macd’s also head up for the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4h stochastic reentering overbought areas to signal a bullish trend as macd’s for their part are already above zero and heading up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic crossing up and macd’s heading lower. Look for a push through Friday highs as a bullish entry or a bounce off the daily pivot. Our objective will be a run toward the 55DEMA.

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