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Articles by Mark De La Paz

February 12th, 2015 @ 10:01 am by Mark De La Paz

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Reports that the BoJ is saying no extra stimulus will be forthcoming saw the Yen pairs collapsing with USDJPY seeing a quick 150 pip drop. With no confirmation from the major wires however we will be looking at this news as a bum steer particularly as we have also seen a quick substantial recovery in prices and lay blame to algo systems for extending things too far. For now we are actually looking forward to see USDJPY pushing back up to where things started.

USDJPYnM15

Up ahead is our potential catalyst for dollar gains with the US Retail Sales figures at 1330GMT. While consensus forecasts points to a poor -0.4% read in both the headline and core data the recent surprise in theJobs market, particularly priro upside revisions leads us to thinks of a possible surprise here as well. A zero read would be seen as good though a positive read should see the dollar rally.

calendar 021215

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February 11th, 2015 @ 9:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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Just when we thought things could not get any murkier in the Greek govenments financing saga, has turned into a historical drama with the Syriza party asking for war reparations to the tune of 7 billion Euro. A cursory read of history does lend credence to the Greek demands but so does a whole lot more of countries that surround the current Germany and are now its partners in the EU area. The key concern here is where one to give in to war reparation claims by Greece where will it end, what if countries that were even more greatly affected by world war 2 asked for this cash. It was after all the punitive war repatriation conditions which helped the Nazi party of the past take power. And so the immediate answer from Germany is “Nien”. For the currency markets ther has been little in the way of a sustained response to these developments though the Greek stunt will likely harden Germany’s position on debt negotiations and pave the way for further weakness.

EURUSDH1

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February 10th, 2015 @ 11:15 am by Mark De La Paz

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Its been a long time coming but finally the BoJ’s Kuroda has reason to be happy as monday’s failure to push USDJPY back inside its bearish trendline now confirms tha validity of Friday’s pennant breakout. With the BoJ’s policy on doubling the money base for the country relegated to the sidelines among global investors USDJPY has been seeing lower highs the past two months though the latest US Jobs numbers once again underscores the differing policy directions between Japan and the US. Where the other still prints money and them some what has a lot of expectations riding on it to try to tighten or atleast underscore the intent.

USDJPYDaily

Key for now will be the ability to push past Friday’s highs of 119.22 which should pave the way for us to argue the psychological 120.00 as our target though projected high for the day is at 119.65.

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February 9th, 2015 @ 11:05 am by Mark De La Paz

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After some minimal dollar bullish gaps at the open, the greenback thus far has been hardpressed to follow through on Friday’s payroll driven rally even as the daily candlesticks provide some very interesting scenarios for further dollar gains. To recall, Friday saw the market reinstating notions of a rate hike by the middle of the year from the Fed as the job market shows signs of resilience in the US buckingthe trend of poor economic releases. For the month of January we saw NFP coming in at 257,000 against a 236,000 consensus even as previous results were revised to 329,000 from 252,000 before with average earnings also picking up 0.5%. This essentially allays concerns that the Fed might be shifting its stance following the recent spate of surprise easing.

MetaTrader - FX Clearing

From a technical perspective we are actually looking at a dark cloud cover in Cable, pinochio candles inAussy, and dollar bullish breakout in Gold and Yen though as mentioned price action thus far has actually seen a pullback not a follow through.

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February 6th, 2015 @ 8:55 am by Mark De La Paz

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The past week has seen some very intersting if frustrating price action ahead of todays NFP. An aussy sell-off courtesy of the RBA surprising the markets with a rate cut did not last and turned into a daily hammer. While the dollar weakened as people speculated that the Fed could further move back any rate hike after reviewing recent releases which has been week. And thursday saw the Cable rally breaking the years consolidation as the BoE turned out to be the only central bank that has buck the trend of surprise easing.

MetaTrader - FX Clearing

 

All this said we now turn to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls with consensus forecast at 236,000. With so many of recent US data falling short of forecast people are anticipating a weak read though how much of dollar weakness could be expected is a different thing all together as we have exhibited some “buy the runor,”  already and “sell the fact” could follow. Anything around the 250,000 mark however should prove interesting given the heights we have seen in the correction for many of the dollar pairs.

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February 4th, 2015 @ 10:36 am by Mark De La Paz

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The PBOC has just cut interest rates by 50 bps. Knee Jerk impact is a 60 pip pop.

AUDUSDM1

Given the Broader technicalpicture this could see us to the 0.7950′s region going to Fridays US NFP from where we could turn into interested sellers specially if the us jobs market surprises on the upside.

AUDUSDDaily

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February 4th, 2015 @ 9:20 am by Mark De La Paz

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Tuesday has turned out to be a big surprise for the market in many ways as price action from an earlier decision by the RBA to cut was eventually reversed by the close for a long tail in the daily Aussy charts and similarly weak dollar plays across the other majors. For Euro we had a consolidation breakout that saw us up to the daily EMA while GBPUSD has now formed a double bottom though we are unconvinced ofits ability to trigger.

MetaTrader - FX Clearing

So what exactly happened? It appears that with the surprise move by the RBA earlier the day traders elsewhere have begun to speculate who is next, and their response was the US backing off its hawkish direction in monetary policy. Given the dollars gains the past few months and recent weakness in economic data it is easy to see now why such a thinking would crop up. Going forward however, such concerns on policy direction would merely further emphasize the importance of this Friday’s NFP results.

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February 3rd, 2015 @ 6:13 am by Mark De La Paz

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After the surprise rate cut by the Bank of Canada last January 20th and all the talk of currency wars in Davos, not to mention the Russian 180 degree turn on policy, today saw another front opened with a salvo by the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting key interest rates tp 0.75% against expectations of a steady 1.0%. As with the SNB’s move which heated the cold war on currencies the RBA’s action is not extacly unwarranted with the commodity super cycle at an end and other domestic industries hallowed out during the Miracle economy period.

AUDUSDMonthly

Essentially the announcement paves the way for RBA Governor Glenn Stevens dream level of 0.7500. For today we have already seen twice the aveage daily range which would suggest better remaining on the sidelines until a nice sellon rally potential develops.

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