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Articles by Mark De La Paz

January 24th, 2014 @ 1:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6666 moderate / 1.6697 minor / 1.6752 strong
Support: 1.6611 moderate / 1.6582 moderate / 1.6556 minor

Cable managed to surge past previous swing highs to close above the 1.6601 price point and just under the daily highs. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while the macds have also crossed highs. Given the daily close the past three days, price charts themselves suggests a build-up of momentum. Note we are at levels last sincein 2011. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic crawling above 80 while macd’s are also bullish. Hourly charts however has new sell signals in both macd and stochastic coming out of overbought areas. Immediate view appear to call for a technical correction perhaps to yesterdays breakout point at 1.6601. Look for base building around the said areas and daily pivot of 1.6611. Long tails and dragon fly doji’s would be our cue to rejoin the buy side.

USDCAD
Resistance: 1.1118 moderate / 1.1154 moderate / 1.1172 minor
Support: 1.1091 minor / 1.1064 moderate / 1.1018 minor

In the end USDCAD turned out to be a shooting star Thursday unable to hold to its gains despite several whipsaws in intraday charts. Daily indicators has stochastic trying to push back up into overbought levels while macd is also bullish. Note given the rally the past three weeks, the daily candlestick and this being Friday we may be looking at a possible start for mean reversions plays. Intraday we have a consolidation from 4H charts with stochastic heading lower and macds flat above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part are looking mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd continues to point lower. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the lack of impetus though bias will be for shorts and mean reversion, a break of Thursdays lows an aggressive entry . Should we remain just under the pivots at European open cosnider shorts with tight stops above the figure. 1.1118.

CADJPY
Resistance: 93.25 moderate / 93.62 minor / 94.16 minor
Support: 92.95 minor / 92.41 moderate / 92.23 strong

Thursday saw CADJPY selling off in line with the broadly firmer Japanese Yen to see us just days range from the key support level of 92.23 2013′s consolidation floor. Among indicators we have new dead crosses in daily EMA’s while stochastic is oversold and macd also bearish in both daily and the weekly charts. We appear to be set to make a run for the key support level. In 4H charts we have a piercing pattern with stochastic also coming off oversold areas and macd’s heading down. hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic in the process of coming off overbought areas, candlesticks indecisive though macd has a bullish crossover. Note we have Canadian CPI figures set for release at 1330GMT, consensus forecast underscoring deflationary pressure the core read expected at -0.4 and headline CPI seen coming at -0.2%. weak results will be an excuse to make a run for 92.23.

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January 20th, 2014 @ 1:41 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3493 minor / 1.3582 minor / 1.3622 moderate
Support: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3460 minor / 1.3414 moderate

Euro saw further weakness Friday closing below previous swing lows after a rejection off the daily EMA lines and the 38.2 Fib retracement level for the years drop thus far. At the moment we have EURUSD taking out Fridays lows with daily indicators suggesting a bear market as EMA lines begin to show new dead crosses while macd is pushing further below the zero line and stochastic has gone oversold. Note this could all be viewed as part of the sell-off following the month long double top pattern breakout. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s dropping while Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bear cross along with a bearish macd. At this point swing traders can used the push through Fridays lows as a bearish entry though a break of 1.3500 would, would be preferable as an entry for intraday trades.

EURJPY
Resistance: 141.04 minor / 141.50 moderate / 141.82 minor
Support: 140.47 minor / 139.86 moderate / 139.20 moderate

We are seeing a poor start for the week in EURJPY this a combination of follow through to weakness from Friday, a broader strengthening for the Yen and Euro also dropping. At the moment we have prices in between the 34D and 55D EMA’s while the shorter sampling periods begin to flatten while stochastic begins to cross lower, looking to push oversold and macd’s are dropping. From the lower time-frames we see a confluence of bears as stochastic crawls oversold from the 4H picture while macd pushes further lower below zero. Hourly charts for their part has a new bear cross in stochastic and macd’s easing off. Note we have equity markets tumbling at the open of Asian markets. For now we prefer looking for a break of 140.47 as our bearish entry with the 55D EMA at 139.86 as our objective.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8781 moderate / 0.8800 minor / 0.8827 minor
Support: 0.8753 moderate / 0.8726 minor / 0.8690 minor

Aussy saw a modest drop Friday inline with weakness off other commodity currencies. We are now at levels last seen in 2010 heading for the RBA’s 0.8500 comfort zone. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into oversold territory while macd’s also has a new bear cross. In the lower time frames we are seeing a bearish bias though macd’s in both 4H and hourly charts have begun to flatten out while under the zero line. The stochastic indicators for its part is at oversold levels in the 4H picture while seeing a new hourly bear cross. Note we have Chinese data atthe endof the hour, 0100GMT, a good read in Fixed Asset investments and Industrial Production could be seen as a boost for Aussy though weakness in turn would be a good excuse to short, consensus forecast is 19.8% and 9.8% respectively. Other figures will see China GDP with a7.6% consensus and Retail Sales seen at 13.6%

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6422 minor / 1.6457 moderate / 1.6500 psychological
Support: 1.6396 moderate / 1.6357 minor / 1.6315 moderate

Cable saw surge up Friday following a strong Retail Sales at 2.6% against an 0.5% consensus forecast. Still from the big picture we have a lower highs and lower lows setup with prices currently just above the 21D EMA and the days pivot of 1.6396. Among indicators we have stochastic with a new bullish crossover and daily macd’s heading lower. From the 4H picture we are seeing a similarly mixed set of signals with stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears, macd has been easing off down to the zero line while stochastic sees a new bear cross. For the moment we prefer remaining sideline though a push below the daily pivot at 1.6396 could be used as a bearish entry continuing the pattern of daily lower highs and lower lows.

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January 16th, 2014 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8917 minor / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8953 moderate
Support: 0.8887 moderate / 0.8866 minor / 0.8844 minor

Aussy saw a follow through to the turn-around from the EMA lines pushing into the middle of the December range play to close with a decent sized bearish body. Daily stochastic is looking poised to push oversold while the macd indicator look at risk of crossing down through its signal line. Note we have prices under the daily EMA’s. From the lower time frames we are looking for a confluence of bears in 4h charts with stochastic looking poised to cross lower and push oversold once more while macd has just gone down through the zero line. After 12H of consolidation we are currently in the process of breaking lower among the candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also poised to cross lower. For now we are just waiting to confirm the bearish view with Australian jobs numbers set for release at 0030GMT. Weakness in the employment change figures or a blowout in the unemployment rate could be an excuse to make run for the swing lows at 0.8822.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8357 moderate / 0.8384 minor / 0.8413 moderate
Support: 0.8316 moderate / 0.8283 minor / 0.8245 moderate

Wednesday saw kiwi with a sell-off easing down following through the spinning top the prior day. We now have prices back at the breakout point of a 2-month long symmetric triangle. Among indicators we have stochastic coming out of overbought areas while macd’s are topping off. Note we have prices below the daily pivot and getting dragged lower by the broad retreat among commodity currencies following the poor Aussy data. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold once more in 4H charts while macd is dropping and prices break lower. Hourly charts has stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is also down. For now we are looking for an hourly close below 0.8316 to signal a further push into the prior pattern with projected lows at 0.8262.

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January 15th, 2014 @ 1:25 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8384 minor / 1.8413 moderate / 0.8448 moderate
Support: 0.8357 moderate / 0.8316 moderate / 0.8283 minor

Tuesday saw Kiwi with a long wick for a daily shooting star suggesting that the weeks symmetric triangle breakout is faltering. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading up suggesting overall trends remain bullish. Note however the big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines making charts vulnerable to mean reversion. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic with a bearish divergence and macd’s in the process of crossing lower. Candles sticks show a bearish engulfing though we are now just above a moderate support at 0.8357. Hourly charts has stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is poised to ease through the zero line. Already we have half the average daily range since the open of Wellington markets. With the daily shooting star our immediate risk is for mean reversion with a break of 0.8357 getting the move to the EMA lines started.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8984 moderate / 0.9018 minor / 0.9045 minor
Support: 0.8953 moderate / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8909 moderate

Aussy saw a steady sell-off in Tuesday trade pushing through the daily EMA lines, back under the 21D EMA with prices closing near their lows and just above a daily consolidation. From indicators we are seeing a mixed view with the failure to push past the 55D EMA seeing stochastic turn with a new bear cross though daily macd remains bullish. From the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling in oversold areas and macd easing off as well looking to push below zero. Hourly charts has stochastic coming off oversold areas for a technical correction while macd is down. For the moment we have a bounce from the immediate floor though we retain a bearish overall bias given the daily picture and fundies with the RBA seeing 0.8500 as a sweet spot. Consider shorts on a break of 0.8953 or should we get long wicks in the hourly picture through the 0.8984 level.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3679 moderate / 1.3700 moderate / 1.3719 moderate
Support: 1.3656 moderate / 1.3636 moderate / 1.3602 minor

Euro has a high wave spining top once more failing to hold on to gains and losses as it gets pressed at the top with the 38.2 Fib retracement level from December highs, 1.3679 while the daily EMA lines are providing a porous floor. From indicators we have a bullish view with stochastic overbought and daily macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. In the intraday picture we have a consolidation in 4h candlesticks with stochastic flat in between the thresholds and macd’s flat just above the signal line. Hourly charts has stochastic with a bullish crossover while macd for its part is heading down looking to push under the zero-line. Despite the mixed view our bias will be for the sell side of Euro, consider shorts coming off yesterdays highs at 1.3699 or on a a break of the 1.3656 area.

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January 14th, 2014 @ 1:32 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6396 moderate / 1.6433 minor / 1.6465 moderate
Support: 1.6348 moderate / 1.6315 moderate / 1.6258 strong

Monday saw Cable selling-off on commercial interest dragging prices down under the 21D EMA at the close with a daily head and shoulder forming. Note our weekly charts suggests markets are topping off with long wicks among the candlesticks.At the moment we have prices just above the 34D, previously we had apattern of bouncing from the said line though this time we do not have a preceding higher high. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in stochastic joining an already bearish macd. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold areas with 4H macd’s heading lower as well. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. At this point we are keeping a bearish bias though we need a push under the neckline at 1.6351 to get things going, our near term objective to ease down to 1.6258 the consolidation resistance from 2013.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1255.05 moderate / 1263.99 moderate / 1268.99 minor
Support: 1248.09 moderate  / 1237.00 moderate / 1231.33 moderate

At the close we saw gold holding above the 55D EMA opening the way for a possible surge to the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from 1433.69, August 2013 highs. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing back up into theoverbought area with daily macdalso in he process of crossing up through the zero line. Note with the poor US jobs numbers there is growing speculation that the taper policy may be short lived with the Yellen leadership in the FOMC. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic pushing into overbought areas and macd’s on the rise. From the hourly picture we have stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s with a new bear cross. We appear to be forming a double top in the candlesticks intraday. Given the big picture we prefer a buy on dips though a break of 1255.05 could also be used as an entry point.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9040 moderate / 0.9071 moderate / 0.9097 moderate
Support: 0.9017 minor / 0.8983 moderate / 0.8958 moderate

After Mondays rally we are seeing a poor start for Aussy with the push higher taking us just under the 55D EMA before the current sell-off. Daily indicators for now are bullish with an overbought stochastic and macd’s still heading up. Note we may have run the course of our bounce as we also saw 78.6 Fib of the drop from December. From the lower time frames we have a high wave spinning top defining the highs in 4H charts while stochastic is quickly heading down to zero and macd’s are topping off. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold areas and macd’s also heading lower. We have just triggered a double top in the hourly picture with the push through the daily pivot at 0.9040 confirming the bear market. This is a sell at market for 0.8984 with stops just above 0.9054.

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January 13th, 2014 @ 1:50 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6516 moderate / 1.6557 minor / 1.6582 minor
Support: 1.6460 moderate / 1.6435 moderate / 1.6414 moderate

Cable saw a reversal of its earlier sell-off to close with along tail Friday as weakness from flat manufacturing and industrial production figures in the UK were offset by disappointing US jobs data. With our bounce from the daily EMA lines we continue to see higher lows and are looking to test the highs at 1.6601 still. Among indicators we now have stochastic poised to push overbought though the daily macd remains flat below the signal line. From the lower time frames we are bullish with stochastic in the 4H picture looking to push overbought and already above the threshold in hourly charts. The macd indicators for both time frames is already pushing higher. We are keeping a bullish view of Cable though we have little sense of urgency. We prefer buys off the daily pivot at 1.6460 though a push past 1.6516 can also be used ad an entry.  Note given the day and the lack of impetus, targets should be more modest than the average ranges.

USDJPY
Resistances: 104.18 moderate / 104.43 minor / 104.72 moderate
Support: 103.91 moderate / 103.56 moderate / 103.37 moderate

USDJPY saw a big sell-off Friday with the US jobs report falling well short of expectations. We now have a confirmation to the weekly hanging back from two weeks prior while the monthly chart could be forming a dark cloud cover off 61.8 Fib retracement of the sell-off from 2007 highs. In the daily scale we have a double top with prices just above the trigger of 103.91 and under the 21DEMA. From indicators we have daily stochastic pointing towards twenty with anew bear cross while stochastic is also pointing down to the zeroline. Intraday we are seeing a similarly bearish tone with 4h stochastic oversold and the macd’s pushing back below the zeroline. Hourly charts also have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold. Note we have a holiday in Japan though that said focus is still on getting a bear market should we see a close below 103.91. Our objective to ease down to the 34D EMA currently at 103.37.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9018 moderate / 0.9042 minor / 0.9071 moderate
Support: 0.8984 minor / 0.8958 moderate / 0.8935 moderate

Following the broad dollar dumping on weak NFP from the US we have a bullish close in AUDUSD Friday just under the days highs and now looking poised for a breakout of our range play. Note we do have a pattern of highs lows from mid December though the buy has been capped before by the daily EMA’s. We now have prices in the middle of the 21D and 34D EMA. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up following Fridays crossover while the macd indicators is also pushing higher looking set to make a run of the zeroline. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought in the 4H picture while macd has just crossed through up through the zero line. Hourly charts has a confluence of buts as well though macd is flat above the signal line and stochastic just crossing up. For now we are looking for a push past the 34D EMA at 0.9018 to trigger the next up-leg.

Gold
Resistance: 1255.05 moderate / 1264.00 moderate / 1268.99 minor
Support: 1247.26 minor / 1241.32 moderate / 1233.72 moderate

With US jobs numbers disappointing Friday we have Gold prices rallying to close just under the highs to see weekly charts with a bullish confirmation and the daily’s now in the process of pushing up through the 55D EMA line. Among indicators we have stochastic looking poised to push into overbought levels while macd is also set to move up through the zeroline. In the lower timeframes we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading up for the 4h charts. Hourly charts look mixed with macd’s bullish while stochastic has a bearish divergence. Note at this point Gold is being driven by speculation that with Friday’s jobs numbers Janet Yellen the incoming Fed chief will be forced to reconsider the taper policy if February’s release should also see weak results in US NFP.

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January 10th, 2014 @ 1:35 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3623 moderate / 1.3656 moderate / 1.3677 minor
Support: 1.3596 moderate / 1.3560 moderate / 1.3527 moderate

We once again find Euro just under the daily EMA lines and daily double top breakout point as Thursday failed to see a follow to the prior day’s drop. Note we basically consolidated for much of the first full weekof trading in 2014 though we do have lower highs and lower lows inside this consolidation. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is heading lower, now under the zero line. We look forward to daily stochastic oscillating around 20. Intraday we actually have a double bottom in 4H charts while indicators show a confluence of buys with new bullish crossovers for both stochastic and macd. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up. We see little sense of urgency for taking action though preference is toshort on a close below the pivot,1.3596, or should we have long wicks in the hourly charts sticking through the resistances.

USDCHF
Resistance: 0.9094 moderate / 0.9125 moderate / 0.9150 minor
Support: 0.9061 minor / 0.9045 moderate / 0.9026 moderate

Thursday saw USDCHF with a bearish engulfing pattern suggesting we look to pull back to the daily EMA lines after we saw a follow through rally to the surge up above 55D EMA monday. Among indicators we have stochastic coming-off over bought levels though daily macd’s remain bullish after pushing through zero Tuesday. In the lower time frames we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish macd and stochastic staying just above the oversold threshold likely to oscillate around the said area as we look for the next shoe to fall. Note despite the bearish looking charts we risk seeing a bounce in USDCHF as we have US jobs numbers set for release with risks calling for a strong read, possibly going into the mid 200K’s.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6502 moderate / 1.6531 minor / 1.6577 minor
Support: 1.6471 moderate / 1.6448 moderate / 1.6406 moderate

Thursday saw Cable with a follow through bounce off the daily EMA lines as cable continue to buck the trend of a stronger dollar with UK economic numbers turning out strong as well. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up inline with our bounce off the EMA’s while macd is flat just below the signal line. Note despite the focus on NFP from the US we also have metrics out of the UK later, with Manufacturing and Industrial Production expected to turnout at 0.4% to underscore the UK’sown growth story. In the lower time frames we have mixed signal but a bullish bias as stochastic is in the process of crossing up in 4H charts while macd is bullish. Hourly charts has macd’s trying to clear off the signal line heading up while stochastic is dropping. For now we remain sidelined though we will consider buying at the open of European markets should we stay above the pivot.

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January 9th, 2014 @ 1:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8916 moderate / 0.8935 moderate / 0.8951 minor
Support: 0.8881 moderate / 0.8842 moderate / 0.8822 moderate

Wednesday saw the Aussy easing off to close just above its lows with prices now in the middle of its consolidation from December. Daily indicators has stochastic heading down through macd is above the signal line though flattening and below zero. Note we have prices just above S1 from the pivots, recall the RBA’s wish price of 0.8500. For the moment we will be looking at Retail Sales and building approval figures due 0030GMT for a possible catalyst with weak numbers reinforcing the sell side. Consensus forecastis at 0.5% and -0.9% respectively. In intraday charts we areseeing argument for remaining bearish as both hourly and 4H charts push into oversold levels while the macd is also heading lower for both time frames. For now we are looking for a break of the 0.8881 level as a bearish entry with poor data as catalyst. Alternative entry will be coming for 0.8916, better 0.8935.

USDJPY
Resistance: 105.00 moderate / 105.24 minor / 105.43 moderate
Support: 104.72 moderate / 104.44 moderate / 104.17 moderate

USDJPY saw a further bounce off the daily EMA lines Wednesday though we are getting closer once more to the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from 2007, 105.57. From indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up while macd is heading lower. At this point we are concerned about markets getting inured about talk of doubling the money base, we need new catalyst. In the lower time frames we have stochastic heading lower in 4H charts while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s dropping and stochastic pointing higher. Given the proximity of 105.57,and the lack of fresh incentive we are looking for a possible rejection as we approach the said price point. Consider adopting a sell on rallies forming a double top in the daily charts.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6473 moderate / 1.6500 minor / 1.6531 minor
Support: 1.6431 moderate / 1.6396 moderate / 1.6374 minor

Cable managed to finally hold on to gains off a bounce from the 21D EMA following two days of high wave candles at the said region. This is consistent with our broader bullish trend of daily higher highs and higher lows as the economy continue to show signs of maintaining its gains. Among indicators we are seeing a mixed signal for the moment with stochastic crossing higher while macd is heading down. In the lower time frames we are seeing continued indecision with 4H stochastic crossing lower failing to push overbought while macd is looking to push further up through the zero line. Hourly charts are similarly mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s heading lower. Our preference will be a buy on dips to the 21DEMA, 1.6396, alternative entry will be a push through the the 1.6473 region. Buys off the daily pivot at 1.6431 may also be considered during the European open.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 172.84 moderate / 173.04 minor / 173.69 moderate
Support: 172.27 moderate / 171.72 moderate / 131.730 moderate

Following a piercing pattern Tuesday we have GBPJPY with a further rally yesterday looking set for a push to the swing highs at 174.82 in the coming days. Note from a fundamental perspective we have argument for a stronger Cable out of good UK economic conditions and Japanese policy weakening the yen. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up while macd is bearish. We are following through the bounce from the bullish daily EMA’s. In the lower time frames we have a mixed view with 4H stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd has just pushed up through the zero line. Candlesticks themselves have higher highs and higher lows after every pause. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading up and dropping towards the zero line. At the moment we are just above the daily pivot at 172.27, consider buys off the said price during the European open.

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