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Articles by Mark De La Paz

August 27th, 2013 @ 1:46 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 98.43 moderate / 98.68 moderate / 98.84 minor
Support: 98.05 moderate / 97.83 moderate / 97.48 minor

Following reports of the US likely hitting its deficit limit by October, USDJPY saw a sell-off after an earlier wipsawish trade as global equities sold-of for good. We now have prices inside the daily EMA lines while stochastic has come-off overbought levels and the macd’s have slipped back under the zero line though waiting for a bear cross. Note his is a follow through to our rejection from the bearish trend line off July 7 highs. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of bears the 4H stochastic pushing into oversold areas while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears as well with stochastic in oversold areas and macds heading lower. Given the sell-off in equities we prefer looking for shorts on a close under 98.03 or coming off the daily pivot at 9.43.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 153.37 moderate / 153.73 moderate / 154.01 minor
Support: 152.76 moderate / 152.12 moderate / 151.74 minor

After a roller coaster session we ended down with a bearish Sen candle as Yen pairs sold-off across the board late in US trading. Among indicators we have a bearish divergence from daily stochastic while macd is topping off. Note we have had an ongoing mean reversion from Friday highs with its ‘dark cloud cover’. In 4H charts we have stochastic looking to push back into oversold territory while macd is also heading lower, looking to drop below the zero line. Hourly charts has stochastic in oversold areas while macd also has a new bear cross. Immediate risk calls for a bear market though we prefer looking for a rejection from 153.37 the daily pivot.

EURJPY
Resistances: 131.52 minor / 131.95 moderate / 132.42 moderate
Support: 131.05 moderate / 130.71 moderate / 130.27 minor

Along with the rest of the Yen pairs EURJPY saw a sell-off as US equities tanked late in the trading day on US deficit concerns. Given the prior gap between prices and the daily EMA lines we may now be seeing a mean reversion. Indicators has daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is also topping off. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also heading lower from the 4H picture, this as hourly charts has stochastic beginning to crawl oversold areas while macd is also under the zero line heading down. We prefer looking for shorts on a close under the 131.05 support area. Alternatively a sell-off in Asian equities and European indices can also be used as a trigger for jumping short.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8984 moderate / 0.9006 minor / 0.9038 moderate
Support: 0.8960 minor / 0.8931 minor / 0.8884 moderate

After a brief spike to the daily EMA lines we have Aussy ending with along wick in the daily charts reinforcing the notion of a resumption of the bear market. Note we have prices under the daily EMA’s while indicators for now show mixed signals as stochastic come’s off oversold levels while macd is dropping. In 4H charts we have stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is also in the process of seeing a bear cross while under the zeroline. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oversold and macd’s also dropping. Given the daily candles we prefer looking for a bear market consider shorts from just under the 8984 region, S1 in daily pivots.

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August 26th, 2013 @ 1:43 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5580 moderate / 15622 moderate / 1.5653 minor
Support: 1.5538 moderate / 1.5518 minor / 1.5490 minor

Friday again saw a sharp whipsaw in Cable to end with a high wave spinning top with the push to both extremes turning out brief. Among indicators we still have a bearish daily macd while stochastic remains under the oversold threshold though currently looking poised to take a peek above 20. From the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas with a minor bullish divergence, this as macd is flat below the zero and the signal lines. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic and macd seeing new bullish crosses. Immediate risk calls for a bounce though with prices just under the pivot at 1.5580 it would be better to look for a close on an hourly basis now during the open of Asian markets or look to surge higher at he open of Europe. Note we have a holiday in the UK.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9038 minor / 0.9059 moderate / 0.9078 minor
Support: 0.8980(84) moderate / 0.8963 minor / 0.8931 minor

After selling-off from the early part of the week we have Aussy pulling back Thursday/Friday to the 38.2 Fib retracement level and ending up with a high wave candle for the last trading day, suggesting we look for a resumption of our bear market. From indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold areas while daily macd is bearish. In the 4H level we are slowly getting lower highs and lower lows from the candles though overall price acton is mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd pointing up. Hourly charts has stochastic pushing for oversold levels along with a new bearish crossover from macd. For now look for a close below the daily pivot, at 0.9015 to get the bears going.

USDJPY
Resistance: 98.83 moderate / 99.15 moderate / 99.53 minor
Support: 98.(35)40 moderate / 98.12 minor / 97.83 moderate

In the end we have a high wave spinning top in USDJPY for Friday with market spending much of it in consolidation following the rally from midweek. Among indicators we have just sen daily macd push up through the zero line though stochastic has also come-off overbought levels. Note prices are just above the daily EMA’s with markets triggering an inverted head and shoulder Thursday. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing up while macd’s also sea a bear cross. hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears though price action has been indecisive. We have macd’s poised to push under the zeroline and stochastic with a new bear cross. We prefer looking for a pullback to the daily EMA’s and buying off a bounce from the 55D EMA our objective to push through a bearish trend line from July 7.

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August 23rd, 2013 @ 1:36 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5593 moderate / 1.5625 moderate / 1.5653 moderate
Support: 1.5563 moderate / 1.5534 moderate / 1.5500 psychological

Thursday saw Cable breaking lower pushing through the weeks congestion lows and closing low enough thathe breakout remain valid triggering a mean reversion play. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also seeing a new bear cross. From the lower time frames we are seeing indecision signals as 4H stochastic comes off oversold areas while macd has just pushed under the zero-line. Hourly charts in-turn has a new bear cross in stochastic while macd is heading up for the zeroline. Given the bearish breakout and daily signals we prefer focusing on getting a bear market going. Consider shorts coming off the resistances at 1.5526 or on a close below 1.5563 our objective to finish mean reversion getting to the 21DEMA at 1.5500.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.06 moderate / 99.27 moderate / 99.56 minor
Support: 98.77 minor / 98.51 moderate / 98.10 minor

At the close we have USDJPY around its highs as we triggered a daily scale inverted head and shoulder and saw an equity market rebound. From indicators we have stochastic entering overbought levels while macd is also heading up looking to push through the zero line. Intraday we have stochastic crawling in overbought areas while macd is also heading up in he 4H picture. We also find stochastic oscillating around 80 at the hourly level with a new bullish crossover from macd. Note while we have a strong start from Asian equities the risk for today will be on the QE taper which could quickly change markets tone. We will be seeing the start of the Jackson hole summit venue for the announce of previous QE actions. Any hint or detail of slowing down or shutting the printing press could quickly see a stock market sell-off and increase USDJPY volatily.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9046 moderate / 0.9081 moderate / 0.9098 minor
Support: 0.8996 moderate / 0.8942(50) moderate / 0.8906 minor

Aussy saw a bounce Thursday as Chinese manufacturing figure saw a recovery the HSBC Flash Manufacturing Index bouncing to 50.1 against consensus expectation of another contraction at 48.3. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in macd while stochastic is in oversold areas we see yesterdays knee-jerk response to data as allowing bears to pair down their shorts from earlier in he week. From the 4H picture we have a mixed view with stochastic crossing lower while macd’s is seeing a new bullish cross this as candlesticks are indecisive. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with both stochastic and macd seeing new bearish crossovers. At the moment we also see a double top in the hourly picture. Considering the scenario of reduce QE from he US risk going forward fill before a bear, the preferred course of action shorting on a close below the 0.8996 pivot. Alternative entry will be coming off 0.9046, the 38.2 Fib retracement level. for the weeks drop.

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August 22nd, 2013 @ 1:22 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5648 moderate / 1.5683 moderate / 1.5716 minor
Support: 1.5603 moderate / 1.575 moderate / 1.5534 minor

Cable charts has us at the weeks congestion floor as attempts to push for the swing highs at 1.5749 were abandoned with the FOMC minutes signaling the Fed was on track for tapering off. Indicators show stochastic coming off overbought areas and macds at risk of a bar cross. Given the sharp turnaround yesterday mean reversion will be a developing theme with our large gap from the daily EMA lines. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic just pushing oversold as macd’s drop. Hourly charts are equally bearish with stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also dropping. Immediate risk calls for a bearish breakout a close under 1.5601 signalling that we have mean reversion to the daily EMA’s the 21D EMA at 1.5502, just around psychological levels.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3359 moderate / 1.3385 minor / 1.3416 moderate
Support: 1.3308 moderate / 1.3279 minor / 1.3238 moderate

EURUSD has a ‘dark cloud cover’ in daily charts suggesting our run for highs may be over with a false breakout of the May highs at 1.3416. Daily indicators has macd just under the signal line while stochastic is heading lower having failed to even see overbought levels. note we have prices just above the daily EMA lines though previous pullbacks saw us crashing through. From intraday charts we are seeing sell signals the 4H picture showing stochastic with a new push to oversold levels and macd poised to go under the zero-line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also dropping. For now we are looking for follow through weakness preferring a sell on rallies to the 1.3359(67)resistance area. Note the key thing going forward will be the European equity open should they signal a global rout we would call the weeks highs as a medium term top.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8985(96) moderate / 0.9024 minor / 0.9057 moderate
Support: 0.8935(40) moderate / 0.8906 minor / 0.8865 minor

Wednesday saw AUDUSD with a follow through to its double top breakout in the daily charts with a broadly firmer dollar pushing things along. Among indicators we have the daily stochasticjust pushing oversold while macd has also crossed lower remaining below the zeroline. This signals a resumption of our bear market the eventual objective taking out swing lows at 0.8847. In the lower timeframes we are seeing a confluence of bears in hourly and 4-hour indicators we have stochastic oversold in both time-frames while macd is also below zero and dropping for both. Going forward our focus will be on getting further weakness as a slowdown in Australia and in China also puts the currency under pressure. We have the recipe needed for Aussy to ease down to the historical norms over the next few weeks.

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August 20th, 2013 @ 1:27 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9149 moderate / 0.9180 minor / 0.9219 moderate
Support: 0.9107 minor / 0.9058(66) moderate / 0.9024 minor

After testing the 55D EMA we have Aussy selling off monday to close under the daily EMA linesand form a double top from the daily charts. Daily indicators now has a bearish divergence in stochastic to complement the reversal pattern though macd is still above zero and heading up. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears from 4H charts with stochastic in oversold levels while macd is heading down though price charts show indecision. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s flat below the signal and stochastic looking to cross lower. Ahead we have the release of the latest RBA policy meeting minutes, a willingness by the RBA to lower rates further in the coming months or concern over the situation in China would likely be a catalyst for us to trigger the patter dropping under 0.9057.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1371.43 moderate / 1378.16 minor / 1384.49 minor
Support: 1363.20 moderate / 1358.28 moderate / 1347.09 moderate

Combining the brief Sunday trade with the rest of the Monday candle we have a ‘dark cloud cover’ in daily charts coming off the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from May, for a false break from the prior week. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also topping out. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming-off over sold levels and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bullish cross and macd’s flat below the signal beneath the zeroline. At the moment we appear to be at a possible near term top for Gold charts, consider shorts on a break of 1363.20 preferably coming off 1370.44.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.44 moderate / 130.71 moderate / 131.05 moderate
Support: 129.98 moderate / 129.65 moderate / 129.15 minor

Earlier attempts to rally up in EURJPY saw a rejection in New York trade as stock markets eased off. Note we are continuing our sell-off in US equity indices and seeing reversal patterns pop-up in daily candlestick for European equity indices. Daily indicators remain mixed with stochastic continuing its bear signal while macd is looking to push above the zeroline, we have along wick from the daily charts as a result of the turnaround. In the lower time-frames we have sell signals from he 4h picture stochastic looking to pushover sold and macd with a new bear cross. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd flat below the signal. For now we prefer a sell on rallies with shorts off 130.71 or on a push below the daily EMA lines.

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August 19th, 2013 @ 1:59 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 97.87 minor / 98.13 moderate / 98.36 moderate
Support: 97.48 minor / 97.18 minor / 96.85 moderate

After Fridays bounce we have USDJPY just under the daily EMA lines with opening the week with a small bullish gap trying to takeout the 50 Fib area of the August down swing. Daily indicators has macd’s heading up though still under the zeroline while stochastic is at risk of a bullish crossover. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic heading for overbought levels in 4h charts while macd is in the process of crossing up. Hourly charts has stochastic looking to push overbought, this as macd’s are poised to go through the zeroline. Earlier figures from Japan were a cause for concern with the trade shortfall worsening reading -0.94 Trillion Yen with previous numbers also revised lower. Immediate risk calls for a bullish breakout with a close above 97.87 as our trigger though we expect limited ranges and possible shorts from 98.36, the 61.8 Fib.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.44 moderate / 130.71 minor / 131.11 moderate
Support: 129.94 moderate / 129.55 moderate / 129.21 minor

The past week saw EURJPY stuck in a ranging market with as attempt to push higher kept getting rejected from the bearish trendline of our daily lower highs from the July 24 peak. Daily indicators show mixed signals with stochastic heading down and macd’s bullish though waiting for an push up through the zeroline. Note we have the daily EMA lines flattening out with price action underscoring the indecisive market. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold areas and macd’s just under the signal line. Hourly charts has a new bear cross in stochastic following the earlier rejection from the 61.8 Fib at 130.44 and a break of the daily pivot. Given these look for a close under 129.94 as a trigger for more shorts. Potentially we could be seeing the start of bear market heading for 127.93 the 61.8 fib retracement level.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5653 moderate / 1.5678 moderate / 1.5712 minor
Support: 1.5603 moderate / 1.5574 moderate / 1.5534 minor

Friday was consolidation day in Cable following a sharp rally Thursday. Daily indicators now has stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is above the signal line and the zero mark. At the moment we appear set to continue our push for the swing highs at 1.5750 though the growing gap between prices and the daily EMA lines is a cause for concern. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals following Friday’s consolidation as stochastic see a new bullish cross from the 4H picture while macd also has a new bear cross. hourly charts are similarly mixed with a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. Consider Cable as a possible straddle ona close outside of R1 and S1, 1.5653 and 1.5603 respectively. Note we are equally willing to look for buys on a hammer or dragonfly doji with tails sticking under 1.5603.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9221 moderate / 0.9257 minor / 0.9297 strong
Support: 0.9176 moderate / 0.9138 moderate / 0.9107 minor

Friday saw Aussy surging back up to the previous swing highs as commodity markets also surged across the board. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing higher into overbought levels while macds cross the zeroline up. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels while macd is flat above the zeroline. Hourly charts however are seeing a new confluence of bears with stochastic just crossing lower and macd’s heading down. Ahead we have Aussy data to watch out for New Motor Vehicle Sales for July though absent a consensus forecast we will rely on textbook interpretation a bad read an excuse for Aussy weakness. For now given Australian fundies and monetary policy we prefer looking for shorts off the 0.9220 region with daily charts again forming a possible double top.

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August 16th, 2013 @ 1:35 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3370 minor / 1.3406(15) moderate / 1.3457 minor
Support: 1.3342 minor / 1.3300(06) moderate / 1.3278 moderate

After the knee-jerk sell-off in EURUSD following better than expected job numbers in the US we have Euro closing the day strongly as market turned around with later output figures from the US disappointing and markets concerned that tapering off could lead to poorer US economic outlook. Among indicators we have mixed signals with daily stochastic heading up while macd is bearish. In 4H charts we have stochastic in overbought areas while macd has just crossed the zero mark. Hourly charts for their part are mixed as markets went sideways at the highs following the midday turnaround in the US. going forward we will be keeping a close eye on Asian equities given the US sell-off should weakness reach the European focus ought to be on getting a bear market. Consider shorts then at the break of 1.3342 the congestion floor in afternoon trade for New York.

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August 15th, 2013 @ 1:59 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 98.36 moderate / 98.60 minor / 98.90 minor
Support: 97.76 moderate / 97.32 moderate / 96.85 moderate

Wednesday saw a tight range for USDJPY with little catalyst to speak of for a minimal rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level for the August sell-off. From indicators we have daily stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. We appear to be in the process of taking out the 34D EMA with 55D EMA close by at 98.47. In the lower time frames we are seeing bullish confluence in the making with stochastic crossing up in 4h charts and macd’s bouncing off their signal line. Hourly stochastic has come-off oversold levels while macd is also looking to cross up. Note the resistance line for our lower highs from July is at the 99.00 area. For now we are looking for a close above 98.36, the 61.8 fib retracement, to signal further gains to the said resistance line.

EURJPY

Resistance: 130.00 moderate / 130.34 moderate / 130.65 minor
Support: 129.49 moderate / 129.21 minor / 128.90 moderate

EURJPY almost gave us a ‘dark cloud cover’ in the daily charts missing the mid point of our spike up from Tuesday. We have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, yesterday’s 130.65 potentially the former. Among indicators we have daily macd’s poised to cross up while stochastic is flattening out at risk of crossing lower, these as EMA lines continue to flatten out after recent dead crosses. In the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of bears in 4H charts as stochastic push oversold and macd’s see a new bear cross. Hourly charts has stochastic pushing under the zero line while macd comes off oversold levels. Given the big picture we would like to focus on a sell on rallies with yesterdays highs the latest of the lower highs. consider a scaled entry shorts from 130.00, today’s pivot and R1 at 130.35.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9159 minor / 0.9176 moderate / 0.9220 moderate
Support: 0.9119 moderate / 0.9078 moderate / 0.9044 moderate

Wednesday saw Aussy staying within the daily EMA lines bouncing off the 21DEMA to close just above 34D EMA. Among indicators we have a mixed set of signals with daily stochastic heading lower and macd’s heading up. Note we have daily EMA’s going flat though bearish overall. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture as stochastic pushes overbought and macd’s see anew bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s with anew bullish cross. With metal prices on the rise we are seeing intermarket support for the bullish technical picture in Aussy. For now look for a follow through with the previous swing highs at 0.9220 as our main object.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5547 minor / 1.5567 moderate / 1.5600 moderate
Support: 1.5495 moderate / 1.5465 minor / 1.5428 moderate

After drifting lower for the first half of the week we have Cable bouncing off the breakout point from last week, previous highs at 1.5428 to close backup above the 1.5500 level. Daily indicators however remain mixed with stochastic still heading lower and macd’s flat above the signal line. From the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic just under overbought areas easing off aftera brief peak in New York trade while macd has a new bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has an overbought stochastic while macd is looking for a bullish crossover. Note we have started the trading day just above the daily pivots suggesting a focus for the buy side. We also will be seeing retail Sales figures the month-on-month consensus a strong jump of 0.7%, enough catalyst for pushing through the previous swing highs.

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