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Articles by Mark De La Paz

October 16th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3536 minor / 1.3570 minor / 1.3600 moderate
Support: 1.3506 minor / 1.3482 moderate / 1.3460 moderate

Euro saw more than its daily averages yesterday with a bearish daily candle for a close as we find prices back under the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower while macd’s are also dropping. Note we remain inside the congestion for the past month, waiting for a catalyst to push through our floors. From the lower time frames we are seeing an indecisive combination of signals with 4H macd’s down and stochastic heading up. Hourly charts are also mixed with stochastic heading lower and macd’s up. Given the broader picture we prefer taking the sell side of Euro following a break of 1.3507, an hourly close below 1.3482 could spark the next big down leg.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1281.28 minor / 1288.15 minor / 1294.41 moderate
Support: 1274.19 minor / 1266.59 moderate / 1260.86 minor

Gold continues to discount the possibility of a default by the US with Tuesday price action seeing bears drag Gold charts to new lows as we continue to ease beneath the the 61.8 fib retracement level of the rally from June 28. Note we ended up with along tail for a high wave spinning top in the daily charts potentially defining the bottom of our bear trend. Daily indicators has macd’s dropping while stochastic is coming off oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H indicators stochastic and macd, the former pushing for overbought levels. Hourly charts has stochastic at risk of seeing oversold levels while macd is above the signal line. Given the nearing deadline over raising the US debt ceiling we risk haven plays as any solution remains elusive.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9547 moderate / 0.9600 minor / 0.9620 minor
Support: 0.9516 minor / 0.9498 minor / 0.9484 moderate

Tuesday has Aussy ending the day above the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from April with indicators showing a confluence of buys the daily stochastic back in overbought areas while macd has a new bullish cross, the combination suggesting we are ready for the next surged up. Note yesterdays push effectively invalidates the idea of forming a double top. From the 4H picture we are currently seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up though the latest candlesticks suggests we are looking to push past our congestion ceiling with a bullish engulfing. From the hourly picture we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic poised to cross lower and macd’s up. We do not see any sense of urgency from our charts as such we prefer remaining sidelined for now though a close above 0.9547 should open the way for further gains.

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October 11th, 2013 @ 1:57 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3546 minor / 1.3585 minor / 1.3607 minor
Support: 1.3519 moderate / 1.3486 minor / 1.3463 moderate

Thursday turned out to be a consolidation with attempts to get a follow through bear market thwarted by the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we continue to have sell signals with stochastic looking to push oversold on the daily scale while macd is also bearish. Note we have prices just around the 21D EMA and barely above the daily pivot. From the lower time-frames we have triggered a double-bottom in 4H charts while signals are mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd in the process of crossing up. hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to cross lower and macd technically above the signal line though barely so. Given the mixed intraday picture good supports and bearish daily signals we prefer remaining sidelined. We need an external catalyst for sustained price action, a follow through rally in equity markets could push us off the EMA lines or a resolution in the US debt-ceiling and government shut could drive us clear through the EMA lines.

Gold
Resistance: 1294.51 moderate / 1300.00 minor / 1305.61 moderate
Support: 1282.58 moderate / 1275.27 moderate / 1267.63 moderate

Gold saw a follow through sell-off late in New York markets as we continue the pattern of lower highs, hoping for a lower low. We once again find gold around the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our rally from June. Daily indicators show stochastic pushing oversold while the macd indicator is also dropping. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s dropping though candlesticks has a dragonfly doji. Hourly charts for heir part has macd bottoming out and stochastic off oversold levels. We appear to have an ongoing pullback, for now look for the current bounce to stabilize around the 1294.51 area with a subsequent distribution a signal for us to take the sell side. Consider a scaled entry from 1294.51 hen on from 1300.00 and R1 of pivots at 1305.61.

EURJPY
Resistance: 133.30 moderate / 133.56 minor / 133.94 minor
Support: 132.94 minor / 132.52 moderate / 132.08 moderate

EURJPY managed to rally past our bearish trend-line likely breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows from mid September. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for over bought levels while macd is in the process of crossing up even as we find yesterdays bounce completely pushing past the daily EMA lines. In the lower time-frames we have 4H charts with a confluence of buys, as stochastic crawls in overbought levels and macd is rising with price action showing along tail. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic reentering overbought levels and macd’s beginning to pickup. For now immediate risk seems to be for further gains, however given the extent of our rally from yesterday we prefer waiting for the European open ad sign weakness in European equities could easily see EURJPY change course.

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October 10th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9464 minor / 0.9483 moderate / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9441 moderate / 0.9412 moderate / 0.9378 moderate

Aussy charts are beginning to show indecisive price action with another narrow real body a doji for Wednesday’s candle though over all trend remains bullish still in search for he next higher high with our long tails. Daily indicators for their part has stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd itself is crossing up. Note we risk forming a double top with the loss of momentum though data at 0030GMT could see us on the move again. We have Australian jobs number consensus forecast for the Unemployment Rate at 5.8% and Employment Change expected to show 15200 new jobs. In the lower timeframes we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up and macd’s down in 4H charts while hourly indicators has stochastic heading lower and mac’sup. Given data releases we plan on straddling Aussy just before the release.

AUDJPY
Resistance: 92.39 moderate / 92.75 minor / 93.05 minor
Support: 91.92 minor / 91.66 minor / 91.32 minor

We have had AUDJPY in a range play for the last two weeks though price action from Tuesday till yesterday suggests an attempt at a bullish breakout is once more in progress. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push into overbought levels macd is also looking for a bullish cross, currently we have prices once more above the daily EMA lines following yesterdays surge to the congestion resistances. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with the stochastic indicators for both hourly and 4H charts looking to push overbought. The macd indicators also shows a new bullish cross in the hourly level while heading up as well in 4H charts. Note we have just seen mixed numbers from Australia he Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.6% against the steady 5.8% expectation though we fell short in the number of jobs generated as Employment Change read 9,100 consensus at 15,200 though still a reversal of the prior contraction. Given he data we prefer taking the buy side of AUDJPY on a push past 92.39 or a bounce off 91.92.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5966 minor / 1.5996 moderate / 1.6025 moderate
Support: 1.5918 minor / 1.5884 moderate / 1.5839 minor

Cable saw a big sell-off as hard economic data failed to confirm the optimism among managers with Manufacturing Production and Industrial Output contraction against the picture of growth from CIPS alowng with a worse than expected Trade balance. As a consequence of yesterdays sharp drop we are now back inside the daily EMA lines with stochastic crossing lower poised to reenter oversold areas and macd’s dropping. Price charts show lower highs and lower lows. Note this could be a confirmation of the weekly dark cloud cover. In 4H charts we are seeing mixed signals as price action suggests loss of momentum while stochastic comes off oversold areas and macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd heads up. Given the overall picture we prefer looking for shorts as we set out to confirm the weekly dark cloud cover. Look for shorts at the break of 1.5918.

Gold
Resistance: 1306.51 moderate / 1310.17 minor / 1315.94 moderate
Support: 1299.00 minor / 1294.51 moderate / 1290.71 moderate

Gold saw a sharp drop Wednesday following the spinning top in daily charts the previous day below the daily EMA lines. At the close we had a large black real body with new lows for the week and looking set fora test of the key support at 1277.07, 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from June lows. Daily indicators show macd’s flat with its signal line while stochastic is heading lower. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd and stochastic looking to cross higher. For now we prefer looking for a follow through bear market, our main objective the next day or so a sell-off to the swing lows at 1277.07. We can use a break of the immediate minor supportat 1299.00 which also means you’ve taken out the psychological 1300 area.

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October 9th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1321.92 moderate / 1328.41 moderate / 1335.14 moderate
Support: 1316.09 minor / 1313.67 moderate / 1293.15 minor

With Gold prices again just under the daily EMA lines we find ourselves unable to see a follow through to Mondays strong open. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing for over bought levels along with a new bullish cross in MACD. From the 4H level we are seeing a confluence of bears as macd is in the process of crossing lower and heading back under the zeroline while stochastic is poised to push oversold. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s down. Note with a pattern of lower highs and lowers along with rejections from the EMA lines our preference is to look for shorts on a break of a support line.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9458 minor / 0.9483 moderate / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9413 moderate / 0.9375 moderate / 0.9354 minor

Aussy again saw new highs Tuesday though our close was disappointing given the inability to hold for a high wave spinning top in the daily charts. From indicators we have a new bullish crossover in the making out of the macd’s while daily stochastic is coming off overbought levels. The EMA lines are bullish with a steady ascent. In intraday charts we are seeing sell signals with stochastic bearish in both 4H and hourly time frames while macd has a new bearish crossover in the 4H level even as hourly macd has pushed back under the zero line. At the moment immediate risk calls for a break lower but with a moderate support from S1 at 0.9415 this may be difficult a test without an external catalyst. Take too long to break lower and we will call for buys of the said price around the open of European markets.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6124 minor / 1.6156 moderate / 1.6177 minor
Support: 1.6074 minor / 1.6048 minor / 1.6025 moderate

Tuesday saw Cable with a roller coaster ride initially selling off 1.6098 38.2 Fib retracement of its drop from last week only to close back up with a along tail in the daily charts. Note the initial sell-off saw GBPUSD down to the 21D EMA line allowing argue a big picture bounce. Indicators show stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to push back into overbought areas while macd is looking for a move backup above the zeroline. In hourly charts we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up with a new bullish crossover. For now we appear to have lost some steam in the earlier rally with a double top forming from hourly charts. We also have a slew of UK data Industrial Production and Manufacturing, Credit Conditions Survey and Trade Balance all set for release at 0830GMT. Given this we prefer remaining sidelined with a close under 1.6074 a bearish trip, as it triggers the hourly double top for 1.6028 projected lows.

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October 8th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 131.47 moderate / 131.64 moderate / 131.86 minor
Support: 131.13 minor / 130.97 moderate /130.62 moderate

EURJPY saw new lows in Monday trade after an earlier whipsaw was unable to hold the upside as equity markets dropped across the globe. Daily indicators now have a confluence of bears from the big picture with stochastic in oversold levels while macd has also just pushed below the zero line. In intraday charts we are seeing a confluence of bears with stochastic looking to push back into oversold levels from the 4H picture while macds are also dropping and are below zero. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is flat below the signal line. For the moment there is little sense of urgency though we prefer looking for shorts from under the daily pivot should he equity markets begin to falter further. Any close above 131.47 could alter the scenario for a technical bounce. Note we have a pattern of whipsaws where the lows kept getting lower along with the declining highs.

USDJPY
Resistance: 96.84 moderate / 97.05 moderate / 97.30 moderate
Support: 96.56 minor / 96.28 minor / 95.92 moderate

USDJPY started the week on very bearish footing with new lows from our rejection off the daily EMA lines last week while indicators suggests a continuation of our bear trend. Daily stochastic is pushing further into oversold areas while macd is heading lower and the EMA lines come-off dead crosses. In the 4H picture we have stochastic reentering oversold levels while macd has a new dead cross this given the bearish breakout from the previous candle. Hourly charts for their part are mixed as stochastic comes off oversold areas and macds drop while we see a series of spinning tops. For now the immediate view calls for a follow through sell-off from just under the 98.64 daily central pivot as equity markets continue to slide. Note that the longer we take to sell-off the greater the risk of a pullback, buys can also be taken on a close above 96.84 at the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9458 moderate / 0.9483 minor / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9420 minor / 0.9402 minor / 0.9375 moderate

After easing off early in Asian trade we eventually saw Aussy rally up in European trade to push for the swing highs at 0.9458 with daily indicators showing an overbought stochastic and macd’s seeing a new bullish cross as well. Note we are still looking for a follow through bounce off the 38.2 fib retracement for the September rally and have a valid inverted head and shoulder with 0.9590 as its pattern target. In the lower time-frames we have a mixed view in 4H charts with stochastic looking to push overbought and macds flat just under the signal line. Hourly charts for their has a confluence of buys with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macds poised at a new bullish crossover. Note we have Australian Job Advertisements and the Business Confidence figures up for release at 0030GMT with good reads likely to see us with some follow through rally.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6098 moderate / 1.6122 moderate / 1.6156 moderate
Support: 1.6074 moderate / 1.6049 minor / 1.6025 moderate

Cable saw a close just under the 38.2 Fib retracement of our sell-off from last weeks highs, a moderate resistance, this following a bounce of the 21DEMA. We turned out slightly short of the daily averages on lack of impetus monday. From indicators we are currently seeing a mixed signal from the daily charts as stochastic comes off oversold levels and macds are dropping. Note we continue to see good numbers out of the UK argument for strength in GBP. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys as macd crosses up while stochastic is pushing for overbought levels. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a bullish crosses and macd’s also heading up. for the moment our more immediate risk is fora bullish breakout. Coupled with good economic numbers we prefer looking for a break of 1.6098 as European markets open later and use the move as our entry.

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October 7th, 2013 @ 1:55 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9458 moderate/ 0.9486 minor / 0.9528 moderate
Support: 0.9430 moderate / 0.9408 minor / 0.9388 minor

Aussy saw limited range Friday though still managing to set the highs for the previous week as it continues its bounce off the daily EMA lines and 38.2 Fib retracement level for the September rally from earlier the week past. Daily indicators now see a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas and macd’s a new bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic heads down and macd look’s up while price charts have been mixed though overall trend is bullish. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic overbought and macd heading down. Note we have a bank holiday in Australia though the AIG Construction Index was still released showing improvement yet remaining under 50. Given these for now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for a close above 0.9458 to confirm bullish interest in what could be a slow day.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6063 moderate / 1.6097 minor / 1.6122 moderate
Support: 1.6018 moderate / 1.5982 moderate / 1.5950 moderate

Cable turned out to be a ‘dark cloud cover’ in the weekly charts following Fridays sharp sell-off that added with Thursdays drop more than engulf the price action from earlier in the week. From indicators we have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping, we appear to have opened the week though a bullish gap bouncing off the 21D EMA. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signlas as 4H stochastic tries to come off oversold levels and macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in overbought areas while macds show a new bullish crossover. Given a bare calendar ahead and the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined until either side gives. Look for possible buys above the daily pivot 1.6063 or shorts on a push below the moderate support at 1.5983.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1316.09 minor / 1320.41 minor / 1325.36 moderate
Support: 1311.28 minor / 1302.14 moderate / 1295.31 minor

On the weekly close we have a bear candle in Gold though with a substantial looking tail and modest black body. We still saw the close under 23.6 Fib retracement of the sell-off from October 2012 highs and below the real body of the previous weekly candlesticks. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd flat below the signal. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic crossing highs and macd also looking up nearing a push past the zeroline. Hourly charts however see mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd also has a bullish crossover. Given the mixed view we prefer a straddle with buys above the immediate resistance at 1316.09 or sells under 1311.28 as we cover the minuscule gap at the open. Note any resolution of the US shutdown would likely see Gold charts tanking.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.12 moderate / 132.38 moderate / 132.77 moderate
Support: 131.64 moderate / 131.39 minor / 131.01 moderate

We have EURJPY opening with a bearish gap and in the process of getting a follow through bear market as we try to push under the daily EMA lines continuing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Other indicators has stochastic looking to push oversold while daily EMAs are also poised to push below the zero line, we also have prices under the daily pivot. In intrday charts we have 4H indicators poised to get a confluence of bears with macds already under zero and dropping while stochastic is looking for a bear cross of its own. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off over sold levels while macd has a new bear cross. For now we see little sense of urgency though over all bias is for the sell side, a break of 131.64 can be a bearish entry.

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October 4th, 2013 @ 1:45 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6183 moderate / 1.6214 moderate / 1.6240 minor
Support: 1.6153 minor / 1.6126 moderate / 1.6095 minor

In the end daily candlesticks in Cable show more argument for a sharp pull back with Tuesday’s ‘gravestone doji’ now joined by a ‘bearish engulfing’ of the failed attempt at a new high Wednesday. Daily indicators now has a confluence of bears with stochastic showing a new bearish crossover and the macd’s clearly off overbought areas. we could be seeing the start of a mean reversion play. In 4H charts we have stochastic already oversold and macds looking to push under the zero line. Note we have triggered a double top from the 4H picture. In hourly charts we have stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at risk of a bullish crossover. For now look for a push through the New York congestion floor at 1.6153 to trigger a follow through sell off, pattern target for the double top is at 1.6050.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 157.37 moderate / 157.56 moderate / 157.81 minor
Support: 156.77 moderate / 156.28 moderate / 155.90 minor

GBPJPY triggered a multiple top in the daily charts Thursday dragging prices down into the daily EMA lines while indicators now show stochastic in oversold levels as macd’s continue to head down to the zeroline. Note our pattern target calls for a sell-off to 154.67. From the lower time frames we have 4H indicators showing macd’s below the zeroline and dropping further while stochastic is oversold though at risk of taking a peak above the 20 threshold. hourly charts for their part still has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s below the signal and under zero. For now look for a push below the 34DEMA at 156.77 to trigger a further sell-off our objective the 55D EMA at 155.61 possibly on to the pattern target in the coming week.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9734 moderate / 0.9457 minor / 0.9486 minor
Support: 0.9393 moderate / 0.9372 moderate / 0.9354 minor

Thursday saw Aussy with a tighter range though still a bullish candle keeping the idea of a push to the psychological 0.9500 going as we continue our bounce off the 38.2 Fib retracement for the September rally. Among indicators we have stochastic poised to push overbought while macd is also looking for a bullish crossover. note this is also a bounce off the daily EMA lines. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys as stochastic in both 4H and hourly charts are moving for the overbought areas even as we see new bullish crossovers out of the macd indicator. For now we are looking for a push through the weeks highs at 0.9434 for a surge to the 0.9500 area.

USDJPY
Resistance: 97.30 moderate / 97.51 minor / 97.77 moderate
Support: 96.86 moderate / 96.38 minor / 95.92 moderate

In the end all the whipsaw in USDJPY intraday charts turned out to be a daily high wave spinning top suggesting a loss of bearish momentum even as indicators continue to argue the sell side. We have prices under bearish daily EMA lines with dead crosses from earlier in the week while stochastic has pushed oversold and macd’s are dropping. In intraday charts we are also seeing mixed signals as stochastic is poised to push higher failing to see oversold areas while macd see a bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has sell signals stochastic looking to push oversold. Given the high wave spinning top the preferred course of action is to remain sidelined as we risk a technical correction with the end of the week. A close below 96.83 however should see us with follow through weakness while a close above 97.30 could see a technical correction with the weekend.

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October 3rd, 2013 @ 1:51 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9375 minor / 0.9392 minor / 0.9410 minor
Support: 0.9342 moderate / 0.9333 minor/ 0.9312 moderate

After an earlier sell-off Aussy managed to build a base off the 0.9338 area for a bounce in New York to close with along tail in daily candles. This reinforces the notion of bouncing off the 21D EMA though indicators remain mixed as we have yet to see macd’s turn up though daily stochastic is bullish. Given that we came off a bounce from the 38.2 Fib retracement of the September rally the long tail should underscore the presence of bulls. From the 4h picture we have yet to see macd’s crossing up though we are poised to do so while stochastic is looking to push through the 80 level, we risk forming an evening star at the close. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading down while macd is above the signal line. Look for buys off S1 at 0.9342 or on a close above 0.9375.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.50 minor / 132.77 moderate / 133.05 minor
Support: 132.09 moderate / 131.61 moderate / 131.41 minor

In the end EURJPY bounced off its European morning trade congestion floor to close with along tailfor the daily charts, a possible bullish reversal hammer. That said we are still within the daily EMA’s with little catalyst for risk taking. From indicators we have daily stochastic poised to cross lower while macd is heading for the zero line. In the lower time frames we are seeing buy signals despite the lack of momentum from price action, 4H stochastic is looking to push overbought while macd has anew bullish cross. In the hourly charts we are seeing a similarly bullish setup with stochastic heading up and macd looking to push through the zero line. For now we prefer remaining sidelined waiting for a close under 132.09 to signal a resumption of the risk averse tone from the broader market.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3606 minor / 1.3629 moderate / 1.3669 minor
Support: 1.3567 moderate / 1.3539 minor / 1.3512 moderate

Wednesday saw Euro pushing through two week long congestion resistances to close with a bullish breakout suggesting we make run for the previous swing highs at 1.3710. Daily indicators has stochastic looking up while macd’s see a new bullish crossover. Note given our congestion the past two weeks daily EMA’s have caught up with prices reducing the risk of mean reversion. Intraday we have a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s up in the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s with a bearish crossover and stochastic heading up. Given the flag in our hourly charts we prefer looking for an eventual bullish break out.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1321.50 moderate / 1333.10 moderate / 1337.62 minor
Support: 1312.38 minor / 1305.55 moderate / 1293.45 minor

Gold rallied as markets reasses the US government shutdown and the private sector reports its work disruptions. Daily indicators now has a mixed view as stochastic is in the process of crossing higher while macd is bearish. Note we appear to have kept the pattern of lower highs and lower lows from September. In the lower time frames we are seeing more mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought areas and macd show a bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking to push oversold while macd has a new bear cross in the making. Immeidate riskfor gold is to test the daily pivot at 1305.55. We look forward to seeing price action suggest we are ready to bounce off these levels.

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