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Articles by Mark De La Paz

December 2nd, 2013 @ 1:03 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9145 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9204 moderate
Support: 0.9100 moderate / 0.9070 moderate / 0.9016 minor

Aussy saw a consolidation during the US holidays with Friday turning out to be a high wave candle around the 78.6 Fib of the rally from August. This puts a pause to our sell-off following the daily head and shoulder break out from November 21st. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s trying bottom out. Note we have big gap between prices and daily EMA lines opening the possibility of mean reversion. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in the making with 4H macd heading up and stochastic poised to rejoin it. Hourly charts also have a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to push overbought and macd juts crossing higher. Immediate risk calls for a pullback with the break of 0.9145 a trigger for buys though we do not plan on overstaying our welcome considering the RBA’s threats of intervention to weaken the currency.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 0.9145 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9204 moderate
Support: 0.9100 moderate / 0.9070 moderate / 0.9016 minor

Aussy saw a consolidation during the US holidays with Friday turning out to be a high wave candle around the 78.6 Fib of the rally from August. This puts a pause to our sell-off following the daily head and shoulder break out from November 21st. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s trying bottom out. Note we have big gap between prices and daily EMA lines opening the possibility of mean reversion. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys in the making with 4H macd heading up and stochastic poised to rejoin it. Hourly charts also have a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to push overbought and macd juts crossing higher. Immediate risk calls for a pullback with the break of 0.9145 a trigger for buys though we do not plan on overstaying our welcome considering the RBA’s threats of intervention to weaken the currency.

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November 29th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6357 moderate / 1.3679 moderate / 1.6406 minor
Support: 1.6325 moderate / 1.6304 moderate / 1.6260 moderate

Taking advantage of low liquidity we have Cable managing to sustain its rally from Wednesday getting a follow through to its bullish breakout,the push past 1.6260 with charts now looking set to move on the two year highs at 1.3679. Indicators show stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is heading up with EMA’s also pushing higher with a modest gap with prices above it. In the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic oscillating around the 80 threshold while macd is flat above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s also dropping. Note we have formed a double top in the hourly picture. Given the latter immediate risk is for a pullback though we would like to see base building around the 1.6304 level or at the breakout point at 1.6260 and consider buys off the said prices for a run to the two year highs at 1.6279.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9065 minor / 0.9100 moderate / 0.9136 moderate
Support: 0.9014 moderate / 0.8960 moderate / 0.8916 moderate

After an early bounce in Thursdays trade we have Aussy easing off as the US stayed closed in North American markets for a long wick in the daily charts. We are currently seeing new lows on a poor start for the last trading day of the month with earlier numbers a convenient excuse for resuming the bear market as with Private Sector Credit falling short of expectations to read 0.3%. Among indicators we have stochastic crawling in oversold areas while macd is down with market thus far ignorning the widening gap between prices and EMA lines. From the $H picture we have a confluence of bears in the making as stochastic is poised to push oversold while macd is also at risk of a bear cross. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is dropping. We already have half the average daily range for Aussy. Consider shorts at market with prices under 0.9065 our objective the moderate support at 0.9014. Note this is all part of a big picture head and shoulder breakout.

USDJPY
Resistance: 102.51 moderate / 102.63 minor / 102.90 minor
Support: 102.20 moderate / 101.92 moderate / 101.65 minor

Given the ‘Thanksgiving Holidays’ in the US we have USDJPY seeing a tight range play though at the close we still managed to push for new highs as we look set to make a run for the 5-year highs at 103.69. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought areas with a new bullish crossover this as macd’s are also rising. note we have a huge gap between prices and daily EMA lines though there is little callfor mean reversion in the price action. From the lower timeframes we have a confluence of buys as stochastic is crawling in overbought areas while macd is flat above the signal line. hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s pointing down. We remain bullish overall though entry is preferably a buy on dips to 101.92 or on a close above the 102.51 area in European open trade.

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November 27th, 2013 @ 1:48 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9139 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9190(04) moderate
Support: 0.9070(76) moderate / 0.9023 minor / 0.9000 psychological

Aussy saw a follow through sell-off yesterday despite the spinning top in the day prior to it on reports of hedge fund activity. In the end we extend the sell-off from Wednesday last week to ease down to just above the 78.6 Fiob retracement of our rally from August. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold levels and macd’s heading lower even as EMA lines begin to open up with 21D EMA falling steeply after the dead crosses last week. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys between 4H stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is heading up for the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic bearish and macd’s heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for shorts from under the daily pivot in European morning trade or coming off R1 at 0.9190.

USDJPY

Resistance: 101.37 moderate / 101.60 moderate / 101.91 minor
Support: 101.12 minor / 100.87 moderate / 100.43 moderate

In the end with equity markets getting nowhere and generally bearish we have USDJPY with a bearish engulfing at the close seeing stochastic come off overbought areas while the macd indicators is topping off. Note we have a big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines that mean reversion is also a distinct possibility. From the 4H picture we have stochastic hugging oversold levels while macd is heading lower, we have seen a steady drop of the candles highs and lows for this time period. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming out of oversold areas while macd is also bottoming out. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a break of 101.12 could be seen as a bearish entry for 100.43, we will also consider selling if prices stay under 101.37 by the time European markets open.

EURAUD
Resistance: 1.4888 minor / 1.4933 moderate / 1.4991 moderate
Support: 1.4841 moderate / 1.4820 moderate / 1.4753 moderate

With Aussy taking a hit and the Euro bouncing off EMA lines EURAUD managed to rally Tuesday pushing past Monday’s shooting star highs seeing indicators with further buys. From indicators we see daily stochastic overbought and macd’s heading up while EMA lines are also pushing higher. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in the 4H level with stochastic remaining above the 80 threshold while is pushing back up through its signal line, price action has us testing yesterdays highs. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing higher while macd is flat below the signal line. Given the general picture we expect to see a bullish Euro and bearish Aussy to continue to drive EURAUD up for the psychological 1.5000 level. Consider buys at the break of 1.4888 or on a bounce off 1.5841.

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November 26th, 2013 @ 1:34 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1251.44 moderate / 1258.04 minor / 1263.50 moderate
Support: 1245.27 minor / 1237.30 moderate / 1227.95 minor

After an earlier sell-off at the open of European markets we have Gold seeing a turn around in New York trade to close around the previous swing lows from October suggesting that mean reversion is a possibility. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is bottoming out. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in the 4H picture with stochastic pushing for overbought levels while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up. Given the mixed views we prefer remaining sidelined though a 4H close with a little wick and decent sized body would suggest mean reversion is in play. Note we are in the process of pushing past a moderate resistance at 1251.44.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6175 moderate / 1.6205 minor / 1.6240 moderate
Support: 1.6133 minor / 1.6111 moderate / 1.6070 moderate

Cable saw a sharp sell-off yesterday with a daily ‘Bearish Engulfing’ closing well inside the body of Thursday bullish breakout. Among indicators we have a bearish divergence in daily stochastic while macd’s are flat above the signal line. Note we could be seeing a setup for mean reversion overall context a ranging market from 1.6260 down to 1.5120. In the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part are looking to ease off overbought areas while macd see a bullish cross. Key event for the day will be the BoE’s inflation report where expectations suggests further excuse for weakness is possible given how price pressures have eased over the past year without any need for policy action. Consider shorts from just under the daily pivot around the open of European markets.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9197 minor / 0.9245 moderate / 0.9283 strong
Support: 0.9155 moderate / 0.9112 moderate / 0.9088 minor

Monday saw Aussy with an attempt at the 0.9112 region a moderate support following through the break of 0.9283 from Thursday last week. At the close however we have a high wave candle suggesting that bearish momentum has been lost. Among indicators we have daily stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping along with bearish EMA lines though the high wave candle and large gap between prices and EMA’s suggests mean reversion is a big possibility. Intraday we are seeing buy signals with 4H stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s just crossing up while from the hourly picture we have stochastic crawling in overbought levels and macd’s also rising. Note we saw a quick surge higher from the open just above the daily pivot at 0.9155. For now we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the daily pivot though a push past 0.9197 may also be seen as a bullish entry, our objective to atleast pullback to the 50 Fib level, incidentally our key support from before at 0.9283.

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November 25th, 2013 @ 1:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9187 moderate / 0.9207 minor / 0.9249 minor
Support: 0.9143 minor / 0.9112 moderate / 0.9076 moderate

Aussy saw a sharp sell-off again Friday to continue from the bearish engulfing midweek, a rejection off EMA lines. We now find AUDUSD in oversold levels justified by the break of the 0.9283 key support level with daily stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s also header lower, already below the zero line. Daily EMA’s also have new bear crosses. For the moment we have prices just under the daily pivot at 0.9187 while intraday we retain a bearish bias. The 4H stochastic is crawling pversold while macd’s down. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up. Given hints of possible intervention from the RBA and views talks over the end of the commodity supercycle we remain generally bearish in Aussy though the lack of catalyst will have us wait for European open before looking for shorts from just under the daily pivot, 0.9187. Note a technical correction a possibility on a close above 0.9187.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3567 moderate / 1.3600 moderate / 1.3647 moderate
Support: 1.3525 moderate / 1.3493 moderate / 1.3462 minor

Euro managed a strong close Friday pushing back up above the daily EMA lines and ending the day with a bozu. We appear to be seeing higher lows with the bounce off 38.2 Fib of the July rally Thursday. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has also crossed up looking to surface through the zero line. Note Euro’s upside could be underpinned by Irans nuclear concessions though the chart is well resisted. In the lower time frames we have a pregnant pattern, a bearish harami in the making with a long wick sticking out to define the possible high for the day. Indicators wise 4H stochastic is crawling overbought and macd is pointing up. In hourly charts we have argument for a pullback with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s seeing a new bear cross. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the absence of a catalyst though a break of the daily pivot will be a bearish entry.

EURNZD
Resistance: 1.6523 minor / 1.6596 moderate / 1.6676 moderate
Support: 1.6467 minor / 1.6436 moderate / 1.6370 moderate

EURNZD rallied to around its bear channel resistance line in the past week managing to push back above the daily EMA lines Thursday. Currently we have prices coming off its bullish gap from the open, raising the possibility of a dark cloud cover in the making. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to come out of overbought areas though macd has just pushed up through the zero line. In the 4H level we have an evening start with stochastic trying to come-off overbought areas and macd’s topping off. This as prices are in the process of pushing under the daily pivot at 1.6502. For their part, hourly charts has stochastic oversold and macd’s also heading lower. Note with Euro well resisted and Kiwi trying to push back up above its breakout point from last week, we may have the EURNZD cross set for a sharp sell-off.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1244.69 moderate / 1251.49 moderate / 1255.55 minor
Support: 1237.30 moderate / 1232.51 minor / 1215.88 moderate

Gold has seen a series of spinning tops and doji’s following its break of 1250 last week suggesting a loss of momentum though with prices remaining under 1250 we continue to have a bearish bias. Among indicators we have an oversold stochastic and bearish macd though the gap with the EMA lines and indecisive candles opens the possibility of a mean reversion play. In intraday charts we continue to see the indecisive tone from the sideways price action in 4H candles and bearish stochastic while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part suggests a pullback risk as stochastic head up and macd’s are poised to push back above the zero line. For now we will still remain sidelined though an hourly close above the daily pivot at 1244.69 may be seen as a bullish entry possibly the start of a mean reversion play.

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November 22nd, 2013 @ 1:56 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0526 minor / 1.0548 moderate / 1.0568 minor
Support: 1.0516 minor / 1.0499 moderate / 1.0472 moderate

USDCAD saw a strong close Thursday,just under the days highs, as broader dumping of commodities and commodity currencies gave us a bounce of the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys with daily stochastic poised to push into overbought levels while macd has anew bullish cross. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s topping out. Note we have key data coming out of Canada later on with the month-on-month Retail Sales figures expected to read 0.2% for core and 0.3% in the headline. We are also seeing CPI figures around the same time at 1330GMT. Given the releases it would be bestto remain sidelined, a strong read will be an excuse to pullback to the daily EMA’s while poor numbers could see us pushing through the 1.0526 region.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9256 minor / 0.9285 moderate / 0.9320 minor
Support: 0.9221 moderate / 0.9177 moderate / 0.9112 moderate

Along with the rest of the commodity currencies we saw Aussy with a sharp sell-off this on a combination of RBA policy and the growing idea that the commodity super cycle for the past decade ha ended. Looking at the indicators we have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold in the daily charts while macd’s are heading lower and EMA lines see new dead crosses.Note we are just above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our rally from August lows. In intraday charts we are seeing signs of a technical correction after the huge sell-off the past two days. Hourly indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has bottomed out. In the 4H level we have a hammer in the candlesticks while stochastic is coming out of oversold areas though macd remains bearish. For the moment with prices coming off the 61.8 fib for the first time our immediate risk is a technical correction a bounce off 0.9221 for 0.9285 though we would look for a rejection of the said price.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6209 minor / 1.6238 minor / 1.6260 moderate
Support: 1.6178 minor / 1.6144 moderate / 1.6115 moderate

Cable saw a huge surge Thursday with GBPUSD closing at its highs pushing past the prior range play tops while daily indicators now have stochastic crawling overbought and macd’s above zero also heading up. This following a bounceoffthedaily EMA lines. Note this is a follow through to last weeks descending wedge breakout while candlesticks show a bullish continuation matt hold pattern. From the lower timeframes we are keeping a bullish bias with 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd has crossed up. Hourly charts has stochastic oscillating in overbought levels while macd is also pushing higher. Overall we have a bullish bias in Cable with 1.6260 as the key price target. Look for a bounce off 1.6144 asour entry point though alternatively we may use a break of the days highs for a bullish entry point. It appears that we may be forming a triple top.

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November 21st, 2013 @ 5:28 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3445 moderate / 1.3477 minor / 1.3496 moderate
Support: 1.3411 moderate / 1.3390 minor / 1.3356 moderate

Euro saw a sharp sell-off Wednesday following reports that the ECB is considering negative interest rates, we find ourselves with a daily candlestick coming off 50 Fib retracement level for the drop from October 25 while prices pushed all the way through the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic heading lower while macd’s lines are under zero though they have yet to see a bear cross. Intraday we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd’s poised to push below the zeroline though we have a “dragon fly doji” from the Wellington session. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic looking for a bear cross while macd’s are flat below zero. With the changing view from the ECB we prefer looking focusing on the sellside, ideally after a pull back to 1.3477 but we will considering selling off 1.3445 if we remain just under the price by the open of European markets. Alternative entry will be a break of the 1.3412 area.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1253.85 moderate / 1261.67 minor / 1271.69 minor
Support: 1240.71 minor / 1231.27 moderate / 1224.46 minor

Gold saw a sharp sell-off in afternoon US trade, as the Fed Minutes indicate serious talk of a taper happening sooner rather than later. At the close we were just above the days lows with the break of 1251.60 from October reinforcing the idea of lower highs and lows. Among indicators we have a confluence of bears in the daily charts with stochastic in oversold areas and macd’s heading lower still. In the lower time frames we have stochastic in oversold levels from the 4H picture while in the hourly’s we are oscillating around 20. The macd indicators is bearish and below the zeroline for both hourly and 4H charts. We continue to favor the sell-side of XAUUSD though preference is for us to come-off a pullback rather than just jumping short. Look for bearish price action from just under the 1253.85 level, today’s central pivot. Note we prefer taking action only at the open of European morning trade.

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November 20th, 2013 @ 1:26 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3567 minor / 1.3600 minor / 1.3647 moderate
Support: 1.3524 moderate / 1.3492 moderate / 1.3463 minor

At the close we saw Euro well past the daily EMA lines with EURUSD getting an early boost in Pre-Tokyo trade from the dovish statements of Chairman Bernanke. In daily indicators we have stochastic overbought and macd’s with a new bullish crossover. With the break of the Mondays highs we now view the high wave candle then as a consolidation of previous gains. In intraday charts we have macd’s heading up and stochastic looking to push into overbought levels for the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with macd’s heading up and stochastic coming off slowly easing lower. Given the penchant to pullback following an EMA breakout our preference will be for a buy on dips back to the EMA longs though targets now call for a test of the 1.3647 region.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6135 moderate / 1.6165 minor / 1.6206 minor
Support: 1.6093 moderate / 1.6065 moderate / 1.6045 moderate

Tuesday gave us a long tail and a small body in Cable though prices appear to be whipsawing just above the daily EMA lines. Note this consolidation comes after a bullisgh breakout last week from a daily descending wedge. Among indicators we have daily stochastic staying in overbought levels while macd’s have also crossed up though still around the still just above the zero threshold. From the 4H picture we have a series of spinning tops among the candlesticks with the indecision underscored buy a stochastic having trouble pushing overbought and macd’s above zero though staying flat below the signal line. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is topping off. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a buy on dips to the EMA line at 1.6065 is a potential trade. Looking for the open of Europe to give us a bounce off 1.6093 or a break of 1.6135.

EURJPY
Resistance: 135.96 moderate / 136.38 minor / 137.00 minor
Support: 135.46 moderate / 135.00 minor / 134.67 minor

EURJPY saw a bullish breakout pushing past the 135.46 price point to close just under Tuesday highs of 135.70. Daily indicators has stochastic crawling in overbought areas with macd’s rising. Given the nature of our break out a push past level not seen since 2009 we need to show an ability to stay above 135.46. Look for consolidation just above the breakout point. Intraday we have a new bullish cross in 4H macd while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic seeing a bearish divergence and macd’s flat above the signal line. Consider longs off 135.46 in European morning trade or at a push past 135.93 then.

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