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Articles by Mark De La Paz

August 30th, 2013 @ 1:52 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8968 moderate / 0.9000 moderate / 0.9031 moderate
Support: 0.8935 minor / 0.8892 moderate / 0.8849 moderate

Aussy continues to indecisive trading with Thursday getting a spinning for a daily candle as ranges continue to tighten. From indicators we also see mixed signals as stochastic show a bullish divergence while macd is heading lower. Note we have Private Sector Credit coming out at 0130GMT with consensus forecast at 0.4%. We will look at the numbers as a catalyst for getting out of the indecisive trading, a read well below consensus should open up the swing lows at 0.8849. Strong figures will be an excuse for mean reversion to the daily EMA lines. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of buys from multiple time frames with hourly stochastic pushing for overbought levels and he 4H coming off oversold areas. Evan as macd see anew bullish crossover in hourly charts and continue to head up in the 4H picture.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5511 moderate / 1.5547 moderate / 1.5592 moderate
Support: 1.5486 moderate / 1.5448 minor / 1.5428 moderate

Given the broadly firmer dollar Cable was unable to get a follow through rally to Wednesday’s hammer and long tail from the 55DEMA lines. Stil we have a fractal pattern now in the daily charts reinforcing the idea of a bullish reversal. Daily indicators however are still mixed with stochastic heading up and macd dropping for the zero line. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with stochastic seeing a new bullish crossover and macd heading up though barely above its signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic seeing a new bullish cross and macd heading up for the zero line. At the moment we retain a bullish bias for Cable though getting the markets to rally could be difficult given the geopolitical risks we face now. Although we expect Cable to fare better than most majors should US air strikes in Syria happen. Look for a close above 1.5511 as a bullish entry.

USDJPY
Resistance: 98.47 moderate / 98.74 moderate / 99.15 moderate
Support: 98.09 moderate / 97.84 minor / 97.66 moderate

USDJPY rallied past the daily EMA’s Thursday on the back of a follow through for equity indices though we now have the bearish resistance line from July 7 on top of prices. Indicator wise we have a confluence of buys with stochastic heading up and macd looking to push through the zero line. From the 4H level we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels while macd is heading up. Hourly charts see a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and and macd dropping. ¬†Note price charts show a double top in the daily picture. At the moment we are looking for a close under the daily pivot at 98.09 break of which should see us head back under the daily EMA lines.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3265 moderate / 1.3311 moderate / 1.3343 minor
Support: 1.3230 minor / 1.3205 moderate /1.3164 minor

Thursday saw a follow through sell-off in EURUSD as we pushed through he daily EMA lines to close under the 55D EMA after starting above the 21D EMA. We have formed a daily level double top out of the August price action. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing into oversold territory while macd is opening lower some more heading for the zero line. In the lower time frames we candlesticks suggesting lost momentum with a series of spinning top since New York trade. Indicators show stochastic in the 4H picture looking to come-off over sold levels while macd remains bearish. Hourly charts are similarly mixed with stochastic poised to move oversold and macd heading up. For now there is little sense of urgency through triggering the daily double top is an attractive proposition as we are set to close the week with a bearish engulfing and the month with a shooting star. Look for shorts on a break of 1.3205 pattern trigger theoretical target is at 1.2959.

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August 29th, 2013 @ 2:12 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 130.51 moderate / 130.71 minor / 131.03 moderate
Support: 130.19 moderate / 129.84 moderate / 129.62 minor

Wednesday turn-out to be consolidation day after Tuesday’s big rout with the days range failing to even see the halfway mark of the real body for the previous black candle. Daily indicators see a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing further into oversold areas while macd has a new bear cross and prices for the moment attempt to get back under the EMA lines once more. Note we are forming a double top that spans July and August, the trigger at 127.96. From the lower time-frames we have mixed signals as 4H macd see a new bullish crossover while stochastic is looking to crosslower and we have price action looking for a break of our NY range play. Hourly charts has stochastic heading lower while macd has flattened out just around the zero line with the signal line beneath it. Look foraclose below the daily pivot at 130.19 to start off our follow through drop.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3345 moderate / 1.3363 minor / 1.3386 moderate
Support: 1.3293 moderate / 1.3252 minor / 1.3231 moderate

Euro managed to close just above the 21D EMA Wednesday following a sharp sell-off that saw lows below the said area. Indicators see a confluence of bears from he big picture as stochastic show a new bear cross and divergence while macd’s begin to open lower after staying flat above the zero-line the past two weeks. In intraday charts we are seeing mostly mixed signals with a new bullish cross in stochastic from the 4H picture while macd has pushed under the zero-line. Hourly charts has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is below zero and flat above the signal line. Note that our daily close is below the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off for the year, while the weekly candle is forming a bearish engulfing. This suggest our break of 1.3417 last week maybe false and we risk follow through weakness.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5543 minor / 1.5576 moderate / 1.5597 moderate
Support: 1.5502 moderate / 1.5480 minor / 1.5451 moderate

Cable has a hundred pip for the Wednesday candle more than the daily average as we get a hammer for a candlestick pattern with lows sticking down to the 55D EMA and the close above the 21D EMA. Among indicators we continue to see mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Note we have opened the day above the daily pivot at 1.5502. From the 4H picture we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought while macd sees a new bullish cross. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic failing to push overbought and macd just under zero looking to move up. We have little sense of urgency but given the daily picture bias is for further gains. Consider buys on a dip to the daily pivot at 1.5502 or on a push above 1.5543.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8978 moderate / 0.9000 psychological / 0.9040 moderate
Support: 0.8935 moderate / 0.8901 moderate / 0.8849 moderate

In the end we have a high wave candle for Aussy a qualifiable ‘dragon fly doji’ with a long tail sticking out below the 0.8935 support area. Daily indicators remain bearish with stochastic looking for apush down through the oversold threshold while macd is below zero and heading lower. Price action however suggests a possible turnaround with the calendar providing enough catalyst New Home Sales and Private Capital Expenditure. In the lower time frames we have bullish continuation patterns in the making in 4H charts while macd has a new crossover for the upside and stochastic is poised to go overbought. hourly charts for their part is looking for a bullish breakout of its congestion from NY trade. With the immediate risk calling for buys we look forward to Australian data providing an incentive for bulls to jump in and see mean reversion. Weakness in Aussy figures will have us looking for a close under 0.8935, the daily pivot, before shorting.

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August 28th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 97.36 moderate / 97.70 minor / 97.91 moderate
Support: 96.85 moderate / 96.34 moderate / 96.12 minor

Tuesday saw USDJPY push back under the daily EMA lines following another sell-off in US equities this time with European equity indices also triggering bearish reversal patterns in the daily charts. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push into oversold levels while macd is also in the process of crossing lower beneath the zeroline. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic oversold and macds dropping while hourly charts has a confluence of buys. Note we see a bullish engulfing pattern in the making for both hourly and 4H candlesticks. At the moment we appear to be seeing a technical correction as prices bounce off our moderate support while the Nikkei is also bouncing after the earlier sell-off in its futures. Immediate risk appears to be for a bounce in USDJPY through we will look for signs of distribution, a bear signal, from 97.36 and 97.91.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.32 moderate / 130.71 moderate / 131.04 moderate
Support: 129.66 moderate / 129.29 minor / 129.06 moderate

EURJPY is among the biggest loser in yesterdays trade with hardly a wick or tail as we saw a follow through to the bearish engulfing pattern Monday. From indicators we have prices crashing through the daily EMA lines while stochastic is poised to push oversold and macd’s cross lower. Intraday we are seeing signs of a pullback as hourly stochastic and macds see new bullish cross-overs with stochastic just coming off oversold levels and a bullish divergence forming. In the 4H picture we have stochastic crawling oversold while macd has also just pushed under the zeroline. Candlestick charts are also showing bullish engulfing candles. Immediate risk is for a technical correction though our preference is to look for shorts off 130.32 and 130.99.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5555 moderate / 1.5597 moderate / 1.5638 minor
Support: 1.5524 moderate / 1.5486 moderate / 1.5465 minor

Cable saw a sharp sell-off and a big bounce in Tuesday trade to close with along tail sticking out below the 21D EMA and a moderately sized bearish real body. Among indicators we have stochastic coming-off oversold levels while macd is also heading lower. From the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic poised to push oversold in the hourly picture while macd is bullish looking to push up above the zeroline. This as 4H charts has stochastic heading up and macd with a new bear cross. Given the mixed signals we prefer doing a straddle with buys stops above 1.5555 and sell stops under 1.5524.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8993 moderate / 0.9040 moderate / 0.9063 moderate
Support: 0.8941 minor / 0.8909 moderate / 0.8849 moderate

Aussy has a bearish open bozu in the daily candlesticks as we see a follow through to the rejection from daily EMA lines and the double top break-outpoint of mid August. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s easing further below the zero line. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping in 4H charts. From the hourly picture we have more indecision as macd se new bearish crosses while stochastic is poised to cross higher. Given these we prefer remaining sidelined though shorts may be taken from under 0.8993 or on a push below 0.8941. Daily candlesticks suggests we look for a drop to the previous swing lows at 0.8941.

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August 27th, 2013 @ 1:46 am by Mark De La Paz

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USDJPY
Resistance: 98.43 moderate / 98.68 moderate / 98.84 minor
Support: 98.05 moderate / 97.83 moderate / 97.48 minor

Following reports of the US likely hitting its deficit limit by October, USDJPY saw a sell-off after an earlier wipsawish trade as global equities sold-of for good. We now have prices inside the daily EMA lines while stochastic has come-off overbought levels and the macd’s have slipped back under the zero line though waiting for a bear cross. Note his is a follow through to our rejection from the bearish trend line off July 7 highs. Intraday we are seeing a confluence of bears the 4H stochastic pushing into oversold areas while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears as well with stochastic in oversold areas and macds heading lower. Given the sell-off in equities we prefer looking for shorts on a close under 98.03 or coming off the daily pivot at 9.43.

GBPJPY
Resistance: 153.37 moderate / 153.73 moderate / 154.01 minor
Support: 152.76 moderate / 152.12 moderate / 151.74 minor

After a roller coaster session we ended down with a bearish Sen candle as Yen pairs sold-off across the board late in US trading. Among indicators we have a bearish divergence from daily stochastic while macd is topping off. Note we have had an ongoing mean reversion from Friday highs with its ‘dark cloud cover’. In 4H charts we have stochastic looking to push back into oversold territory while macd is also heading lower, looking to drop below the zero line. Hourly charts has stochastic in oversold areas while macd also has a new bear cross. Immediate risk calls for a bear market though we prefer looking for a rejection from 153.37 the daily pivot.

EURJPY
Resistances: 131.52 minor / 131.95 moderate / 132.42 moderate
Support: 131.05 moderate / 130.71 moderate / 130.27 minor

Along with the rest of the Yen pairs EURJPY saw a sell-off as US equities tanked late in the trading day on US deficit concerns. Given the prior gap between prices and the daily EMA lines we may now be seeing a mean reversion. Indicators has daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is also topping off. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also heading lower from the 4H picture, this as hourly charts has stochastic beginning to crawl oversold areas while macd is also under the zero line heading down. We prefer looking for shorts on a close under the 131.05 support area. Alternatively a sell-off in Asian equities and European indices can also be used as a trigger for jumping short.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8984 moderate / 0.9006 minor / 0.9038 moderate
Support: 0.8960 minor / 0.8931 minor / 0.8884 moderate

After a brief spike to the daily EMA lines we have Aussy ending with along wick in the daily charts reinforcing the notion of a resumption of the bear market. Note we have prices under the daily EMA’s while indicators for now show mixed signals as stochastic come’s off oversold levels while macd is dropping. In 4H charts we have stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is also in the process of seeing a bear cross while under the zeroline. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oversold and macd’s also dropping. Given the daily candles we prefer looking for a bear market consider shorts from just under the 8984 region, S1 in daily pivots.

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August 26th, 2013 @ 1:43 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5580 moderate / 15622 moderate / 1.5653 minor
Support: 1.5538 moderate / 1.5518 minor / 1.5490 minor

Friday again saw a sharp whipsaw in Cable to end with a high wave spinning top with the push to both extremes turning out brief. Among indicators we still have a bearish daily macd while stochastic remains under the oversold threshold though currently looking poised to take a peek above 20. From the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas with a minor bullish divergence, this as macd is flat below the zero and the signal lines. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic and macd seeing new bullish crosses. Immediate risk calls for a bounce though with prices just under the pivot at 1.5580 it would be better to look for a close on an hourly basis now during the open of Asian markets or look to surge higher at he open of Europe. Note we have a holiday in the UK.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9038 minor / 0.9059 moderate / 0.9078 minor
Support: 0.8980(84) moderate / 0.8963 minor / 0.8931 minor

After selling-off from the early part of the week we have Aussy pulling back Thursday/Friday to the 38.2 Fib retracement level and ending up with a high wave candle for the last trading day, suggesting we look for a resumption of our bear market. From indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold areas while daily macd is bearish. In the 4H level we are slowly getting lower highs and lower lows from the candles though overall price acton is mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd pointing up. Hourly charts has stochastic pushing for oversold levels along with a new bearish crossover from macd. For now look for a close below the daily pivot, at 0.9015 to get the bears going.

USDJPY
Resistance: 98.83 moderate / 99.15 moderate / 99.53 minor
Support: 98.(35)40 moderate / 98.12 minor / 97.83 moderate

In the end we have a high wave spinning top in USDJPY for Friday with market spending much of it in consolidation following the rally from midweek. Among indicators we have just sen daily macd push up through the zero line though stochastic has also come-off overbought levels. Note prices are just above the daily EMA’s with markets triggering an inverted head and shoulder Thursday. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing up while macd’s also sea a bear cross. hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears though price action has been indecisive. We have macd’s poised to push under the zeroline and stochastic with a new bear cross. We prefer looking for a pullback to the daily EMA’s and buying off a bounce from the 55D EMA our objective to push through a bearish trend line from July 7.

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August 23rd, 2013 @ 1:36 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5593 moderate / 1.5625 moderate / 1.5653 moderate
Support: 1.5563 moderate / 1.5534 moderate / 1.5500 psychological

Thursday saw Cable breaking lower pushing through the weeks congestion lows and closing low enough thathe breakout remain valid triggering a mean reversion play. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also seeing a new bear cross. From the lower time frames we are seeing indecision signals as 4H stochastic comes off oversold areas while macd has just pushed under the zero-line. Hourly charts in-turn has a new bear cross in stochastic while macd is heading up for the zeroline. Given the bearish breakout and daily signals we prefer focusing on getting a bear market going. Consider shorts coming off the resistances at 1.5526 or on a close below 1.5563 our objective to finish mean reversion getting to the 21DEMA at 1.5500.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.06 moderate / 99.27 moderate / 99.56 minor
Support: 98.77 minor / 98.51 moderate / 98.10 minor

At the close we have USDJPY around its highs as we triggered a daily scale inverted head and shoulder and saw an equity market rebound. From indicators we have stochastic entering overbought levels while macd is also heading up looking to push through the zero line. Intraday we have stochastic crawling in overbought areas while macd is also heading up in he 4H picture. We also find stochastic oscillating around 80 at the hourly level with a new bullish crossover from macd. Note while we have a strong start from Asian equities the risk for today will be on the QE taper which could quickly change markets tone. We will be seeing the start of the Jackson hole summit venue for the announce of previous QE actions. Any hint or detail of slowing down or shutting the printing press could quickly see a stock market sell-off and increase USDJPY volatily.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9046 moderate / 0.9081 moderate / 0.9098 minor
Support: 0.8996 moderate / 0.8942(50) moderate / 0.8906 minor

Aussy saw a bounce Thursday as Chinese manufacturing figure saw a recovery the HSBC Flash Manufacturing Index bouncing to 50.1 against consensus expectation of another contraction at 48.3. Daily indicators has a new bear cross in macd while stochastic is in oversold areas we see yesterdays knee-jerk response to data as allowing bears to pair down their shorts from earlier in he week. From the 4H picture we have a mixed view with stochastic crossing lower while macd’s is seeing a new bullish cross this as candlesticks are indecisive. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with both stochastic and macd seeing new bearish crossovers. At the moment we also see a double top in the hourly picture. Considering the scenario of reduce QE from he US risk going forward fill before a bear, the preferred course of action shorting on a close below the 0.8996 pivot. Alternative entry will be coming off 0.9046, the 38.2 Fib retracement level. for the weeks drop.

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August 22nd, 2013 @ 1:22 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5648 moderate / 1.5683 moderate / 1.5716 minor
Support: 1.5603 moderate / 1.575 moderate / 1.5534 minor

Cable charts has us at the weeks congestion floor as attempts to push for the swing highs at 1.5749 were abandoned with the FOMC minutes signaling the Fed was on track for tapering off. Indicators show stochastic coming off overbought areas and macds at risk of a bar cross. Given the sharp turnaround yesterday mean reversion will be a developing theme with our large gap from the daily EMA lines. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic just pushing oversold as macd’s drop. Hourly charts are equally bearish with stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also dropping. Immediate risk calls for a bearish breakout a close under 1.5601 signalling that we have mean reversion to the daily EMA’s the 21D EMA at 1.5502, just around psychological levels.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3359 moderate / 1.3385 minor / 1.3416 moderate
Support: 1.3308 moderate / 1.3279 minor / 1.3238 moderate

EURUSD has a ‘dark cloud cover’ in daily charts suggesting our run for highs may be over with a false breakout of the May highs at 1.3416. Daily indicators has macd just under the signal line while stochastic is heading lower having failed to even see overbought levels. note we have prices just above the daily EMA lines though previous pullbacks saw us crashing through. From intraday charts we are seeing sell signals the 4H picture showing stochastic with a new push to oversold levels and macd poised to go under the zero-line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also dropping. For now we are looking for follow through weakness preferring a sell on rallies to the 1.3359(67)resistance area. Note the key thing going forward will be the European equity open should they signal a global rout we would call the weeks highs as a medium term top.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8985(96) moderate / 0.9024 minor / 0.9057 moderate
Support: 0.8935(40) moderate / 0.8906 minor / 0.8865 minor

Wednesday saw AUDUSD with a follow through to its double top breakout in the daily charts with a broadly firmer dollar pushing things along. Among indicators we have the daily stochasticjust pushing oversold while macd has also crossed lower remaining below the zeroline. This signals a resumption of our bear market the eventual objective taking out swing lows at 0.8847. In the lower timeframes we are seeing a confluence of bears in hourly and 4-hour indicators we have stochastic oversold in both time-frames while macd is also below zero and dropping for both. Going forward our focus will be on getting further weakness as a slowdown in Australia and in China also puts the currency under pressure. We have the recipe needed for Aussy to ease down to the historical norms over the next few weeks.

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August 20th, 2013 @ 1:27 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9149 moderate / 0.9180 minor / 0.9219 moderate
Support: 0.9107 minor / 0.9058(66) moderate / 0.9024 minor

After testing the 55D EMA we have Aussy selling off monday to close under the daily EMA linesand form a double top from the daily charts. Daily indicators now has a bearish divergence in stochastic to complement the reversal pattern though macd is still above zero and heading up. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears from 4H charts with stochastic in oversold levels while macd is heading down though price charts show indecision. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s flat below the signal and stochastic looking to cross lower. Ahead we have the release of the latest RBA policy meeting minutes, a willingness by the RBA to lower rates further in the coming months or concern over the situation in China would likely be a catalyst for us to trigger the patter dropping under 0.9057.

XAUUSD
Resistance: 1371.43 moderate / 1378.16 minor / 1384.49 minor
Support: 1363.20 moderate / 1358.28 moderate / 1347.09 moderate

Combining the brief Sunday trade with the rest of the Monday candle we have a ‘dark cloud cover’ in daily charts coming off the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from May, for a false break from the prior week. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also topping out. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming-off over sold levels and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bullish cross and macd’s flat below the signal beneath the zeroline. At the moment we appear to be at a possible near term top for Gold charts, consider shorts on a break of 1363.20 preferably coming off 1370.44.

EURJPY
Resistance: 130.44 moderate / 130.71 moderate / 131.05 moderate
Support: 129.98 moderate / 129.65 moderate / 129.15 minor

Earlier attempts to rally up in EURJPY saw a rejection in New York trade as stock markets eased off. Note we are continuing our sell-off in US equity indices and seeing reversal patterns pop-up in daily candlestick for European equity indices. Daily indicators remain mixed with stochastic continuing its bear signal while macd is looking to push above the zeroline, we have along wick from the daily charts as a result of the turnaround. In the lower time-frames we have sell signals from he 4h picture stochastic looking to pushover sold and macd with a new bear cross. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd flat below the signal. For now we prefer a sell on rallies with shorts off 130.71 or on a push below the daily EMA lines.

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