Articles by Mark De La Paz

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3258 moderate / 1.3284 moderate / 1.3340 minor
Support: 1.3206 moderate / 1.3170(86) strong / 1.3143 minor

Tuesday saw a bullish breakout in Euro finally pushing past and closing above a key resistance at 1.3170 as markets saw risk appetite in the US session while S&P also raised Greek credit ratings by six notches. Daily indicators for their part has stochastic overbought while macd is also pushing up. Note weekly charts show a cup and handle pattern has been triggered. Intraday candlesticks look indecisive with momentum typically waning at the close of New York, indicators however remain bullish. In 4H charts we have stochastic overbought and macd rising while hourly charts has macd’s flat above the signal and stochastic in the process of crossing up. Consider long coming off the daily pivot at 1.3206 or on a close above R1 at 1.3258.

USDJPY
Resistance: 1.3258 moderate / 1.3284 moderate / 1.3340 minor
Support: 1.3206 moderate / 1.3170(86) strong / 1.3143 minor

Tuesday saw a bullish breakout in Euro finally pushing past and closing above a key resistance at 1.3170 as markets saw risk appetite in the US session while S&P also raised Greek credit ratings by six notches. Daily indicators for their part has stochastic overbought while macd is also pushing up. Note weekly charts show a cup and handle pattern has been triggered. Intraday candlesticks look indecisive with momentum typically waning at the close of New York, indicators however remain bullish. In 4H charts we have stochastic overbought and macd rising while hourly charts has macd’s flat above the signal and stochastic in the process of crossing up. Consider long coming off the daily pivot at 1.3206 or on a close above R1 at 1.3258.

EURJPY
Resistance: 111.95(10) moderate / 112.43 minor / 113.25 minor
Support: 111.43 strong / 111.18 moderate / 110.75 minor

As with the other Yen pairs EURJPY rallied for its part pushing past a key resistance level 111.43 the breakout point for a weekly scale double bottom. Among indicators we currently have a confluence of buys with daily stochastic overbought and macd rising. Note our push through Mondays highs eliminates mean reversion pressures. In the lower time frames we have an overbought stochastic and rising macd though the 4H candle appears to be developing a doji. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish divergence and macd rising. Given the intraday picture we prefer looking for base building above 111.43 before suggesting we go long again.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3170(86) strong / 1.3194 minor / 1.3211 minor
Support: 1.3143 minor / 1.3101(08) moderate / 1.3067 minor

After gapping up at the open of Wellington trade we have Euro closing the small gap ending the day with a qualified ‘meeting line’ to suggest a possible bearish reversal. Daily indicators show stochastic overbought while macd is rising. Note we have a huge gap between prices and the EMA lines suggesting mean reversion is a risk. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing higher while macd is in the process of crossing down even as candlesticks are indecisive. Hourly charts are similarly with stochastic heading up and macd bearish. Given the mixed view and tight ranges we prefer staying sidelined though a close above 1.3086 in hourly charts should open Euro to a rally while a close under 1.3143 would likely see us pulling back to at-least 1.3101(08).

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6216 moderate / 1.6250 minor / 1.6285 minor
Support: 1.6192 minor / 1.6172 strong / 1.6153 minor

Cable saw a bullish gap at the open of the week only to see prices cover before recouping for new highs. Note we did open the week above a strong resistance from Friday 1.6172. From indicators we have continue to have a bullish view as the bounce in Europe kept stochastic overbought while macd is rising. From the 4H picture we are currently seeing indecisive candlesticks this despite a series of higher highs and higher lows. The stochastic indicators has repeatedly tried and failed to push overbought while the 4H macd continue to rally. Hourly charts for their part are seeing mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s dropping. Look for buys on a push above 1.6216 or on dips to 1.6172.

USDJPY
Resistance: 83.91 minor / 84.16(29) strong / 84.43 minor
Support: 83.65 moderate / 83.30 moderate / 83.10 minor

As expected we saw a bullish gap over the weekend following the Japanese elections and the LDP victory. Following the gapping open though we have been pulling back though not quite covering the whole jump. For a while in Wellington trade yesterday prices were above the weekly scale double bottom breakout point. Among indicators we have daily stochastic overbought while macd’s are heading up. Intraday we are seeing a mixed signal as yesterdays pullback dragged macd’s into an eventual bearish cross from the 4H charts while stochastic has just crossed up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s trying to cross higher while stochastic is coming off overbought levels. Overall bias is still bullish looking to trigger the weekly double bottom. For now though we prefer a buy on dips to 83.29 though a close above yesterdays highs may also be seen as a bullish entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3079 minor / 1.3100 moderate / 1.3126 moderate
Support: 1.3041 minor / 1.3014 moderate / 1.2994 minor

In the end we saw Euro with modest ranges and a spinning top for Thursday this as we approach the previous weeks highs at 1.3126 to suggest a loss of momentum even as the gap with the EMA lines widen. Daily indicators for their part continue to look bullish as stochastic is overbought and macd is rising. In the lower time frames we already have a bearish divergence for the 4H stochastic while macd is topping off. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Look for shorts from our resistances ideally off the immediate minor resistance in line with the daily candles. A sell-off from here should see the start of a mean reversion play.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8435 minor / 0.8468 strong / 0.8492 minor
Support: 0.8415 moderate / 0.8398 minor / 0.8376 minor

Kiwi has had a rally the past two weeks taking out string resistances at 0.8355 rallying to the next key level at 0.8468, yesterdays high’s were at 0.84597. At the close we have a ‘shooting star’ for Thursdays candle that in combination with the strong immediate resistance and price difference with the EMA lines opens the possibility of mean reversion. In intraday charts I have sell signals from both 4H and hourly levels with macd’s dropping and stochastic pointing to 20, the 4H stochastic just poised to go oversold. Look for a close under 0.8415 in the hourly charts to trigger a bear market, daily mean reversion play.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0532 minor / 1.0561 minor / 1.0583 minor
Support: 1.0507 moderate / 1.0484 minor / 1.0468 moderate

Following Wednesday’s long wick we have had Aussy easing off though price action has been whipsawish. Daily charts at the moment continue to see price action looking bearish with indicators showing a bear cross in stochastic and the macd heading up. Intraday we have a confluence of bear with stochastic oversold and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of bears. Given Chinese numbers we prefer remaining sidelined though a sub 50 read in HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI could be an excuse for pushing under 1.0507 to pullback to 1.0468 the 21D EMA. Strong reads, i.e., above 55 for their part could put an end to the current mean reversion.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6113 minor / 1.6147 minor / 1.6172 strong
Support: 1.6086 moderate / 1.6061 minor / 1.6043 minor

Thursday saw a modest confirmation of our rejection from the strong resistance at 1.6172 the previous day with a black body engulfing the smaller white real body paving the way for mean reversion. Daily indicators has stochastic crossing lower while the macd line is still pointing up. Moving intraday we have a confluence of bears in 4H and hourly charts with stochastic in both heading lower even as macd’s are just crossing down in the 4H picture though they have been bearish in hourly charts. Note we still have a higher high in the daily picture, we may be looking for our next higher low out of the daily EMA lines at this point. Immediate risk is for a bear market though the sell side should be limited around 1.6054 the 21D EMA and a possible buy area.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0563 minor / 1.0583 minor / 1.0624 strong
Support: 1.0538 minor / 1.0519 moderate / 1.0505 minor

In the end we saw a long wick in Wednesday’s candlestick to suggest that our push through 1.0519 is at risk with 1.0583 possibly making for a lower high to 10624. Given where the daily EMA lines are, mean reversion is a growing risk. Indicators has stochastic at risk of crossing lower while macd is pushing up. From the 4H picture we have a mixed view as stochastic heads down while macd is just beginning to top off. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oversold while macd is heading lower. Immediate risk calls for a pullback though with a moderate support at 1.0519 we would look for base building around the said price before possibly jumping long from the area.

EURJPY
Resistance: 109.04 minor / 109.39 moderate / 110.00 moderate
Support: 108.67 strong / 108.32 moderate / 107.96 moderate

At the close we have EURJPY barely above the key resistance at 108.67 though this after a strong rally that saw daily ranges almost doubled by the surged. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s just crossing higher. Note the move has taken us past the 50 Fib retarcement level of the sell-off from April of 2011. Intraday we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with stochastic overbought and macd’s rising. Hourly charts also has a bullish macd with stochastic crossing higher. With the extent of yesterdays gains EURJPY will likely stay bullish though we prefer seeing some base building first. A push past 109.03 may already be seen as a bullish entry.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6151 minor / 1.6172 strong / 1.6205 moderate
Support: 1.6124 moderate / 1.6107 minor / 1.6086 moderate

After a sharp rally on the FOMC release Cable quickly pulled back in the subsequent periods to close the day with a long wick suggesting a rejection from the 1.6172 region. Given the gap between prices and the daily EMA lines we may be facing mean reversion risk, 21D EMA for now is at 1.6050. Indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while the macd line is also rising. In the lower time frames we have a mixed set of signal for 4H charts stochastic heading lower and macd’s pointing up. Hourly stochastic is oversold while macd has crossed lower. Immediate risk calls for a break of 1.6124 with the move likely to pave the way for mean reversion. Build a base in the Asian trade and we may be able to buy Cable off 1.6124 by the open of European markets.

USDJPY
Resistance: 83.50 moderate / 83.79 minor / 84.16 strong
Support: 83.29 moderate / 83.09 minor / 82.84 strong

We have USDJPY seeing an early move for a follow through rally after pushing past a strong resistance at 82.85 in New York trade courtesy of the FOMC. Daily indicators now have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd just crossing up. In 4H charts we are overbought with a bullish macd though hourly indicators has stochastic consolidating under 80 while macd is bullish. Given yesterdays and the upcoming Japanese elections we prefer looking for a rally towards 84.16 the breakout point of a year and a half long double bottom in weekly charts. Consider a buy on dips to 83.29, 8.09, ideally 82.84 region.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6124 moderate / 1.6172 moderate / 1.6205 moderate
Support: 1.6107 minor / 1.6086 moderate / 1.6061 minor

Along with the rest of the majors we also saw GBPUSD with a follow through rally yesterday with prices closing just under 1.6124 a moderate resistance level. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing overbought and macd’s heading up. From the 4H picture we have stochastic just pushing overbought while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s flat and stochastic poised to cross higher. Note we have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the daily picture since November, an hourly close above 1.6124 should open the way for a rally to 1.6172.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3019 moderate / 1.3046 minor / 1.3085 minor
Support: 1.3000 minor / 1.2972 moderate / 1.2947 moderate

Euro Tuesday saw a strong rally on its bounce off the daily EMA lines with the daily candlestick almost a marubozu. Among indicators we have a flat macd while stochastic is heading up. In intraday charts we appear to be seeing mixed signals with stochastic overbought from the 4H picture while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd has just crossed lower. Look for a close above 1.3019 to trigger the next up leg, the projected high is at 1.3075. Alternative entry will be for a bounce off 1.2972 for a more modest objective, 1.3046.

EURJPY
Resistance: 107.45 minor / 107.72 minor / 107.96 moderate
Support: 107.21 minor / 106.97 moderate / 106.70 minor

EURJPY had a strong day Tuesday with the ‘dragong fly doji’ from monday followed by a strong push up, almost a bullish marubozu. Daily indicators however continue to look mixed with stochastic pushing up and macd’s still heading lower. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts with stochastic staying overbought and macd’s pushing higher, price charts themselves suggests a loss of momentum. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic flat under 80 while macd remain bullish. Look for a close above 107.45 as an excuse to see a rally. Alternatively we can use a buy on dips to 106.97.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0541 minor / 1.0563 minor / 1.0589 minor
Support: 1.0519 moderate / 1.0505 minor / 1.0491 minor

Aussy has finally seen a close above the 1.0519 region with the bounce off EMA lines yesterday, paving the way for a run to the swing highs at 1.0624. Daily indicators for their part has just seen stochastic push into overbought areas while macd is heading up. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought in both 4H and hourly levels while macd is rising. Given the intraday picture and bullish breakout we prefer looking for a pull-back to the 1.0519 region before going long with stops under the 1.0505 price point.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0480 minor / 1.0496 minor / 1.0519 moderate
Support: 1.0459 minor / 1.0440 moderate / 1.0414 minor

Monday turned out to be a high wave spinning top as once more attempts at taking out 1.0519 fails. Among indicators we have stochastic crossing lower while macd is topping off. Note we have an interesting bullish trend in the daily EMA lines. From the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of bears with hourly stochastic oversold and the 4H version heading lower. The macd for both time frames are seeing new bearish crosses. With the repeated failure to push up above 1.0519 we are now looking for a rejection with the break of 1.0480 suggesting we focus on the sell-side for a while possibly ease off to the strong support at 1.0331.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6086 moderate / 1.6124 moderate / 1.6174 moderate
Support: 1.6061 minor / 1.6043 minor / 1.6000(02) moderate

Following its bounce from the daily EMA lines Friday we have Cable currently pushing up continuing a pattern of highwer lows since mid November looking for a stab at a higher high once more, above the 61.8 Fib retracement from the September 21 sell-off, 1.6124. Daily indicators has stochastic crossing higher while the macd has been bullish since mid November. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals as stochastic crosses lower while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears at this point. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a close above 1.6086 may be seen as a possible bullish entry for a rush to 1.6124 the key resistance area.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2947 moderate / 1.2972 moderate / 1.3001 minor
Support: 1.2919 minor / 1.2890 minor / 1.2876 moderate

After gapping lower at the open Euro managed to close the bearish gap with a bullish daily candle almost pushing through the 21D EMA line. Among indicators we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold areas while macd is heading lower, the price charts themselves are inconclusive. At this point we are trying to clear the 21D EMA though we face a moderate resistance at 1.2947. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys though price action fails to confirm the idea of bullish momentum even as stochastic is overbought and macd just crossed up. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is rising. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though should prices remain under 1.2947 by the European open we would consider taking the sell-side then.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.83339 minor / 0.8354 strong / 0.8389 minor
Support: 0.8319 minor / 0.8307 minor / 0.8285 minor

Kiwi saw back-to-back gains in the previous week leaving behind its daily EMA lines while indicators see an overbought stochastic and bullish macd. Interestingly we have found smaller daily ranges of late suggesting momentum may be turning. Note a bear market now would likely lead to mean reversion once more. In intraday charts I have a confluence of bears in the making with macd’s just crossing lower while stochastic risks coming off overbought levels. Hourly charts for their part has a flat macd while stochastic is coming off overbought areas. With a strong resistance ahead of us, the preferred course of action is to look for a rejection off 0.8354.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6043 minor / 1.6061 minot / 1.6086 moderate
Support: 1.6021 moderate / 1.6006 moderate / 1.5988 minor

In the end Friday’s sell-off in Cable saw a bounce ahead of the weekly close for a hammer in the daily charts with its tail stretching to the 55D EMA. Daily indicators has stochastic heading lower while macd’s are also poised for a bear cross. Note we may have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. From the 4H picture we have a mixed view with stochastic pushing up and macd’s heading lower. From the hourly charts we have a bullish macd while stochastic is in the process of crossing up. It appears that we may be bouncing off the EMA lines look for buys off the 21D EMA 1.6021 or on a close above 1.6043.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2919 minor / 1.2947 moderate / 1.2973 minor
Support: 1.2878 moderate / 1.2856 minor / 1.2833 minor

Friday saw Euro selling off some more closing within the daily EMA lines while indicators were dragged to even more bearish views. After gapping lower at the open for the week we have the daily macd crossing lower while stochastic is oversold though prices appear to be respecting the 55D EMA, 1.2891. Note Fridays candle is not quite a bearish vote nor is it a bullish reversal with a large enough real body disqualifying it as a hammer. In 4H charts we have a confluence of bears as macds continue to head down while stochastic has just crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys. Look for a close under 1.2878 to spark the next down leg or a rejection off the 1.2947 area.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0490 minor / 1.0519 moderate / 1.0546 minor
Support: 1.0478 minor / 1.0459 minor / 1.0443 minor

At the close Friday, Aussy managed to retain a bullish real body though the limited range has failed to take out the key resistance at 1.0519. Among indicators we have stochastic flat while macd is technically bullish above the signal line though we have little momentum for the upside. From the lower time frames we have more indecision among 4H candles while stochastic has crossed lower and the macd is flat. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears in both stochastic and macd. Given the indecisive overall market, bearish hourly indicators and minor supports we prefer looking for a close under 1.0478 for a possible bear market to 1.0436 the projected low with partial profits at 1.0459. Alternatively look for a bounce off 1.0478 if prices remain above it by the European session.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6054 minor / 1.6086 moderate / 1.6124 moderate
Support: 1.6035 minor / 1.6009 moderate / 1.5988 minor

Given the broadly firmer dollar we saw Cable finally seeing a bearish breakout yesterday after being preceded by reversal candles the prior two days. From indicators we have a bearish divergence in daily stochastic while macd is topping off and prices just above the EMA lines. Intraday we are seeing mixed advise as hourly indicators has stochastic pushing higher while macd is heading down. This as 4H charts see an oversold stochastic and macd heading lower. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a break of 1.6035 should be seen as a bearish entry.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2973 minor / 1.3019 moderate / 1.3046 minor
Support: 1.2947 moderate / 1.2913 minor / 1.2880 moderate

Thursday continued the theme of mean reversion all the way down to the ultimate target 21D EMA almost seeing twice the average daily range. Note we have the 21D EMA now at 1.2947 just around the 38.2 Fib of the rally from November. Among indicators we have stochastic poised to move oversold while macd is topping off. In the lower time frames we have stochastic oversold in 4H charts while macd is dropping and momentum appears have been lost. Hourly charts also appears to have a confluence of bears among indicators though price charts has a double bottom. For now though the key concern will be any push below the 21D EMA as this opens EURUSD to getting caught in range play inside the daily EMA lines.