Articles by Bogdan Parascanu

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro bounced back to retest that broken trendline we have marked on our daily charts, the move came as a bit of surprise to us after the ECB rate announcement on Thursday as we expected the pair to print a new low; well, we failed to make a new low and the quote just shot up breaking through the 1.4700/1.4735 resistance area and only stopping just above 1.4800 at the touch of the above mentioned trendline. At this moment in time we are in a tough zone, although the pair is in overbought territory on the daily chart more and more traders are starting to look once again at the 1.5000 as a serious target after the ECB decided to hold the interest rate. Breaking above yesterday’s high will bring the pair in throwing distance of the current record high at 1.4965and with a solid chance of reaching the 1.5000 target.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Tuesday’s Jan 8th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro traded just below the 1.4700 level for the better part of today’s session in expectation of the ECB rate announcement. Unless we see a major surprise there, the pair is expected to continue its downside move towards the 1.4600 level and lower.

GbpUsd retraced to the 50 Fibonacci line of the 1.9760/1.9560 down move and after the BOe announced that it’s keeping interest rates at 5.50% the pair spiked up but we are seeing it resuming the downtrend; first target is this mornings low at 1.9535 before breaking below the 1.9500 round number.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro broke lower on Wednesday getting below 1.4700 and printed a low at 1.4640. The downside momentum is not that big but the pair is slowly heading lower as expected, next bearish target is the 1.4600 round level which coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement line of the bigger move north from October’s 1.4000 low to November’s 1.4967 record high. Looking at the daily chart below we can spot clearly the next areas where eurUsd might found support and these are 1.4600 and 1.4500 both levels that have proven to be relevant to price action in the past.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed an inside bar on Tuesday and until now, today’s price action has been contained inside yesterday’s as the pair covered only 40 points from low to high. The intermediary resistance at 1.4735 has so far proven to be a strong one and this is in line with our previous comments, that while we’re trading below 1.4750 we should look for possible short targets; moving under the 1.4700 round number should give us a more clearer bearish signal at least for short term. Conversely a push in the 1.4750-1.4800 area will get us closer to the trendline we have marked on our daily chart below and will force us to be more cautious about opening new shorts.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Tuesday’s Jan 8th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd traded so far insde yesterday’s small range and only covered just above 50 pips from the opening low to the 1.4736 high. The pair seems to be in a build up period that result in a break out, most likely in the Us session, a retest of the 1.4800 resistance line is to be expected if we break above the 1.4736 level, that we see marked on the chart below with a trendline.

GbpUsd pushed higher in the Asian session and appears to have formed a bearish Gartley pattern on the 1 hour timeframe, a break under the 1.9750 support zone will confirm this and we expect the pair to challeange yesterday’s lows, conversely a failure to do so will bring the pair closer to the 1.9800 level and today’s high of 1.9826.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro confirmed our bearish expectations on Monday and moved below 1.4700 although the strength of the move wasn’t big we saw the pair print a low of 1.4655 before bouncing back up in today’s Asian session. As long as the 1.4750 level stays unchallenged we maintain our bearish bias and expect a continuation south, but if the pair starts to trade closer to the 1.4750-1.4800 resistance area we think that EurUSd will enter into a consolidation period and those are more of a continuation pattern than a reversal one, so the chances of going higher increase significantly.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Monday’s Jan 7th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro continued the down move started on Friday afternoon and opened the week moving lower, breaking the 1.4700 support level after a second try late in the Asian session. The pair found support around the 1.4660 area and is now retesting, the former support now turned into resistance, just above the 1.4700 round number. We maintain the bearish view on this pair as as long as the resistance level hold the downside pressure will push the quote lower towards today’s lows.

GbpUsd moved below the 1.9700 level early in the day but bounced right back above towards the 1.9750 level which is Friday’s middle range. We saw a lower low being formed today that supports our bearish sentiment and without any unexpected events later in the day the pair has a fair chance of testing the lows at 1.9650.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro recovered in the last week of 2007 and got above 1.4700 where the pair traded in the past few days, and formed a hammer candle on the weekly chart(as seen below). While we are trading below Friday’s high at 1.4830 we maintain our bearish bias on this pair and expect a move lower aiming at first for the 1.4600 area as an intermediary target before the 1.4300 December low. EurUsd is trading in an overbought area close to a strong resistance level on the daily chart and this is one of the facts that makes us think the pair is going to go lower. Conversely a move above Friday’s high will certainly be a blow to shorts and perhaps shift focus towards the psychological target of 1.5000, a target we failed to reach in November.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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