Articles by Bogdan Parascanu

Thursday’s Jan 14th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd printed a new weekly low this morning just under the 1.4600 level but after that it started retracing toward yesterday’s 50% Fibonacci line at 1.4730 which is also where we have marked on our chart a downsloping trendline connecting Wednesday and Thursday’s highs; the resistance at that level should be enough to turn the pair back down toward the lows.

GbpUsd failed to make a higher high today and bounced back and forth between 1.9600 support and 1.9700 resistance at the moment is trading right in the middle of this range. We expect the pair to at least test the 1.9600 support if not to go a little lower toward the 1.9550 zone.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro confirmed the bearish pattern formed on Tuesday and the pair fell sharply on Wednesday supported also by some dovish commentaries from and ECB banker. Yesterday’s range was over 250 points, we haven’t seen such a long candle since mid December, it broke through the closest intermediary support levels and only stopped and bounce back a little around the 1.4600 zone which is also the 61.8 Fibonacci line of the bigger move north from last year. A break below 1.4600 will confirm the current bearish momentum and will get us closer to the 1.4500 level, the next significant target and support level. Conversely a bounce back from here will bring the pair right back in the 1.4600/1.4835 congestion area.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Wednesday’s Jan 14th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd retraced in the Asian session to the 50% Fibonacci line of yesterday’s down move and finding resistance at the 1.4850 area resumed the move down breaking below 1.4800. Without any surprises as we’ve had recently the pair should continue toward the 1.4700 target zone.

GbpUsd covered over 120 points so far today but failed to move decisively under yesterday’s low at 1.9550; until we see this happening the pair will maintain trading inside the current range between the 1.9550 support and below 1.9670 resistance.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a bearish outside bar on Tuesday, price action very volatile with the pair moving higher early in the trading day and after just taking out Mondays high for a couple of points it fell straight down closing the day around the 1.4800 level. We mentioned yesterday that if the EurUsd formed a toppish pattern around the yearly high would give bears a new opportunity to short, well the pattern formed and although we failed to retest the November 2007 highs there are signs new shorts have entered the marked, especially after yesterday’s downside momentum. A push decisively below 1.4800 will reinforce the short term bearish sentiment and will more than likely bring the pair lower toward last weeks low at 1.4640/50 support area. Conversely lack of strength on the bears part will keep the pair trading around these levels until we get some news that will force it to retest the 1.4930 intermediary resistance.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Tuesday’s Jan 14th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd traded inside yesterday’s range so far just below the 1.4900 round number. The low was formed at 1.4830 where we have support offered by the 62 EMA on the hourly charts, after reaching that early in the UK session the pair started to head toward the 1.4900 resistance.

GbpUsd already covered 150 points in today’s trading hours, it formed a triangle on the intraday timeframe, a triangle from which is broke north and after two attempt it got even above the 1.9650 level, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last big move down. A retest of the upper side of that triangle is not to be ruled our but the short term bias is bullish.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a new high on Monday at 1.4915 just at the the up sloping trendline connecting August and September 2007 lows. The pair got in touching distance of the 1.4966 high and it still got a chance to get there in the next few days even if it doesn’t break decisively above the mentioned trendline. Forming a toppish pattern around the 2007 high or close to the 1.5000 psychological target will give bears a new opportunity to open shorts as we see the beginning of a bearish divergence on the higher timeframes. We didn’t expect the pair to move this high but after making a new high and showing some bullish momentum we are starting to look at what will happen if and when we will reach the 1.5000 level, like we said it’ll be a good place to short but there are already numerous voices in the markets that say it will go even higher.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Monday’s Jan 14th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd pushed higher and got above 1.4900 so far in today’s trading session and although at the moment is trading just a few points below that it has built up some bullish short term momentum, perhaps enough to make it to the 1.5000 zone in the next few days.

GbpUsd moved also higher, but with little momentum covering only 70 points from the Asian low to the early UK session high. Trading above 1.9600 is hard the pair having some tough resistance to break at 1.9650 which is also a former low from early this year and also is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.9830/1.9480 down move.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro opened the week trading lower and slowly slipped toward the 1.4600 support level but after failing to make a new low on Thursday, the day of the ECB interest rate announcement, at 1.4640 it pushed higher for the rest of that day and retested once again an important resistance trendline just above 1.4800. Trading on Friday was slow as the pair stayed contained inside a small range around the 1.4800 level. We have reached a point where bullish traders, the ones that have their sights set on 1.5000, fight with the ones that look at the USD strength and expect a move lower toward the December low at 1.4300. We, for the time being, maintain our rather bearish point of view and that is the following, as long as the the 1.4825 resistance holds we look for shorting opportunities, a break above that resistance will force us to start looking for a test of the 2007 1.4966 November high before reaching the 1.500 psychological target.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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