About Mark De La Paz:
Mark uses fundamentals - "the map" - as a gauge on the "real economic value" of the currency. Technical analysis serves as "the compass", providing the cues and direction on which roads to take - also known as market timing.
Joining the FX Instructor team, Mark hopes to both learn from and be a good mentor to members of our growing community.
Resistance: 81.99 minor / 82.26 minor / 82.54 minor
Support: 81.65(69) strong / 81.44 minor / 81.07 minor
After slowly drifting lower USDJPY finally managed to get to the trigger for its double top in the daily charts with prices now just above 81.69 area, and its 21D EMA 81.65. Among indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has crossed lower. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading down and macd pointing up. Given the mixed view we need a close under 81.69 to press the sell side, take too long and we open USDJPY for a possible bounce off a key support level.
Resistance: 1.6124 moderate / 1.6172 moderate / 1.6205 moderate
Support: 1.6086 minor / 1.6050 minor / 1.6009 moderate
Tuesday saw Cable with long wick for a ‘shooting star’ if not ‘gravestone doji’ in the daily candlesticks. Among indicators we still have a bullish stochastic just pushing overbought while macd has also moved up, we also have ‘golden crosses’ among the daily EMA lines. In intraday charts we have 4H macd topping off looking poised to cross lower while stochastic is also heading for oversold areas. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s heading lower and stochastic also pointing down. For now we are looking for a close under 1.6086 to trigger a pullback to 1.6050 then key supports at 1.6009. Alternative entry will be a rejection off 1.6124 with stops above the projected high at 1.6147.
Resistance: 1.3108 minor / 1.3139 minor / 1.3170 moderate
Support: 1.3072 moderate / 1.3046 minor / 1.3019 strong
Euro again ended up with a bullish candle for the daily charts though the body is noticeable smaller than the previous and prices appear to be well off the AMA lines than mean reversion is becoming a risk. Daily indicators has an overbought stochastic while macd is rising. In the lower time frames we have a bullish stochastic oscillating around 80 to suggest a healthy up trend while macd is also heading up. Price action however appears to suggest that momentum may have been lost. Hourly charts for their part has a long wick in the previous candlestick while macd is bearish and stochastic heading lower. Immediate risk calls for a pullback to the 1.3072 moderate support. Note we have key releases out of the Euro area with consensus forecast calling for weak figures opening the possibility of position squaring ahead of the Services PMI and Retail Sales numbers.
Resistance: 1.0490 minor / 1.0519 moderate / 1.0545 minor
Support: 1.0465 minor / 1.0440 minor / 1.0415 minor
Aussy saw another rally yesterday with the bounce off the daily EMA lines monday seeing us back around the turning point for previous attempts at a surge in AUDUSD. Among indicators we have daily stochastic heading up while macd has just crossed higher. Note we have just seen weaker than expected Australian GDP suggesting fundies have a down side risk this on top of yesterdays rate cut. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought areas in 4H charts while macd is bullish. Hourly charts are also mixed with a bearish macd and stochastic coming off oversold levels. At the moment we are looking for a close under 1.0465 to trigger a sharper pullback following the surged in the previous two days.