27 November Probability Studies – Slow Markets due to Thanksgiving

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

- Chinese Central bank cut rates yesterday

- Stocks continue to rally

- India closes exchanges after terrorist attacks

- Not much expected from the markets today due to US Thanksgiving holiday

Key events:

- 09:00  GMT       Germany Unemployment change
- 09:00  GMT       Germany Unemployment rate
- 09:00  GMT       Eurozone M3 Money Supply
- 10:00  GMT       Eurozone Business climate
- 10:00  GMT       Eurozone Economic sentiment
- 10:00  GMT       Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Probability Studies:

Bullish probability but we still have a no trade zone within this probability. Watch the 60minute trend support at 1.2800. If the latter is taken out we will have a bearish probability all of a sudden.

If the no trade zone prevails then it will be for a reason as we might even see a Head and Shoulders pattern developing so be careful

Bearish probability. Once the 1 hour stochastic crosses bearish you will have a bearish trading condition. Expect resistance at 1.2020 as this resembles the bearish 60minute trend resistance line. Also, if this trendline is violated the bearish probability will be no more

I can see the 1 hour stochastic crossed bullish already but if this cross will be confirmed remains to be seen. Expect resistance at 1.5550 (bearish current trend resistance line – blue)

No trade zone. The current trend has taken on the form of a triangular pattern and to trade the cycles within this pattern are becoming increasingly risky. A breakout in any direction could be substantial..

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to our US counterparts

Johan Kriek