25 November Probability Studies – US GDP watched

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

- Equities rebound on CitiGroup rescue

- Germany GDP -0.5%, signals recession and possible rate cuts from ECB

Key events:

- 09:45 GMT (UK) MPC Treasury Committee Hearings

- 13:30 GMT (US) U.S. GDP

- 15:00 GMT (US) Consumer confidence

- 15:00 GMT (US) House price index

Probability Studies:

Bullish trading condition. After the violation of the bearish current trend the direction of highest probability has changed to bullish and therefore the new bullish 60minute trend. As long as the 1 hour stochastic remains bullish the EUR will be situated in a bullish trading condition giving you ample opportunities to execute your own trading entry system within this direction

Exactly the opposite, bearish trading condition. Eventually the bullish current trend support has been violated and the new bearish 60minute trend has been identified using the highest significant turning points at 1.2296 and 1.2223 respectively. Remember that this new 60minute trend will eventually evolve to become the new bearish current trend according to the popular Probability Study technique

A confirmed bullish stochastic cross will provide a bullish trading condition and possibly ample trading opportunities to go with it

Expect resistance at 1.5248/50 (remember that this resistance can only cause a brief halt in price movement and not necessarily signal a fully fledged pullback)

On the JPY we have a current trend in the form of triangular pattern and at this point in time the 60minute trend reflects the bullish cycle within this pattern, therefore the bullish probability. The upper line resistance is at 98.00 and the lower line support is at 94.00

Happy trading and see you in the LTR!

Johan Kriek