24 June Probability Study – FOMC Meeting Begins Today

The FOMC meeting begins today and the rate announcement will be released tomorrow. Although we do not expect the Fed to hike rates this soon, any newly founded Hawkishness might just be the catalyst for the Greenback to strengthen further. On the economic release front for today we have Germany’s GFk survey at 06:10 GMT with Consumer Confidence and House Price Index figures in the US at 14:00 GMT.

If the figures in the US are better than consensus we might even see the Dollar strengthen against the EUR by breaking the 1.5460 support level.

Nevertheless, we always put a lot of weight on the technical climate of the major pairs and herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. We identified a new bearish 60minute trend by connecting the highest significant turning point although the new trend is still in the process of evolving. Nevertheless, the 1 hour indicators are bullish at this stage, therefore the No Trade Zone. The 1.5460 support level is a major concern and we would wait for price to trend below this level before taking any more shorts. The probability is still bearish but let’s wait and see if it prevails. We might have an interesting day today

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place Price has violated the bearish 60minute trend resistance line but could not breach the high of 1.0520 which is the bearish Current Trend resistance (blue line). Even if the 1 hour indicators cross bullish, which would place the CHF in a bullish trading condition, we would still wait for price to take out the high of 1.0520 before deeming the CHF tradeable

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is converging between the Major Trend resistance (red line) at 1.9770 and the bullish Current Trend support (blue line) at 1.9610. If 1.9610 is taken out the bearish probability will prevail and we will also have a suitable bearish trading condition. At this stage we will stand aside but still keep a close eye

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend is still intact although the range is quite high. If price violated the resistance line and takes out the high of 108.20, we will have a bullish trading condition. At this stage we can see how the 1 hour indicators are crossing bearish and if market rhythm starts to trend lower we will have a bearish trading condition once again

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