21 May Probability Studies – BoE & FOMC minutes Key

EuroZone

The IFO business climate was released a few minutes ago and it came out better than expected at 103.5 versus a consensus of 102, therefore the huge spike in the EUR. The next significant release will be the BoE meeting minutes. More votes for a cut reflected in today’s BoE minutes will revive speculations that BoE will cut again in the future

US

The FOMC minutes will definitely give us an insight from an Interest Rate perspective. The Fed cut rates with 25bp previously and any signs of neutrality of even hikes in the future will revive Dollar strength. So be warned!

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. The huge spike we saw lately sparked bullish crosses on all the 1 hour indicators, therefore the bullish condition. Also note that we adjusted the 60minute trend to accurately reflect the most ACTIVE trend. Should the 60minute trend support line at 1.5630 be violated to the downside, the bullish probability will be no more

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Due to the fact that the hourly indicators are bullish, the JPY will only be tradeable once these indicators cross bearish once again

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bullish, the indicators are clearly bearish as price found serious resistance and the bearish Current Trend resistance line at 1.9720. Keep and eye on the BoE minutes and any dovishness from this statement can send the Cable much lower

USD/CHF – Bearish Trading Condition. A bearish 60minute trend accompanied by bearish indicators places this one in a great bearish trading condition. Just keep and eye on the Bullish Current Trend support line ( 1.0270) as price can bounce here

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/support/webinar.php to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades