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2009 April

April 30th, 2009 @ 11:53 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 01th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was in critical situation yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3383 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hit the bottom at 1.3192 and closed at 1.3228. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair attempted to breakout from the triangle but failed before moved back significantly to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3100 support area but remains neutral in medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3265 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside scenario. CCI in neutral area both in h4 and daily chart.

eurusd4hchart16

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3152
  • S2= 1.3076
  • S3= 1.2961
  • R1= 1.3343
  • R2= 1.3458
  • R3= 1.3534

GBPUSD Outlook
We had a volatile market yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4940 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to downside, hit the bottom at 1.4705 and closed at 1.4788. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. Immediate support is seen at 1.4705 (yesterday’s low). Break below that level could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4600 area. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

gbpusd4hchart14

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4682
  • S2= 1.4576
  • S3= 1.4447
  • R1= 1.4917
  • R2= 1.5046
  • R3= 1.5152

USDJPY Outlook
The reason why I like candlestick is because it is quiet simple but very powerful. After we saw a hammer on April 28, the pair had 2 days of bullish momentum. The bias remains bullish but we seem to have good resistance around 98.97 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario targeting 99.70 area. Immediate support is seen at 98.25 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for a potential minor downside pullback.

usdjpydaily4

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.51
  • S2= 96.40
  • S3= 95.67
  • R1= 99.35
  • R2= 100.08
  • R3= 101.19

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1270 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 1.1431 and closed at 1.1403. On h4 chart below we have a hammer formation appeared before the bullish movement indicating a potential bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.1515 area but remains neutral in medium term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1370/50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

usdchf4hchart9

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1305
  • S2= 1.1207
  • S3= 1.1144
  • R1= 1.1466
  • R2= 1.1529
  • R3= 1.1627

Have a great day!

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April 29th, 2009 @ 11:02 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 30th of April, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.3338 and closed at 1.3269. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is challenging the upper line of the triangle. A breakout from the triangle could be a potential signal for further bullish scenario in medium term. However, as long as the price still in the triangle area, the bias remains neutral in medium term. CCI in overbought area and about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting a potential bullish exhaustion and downside pullback testing 1.3200 support area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.3100.

eurusd4hchart15

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3146
  • S2= 1.3023
  • S3= 1.2927
  • R1= 1.3365
  • R2= 1.3461
  • R3= 1.3584

GBPUSD Outlook
After 2 days of indecisive movement, the GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakout to the upside of the triangle formation, the pair topped at 1.4810 and closed at 1.4767. The bias is bullish in nearest term and the price might challenge the trendline resistance once again but should remains neutral in medium term.  I think it’s better to stay away from the market and wait for further development. Immediate support is seen at 1.4690. Break below that level could trigger further bearish pullback towards 1.4600 and 1.4515 area. Initial resistance at 1.4850. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart13

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4648
  • S2= 1.4529
  • S3= 1.4448
  • R1= 1.4848
  • R2= 1.4929
  • R3= 1.5048

USDJPY Outlook
The Hammer formation gave us a valid warning of a bullish reversal scenario. The pair had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 97.92 and closed at 97.63. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 98.25 area. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential downside pullback testing 97.00/20 support area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum.

usdjpydaily3

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.70
  • S2= 95.77
  • S3= 95.16
  • R1= 98.24
  • R2= 98.85
  • R3= 99.78

USDCHF Outlook
The combination of a hanging man and a shooting star candlestick formation gave us a valid bearish scenario. The pair bottomed at 1.1300 but closed higher at 1.1361. We seem to have good support around 1.1300 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.1200 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h4 chart suggesting a potential upside rebound testing 1.1400 resistance area.

usdchf4hchart8

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1292
  • S2= 1.1223
  • S3= 1.1147
  • R1= 1.1437
  • R2= 1.1513
  • R3= 1.1582

Have a great day!

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April 28th, 2009 @ 11:29 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 29th of April, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.2966 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 1.3165 and closed at 1.3147. The fact that the pair closed above 1.3100 now take us back into no trading zone area in nearest term. In medium term outlook the price movement is considered normal since still moving in the triangle area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3165 (yesterday’s high) area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3215 and 1.3290 area. Initial support at 1.3050 – 1.3000 area. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

eurusd4hchart14

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3020
  • S2= 1.2893
  • S3= 1.2821
  • R1= 1.3219
  • R2= 1.3291
  • R3= 1.3418

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the price still moving below the trendline resistance. We also have triangle formation indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stay away from the market now. We might have a potential ranging market between 1.4750 – 1.4515 today. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, h4, daily).

gbpusd4hchart12

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4534
  • S2= 1.4439
  • S3= 1.4362
  • R1= 1.4706
  • R2= 1.4783
  • R3= 1.4878

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 95.62 but closed higher at 96.43. On daily chart below we have a Hammer formation indicating a potential bullish reversal scenario. However the bias is unclear in nearest term and it’s better to stay away from the market. Immediate resistance at 96.60/70 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 97.50. Initial support at 95.50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum towards 94.40 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h4 chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdjpydaily2

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 95.78
  • S2= 95.13
  • S3= 94.65
  • R1= 96.91
  • R2= 97.39
  • R3= 98.04

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF failed to continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we have a hanging man formation followed by a shooting star indicating a potential bearish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1400. Break below that area could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.1300 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.1480 resistance area.

usdchf4hchart7

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1364
  • S2= 1.1303
  • S3= 1.1188
  • R1= 1.1540
  • R2= 1.1655
  • R3= 1.1716

Have a great day!

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April 28th, 2009 @ 6:53 am by Johan Kriek

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By Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

- Swine Flue will most probably hit equities hard, suspected to move to Asia next

Probability Study

eur4hr

The major trend on the EUR still remains bearish at this stage with the possibility of the huge Head and Shoulders now forming the peak of the right shoulder. Expect neckline support at 1.2550

eur4hr21

The current (secondary trend) is bearish as well with intermediate support at 1.2950. Keep and eye on this one although I think it shouldn’t hold. We can also now see the most active cycle within the bearish current trend (green trend lines)

eur1hr1

Here we have a 1 hour chart and clearly the 60minute trend is bearish. I am waiting for the 1 hour stochastic to cross bearish to present me with a nice trading condition. Let’s see how long this no trade zone within bearish probability lasts..

Join us in the Live Trading room here at FXInstructor to follow the moves first-hand

Enjoy your trading day

Johan

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April 28th, 2009 @ 1:51 am by Mark De La Paz

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After a brief surge following a poor open, US equity markets ended in negative territory seeing currency markets sticking to their risk averse tone as investors chew on the implications of the ‘swine virus’ scare that hit the world like wild fire over the weekend. Despite the geographic scale of the virus reach though, with most of the deaths reported confined in Mexico we expect markets will soon forget the negativity with the unpredictable event risks going forward likely to remain the Q1 corporate results with half the companies listed in Deutsche Borse reporting this week. Today in Asia about the only event risk worth noting are March Retail Sales figures with consensus forecasts calling for an annualized -4.9% read following the previous -5.8% contraction. For currency markets this could serve as a good excuse to further risk aversion plays as we keep a close watch on the lows of the likes of  EURJPY (125.49), USDJPY (96.33), AUDJPY (68.03), along with Euro (1.30004) and Aussy (0.7066) violations of which could be seen as triggers for even more weakness in the Asian trade.

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April 27th, 2009 @ 11:50 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 28th of April, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
In my EURUSD weekly summary on Saturday (April 25) I said that we might have a potential “war” this week, whether “the pair is going to make a breakout to the upside from the triangle to make a bigger bullish scenario back towards 1.3734 or breakdown from the third minor bullish channel (number 3) and continue the bearish scenario”. Well, it looks like the bearish power is in control right now. The third minor bullish channel was violated to the downside and the pair should continue the bearish scenario. The pair fell below 1.3100 and now testing 1.3000 psychological level. Break below that level could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2890 area. CCI about to cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside rebound testing 1.3050 – 1.3100 resistance area.

eurusd4hchart13

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2942
  • S2= 1.2848
  • S3= 1.2697
  • R1= 1.3187
  • R2= 1.3338
  • R3= 1.3432

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday. After violated the rising wedge formation to the downside (which should gave us a good short signal), the pair had a bearish momentum, bottomed at 1.4515 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and on hourly chart below we can see that the pair back to the upside testing the lower line of the rising wedge (now resistance). The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.4570 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 1.4750. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, h4, daily).

gbpusdhourly2

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4541
  • S2= 1.4439
  • S3= 1.4364
  • R1= 1.4718
  • R2=1.4793
  • R3= 1.4895

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. On hourly chart below we cans see that after had bearish momentum the pair seems to have good support around 96.50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 95.50. Immediate resistance is seen at 96.90. CCI about to cross the -100 line down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdjpyhourly6

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.41
  • S2= 96.08
  • S3= 95.74
  • R1= 97.08
  • R2= 97.42
  • R3= 97.75

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that once again, the trendline support did a great job preventing further bearish attack. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1670 area. However CCI in overbought area and about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside rebound testing 1.1515 support area.

usdchf4hchart6

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1407
  • S2= 1.1261
  • S3= 1.1164
  • R1= 1.1650
  • R2= 1.1747
  • R3= 1.1893

Have a great day!

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April 27th, 2009 @ 5:26 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everyone!

Just to take a break from the heavily traded majors, I’m signaling a possible opportunity on EURCHF with possible entry signals as we speak.

eurchf__d1_27apr

1) Price is now below 1.5080, in the middle of weekly triangle & right below the H4 & D1 support. All we need for this bear setup to be confirmed is to see the daily closing here (H4 closed below already, but the candle was not convincing enough).

2) The daily waves are indicating (at least!) a large ABC starting 1.5446 with targets as low as 1.49. This last level corresponds with the 61% fib of the D1 1.4576-1.5446  wave up.

3) 1.5086 confirmed that we broke the D1 / H4 triangle down, however since we are not far from that level & I don’t usually trust triangle breakouts too much this is not my first argument.

eurchf__h4_27apr

4) This triangle breakout occurs in the direction of D1, H4 & H1 waves, which all point down at this time.  The H4 shows we should be in a wave C on the black level, then a wave 3 on the blue & a possible wave 3 on the light green H1 formation. All this strongly favors shorts while this alignment lasts.

5) The H4 moving averages picture looks bearish as well, with a swing failure indicating south & an overall bearish alignment on all time frames below D1 strengthening this view. A lot of consolidation on this pair lately and a relatively tight range for the last 1 month indicates that a short-term move is bound to happen. Since there are already several bearish scenarios confirmed but no real bullish signs just yet, im expecting this breakout to be in the direction of the short-term

6) 1.5150 is the immediate level canceling this setup, with 1.5180 & 1.5240 possibly confirming reversal signals. If EURCHF reaches above 1.5110 before or right after London open i suggest you postpone the entry until at least the H4 breakout is clearly in effect.

Good luck & let me know what you think!

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April 26th, 2009 @ 11:57 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 27th of April, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish correction on Friday. The pair topped at 1.3299 and closed at 1.3241. On h4 chart below we have a double top formation around 1.3295 area which should  provide us an important resistance at this phase. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.3395 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.3185 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3100. CCI in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

eurusd4hchart12

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3135
  • S2= 1.3030
  • S3= 1.2948
  • R1= 1.3322
  • R2= 1.3404
  • R3= 1.3509

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD bullish correction was paused on Friday. On hourly chart below we have a rising wedge formation indicating a potential bearish reversal scenario after a bullish momentum since April 22. A break down from the rising wedge should trigger further bearish scenario back towards 1.4400 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4770 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4900. Initial support at 1.4600 – 1.4580 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

gbpusdhourly1

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4564
  • S2= 1.4473
  • S3= 1.4370
  • R1= 1.4758
  • R2= 1.4861
  • R3= 1.4952

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday. After violated the descending triangle to the downside, the pair bottomed at 96.63 and closed at 97.09. The bias is bearish targeting 95.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 97.15 area. Break above that area should take us back into no trading zone.

usdjpyhourly5

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.43
  • S2= 95.78
  • S3= 94.93
  • R1= 97.93
  • R2= 98.78
  • R3= 99.43

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.1347 and closed at 1.1394. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is struggling around the trendline support area which has been a strong support since March 19. A valid break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum. Immediate support is seen at 1.1347 (Friday’s low). Initial resistance at 1.1415. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.1515. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdchf4hchart5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1319
  • S2= 1.1244
  • S3= 1.1142
  • R1= 1.1496
  • R2= 1.1598
  • R3= 1.1673

Have a great day!

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