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2008 January

January 31st, 2008 @ 10:23 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Riding the “Post-Interest Rate Decision” Rollercoasters

Hey guys, choppy market action today after yesterday’s interest rate decision – 0.5% cut and more cuts expected, so the headlines read: broad bearishness for the dollar. Which is why we focused on some short-term SHORT setups on EURUSD, GBPUSD :) At times like this when the market actors agree on a certain scenario (in our case the dollar falling), I’m thinking they will probably be right, but NOT RIGHT AWAY. Remember – the fundamentals are not what they appear…

EURCHF displayed an excellent shorting opportunity (a perfect wave formation backed up by divergences and trendline break) – we went in 1.6103 and closed the position during US session for 71 pips (the trade of the day).

We also took a short GBPJPY – low risk position for a large target – our 30 pips stop got hit by 2 pips and price rallied to our target just after that – better luck next time! :)

Also, took a short EURUSD on a retracement however the pair went up again in a 3rd test up and we got stopped out for -35.

Overall a positive day, however the effects of rollercoaster rides in the main currency pairs obviously didn’t help our technicals.

We also observed bullish scenarios in EURCAD and bearish on all yen pairs – it was only during US session that the yen started to gain some ground (after the US jobless claims report) .

Let’s see what tomorrow brings – I’m still bearish on EURUSD and GBPUSD, for as long as they don’t break the triple tops on the large charts, in which case I’m expecting a sharp rally up that would put an end to the current correction.

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January 30th, 2008 @ 5:35 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Statement

Today our main point of focus is the Fed interest rate statement, a decision that is far from being clear at this point. The market is getting ready for some action tonight, and breakouts are highly possible in almost all currency pairs.

EURUSD and GBPUSD might get ready to take off on a nice rally (EURUSD heading up to 1.4820 at the time of this writing), however I’m still expecting the moves to cool off starting with the US session open and prices getting back in range. Technicals are pointing towards a possible retracement on the higher timeframes, however any down leg needs to be confirmed by the fundamentals, otherwise we are looking at a continuation up.

In the (for me unlikely) situation that the interest rate favors the dollar short-term, the move down in EURUSD and GBPUSD just after the news could be a good opportunity to re-enter long on the larger bullish trend on these pairs.

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January 28th, 2008 @ 8:06 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hello everybody!

We started today’s London session with an careful look at GBPUSD and GBPJPY, where the overall sentiment seemed bullish at the time. With the EW picture suggesting both pairs possibly getting out of the minor correction down started on Friday and short-term technicals also confirming reversal (including 200MA signal on 15m) we went LONG on cable @1.9808 on a trendline break confirming a 1-2-3 setup. Stop was placed below the trednline @1.9758. Our target is the possible top of a 5 waves formation up at 1.9915 (where another pullback can be expected).

Also, GBPJPY seemed to continue the large retracement move started last week and so far we have a good support @209.61, a previous resistance and supp. As long as the pair is holding above this level, we are still on a bullish retracement scenario, with initial target @212.10, followed by 214.00 and 217.50.

EURUSD looked like trading in range, and we expect it to continue some range trading until the interest rate decision on Wednesday. No trades on this pair today.

USDCAD has confirmed already a bearish move on Friday, and we are looking for possible entries short.

See you tomorrow!

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January 27th, 2008 @ 6:13 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd put in another interesting week, as far as movements and volatility are concerned, it opened moving lower due to the US holiday and after an above average move on Monday the pair continued on Tuesday until the FED interest rate announcement that pushed EurUsd much higher above 1.4600, the weeks high was established on Thursday at 1.4778, the close on Friday found the pair trading just 70 points of the Sunday night open, at 1.4670. After failing to reach the 1.4300 support area we can see a higher low being formed and slowly we can see the pair has traded inside a 600 points range for the past few months and with the current market bias we can expect to test once again the 1.4900 resistance zone, and, if the pair has enough strength perhaps make a push toward the 1.5000 psychological target. Conversely on the south side the main resistance is now the area just above 1.4300 uo to 1.4360, a break of this will give bulls an important blow and bearish traders will have a great opportunity to open new positions.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

Read the rest of this entry »

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January 24th, 2008 @ 9:01 am by Mihai Marinescu

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We started the London session today with a look at GBPUSD and AUDUSD, both pairs were displaying bullish formations (EW / 1-2-3 on several timeframes), with other technicals on 4h and 1D giving further hints of a possible rally up. We were able to identify 2 trading setups for GBPUSD, one of which confirmed later before the cable rally. Also, we identified a bullish setup in GBPJPY just before the breakout, however got stopped out for a few pips (5m and 1m entry, with low risk). EURUSD was perfectly flat at the time. We also analyzed a possible bearish setup on USDCAD based on range breakout and 200MA resistance on 15m (target 1.0140 already hit), but we did not take the position.

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January 24th, 2008 @ 7:48 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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Thursday’s Jan 24th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro found an intraday support base at the 1.4600 level and moved toward yesterday’s at 1.4685; moving higher will get the pair closer to the 1.4700 resistance level and if that gets breached we could see the 1.4825 bullish target touched. This scenario will of course be denied if the resistance levels hold and the pair forms a short term double top that will give bears a new opportunity to short.

eur-jan-24-08-noon.gif

GbpUsd tested the 1.9500 support and slowly started to move higher and it has already pipped a new weekly high, if the pair has enough strength to hold above 1.9600 we could see the 1.9670 resistance being touched later in the afternoon.

gbp-jan-24-08-noon.gif

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January 24th, 2008 @ 3:36 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd is trading at the same level it was when we wrote our previous daily commentary, the pair moved lower in yesterday’s afternoon trading hours but then retraced back up above 1.4600 after finding support at the 1.4500 level. The markets are still undecided after the events we’ve witnessed this week and apparently many are still expecting the FED to cut interest rates again, and until that situation gets some clarification trading will be difficult, the battle between bulls and bears will keep the pair trading close to the current levels.
Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

Read the rest of this entry »

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January 23rd, 2008 @ 7:52 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everybody! We mainly focused on EURUSD today, as the pair seems to be starting a consolidation phase 1.4490-1.4780 with direction to be settled during the next days. For now, it appears that the larger timeframes are somehow ambiguous, but the 1h and lower are showing possible retracement down after yesterday’s sharp move. Also noticed bearish signs on GBPUSD and AUDUSD short-term, however they seem to be part of larger consolidations.
Will keep an eye on the market for possible trading setups on these pairs.

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