19 November Probability Studies – Midday Update

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Notes:

- BoE: 9-0 vote for 150bps cut, signals more to come

Key Events still to come:

- US Housing figures

- US CPI

- FOMC meeting minutes

Probability Studies:

The EUR is still situated in a no trade zone as price cannot violate the bearish current trend at 1.2660 to the upside to signal a confirmed continuation of the bullish probability. Should 1.2600 be taken out then a fully fledged bearish trading condition will unfold. Watch this space… We might see a serious breakout soon

The bearish probability is still intact here even though market rhythm is trending higher. 1.5115 is significant resistance and a bounce here followed by a bearish 1 hour stochastic cross will give me another bearish trading condition. The pattern you can see there is called a rising wedge and it signals a breakout to the downside. Should this pattern fail and price subsequently violate the bearish 60minute trend to the upside then we will have a bullish probability

No Trade Zone, bullish probability. As long as the 60minute trend remains bullish we will have a bullish probability. A 1hour stochastic cross will give us another trading condition as well

No Trade Zone, bearish probability. The 1 hour stochastic is still bullish and I can see how price is finding resistance at the 60minute trend resistance line at 97.00

A break to the downside will force a bearish cross on the 1 hour stoch and then the bearish trading condition will unfold. Anything above 97.00 will signal a bullish probability

No Trade Zone. Price is now converging with the bullish current trend support and the bearish 60minute trend resistance line and therefore we have the triangle

A closer look here signifies that the triangle is symmetric and therefore a possible break to the downside can occur but we have to wait for confirmation

EUR/GBP – no trade zone, bullish probability. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and it seems that price is now finding support at previous violated resistance (60minute trend resistance)

A bullish 1 hour stoch cross will confirm a higher trough and a possible bullish trading condition. Remember that that the major trend is still bullish after the volatile breakout of the broadening formation we can see on the daily chart

I hope you find this update useful as I can see a lot of volatility to come today in the US session..

Have a great one!

Johan Kriek