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Asian Session Notes

Asian Session Notes
Monday, August 1st, 2011 @ 2:46 am by Mark De La Paz

About Mark De La Paz:

Mark De La Paz Mark de la Paz has been a mentor at the educational forex portal FX Instructor since 2007 providing live analysis on the impact of economic and geopolitical events on the Foreign Exchange market and other asset classes. Over the years he has also been a consultant to HNI’s and have helped setup several brokerages and trading operations for different asset classes in the Asia /Oceania region drawing on his vast experience in the OTC market for both buy side and sell side of the business. Mark’s interest in trading began when he dabbled with Philippine equities during his university years then becoming an OTC broker after college. From there he has taken on roles in operations and in research building up the research and technology team for an alternative assets management company and administering MT4 servers as the technology head of a brokerage. As a mentor Mark emphasizes on the need for situational awareness using both technical and fundamental considerations in evaluating a trade situation.

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With congressional and senate leaders coming to terms on the US debt ceiling markets in Asia are off to a strong start while currencies also see risk appetite with the Yen crosses gapping up at the open and seeing a follow through rally. Note however that this new deal still needs to pass through both houses of congress with a very tight deadline looimng thouh the hope is now we may be able to get moderates from both sides of the aisle voting with Obama also signalling his support for the compromise. Early releases as well has also been encouraging as offcial Chinese PMI figures surprised on the upside at 50.7 against the consensus of 50.2 with fears going into the release calling for a possible contraction.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8850/0.8912/0.9000
Sup: 0.8765/0.8717/0.8678
With better than expected manufacturing PMI out of China we saw Kiwi pushing to news highs though we already had a strong start following developments in the US. Daily charts see a bullish engulfing from Friday with the open for the week giving us and upside gap, indicators show a confluence of buys. Intraday we also see a confluence of buys from the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic. For now we are looking for a pullback to at least 0.8765 for new buys towards the latest historical highs.

EURGBP
Res: 0.8784/0.8815/0.8853
Sup: 0.8734/0.8705/0.8688
We are just above a strong support level 0.8734 with daily macd dropping and stochastic in oversold levels. In intraday charts we are seeing short signals from the 4H picture with macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part see a flat macd while stochastic is looking to cross higher. With broad based risk appetite for now we prefer playing the range game, given proximity to a strong support consider buys from just above 0.8734 for 0.8784 with stops at 0.8700.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6467/1.6513/1.6546
Sup: 1.6427/1.6386/1.6343
We continue to look bullish in Cable following Friday’s turn-around and bounce off the bullish daily EMA lines. Other daily indicators show stochastic reentering overbought levels while macd is pushing up. Intraday we have a bullish bias with candles showing higher lows and higher highs in the 4H picture while macd and stochastic sees a confluence of buys in both 4H and hourly time-frames. For the moment we are just under a strong resistance level with attempts to push past the area so far failing. Given the failure to close above 1.6467 immediately we prefer looking for a bounce off the 1.6386 region.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4416/1.4455/1.4496(00)
Sup: 1.4345/1.4299/1.4241
Despite dropping we’ll below the EMA lines Friday, at the close we had a big white body for the candle while daily indicators gave us a bullish cross in stochastic as macd’s continue to push up. From an intraday picture we have a flag pattern in the $H charts with macd’s opening up and stochastic pushing for over bought levels. In hourly charts we have buy signals from both macd and stochastic as well. Given developments in the US global markets are likely to see risk appetite this Monday. We prefer taking the buy side of EURUSD coming off the support at 1.4345, alternative entry would be a break of 1.4416 for the psychological 1.4500 area.

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