15 July Probability Studies – Focus on Bernanke, UK and US inflation

We have a string of fundamentals today. Firstly, we have UK CPI, Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment, US PPI and lastly the Fed’s Bernanke’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony at the Senate

In Forex, currency price are seriously affected when it comes to inflation, therefore the UK CPI will be closely watched as we saw the UK PPI come out a tad weaker yesterday but had a short-lived effect. The US PPI will definitely gauge the rate of inflation or at least give us and indication of where inflation is heading and what to expect from the Fed in the near future…Lastly, Bernanke will try to regain investor confidence today and his tone on inflation and the current state of affairs in the US financial markets will be closely watched as the Bucky is still at serious risk of decreasing in value even further

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. Price is still flirting with the previous highs of Friday and any moves higher from a market rhythm perspective will once again force the overbought 1 hour studies to the upside.

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. We can see how market rhythm is trending higher and pulling the 1 hour stochastic with it. Therefore we will watch the 1 hour stochastic closely as any confirmed bullish crosses will definitely confirm the no trade zone

GBP/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. Same as the EUR. The bullish trading condition will stay intact as long as the 1 hour indicators stay bullish. Keep as close eye on the UK CPI today as it is normally the leading indicator when it comes to inflation…

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The 1 hour indicators are crossing bullish at this stage, therefore the no trade zone. We will stand aside until a suitable trading condition present itself once again

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