12 May Probability Studies – UK PPI & Trade Balance Key

The most significant fundamentals released later today will be the UK PPI and the Trade Balance. Should these releases be weaker than expected, it could prompt the BoE to continue with their easing cycle. We have nothing from the EuroZone today and due to the fact that we have a Swiss market holiday, price might trend in a technical manner

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. Although the MACD is clearly bearish, keep an eye on the Stochastic as any signs of a cross in a bullish direction will place the EUR in a No Trade Zone although the direction of highest probability is bearish

USD/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and accompanied by bullish indicators places this one in a suitable bullish trading condition. Keep an eye on the hourly stochastic as we might see a bearish cross soon

GBP/JPY – No Trade Zone. The 60minute trend is bearish and should we see new highs today, we might attempt to identify a more active 60minute trend but for the time being we have a no trade zone on our hands

GBP/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. Although the hourly indicators are oversold, the bearish probability is significant and as price develops new lows, the Stochastic will keep on opening up to the downside. Keep and eye on the PPI released today as the trading condition can change in an instant if we see better-than-consensus figures

EUR/JPY – No Trade Zone. Price is consolidating, therefore we must stand back and wait for either new higher lows or lower highs to be defined before we can have a closer look

EUR/GBP – Bearish Trading Condition. Although the hourly indicators are oversold, the bearish probability is significant and as price develops new lows, the Stochastic will keep on opening up to the downside. Therefore the bearish trading condition.

EUR/CHF – No Trade Zone. The previous violated bullish Current Trend Support line has now become resistance at 1.6200 and this might prove a significant level as price is in the process of confirming this violation.

USD/CHF – Bullish Trading Condition. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and accompanied by bullish indicators places this one in a suitable bullish trading condition. Keep an eye on the hourly stochastic as we might see a bearish cross soon

USD/CAD – Bullish Trading Condition. As long as the hourly indicators stay bullish, the bullish probability will stay intact

AUD/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the stochastic is bullish, price is finding support at 0.9350 which is the bullish Current Trend Support line (blue line). Should this low be taken out, a possible bearish trading condition will present itself