09 May Probability Studies

No Dovishness from Trichet

The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at 5.00%, which was in-line with the actual consensus and no statements were released as well. Therefore we have to wait until 21 May for the meeting minutes as this will indicate the vote split. Across the Channel, the ECB also kept interest rates at 4.00% which was in-line with expectations. Trichet’s usual hawkish tone (what’s news?) is rather disappointing as the latest fundamentals were definitely weak..

Nevertheless, here are the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. We have a bullish 60minute trend and accompanied by bullish hourly indicators places the EUR in a suitable trading condition. The bearish Current Trend resistance line (blue line) at 1.5460 might halt price for a while or even spark a decline

USD/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. The bullish Current Trend Support Line (blue line) has been violated to the downside and therefore the new bearish 60minute trend. The hourly indicators are bearish which confirms the underlying trading condition

GBP/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. A bearish 60minute trend with bearish indicators places the GBP/JPY in a perfect trading condition

GBP/USD – Bearish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bearish as well as the 1hour stochastic, the MACD must gives us a clear bearish signal before the Cable will be deemed tradeable

EUR/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bearish, the bullish indicators are keeping us out of this one. Wait for the indicators to cross bearish before trading again. Should the 60minute trend be violated to the upside, we will have a bullish scenario on our hands

EUR/GBP – Bullish Probability. A bullish 60minute trend with bullish indicators places the EUR/GBP in a bullish probability. As soon as the bearish current trend resistance line (blue line) is violated to the upside we will have a suitable bullish trading condition on our hands

EUR/CHF – No Trade Zone. We cannot identify a suitable probability as the bearish 60minute trend must still be defined. The fact the indicators are bullish is last nail in the coffin. Wait for either the bullish Current Trend Support line (blue line) to be violated significantly or wait for price to start trending higher.

USD/CHF – Bearish Trading Condition. A bearish 60minute trend with bearish indicators places the CHF in a perfect trading condition. Enjoy!

USD/CAD – No Trade Zone. Price is now trending above the Major Trend Support line (orange line) and as soon as we can identify a suitable bullish 60minute trend, the CAD will be tradeable. For the time being we have to wait for a clear probability to evolve

AUD/USD – Bullish Probability. We identified a new bullish 60minute trend and as soon as the indicators gives us a confirmed bullish cross we will definitely have a suitable trading condition on our hands