06 May Probability Studies

Euroland’s PPI key

The PPI released today in the EUROZONE will definitely have an impact on the market as inflation is still very much a concern for the ECB. Any lower-than-consensus figure might emphasize a more dovish stance from the ECB and can cause traders to factor this into the markets today even before we reach Thursday. Trichet will also speak today and it will be interesting to hear what he says regarding the high Oil price and inflation

Herewith the Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Price violated the bearish Current Trend resistance line (blue line) and we already identified a bullish 60minute trend. Should price move back into the violated current trend’s channel, the probability will once again be bearish

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. As soon as the hourly indicators cross bearish, we will have a bearish trading condition on our hands

GBP/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. Bearish indicators with a bearish 60minute trend places this one in a bearish trading condition

GBP/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. Bearish indicators with a bearish 60minute trend places this one in a bearish trading condition. Just keep the 1.9620 support level (current trend support line, blue line) in mind as it IS significant

EUR/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. Bearish indicators with a bearish 60minute trend places this one in a bearish trading condition. The low of 162.20 might prove some support

EUR/GBP – Bearish Probability. Wait for the bearish crosses on the hourly indicators – especially the stoch – to be confirmed and then we will have a confirmed bearish trading condition as the previous bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside

USD/CHF – Bullish Trading Condition. As long as the indicators stay bullish and price trends within the bullish 60minute trend’s boundaries, the bullish condition stays intact

USD/CAD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. We cannot deem the CAD tradeable as price just cannot seem to violate the bullish Major Trend to the downside (orange line). On the other hand if price bounces on this Major trend support line once again and the bearish 60minute trend is violated to the upside, we will have a bullish probability on our hand once again

AUD/USD – Bullish Probability. The previous bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and a new bullish 60minute trend has been identified and the violation has been confirmed as well. As soon as the hourly indicators cross bullish, the AUD will be suitable for bullish trades