04 November Probability Studies – US voting begins!

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com

Today US citizens go to the voting stations to vote for the USA’s new president. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts as the election outcome unfolds during the next couple of days. So before I begin with the probability studies please keep a close eye on the election results and the market

On the economic front we have Eurozone PPI at 10am GMT which is a significant inflation gauge. A number lower than 8.00% can spark another selloff in euroland so make a note of this one

Probability Studies:

Although the EUR is situated in a no trade zone, the probability is still bearish and once I see a confirmed cross on the 1 hour fishing stoch the EUR will be suitable for shorts again.

If you look at the chart below you can see that the head and shoulders’ neckline has been violated and price might just as well be in the process of confirming this violation by finding resistance at the violated neckline from below at 1.2665

The target here is roundabout 1.2050..

Cable is still bearish. I am not too happy about the bearish cross on the stoch as it is not confirmed yet. A confirmed bearish 1 hour cross should give us ample shorting opportunities here. Be patient and you will be rewarded

The CHF is still bullish but as we can see the 1 hour stoch is bearish. Should market rhythm start to trend higher we can expect a bullish cross which in turn will open the valves for some bullish trades. We have swiss inflation in the form of CPI at 06:45 GMT so keep an eye on that as well. Otherwise the coast is clear

The JPY is still bullish as well – at least for as long as the bullish 60minute trend remains intact

98.40 is still significant support and a bounce here could present a bullish trading condition

Join me in the Live Trading Room and www.fxinstructor.com if you have any questions or if you need any updates on the latest stance of the markets from a probability study point of view

Have a good one!

JC Kriek