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August 29th, 2014 @ 8:06 am by Mark De La Paz

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Normally I do not believe that there is such a thing a a sure bet but when a central banks reputation is at stake then there is a lot on the line. While its true that a central bank is not all powerful nor is it infallible, recall George Soros and the Bank of England in the nineties, more than most players in the market it has the ability to consistently influence pries. And this take us to EURCHF, the open hostility between Russian forces and Ukraine’s security apparatus in rebel held territory has seen markets on the edge for risk aversion. This has meant that for the pair we have seen an acceleration of losses for the swiss franc. Yet the SNB has a standing commitment of a floor for the pair at 1.2000 and unlike the Soros / BoE tussle which saw the latter lose badly it is far more easier for a central bank to weaken a currency than to strengthen it. The latter needs credibility and actual demand by external parties to see a stronger currency. To weaken you need only resolve to print money ideally as inflation pressures are nil.

EURCHFWeekly

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August 29th, 2014 @ 5:54 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its major bearish bias so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Important intraday range to be closely watched is seen between 1.3220 – 1.3150. A clear break above 1.3220 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.3295. A clear break below 1.3150 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3100 before challenging 1.3000 psychological support. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

eurusdhourly

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August 29th, 2014 @ 5:50 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Important intraday range to be closely watched is seen between 1.6615. – 1.6535. A clear break above 1.6615 could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.6675 area. On the downside, we need a clear break below 1.6535 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.6500 – 1.6450. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

gbpusddaily

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August 29th, 2014 @ 5:41 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY had another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Important intraday range to be closely watched is seen between 104.25 – 103.35. A clear break and daily close above 104.25 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 105.43. On the other hand, a clear break and daily close below 103.35 could create a false breakout bearish scenario.

usdjpydaily

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August 29th, 2014 @ 5:34 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its major bullish bias. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase with nearest bullish target seen around 0.9250.  Immediate support is seen around 0.9125 followed by 0.9070.

usdchfdaily

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August 28th, 2014 @ 2:22 pm by Mark De La Paz

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Just a grab on the Ukraine story:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – Russia is no longer leading the fighting in Ukraine “from behind,” a senior military officer from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said Thursday. “It is more overt now,” the official told Dow Jones Newswires. NATO says Russia has “well over” 1,000 troops operating in Ukraine now, and Ukraine on Thursday accused Russia of having seized a coastal town and several villages near the border with Russia. “It is clear that Russia is not willing to accept the defeat of the separatists,” Dow Jones Newswires quoted the officer as saying. “It will most likely do anything it takes to prevent such a defeat.” Russia has said any Russians fighting with the separatists are volunteers, but the officer said these are organized fighters. “You can have a rabble of people holding guns, or you can have an effective fighting force. And what we have here is the latter,” the officer said. A U.S. diplomat on Thursday called Russian claims that it is not destabilizing Ukraine “absurd.”

Looks like e are building an exuse for Gold to make a run one the 61.8 Fib retracement of the sell off the pat two months, at 1317.51. Such a move would also mean we trigger a descending wedge with a classic resistance breakout. The question here really is just what will the west do? Any hints of additional support in the military front by Europe and the US would be just the catalyst that’s needed to get things moving.

 

XAUUSDDaily

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August 28th, 2014 @ 10:16 am by Mark De La Paz

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Ukrainian President Poroshenko has cancelled a trip to Turkey to meet with the country’ defense council. Coinciding with the Ukraine Government’s tweeting of Novoazovsk falling to separatist hands and previous reports of Russian troops inside the country this is now being describe as a ‘Russian Invasion’.

Knee jerk response has been broad based gains for the Japanese Yen and Swis Fran with the dollar also coming off its earlier lows. Still for us to get more the the daily averages we will need third party confirmation on these developments. Focus now will be for the more exposed majors EURJPY and GBPJPY though it would also be interesting to see what the SNB will do as pries near its floor of 1.2000 for EURCHF.

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August 28th, 2014 @ 5:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    

The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday and hit 1.3216 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term, probably with a little bullish bias testing 1.3250 – 1.3295, but any upside pullback now should be seen as a normal corrective movement and as long as stays inside the bearish channel I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Immediate support is seen around 1.3180. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3150 – 1.3100.

eurusdhourly

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